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News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition
- Thread starter ohioguy
- Start date
happycamperuni
Active Member
Comcast wants the Fox assets more than TimeWarner.
Fox assets include 30% of Hulu, 39% of Sky, Star India, and the RSNs.
Those are much more important for Comcast than Turner, HBO, and Warner Bros.
Fox assets include 30% of Hulu, 39% of Sky, Star India, and the RSNs.
Those are much more important for Comcast than Turner, HBO, and Warner Bros.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Well-Known Member
happycamperuni
Active Member
Yeah, I'd put Comcast as the heavy favorite to win the Fox assets. This AT&T-TW ruling is a clear greenlight to Comcast and the Murdochs that a Comcast bid should be able to pass muster.
The markets are judging this result as well with Fox stock up hugely after hours and Comcast down.
The markets are judging this result as well with Fox stock up hugely after hours and Comcast down.
Quinnmac000
Well-Known Member
Time Warner is much more valuable though for Korea China and Japan with their infrastructure there along with being all the additional properties they own. Plus they would full ownership of all those other assets that are shared between the two companies already (Flixster, Rotten Tomatoes, 10% of Hulu, and all the TV show rights)
Additionally WB has more content creation than Fox and already created franchises.
But yes at the price point its currently selling at, it may be slightly undervalued with certain assets being a steal for Comcast.
Stripes
Premium Member
If I'm Comcast this is an undeniably good ruling, but I think they would've expected Disney shares to move even lower than they did. This should set up an intense bidding war, and if I'm Bob Iger, I'm not retiring with a loss. Word is that Iger is a perfectionist and wants to leave Disney is the best shape possible.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Well-Known Member
Where are you reading that Time Warner is shopping around?
happycamperuni
Active Member
The only companies in the US that can outbid AT&T for TimeWarner are the tech giants like Apple or Amazon.
AT&T's current offer for TimeWarner is worth around $100+ billion including assumed debt. I don't see how anybody but Apple or Amazon could get into a bidding war with them.
Disney and Comcast can't outbid AT&T. They'll have to focus on the Fox (and Sky) bidding war.
AT&T's current offer for TimeWarner is worth around $100+ billion including assumed debt. I don't see how anybody but Apple or Amazon could get into a bidding war with them.
Disney and Comcast can't outbid AT&T. They'll have to focus on the Fox (and Sky) bidding war.
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
They could buy TW if they sold or spun off/recombine assets.
Looks like 21CF is going to be the one that got a way from Bob. Brian Roberts is very motivated on getting 21CF and he has the cash on hand to do it, unlike TWDC.
So... what now for DIS? With net neutrality gone, ya gotta think that AT&T will favor WB/HBO productions, Comcast is now more likely to get FOX, so they'll favor FOX/Universal productions, and who will champion the biggest studio company? Movie houses are going by the wayside, so who will distribute the Disney content?
AAPL, maybe? I doubt Verizon wants in on this, they seem content to want to be the leaders in wireless technology.
I just don't see DIS staying independent here.... there's just too much risk in a post-net neutrality world.
AAPL, maybe? I doubt Verizon wants in on this, they seem content to want to be the leaders in wireless technology.
I just don't see DIS staying independent here.... there's just too much risk in a post-net neutrality world.
happycamperuni
Active Member
That's a fair point; though I'd guess that the TimeWarner leadership wants to close their AT&T merger as fast as possible.
Another bid from somebody else would result in a 6-12 month longer timetable to get anti-trust approval, and their executives all have golden parachutes that cash in when the AT&T merger closes (which can happen in the next 7 days now since the judge said he won't issue a stay if the government tries to appeal).
I think AT&T-TW is 99.9% done. Only way it doesn't happen is if Apple comes in and says they'll pay $120 billion in cash (and assumed debt) this week, and I don't see that happening.
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HauntedMansionFLA
Well-Known Member
Will Comcast go after both Fox and Time Warner?
Stripes
Premium Member
Nope. They'll continue to go hard for Fox, imo.
Edit: I'll also note that AT&T is already massively overpaying for Time Warner. Raising the price any higher would be ludicrous.
Iger's legacy is at risk here. He's going to go all in to stay ahead in this deal.
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The Senate voted to approve the CRA strike down of the FCC's decision. The House still has yet to vote. Of course, it'll be a rough road to get there, but it might happen. The real problem and stumbling block would be Trump signing it.
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
Hating your tv/internet/cellular provider is still bipartisan, right?
happycamperuni
Active Member
Disney and Iger will stay in the hunt, but the question is how do they match a Comcast all-cash bid in the $60+ billion range?
Every $5-10 billion in cash that Disney adds will result in a fall in their stock price, thus decreasing the value of their bid. Eventually, Fox shareholders will prefer an all-cash bid, and I don't see why Disney shareholders would want to overspend here.
Comcast needs the Fox assets more than Disney (because Disney has much stronger content properties and has enough sports rights and content to create strong streaming services). Comcast doesn't have that since NBCU is much smaller than Disney.
Every $5-10 billion in cash that Disney adds will result in a fall in their stock price, thus decreasing the value of their bid. Eventually, Fox shareholders will prefer an all-cash bid, and I don't see why Disney shareholders would want to overspend here.
Comcast needs the Fox assets more than Disney (because Disney has much stronger content properties and has enough sports rights and content to create strong streaming services). Comcast doesn't have that since NBCU is much smaller than Disney.
Oh, of course. Comcast are the best that fits our household, but they truly are the worst, especially in how they respond to our queries or are always late for appointments. Basically it's something we learn to tolerate, at best. And hopefully, the House takes action before they take the opportunity to screw us over. You can tell they're waiting, so they can say "see, it's all over and the sky didn't fall! It's nothing to worry about!", then incrementally do their devious tricks to throttle speeds and sites and raise rates. This shouldn't be a partisan issue whatsoever. This is something both parties should see face to face on.
And I also doubt that Iger hasn't prepared for Comcast to begin a bidding war, especially with the AT&T-Time Warner deal. He's clearly got a war chest ready for this event and is going to walk off with the Fox assets.
Murdoch wants Disney because it gives them (The Murdochs)an in and possible line of succession at TWDC.
21CF shareholders want the cash. The problem is 21CF has a dual class of shareholders. Most of the shareholders are class A with no voting rights. The Murdochs control 39% of the class B voting shares and effectively maintain control of the company. However if he ignores the higher offer, he risks a shareholder fight and revolt which could hurt the company.
Comcast has more cash to offer and can and will out match TWDC because Brian Roberts is seemingly obsessed with blocking TWDC. Interestingly TWDC has started to sell of assets for cash (NYC ABC campus) so it looks likes its going to be an interesting bidding war.
Who will win out? (Spoiler Alert: It’s Rupert Murdoch)