News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[kurtk]

Marvel theme park rights were never a consideration, beyond fanboi dreams.

The physical cost to Disney is inordinate for the value, they are not going to pay for a competitor's retheme of an entire land, when they have barely established any willingness to use Marvel in the parks they do have the rights to. The thought process that they would somehow get a massive discount in a bargaining package continues to be made up nonsense. It's not a yard sale.

Nevermind the pure treasure trove of product Disney can mine in WDW and has yet to do so.

DCA remains stop and go and beyond indecisive.

So no, no opportunity was "lost". We just finally established what I've been yammering on about for the last year. This was never a thing that was happening. When and if Disney actually wants it, they will give cash for it and a too large sum at that. Which means probably never, it just is not worth the price.

Well even fanboi's can have dreams. It is Disney after all;-)

Thanks for answer though. I guess part of it is also a gamble for Disney even if they were somehow to get the rights. By the time they had the rights, who know how popular the Marvel franchise might be. Could have been a huge investment for not much gain.

 

[Rodan75]

Marvel theme park rights were never a consideration, beyond fanboi dreams.

The physical cost to Disney is inordinate for the value, they are not going to pay for a competitor's retheme of an entire land, when they have barely established any willingness to use Marvel in the parks they do have the rights to. The thought process that they would somehow get a massive discount in a bargaining package continues to be made up nonsense. It's not a yard sale.

Nevermind the pure treasure trove of product Disney can mine in WDW and has yet to do so.

DCA remains stop and go and beyond indecisive.

So no, no opportunity was "lost". We just finally established what I've been yammering on about for the last year. This was never a thing that was happening. When and if Disney actually wants it, they will give cash for it and a too large sum at that. Which means probably never, it just is not worth the price.

The point of the Bioreconstruct tweet was that there was no opportunity lost, because it wasn't legal to add additional conditions to the sale of the SKY transaction once the bidding was complete...and even if it was legal, Comcast could have just gotten the majority and forced FOX to sell their stake like what is happening right now with the remaining 20%. (Which is the same strategy Disney used with DLP).

Most of us realized that was going to be the case as the bidding got close, that there was no legal way to tie the transactions together...what many of us (or at least me) didn't realize is that at some point in the transaction, all of the current shareholders would be forced to sell their stake.

 

[Crossfire]

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but does it says here that Oct 19 is the deadline for the review of the Disney-Fox by the Chinese regulators?

A number of global deals involving American companies are under review by Chinese market regulators. Among the biggest is Walt Disney Company’s $71 billion acquisition of 21st Century Fox, which has an Oct. 19 deadline.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/business/china-trade-deals-retaliate.html

 

[Rodan75]

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but does it says here that Oct 19 is the deadline for the review of the Disney-Fox by the Chinese regulators?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/business/china-trade-deals-retaliate.html

That is how I read it as well. I think Disney-Fox will pass China, but that they may give a firm quota on the number of Disney films allowed to be released there each year, in addition to the normal foreign cap.

 

[Lafayettecalboy]

What assets or anything else do Disney and Fox have in China that requires their approval? Also, my first post here and I am a long time lurker.

 

[bartholomr4]

That is how I read it as well. I think Disney-Fox will pass China, but that they may give a firm quota on the number of Disney films allowed to be released there each year, in addition to the normal foreign cap.

Also next week (I think either the 15th or 16th) we should hear from the European Union.... They can approve, or deny, or state they want a 90 day in-depth study.... The sale of the 39% of Sky to Comcast will make this much easier....

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Marvel theme park rights were never a consideration, beyond fanboi dreams.

The physical cost to Disney is inordinate for the value, they are not going to pay for a competitor's retheme of an entire land, when they have barely established any willingness to use Marvel in the parks they do have the rights to. The thought process that they would somehow get a massive discount in a bargaining package continues to be made up nonsense. It's not a yard sale.

Nevermind the pure treasure trove of product Disney can mine in WDW and has yet to do so.

DCA remains stop and go and beyond indecisive.

So no, no opportunity was "lost". We just finally established what I've been yammering on about for the last year. This was never a thing that was happening. When and if Disney actually wants it, they will give cash for it and a too large sum at that. Which means probably never, it just is not worth the price.

I can only speak for myself, but Iger himself has said when asked about theme park rights in Orlando some years back either at a stockholder meeting or one of the Quarterly meetings that they haven't met with Roberts and Comcast yet, but it was possible in the future. I thought the opportunity was there because I didn't know the rule in the UK that prevented such a thing. I still believe the opportunity is there if the parties involved want to clean up ownership of Hulu (Disney either buying the other parties out or selling their shares or all three parties selling to an independent buyer). If Disney execs and Comcast execs are going to sit down to solve that issue any outstanding rights - including Marvel rights - will come up. You are right and I've said all along that these rights are small potatoes compared to everything else. Nice to have, but not a must have.

As far as fanboy wishes? Yes. Comcast can't really build new rides without Marvel's approval in Orlando and only upgrade the current ones. So X-Men and FF are stuck with those COTS rides forever.

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but does it says here that Oct 19 is the deadline for the review of the Disney-Fox by the Chinese regulators?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/business/china-trade-deals-retaliate.html

Oct 19th is the date set for the EU's decision on the matter, so I believe the author is confused and this is a typo. We haven't heard anywhere else about this.

Also next week (I think either the 15th or 16th) we should hear from the European Union.... They can approve, or deny, or state they want a 90 day in-depth study.... The sale of the 39% of Sky to Comcast will make this much easier....

Oct 19th and the can request a 4 month in depth study.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...id-for-fox-assets-by-october-19-idUSKCN1LX0Z3

Disney sought EU approval for the deal on Sept. 14, according to a filing on the EU competition website. It can either clear the deal with or without concessions or open a four-month long investigation if it has serious concerns.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney has an almost statistical nill chance of ever wanting to negotiate for theme park rights for marvel characters...

For about 100 well documented reasons...but only the first 2 or 3 even matter

 

[MisterPenguin]

Comcast can't really build new rides without Marvel's approval in Orlando and only upgrade the current ones.

That's not exactly the case. They can build new attractions for the characters they currently have access to. But it has to be the characters as they appear in the comics, not the MCU versions.

 

[BrianLo]

s far as fanboy wishes? Yes. Comcast can't really build new rides without Marvel's approval in Orlando and only upgrade the current ones. So X-Men and FF are stuck with those COTS rides forever.

What @MisterPenguin said. They are free to build as much Marvel as they want within the licenses they have the rights to. What they don't have the rights to is the Marvel Cinematic Universe likeness.

The only deal I ever see being made is some further sequestration of a few properties ala Guardians with Universal's gain being access to MCU-likeness. Something like Black Panther/Wakanda for Disney if Universal can build a proper MCU Avengers ride.

Otherwise there is no way Comcast would be motivated to part with it. It costs them peanuts and let's be realistic, Universal isn't the bastion owner of in-house great theme park material. Especially when they are double or triple dipping to come up with enough product for a third theme park.

Frankly I think both companies are squandering the license.

 

[smile]

Some of us thought Disney would extract the Hulu and Marvel rights, but it turns out extracting the highest premium was the strategy.....

 

[seascape]

Universal has spent much more on the Simpson's than they have on Marvel. The Simpson's land in California is bigger and better than the one in Orlando. Disney now gets all the financial information from that park too and any other park Universal puts the Simpson's in. Therefore it is Comcast's interest to reach an agreement on that license which opens up all issues with the parks.

 

[bartholomr4]

Universal has spent much more on the Simpson's than they have on Marvel. The Simpson's land in California is bigger and better than the one in Orlando. Disney now gets all the financial information from that park too and any other park Universal puts the Simpson's in. Therefore it is Comcast's interest to reach an agreement on that license which opens up all issues with the parks.

I wonder if the "licensing agreement" between Universal and 21CF is more favorable (to 21CF) than the original Marvel / MCA agreement. You gotta believe Rupert M negotiated a more favorable license agreement, which is now the property of Disney..... Does the 21CF/ Universal agreement contain exclusivity clauses, and what if Disney wants to put them in any of its parks? Any body know?

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I wonder if the "licensing agreement" between Universal and 21CF is more favorable (to 21CF) than the original Marvel / MCA agreement. You gotta believe Rupert M negotiated a more favorable license agreement, which is now the property of Disney..... Does the 21CF/ Universal agreement contain exclusivity clauses, and what if Disney wants to put them in any of its parks? Any body know?

I don't think that's publicly available. I would think it's more similar to the Harry Potter contract than it is to the Marvel one though.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Universal has spent much more on the Simpson's than they have on Marvel. The Simpson's land in California is bigger and better than the one in Orlando. Disney now gets all the financial information from that park too and any other park Universal puts the Simpson's in. Therefore it is Comcast's interest to reach an agreement on that license which opens up all issues with the parks.

You’re dreaming on this one.

Neither of them wants a change to that deal.

Why would they? They both are making huge cash and free advertising off each other?

Competition is usually good for business...why are Lowe’s and home
Depot across the street from each other?

Good for business

 

[Rodan75]

Universal has spent much more on the Simpson's than they have on Marvel. The Simpson's land in California is bigger and better than the one in Orlando. Disney now gets all the financial information from that park too and any other park Universal puts the Simpson's in. Therefore it is Comcast's interest to reach an agreement on that license which opens up all issues with the parks.

Interesting point and a potential for new opportunity. As we get further into this, it does become less likely that Disney will negotiate for the remaining Marvel rights. Those Simpson’s rights (when they come up for negotiation) and Hulu are two of the only remaining opportunities. And neither of those are likely to be big enough to loop in the Marvel rights.

The Disney-Fox-Sky-Comcast power play was probably the last real opportunity to get those rights back. And it looks like it wouldn’t have been appropriate (and / or legal) at any point to have negotiations between Disney and Comcast about anything regarding Fox or Sky.

I know this is where we started. It just is very odd that Disney doesn’t have the ability to use one its most powerful brand names in the Parks. The FL park ban seems less of an issue.

 

[Maeryk]

What @MisterPenguin said. They are free to build as much Marvel as they want within the licenses they have the rights to. What they don't have the rights to is the Marvel Cinematic Universe likeness.

The only deal I ever see being made is some further sequestration of a few properties ala Guardians with Universal's gain being access to MCU-likeness. Something like Black Panther/Wakanda for Disney if Universal can build a proper MCU Avengers ride.

Otherwise there is no way Comcast would be motivated to part with it. It costs them peanuts and let's be realistic, Universal isn't the bastion owner of in-house great theme park material. Especially when they are double or triple dipping to come up with enough product for a third theme park.

Frankly I think both companies are squandering the license.

As far as I know, TDO has rights to much of the Guardians MCU characters, _except_ Drax, who was an avenger related character in the comics. This is why you got a Star Lord and Gamora dance party in Epcot, for example (I think it was Epcot?) but no Drax, and why Rocket, Groot, etc are on the concept art for the coaster, but again, no Drax.

 

[Maeryk]

Interesting point and a potential for new opportunity. As we get further into this, it does become less likely that Disney will negotiate for the remaining Marvel rights. Those Simpson’s rights (when they come up for negotiation) and Hulu are two of the only remaining opportunities. And neither of those are likely to be big enough to loop in the Marvel rights.

The Disney-Fox-Sky-Comcast power play was probably the last real opportunity to get those rights back. And it looks like it wouldn’t have been appropriate (and / or legal) at any point to have negotiations between Disney and Comcast about anything regarding Fox or Sky.

I know this is where we started. It just is very odd that Disney doesn’t have the ability to use one its most powerful brand names in the Parks. The FL park ban seems less of an issue.

It's a pretty straightforward contract, and doesn't really have an "out" unless Universal fails to keep their rides/IPs open per the contract. It has no sunset, and it's a "forever" type deal. Disney doesn't really HAVE any leverage to throw that into the pot when negotiating, unfortunately.

The only way I see them getting it is if Universal simply loses interest and lets its properties languish, or if Disney comes across with a ridiculously huge sum of money and convinces them. The former is less likely than the latter, _if_ Disney wants to run with the MCU stuff in the parks in the East. They might not want to.

 

[BrianLo]

As far as I know, TDO has rights to much of the Guardians MCU characters, _except_ Drax, who was an avenger related character in the comics. This is why you got a Star Lord and Gamora dance party in Epcot, for example (I think it was Epcot?) but no Drax, and why Rocket, Groot, etc are on the concept art for the coaster, but again, no Drax.

Sorry that was not worded very well. I meant they would sequester more things that they do not currently have the rights to and Comcast does (but are not using), in exchange for MCU likeness for the Avengers in particular. Guardians being an example of what Disney already had.

I mostly look towards Black Panther. There is no real value in Universal just sitting on it with a solitary photo on a cafeteria wall. But apparently they are content in doing just that for the time being.

 

[bartholomr4]

Sorry that was not worded very well. I meant they would sequester more things that they do not currently have the rights to and Comcast does (but are not using), in exchange for MCU likeness for the Avengers in particular. Guardians being an example of what Disney already had.

I mostly look towards Black Panther. There is no real value in Universal just sitting on it with a solitary photo on a cafeteria wall. But apparently they are content in doing just that for the time being.

Disney does gain one more item to negotiate (I think).... Fox was the distributor for all movies made by Dreamworks Animation created between 2012 and 2017. Disney will continue to take a portion of the revenue generated from cable / streaming for these films even though they are owned now by Universal / Comcast..... Probably not a huge sum relative to Disney's total revenue, but I am thinking something Universal may choose to trade for someday.