News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[Rodan75]

I think Disney needs Hulu and those boards seats because I don't think Disney standalone service in the long term will be as successful as they think even if they include Fox's library.

I think Disney learned from CBS All access the dangers of putting all your eggs in one basket and then later having to push deals out for your product to be shown elsewhere.

That's why Disney is seemingly changing course to making the streaming service the sole home for Disney properties and still willing to spread it out.

I’m not sure that anyone thinks CBS put more than one egg barely in the CBS All Access bucket. ESPN+’s progress has been significant and may give Disney confidence to go it alone.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Comcast will not give up their 30% of Hulu. Jeff Shell made that clear at a conference a week ago after he got his board seat. Ever since Disney decided not to play nice and possibly split assets in the Fox Deal, Brian will make this as brutal for them as possible.

I need a link so I can hear or read this myself to make sure I get the whole context.

Roberts, try as he might, already failed once, but he did make it brutal for Disney as Disney will have to pay $19B more. This is a win win for Disney no matter how one tries to slice it. If they win at 15-16, then they pay a bit of a premium for a very attractive product (they are on the hook now for 14). If Comcast overpays at 17-18+ then Disney gets overpaid for their 39% and return the favor that Comcast did them earlier this year. 39% of Comcast, even at Comcast's current bid is worth more than 4 times the 30% of Hulu.

Also , Disney could not split the assets of Fox at that time. It was brought up, talked about, and discovered that they couldn't do to the signing they had with Fox for those assets from December 2017. I don't know what you're talking about there. You've been following this for awhile and should know that.

I think Disney needs Hulu and those boards seats because I don't think Disney standalone service in the long term will be as successful as WDAS hopes.

I think Disney learned from CBS All access the dangers of putting all your eggs in one basket and then later having to push deals out for your product to be shown elsewhere.

That's why Disney is seemingly changing course to making the streaming service the sole home for Disney kid properties and still willing to spread it out.

Disney's content is significantly more attractive than CBS', even before including Pixar, Marvel, Lucas, and Fox. It's a poor comparison at best. Iger himself has said that they would be releasing the streaming service regardless of the acquisition. Hulu is coming into play because 1) People should be bullish on it, 2) Disney will have majority, 3) Disney saw a place where they can put hard PG-13 and R rated content (i.e. some Fox, Touchstone, Hollywood, Marvel films and TV shows).

 

[mab7689]

Today's the day Sky gets settled. The article about the auction on the Sky News app says that the winner should be revealed around 8pm UK time.

 

[Ripken10]

Today's the day Sky gets settled. The article about the auction on the Sky News app says that the winner should be revealed around 8pm UK time.

Officially we may not know till October 11th. The auction is today, but Sky shareholders do not have to decide till October 11th - if it comes to that. I would say chances are likely we don't find out who "win's" till October. As a Disney "fan" I am not sure which outcome I am hoping for. I see 2 out of 3 outcomes being beneficial to Disney, so it is likely the 3rd option that will result.

 

[mab7689]

Officially we may not know till October 11th. The auction is today, but Sky shareholders do not have to decide till October 11th - if it comes to that. I would say chances are likely we don't find out who "win's" till October. As a Disney "fan" I am not sure which outcome I am hoping for. I see 2 out of 3 outcomes being beneficial to Disney, so it is likely the 3rd option that will result.

I see your point. Perhaps I should have said 'the details of the bids'. It's probably reported as 'winner' by extension on the assumption one will. Obviously if the final bids are matching or close it will go down to whatever shareholders favour.

 

[Indy_UK]

I think we'll find out today

 

[monothingie]

Looks like Comcast is going to get control of Sky having outbid Fox. Major setback for TWDC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/22/sky-comcast-fox-36-billion-takeover-auction.html

 

[mab7689]

It looks like Comcast have won

 

[monothingie]

Comcast has been quite shrewd so far, forcing the TWDC pay a substantial premium for 21CF over its current value, especially with the loss of Sky.

Comcast gets what it wanted, while Disney pays significantly more for 2/3 of what they wanted.

 

[happycamperuni]

Well now Iger and Roberts have some things to talk about:

Disney controls 39% of Sky (from Fox) as well as 60% of Hulu.

Comcast will control 51+% of Sky and 30% of Hulu.


Could we see some trading soon? Disney's 39% of Sky for 30% of Hulu and cash and maybe some minor rights (like Hulk distribution)?

 

[WDWBigEd]

Just remember Comcast may still not win. They won the bid but Stockholders for Sky still have to vote on which bid to take. I know it seems silly to not take the most money you can, but crazier things have happened.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Can we ease up on the cutbacks now?

 

[happycamperuni]

Just remember Comcast may still not win. They won the bid but Stockholders for Sky still have to vote on which bid to take. I know it seems silly to not take the most money you can, but crazier things have happened.

17.28 per share is a crazy number; Comcast will get 55+% of the shares outstanding (out of the overall 61%) probably with an offer that big.

I honestly didn't think anybody would go over 16.50...

In some sense this is best for Disney probably; if Disney had paid $40 billion with an offer over 17.50 pounds per share, that would be an extra $50 billion in total debt along with the $36 billion coming from the Fox purchase.

 

[asianway]

Well now Iger and Roberts have some things to talk about:

Disney controls 39% of Sky (from Fox) as well as 60% of Hulu.

Comcast will control 51+% of Sky and 30% of Hulu.


Could we see some trading soon? Disney's 39% of Sky for 30% of Hulu and cash and maybe some minor rights (like Hulk distribution)?

This sounds like a bad trade someone would call in to suggest on afternoon sports radio

 

[Rodan75]

That Fox bid of 15.67 really feels like Iger baited Roberts to overbid. Everyone was expecting 16 at least. Bidding below the current stock price, implies Fox didn’t want to win.

The narrative that Fox-Disney lost today seems misguided. As others have stated. Iger now gets more money to invest in content, marketing for Disney ‘Play’ and the Parks. And they get another opening to figure out Hulu and other stuff with the decision to sell SKY.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Comcast has been quite shrewd so far, forcing the TWDC pay a substantial premium for 21CF over its current value, especially with the loss of Sky.

Comcast gets what it wanted, while Disney pays significantly more for 2/3 of what they wanted.

Lolwut? Disney got the piece they wanted and forced Comcast to SEVERELY overpay for the thing Disney didn't want in the first place.

 

[KrazyKat]

I seriously appreciate you all breaking down and explaining a lot about this deal that would otherwise go right over my head.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

That Fox bid of 15.67 really feels like Iger baited Roberts to overbid. Everyone was expecting 16 at least. Bidding below the current stock price, implies Fox didn’t want to win.

The narrative that Fox-Disney lost today seems misguided. As others have stated. Iger now gets more money to invest in content, marketing for Disney ‘Play’ and the Parks. And they get another opening to figure out Hulu and other stuff with the decision to sell SKY.

Minor point, but I think the branding "Disney Play" has since been refuted.

 

[happycamperuni]

That Fox bid of 15.67 really feels like Iger baited Roberts to overbid. Everyone was expecting 16 at least. Bidding below the current stock price, implies Fox didn’t want to win.

The narrative that Fox-Disney lost today seems misguided. As others have stated. Iger now gets more money to invest in content, marketing for Disney ‘Play’ and the Parks. And they get another opening to figure out Hulu and other stuff with the decision to sell SKY.

Yeah Disney has spent the last 10-15 years as a very low-debt, risk-averse company that makes calculated bids (and rarely makes large cash-heavy offers).

Disney bidding below 16 tells me they didn't plan on winning Sky because they knew Comcast would go over 16.

Disney would have gone from $30 billion debt to around $120 billion in debt if they had tried to actually win Sky with a big bid over 17. Iger walked away from this one because he didn't see the value there...