Disney’s Q3 FY23 Earnings Results Webcast

[mikejs78]

DIS is still up today.

Dead cat bounce + inflation report.

It won't last.

Not how it's being reported....

Walt Disney rises as Wall Street sees Q3 results, guidance as 'turning point'

Walt Disney (DIS) shares gained nearly 5% on Thursday after the media and entertainment giant reported third-quarter results. Read for more.

seekingalpha.com

Get Ready for a Rebound in Disney (DIS) Stock

Disney may have lost Disney+ subscribers in the third quarter, but other signs are pointing to a rebound in DIS stock.

investorplace.com

Disney (DIS) Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y

Disney's (DIS) third-quarter fiscal 2023 results reflect a solid revival in the domestic and international theme park businesses.

www.zacks.com

I wonder this also, D+ is coming up on 5 years old, I’d think most who are interested would have subscribed by now. There will be some small gains and losses as people come and go but I don’t think they’re going to see tens of millions suddenly jumping on board after sitting out the last 5 years.

Price increases look to be their only path to profitability, now they are in the balancing game, finding the sweet spot most people will pay without losing too many in the process.

Advertising is another area of potential growth. There's also up selling current customers.

As far as subscriber growth, as it exists today you're right. But there is more they can do if they decide to offer different kinds of content, especially with a combined D+/Hulu.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Tried to keep up, but I think I missed it. Has Disney said how they plan to pay for Hulu? Will the purchase cost come from some arbitration hearing? I assume they'll dilute the shares and borrow the rest? What will the supposed dividend said to come this year be? One third of a penny?

I've heard the Hulu price range is 9 Billion to 30 Billion. Most say it will go for 20 Billion. Don't know where that will come from, but I'm not a finance guy.

I did notice that Shanghai, Hong Kong, Paris and Disneyland were mentioned but WDW wasn't.

Hulu is worth $27B in total.

Comcast owns 1/3 of it, approximately $9B. So, that should be the selling price.

Disney has $11B in the bank and easy access to another $10B in credit.

There is no concern that Disney can't afford it. Even if they took the loan, their $45B in debt becomes $54B. Which is OK for a company their size. For comparison, Comcast has $100B in debt.

Disney and Comcast will haggle over the sales price. If they don't agree, it will go to arbitration. I doubt any arbiter would look kindly on Comcast in how Comcast pulled their content out of Hulu while Disney kept feeding it.

 

[orky8]

I would pay $4 or $5/month for access to an ad free "Disney Classic Movie Vault". No need to spend millions on new content. Just keeps the servers up. I canceled a while back because I'm not into series so much. Now I'm back to watching my DVD's.

Agree - Disney+ should have been Disney's answer to the decline of DVDs, not their answer to the streaming wars and decline of cable.

 

[MisterPenguin]

20 Pages into this thread and I'm too lazy to read, so does anyone know if Disney is out of business yet?

I'm sure it is. I read it as one of this forum's thread titles!!

 

[mikejs78]

• Disney+ total subscriptions: 151.1 million expected, according to StreetAccount

That's 6+M Lost subscribers.
WSJ has a (2M) Subscriber loss.

Q2 total subscriptions was 157+M

The subscriber number is the only number that matters.

This post aged well.

 

[monothingie]

Hulu is worth $27B in total.

Comcast owns 1/3 of it, approximately $9B. So, that should be the selling price.

Disney has $11B in the bank and easy access to another $10B in credit.

There is no concern that Disney can't afford it. Even if they took the loan, their $45B in debt becomes $54B. Which is OK for a company their size. For comparison, Comcast has $100B in debt.

Disney and Comcast will haggle over the sales price. If they don't agree, it will go to arbitration. I doubt any arbiter would look kindly on Comcast in how Comcast pulled their content out of Hulu while Disney kept feeding it.

The current minimum price that Disney is obligated to pay is $9B, regardless of the actual worth of Hulu. Analyst estimates have valued Hulu being worth up to $60B, making Disney responsible for 1/3 of that.

Yes Disney has no problem affording Hulu, they can look under Walt's couch and find a couple of billion and borrow the rest. I believe it already is in arbitration.

The danger for Disney is vastly overpaying for a service which they are ultimately just going to shutter and fold into D+.

 

[monothingie]

This post aged well.

Yes, they wound up loosing a little more than double what was estimated.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

I wonder this also, D+ is coming up on 5 years old, I’d think most who are interested would have subscribed by now. There will be some small gains and losses as people come and go but I don’t think they’re going to see tens of millions suddenly jumping on board after sitting out the last 5 years.

Price increases look to be their only path to profitability, now they are in the balancing game, finding the sweet spot most people will pay without losing too many in the process.

Maybe the password sharing crackdown Bob spoke of will be a sizable boost in subs. Who knows.

 

[mikejs78]

Yes, they wound up loosing a little more than double what was estimated.

But their stock went up, and most analysts are stating the move toward profitability being the reason. You said sub counts were the only thing that mattered.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

You said sub counts were the only thing that mattered.

That’s also what Disney said until they said the opposite. Lol.

Same argument with the parks “attendance doesn’t matter” until we say it does! Lol

 

[mikejs78]

That’s also what Disney said until they said the opposite. Lol.

Same argument with the parks “attendance doesn’t matter” until we say it does! Lol

Meh, not really. It wasn't just Disney. The whole industry said sub counts were the only thing that mattered. Then in the 2nd half of 2022, Wall Street changed it's mind and said profitability was what mattered.

 

[Willmark]

I wouldn’t put too much into todays stock it’s going to matter down the road. Disney was “lucky” that the hits of the studio losses got split over Q3 and Q4.

Problem is if the reports of shuttering resorts continues that indicates slackening demand for the parks.

In other words the worst is (potentially) yet to come.

And this is assuming no other outside economic factors. Is inflation already priced in? Maybe?

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

I think Disney should just open mini-Disney stores in every Target across the country. The money would be rolling in. Problem solved.

 

[Slpy3270]

Not how it's being reported....

Walt Disney rises as Wall Street sees Q3 results, guidance as 'turning point'

Walt Disney (DIS) shares gained nearly 5% on Thursday after the media and entertainment giant reported third-quarter results. Read for more.

seekingalpha.com

Get Ready for a Rebound in Disney (DIS) Stock

Disney may have lost Disney+ subscribers in the third quarter, but other signs are pointing to a rebound in DIS stock.

investorplace.com

Disney (DIS) Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y

Disney's (DIS) third-quarter fiscal 2023 results reflect a solid revival in the domestic and international theme park businesses.

www.zacks.com

Advertising is another area of potential growth. There's also up selling current customers.

As far as subscriber growth, as it exists today you're right. But there is more they can do if they decide to offer different kinds of content, especially with a combined D+/Hulu.

Cahall being Cahall as usual (this is the same guy who said Paramount was likely to exit its NFL deal early, which...lol).

 

[FigmentFan82]

I just don’t think Disney+ will work out.

I’m probably wrong, but I just can’t see the value in it being maintained. They’re cutting content, cutting production costs, increasing the price, and adding ads. Right now, there’s not enough new content to keep my wife and me engaged - we don’t have kids. The problem is, we paid a year up front because I thought it would improve and wanted to hedge against price increases, now I’m stuck paying for it. Probably not going to continue it when it expires.

Sure, subscribers increased despite price increases up to this point. I’m just not convinced it can be maintained.

I also see this as being in direct competition to their feature film business.

I’m just one person though, don’t really fault anyone else for seeing value in it. If they end up going the route of Apple TV, where they have a steady stream of high quality content, then I could probably get back on board.

Right now, the only stand out shows I want more of on D+ are monsters at work and Andor. I liked those, but not enough to subscribe.

D+ ain't going anywhere. You ain't the target audience. Families with kids are. D+ is on at my house every day. D+ will be just fine

 

[Willmark]

D+ ain't going anywhere. You ain't the target audience. Families with kids are. D+ is on at my house every day. D+ will be just fine

D+ is the right long term answer IMO (at least directionally), the question is how much pain to get there?

It’s delivering media right to a person’s couch. That’s not revolutionary (duh, right?) it’s simply a segment of consumers want it and it’s a simple way to do it.

 

[Drdcm]

D+ ain't going anywhere. You ain't the target audience. Families with kids are. D+ is on at my house every day. D+ will be just fine

Maybe Never said I was the target. I just laid out why I feel it is a bad value for us. You’re welcome to find value in it yourself. You do you.

.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

D+ ain't going anywhere. You ain't the target audience. Families with kids are. D+ is on at my house every day. D+ will be just fine

If you’re a subscriber and I’m a subscriber then we are BOTH the target audience.

Disney doesn’t care about your kids, just your $$$ lol.

 

[Disstevefan1]

If they can get to a point where D+ loses only 100m a quarter they will be doing better than their movie business and will be worth keeping

 

[doctornick]

I wonder this also, D+ is coming up on 5 years old, I’d think most who are interested would have subscribed by now. There will be some small gains and losses as people come and go but I don’t think they’re going to see tens of millions suddenly jumping on board after sitting out the last 5 years.

Price increases look to be their only path to profitability, now they are in the balancing game, finding the sweet spot most people will pay without losing too many in the process.

There's potentially some additional countries to add (including ones that Netflix is in but D+ is not) potentially in upcoming years. Also, eventually bringing Russia back into the folks and even China (which has been resistant to outside streamers).