Disney’s Q2 FY24 Earnings Results Webcast

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.

I mean ultimately the strategy is to find the right mix of addictive content to prevent cancellations, and then keep raising prices.

That’s what Netflix did. It took many, many years, and setting billions on fire. But it did, eventually, work out for them.

And I actually think it will, eventually, work out for Disney too. And NBCU, for that matter.
 

doctornick

Well-Known Member
I mean ultimately the strategy is to find the right mix of addictive content to prevent cancellations, and then keep raising prices.

That’s what Netflix did. It took many, many years, and setting billions on fire. But it did, eventually, work out for them.

And I actually think it will, eventually, work out for Disney too. And NBCU, for that matter.

Right. Especially since people will want to watch something. If every single linear network and streaming service went under and stopped, people would be at a loss for entertainment and something would fill the void. I would certainly expect some consolidation and/or attrition of services, but that will have the benefit of making the surviving services stronger since more people will watch the best options on them due to fewer choices.

Disney's main issue now is that they need some "hits" that aren't tied to existing franchises. There's been some stuff on Hulu that hits that bill but they need more such content (and, to be fair, the same could be said for virtually every service).
 

HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
I mean ultimately the strategy is to find the right mix of addictive content to prevent cancellations, and then keep raising prices.

That’s what Netflix did. It took many, many years, and setting billions on fire. But it did, eventually, work out for them.

And I actually think it will, eventually, work out for Disney too. And NBCU, for that matter.
Ultimately I think you'll be proven right. I just wonder how long, how many billions on content will be burned, and how many new leaders it will take to course-correct what often feels like a errant ship.
 

doctornick

Well-Known Member
Ultimately I think you'll be proven right. I just wonder how long, how many billions on content will be burned, and how many new leaders it will take to course-correct what often feels like a errant ship.

I think referring to the money spent as being "burned" is specious, since the streaming service itself has an intrinsic value that has been built up. If Disney decided today to just outright sell Disney+, they would almost certainly be able to make up all of the money that they have "lost" in operational losses. Someone would surely be willing to pay (say) $10-15B for Disney+ on the free market
 

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Ultimately I think you'll be proven right. I just wonder how long, how many billions on content will be burned, and how many new leaders it will take to course-correct what often feels like an errant ship.
Disney already has 2 huge advantages over the other newer streamers - they have can’t-cancel children’s content (Bluey, most of the Disney Jr shoes, Moana) and they have an learnt understanding of what successfully makes them hits. Paramount Plus hasn’t had a real hit. Peacock has had just a couple minor hits. Apple TV has had 1 hit. MAX hasn’t had a hit that wasn’t HBO content first. Disney Plus has had Star Wars hits, Marvel hits, and a scattering of minor hits, plus Hulu has had stand alone hits like Only Murders. So they have a decent institution knowledge built up of what works and how to make things work. Not to where Netflix has theirs, but far ahead of anyone else’s.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Trouble with Hugh saying that the path to streaming profitability isn't linear is that streaming isn't growing fast enough to offset linear networks' continued decline, and parks may not be enough to cushion the streaming losses. Time for legacy media companies is running out to make the math work. It's already run out for Paramount (who at this rate is looking to be sold to private equity vultures), Warner Bros. Discovery might be screwed if they lose the NBA, and Comcast could face growing pressure to spin off NBCUni if it becomes too much of a drag on their stock (their stock has yet to return to 2021 levels); worst case scenario Comcast merges NBCUni with WBD and spins the whole thing off into a separate publicly-traded company where the Roberts family still has majority control. Sony's arms dealer strategy could blow up if the number of content buyers dwindles quickly.

As much as Disney is trying to fend off these kinds of fates, the reality is they've - and every other conglomerate - had over a decade to prepare for this moment, and they all dragged their feet. Now the bill's coming due and media investor patience is running out.

Disney has (up until maybe the future guidance) been improving DTC profitability at a far fast clip than linear has been declining.

I’m not sure I support their final strategy of holding onto linear. Outside of the lines of FX. There was an opportunity to sell off ABC while it was still worth something.

But I guess they decided to ride out its dwindling cheques then sell it for 10 billion or what have you. I’m just not sure how linear ends - we’re getting closer by the day to the end of its rope.
 

Frank the Tank

Well-Known Member
Disney has (up until maybe the future guidance) been improving DTC profitability at a far fast clip than linear has been declining.

I’m not sure I support their final strategy of holding onto linear. Outside of the lines of FX. There was an opportunity to sell off ABC while it was still worth something.

But I guess they decided to ride out its dwindling cheques then sell it for 10 billion or what have you. I’m just not sure how linear ends - we’re getting closer by the day to the end of its rope.

As long as Disney is in the sports business with ESPN (and I think they always want to be in the sports business because it’s the only thing that people watch live anymore en masse AKA watch commercials), then ABC has a lot of value since sports leagues still highly value over-the-air broadcast television for its audience reach for their best properties. ESPN alone can’t get a Super Bowl or NBA Finals - they still need to be able sell that they’re in every household with ABC.
 

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Peacock has failed on its own
Can’t possibly agree less. Its ratio of minutes watched to subscribers is far higher than the larger services (it’s nearly as watched as Disney+, see below). It has put can’t-miss sports content on the service, including NFL games and the summer Olympics this year, and, like Disney+, it has the cover of a gigantic conglomerate to get it through to the other side.

It probably will graft another service on (Disney already has with Hulu and might again, so has Amazon), but that will be strategic, not desperate.

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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Peacock has failed on its own. But they can graft a dead corpse of one of the other streamers to it, to make it work.

(Peacock is the poorest performer of the lot)
Peacock and paramount+ suffer from lack of content and non-committal strategy.

But that’s the problem for cbs/viacom, Comcast and Disney…
They still want the easy cable ad money…it’s just drying up. So they are trying to cannibalize their own products without actually cannibalizing their own products.

They aren’t stupid enough to think people want to get a bloated cable package at home and THEN watch their stream the rest of the day when they’re not home, are they?

Well…we know one is…
 

Advisable Joseph

Well-Known Member
Oops, I guess I am. Sorry for the confusion.

So... Wiki, then, doesn't even have an open Mar 7 2025 open date for any Disney animated movie.

Huh.
Just to clarify, Disny hasn't official announced an animated film for that date, just that there will be a notable film then.

IMDb has that film described as animated. That could be an early update, or that could be trolls.
 

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