Disney’s Q1 FY24 Earnings Results Webcast

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
That’s actually a really good way of thinking about it which I hadn’t thought before. You’re putting a more premium Disney experience in parts of the world that don’t have parks. I had always saw it more of a posh step up from those who go to the parks.

Once that Global Dream ship goes to Asia that when I will seriously look at how it will allow me to fresh out a single trip to do the Cruise and all 3 parks

Cruises out of Shanghai are the true magic ticket. I’m not sure if HKDL resort pier is large enough for a cruise ship - and if it isn’t DCL needs to pay for its expansion. You literally roll the cruise ship up to a Disney park and capture all the revenue. SDL and HKDL are an extremely complimentary pairing.

Throw in a private island somewhere and you have a massive money maker on a 7 day itinerary.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Thanks for clearing that up.

I thought she was going to have to take the bus from AoA.
You really think she would get G+? Lol. Even the Grand Floridian is beneath her. Four Seasons WDW is her level of accommodations and service. Even Chapek and the shareholders who he had meetings shortly before he got canned were at FS.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
DCL is a great business. The actual value for the consumer I question, but I guess when your benchmark is only a WDW vacation it does offer elevated luxury for the price. I do moderately follow the cruise industry and DCL is certainly not my preferred. But there is a lot of opportunity for its expansion. No it doesn’t need 25-30 ships, but it could certainly use a few more.

They’ve expanded the Caribbean to two private islands and I know from RCL that’s their highest source of guest satisfaction across their entire (worldwide) ports they visit and conveniently captures all guest revenue for the port day.

Comcast is taking the local park route, which is fine I guess. But instead of a watered down product, DCL is how you bring the P&R experience to hungry local markets, without taking on the full risk of a limited population pool or bad seasonal weather.

DCL is how you take the market to Vancouver and Sydney (via the literal same investment). It’s a solid business and one that can support 12-15 ships, but not 12-15 in just the Caribbean like RCL.

The DCL adventure is just a start of that Asian market, but easily you could homeport a ship in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai as well. A couple ships in Europe, probably two swinging between Alaska (Van x1, Seattle x1) and Australian seasons (Sydney, Brisbane, Auckland), etc.
…damn…the second sign of the apocalypse 👿
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I wish I had more time to respond to this in full.

Let me give a quick hitter.

How many quarters in a row can they lose 1+ millions subs and still be profitable ?

I don’t disagree with you. Subscribers do in fact matter and the wild roller coaster from they are the only thing of importance to they are not important at all misses the entire function of the equation.

To address the question, my very rough back of the napkin math says they have about a 10 million subscriber buffer on the back of their price increases. I think 1.50 of the price raise has yet to make its way through ARPU. For a variety of reasons, (primarily bundling and discounting) the whole 3$ won’t be realized. If things are largely stagnant we are looking at an annual rise of revenue of about 2billion. Yielding quarterly net positive generation from DTC of 300 million or so positive a quarter. That positive gets eroded to barely break even if they shed 10 million subscribers.

So about 7 more quarters of similar loses to erode their profitability.

However, it’s all a bit moot with their forward projections of a 5.5-6million gain next quarter. That seems to be what Wall Street is reacting to.

I truly, truly think, when I look at the math, that Bob is burying the lead. His next quarter his ‘surprise’ is that DTC is profitable 2 quarters early. It might have been a move he was willing to pull in the earnings call if the stock price wasn’t reacting the way he expected.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
…damn…the second sign of the apocalypse 👿

I thought people liked DCL? Other than misaligned thoughts that it somehow directly denies WDW from investment.

Spoiler alert: they mistreat WDW and have for 25 years now.

I don’t disagree that there is a lot better value in RCL (or NCL, Virgin, Celebrity, etc… depending on your demographic and vibe).
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I thought people liked DCL? Other than misaligned thoughts that it somehow directly denies WDW from investment.

Spoiler alert: they mistreat WDW and have for 25 years now.

I don’t disagree that there is a lot better value in RCL (or NCL, Virgin, Celebrity, etc… depending on your demographic and vibe).
I meant I agree with you 100%

That and an earlier agreement with JD must mean the end days are here
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I thought people liked DCL? Other than misaligned thoughts that it somehow directly denies WDW from investment.

Spoiler alert: they mistreat WDW and have for 25 years now.

I don’t disagree that there is a lot better value in RCL (or NCL, Virgin, Celebrity, etc… depending on your demographic and vibe).
Oh I can’t disagree

I support dcl as it has been run very well…maybe even though some of it was luck?

The only “complaint” - and there’s no denying this - are those that say it’s superior.

It’s not…not even close. Been on them all (except for adults only…not there quite yet) and there are superior ships, offerings and stops all over the place.

99% of those that claim superiority are clouded by the D…or haven’t gone on the modern competion…though they’ll never admit it.

But dcl serves a unique niche…and obviously serves it well. 25 years isn’t a fluke.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I’m not surprised by Nelly’s response

He’s a scumbag…but he knows it when he sees it.


At the end of the day…and after the slide that will continue into 2024 and beyond…remember this:

All the happenings this week are about Bob Iger. None of it is about Disney getting stronger.

Which is why he’s past due date. He can’t untangle his persona with the company he ran. And he ran it well for large portions.

But this is the end. Disney is bigger than Bob…and like or hate peltz…he can push his argument with this as a pressure point.

What has happened:
Iger bails…he was forgotten

Iger returns…the market didn’t care

Iger under duress…NONE of the largest stakeholders pledged any support. One going as far as putting up different directors.

Money people are greedy…first and foremost…but they’re not stupid.
They see the problems. Ip is in the toilet…parks are showing a terrible tend…the stream isn’t turning the corner on anything but semantics

Don’t think the fact they took the opportunity to make a quick buck today means they don’t remember the problems and have the parachutes on.

They do

More to follow
2/8/24
 
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Laketravis

Well-Known Member
Oh I can’t disagree

I support dcl as it has been run very well…maybe even though some of it was luck?

The only “complaint” - and there’s no denying this - are those that say it’s superior.

It’s not…not even close. Been on them all (except for adults only…not there quite yet) and there are superior ships, offerings and stops all over the place.

99% of those that claim superiority are clouded by the D…or haven’t gone on the modern competion…though they’ll never admit it.

But dcl serves a unique niche…and obviously serves it well. 25 years isn’t a fluke.

I was on the NCL Prima last month and it almost made me swear off cruises ever again.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I was on the NCL Prima last month and it almost made me swear off cruises ever again.
That’s one of those funky designs

They’re somewhat notorious

Even the travel agents say the worst cruise ships ever designed.

My next is ovation of the seas out of Seattle

Icon next year…as it were

I’m a big fan of Royal/celebrity…not so much Norwegian…which is “ok”

But not that ship
 

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