Disney’s Q1 FY23 Earnings Results Webcast - Wednesday, Feb 8, 2023

kingdead

Well-Known Member
i agree with all of this.

Unfortunately the two successes you mention are 1) a legacy Disney Channel production, and 2) a licensed show. Not sure how well the original D+ animated fare are doing. Mandalorian seems to be the only one generating tangible merchandising sales.
Somewhere in North Korea a studio lies empty... why isn't there more Encanto, more Frozen, more Moana! There's already more Moana but they can do even more! Do a reboot of the Disney Afternoon! The kids won't watch it, but the parents will!

I don't know whether this is actually the direction they'll take... but I think that in general "content producers" are scared and are going to go back to what they know they can do for a low price, on the grounds that people have watched it before and will come back to it again even under the subscription model. If you're not running Disney, that means more "MILF Island" and "90 Day Fiance" but for obvious reasons, that genre is not going to show up on Disney+.
 

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Premium Member
Bluey and Rapunzel's Tangled Adventures keep people resubscribing, then those are the quality shows. Do critics watch them? No. Will your kid start screaming and crying if they can't watch them because you cancelled Disney+? Yes. Can you sell merchandise off the IP? Oh yes!
Oh man Disney wishes so badly they’d had the foresight to demand the US merchandising rights to Bluey. The BBC owns those.
 

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
I was using them as an example of a type of show, not as specific programs that could be cancelled or not renewed.
Oh I track with you. I agree - the era of green lighting an uncertain prospect or strip mining old IP and forcing it into something new is on the way out.
 

HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
That... is not correct.

"Operating income growth at our domestic parks and experiences was due to higher volumes and increased guest spending, partially offset by cost inflation, higher operations support costs and increased costs for new guest offerings. Higher volumes were attributable to increases in passenger cruise days, attendance and occupied room nights. Guest spending growth was due to an increase in average per capita ticket revenue driven by Genie+ and Lightning Lane, which were introduced in the prior-year quarter."

Variance explanations are listed in decreasing order of magnitude, meaning the fact that "volumes" are listed before "increased guest spending" means that values increased by a greater percentage than prices.
I obviously didn't read closely enough. 🤦‍♂️ I'll take your word on the bolded. I will remain skeptical, though, that there is any true revenue growth that doesn't come from price increases.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Original Poster
I have literally been listening to the analysts all morning saying he has brought the confidence back, and they all expect that he will stay longer than the two years. Sure you can have an opinion on the company's creative output under him, but there's nothing to debate when it comes to his success as CEO.
He promised them dividends. They want him back forever.

However, if the new CEO promised even more dividends, the perfidious vultures of Wall Street will gladly show Iger the door by way of the penthouse window.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Original Poster
A high-quality Disney program is different from a high-quality HBO program, though. If Bluey and Rapunzel's Tangled Adventures keep people resubscribing, then those are the quality shows. Do critics watch them? No. Will your kid start screaming and crying if they can't watch them because you cancelled Disney+? Yes. Can you sell merchandise off the IP? Oh yes!

Andor is a good example--critically acclaimed show, lots of the older fans loved it compared with the other Star Wars content Disney's been putting out, the kind of thing that you could put on AMC or HBO. However, you can't monetize it and you could probably get the same people subscribing for the cost of the Bad Batch. So for Disney, that's junk.

You missing out the importance of "The Brand," which Iger is very good at protecting.

Iger may not have the love of children and families everywhere in his heart that he wants them all to have a magical experience with Disney parks and content, but he knows the importance of monetizing "The Brand."

The Brand is what makes people feel good about Disney.

Having a magical experience of the parks or content reinforces the consumer's loyalty to The Brand. That leads to more cash the consumer hands over to the owner of The Brand.

Iger's most damning statements about Chapek's reign was that he was hurting The Brand with all the nickle-and-diming. If people sour on The Brand, they keep their wallets shut.

So... Andor... Andor has hugely rehabilitated a significant amount of consumers who have soured on the Star Wars / LucasFilm brand. There are dozens and dozens of YouTube videos from people who have been constantly complaining about Disney's Star Wars who are now falling over themselves trying to explain in great detail how Andor is the best Star Wars since A New Hope.

That helps The Brand. These are people who will now keep their D+ subscription in anticipation of the second season of Andor. They may even go back to buying some Star Wars merch. Sure, Grogu mesmerized a family audience, but Andor has captured the cynical adults and purveyors of excellent drama (political drama at that).

One thing to remember about people who mention Bluey as the kind of show that keeps D+ subs going: About 60% of homes with a D+ subscription have no children.

That's why Iger keeps talking about content that targets an adult audience. Which is what Andor does.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
You missing out the importance of "The Brand," which Iger is very good at protecting.

Iger may not have the love of children and families everywhere in his heart that he wants them all to have a magical experience with Disney parks and content, but he knows the importance of monetizing "The Brand."

The Brand is what makes people feel good about Disney.

Having a magical experience of the parks or content reinforces the consumer's loyalty to The Brand. That leads to more cash the consumer hands over to the owner of The Brand.

Iger's most damning statements about Chapek's reign was that he was hurting The Brand with all the nickle-and-diming. If people sour on The Brand, they keep their wallets shut.

So... Andor... Andor has hugely rehabilitated a significant amount of consumers who have soured on the Star Wars / LucasFilm brand. There are dozens and dozens of YouTube videos from people who have been constantly complaining about Disney's Star Wars who are now falling over themselves trying to explain in great detail how Andor is the best Star Wars since A New Hope.

That helps The Brand. These are people who will now keep their D+ subscription in anticipation of the second season of Andor. They may even go back to buying some Star Wars merch. Sure, Grogu mesmerized a family audience, but Andor has captured the cynical adults and purveyors of excellent drama (political drama at that).

One thing to remember about people who mention Bluey as the kind of show that keeps D+ subs going: About 60% of homes with a D+ subscription have no children.

That's why Iger keeps talking about content that targets an adult audience. Which is what Andor does.
Then why not use some of that adult Fox content and put that on D+? It costs little to do that.
 

VJ

Well-Known Member
You would think they would immediately bring back APs to WDW/DL to get some additional cash to make up for their losses.

I live 7 minutes away from WDW yet can only go during the weekdays after work. I would be spending a lot more on food if they would let me buy the higher-tier passes with weekend access.
the bolded is why disney doesn't want you - they want the family from minnesota (or wherever) to have their once-in-a-lifetime trip to disney world, buying tickets, food and merch and spending money on genie+ all in one go. they don't want experienced APs who know how to game the system and spend as little money as possible
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Original Poster
My take on Iger saying everything is on the table with Hulu...

1. Brian Roberts of Universal has been talking of wanting to buy Hulu from Disney. He's clearly trying to talk up the price. His bidding for Fox drove up the price for Disney. So... he's that kind of person.

2. Iger's "we'll see..." is, I believe, his counter strategy to show they're not that interested in Hulu, so, why pay top dollar for it?

3. Disney can easily add Star to the domestic D+ subscription and get out of the Live TV streaming business. It works for international markets.

4. And at this point... does any streamer *really* want to be in the business of Live TV? If everyone is 'cutting the cord' and streaming video-on-demand is the future of home entertainment, then, why be in the business of providing the death throes of linear TV? Disney has already shown that can stream Live TV on D+.

5. Iger can always play with Roberts saying: "Well, maybe we don't want to pay $9B for your share of Hulu... that's a bit steep. So, if that's what you value Hulu at, you can have our share for $18B." We'll see if Universal, which is already slightly over leveraged, is willing to do that. And if not, Iger can come back with, "Oh, it's not worth that much, then we'll take your share off your hands for $5B.
 

Disney Glimpses

Well-Known Member
Disney is apparently dragging out the layoffs for weeks. More amateur hour out of Burbank. Sleazy, frankly. They could've delayed this announcement until all of the plans in place but Bobby Iger felt it prudent to announce it at earnings to soften the not so stellar DTC numbers.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Original Poster
Disney is apparently dragging out the layoffs for weeks. More amateur hour out of Burbank. Sleazy, frankly. They could've delayed this announcement until all of the plans in place but Bobby Iger felt it prudent to announce it at earnings to soften the not so stellar DTC numbers.
In the beginning of November, Chapek announce a hiring freeze.

When Iger was reinstated, he reiterated the freeze along with 'restructuring."

Shouldn't be a surprise to any one.

They can still reduce staff with continuing the freeze and retirement packages. The rest, unfortunately, will be pink slipped.

We've still been waiting since the beginning of November for layoffs to actually happen.

Also, this can be spread out until the end of the fiscal year in order to claim targets have been met.

I would think that people who will be laid off may prefer it to happen later than sooner? Gives them time to find a new job.

So, in the end, I see absolutely nothing "sleazy" or "amateurish" about this.

What is the honorable and professional way to layoff 7,000 people?
 

fgmnt

Well-Known Member
You missing out the importance of "The Brand," which Iger is very good at protecting.

Iger may not have the love of children and families everywhere in his heart that he wants them all to have a magical experience with Disney parks and content, but he knows the importance of monetizing "The Brand."

The Brand is what makes people feel good about Disney.
I think a lot of criticism of those charged with governance and management of the company is very well-earned, but this is probably the most succinct distillation of why Iger is back at CEO. This is also why he/they value ESPN so much. I struggle to think of a larger company that stakes so much value in their brands. It's not like there is a fan community for Kroger or ExxonMobil.

Warren Buffett himself has attested to this kind of value with American Express--you can't buy how people feel about some brands outside of buying the brand itself, and the institutional investors and the board of directors have properly assessed that Iger understands that a lot better than Chapek.
 

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