Disney’s Q1 FY21 Earnings Results Webcast - February 11, 2021

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Darkprime

Well-Known Member
Either way I hope they're right. If we aren't back to normal by next year we well and truly screwed up. And the spanish flu will look like a walk in the park compared to COVID if it goes on a 3rd year.
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
MisterPenguin said:
Q: more on parks
capex... what's in it?


A: Bob...Parks... year of challenge and learning.. how to squeeze yield (dollars) out of people in new and innovative ways! Able to break old ways that weren't working that well. Our 'problem' is too many guests!! So, we now have more levers to control that with new procedures starting from scratch.

A: Christine... parks people have done a great way to control costs.
capex... reducing capex at parks
increase capex in media for tech and DTC infrastructure
Click to expand...
How is any of that a good thing? Basically DTC is getting the majority of capex and the parks are back seat players.

Him saying having more levers to control attendance means reservations are here to stay as well most likely a more expensive AP.
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Jrb1979 said:
How is any of that a good thing? Basically DTC is getting the majority of capex and the parks are back seat players.
Click to expand...
Parks and Cruise have been getting $4B in capex per year for several years. That's why all these new park entrances and resort renovations and E-Ticket rides are coming from. Last year, they reduce park/cruise capex by about a billion I think. So this year, it will be the same reduced, but still pretty high number. It's not like they're in a position to start building new lands.

The capex amount will be reevaluated in October. If the parks are back to business thanks to vaccines, it could lead to bringing park/cruise capex back up.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
themarchhare

themarchhare

Well-Known Member
Darkprime said:
Either way I hope they're right. If we aren't back to normal by next year we well and truly screwed up. And the spanish flu will look like a walk in the park compared to COVID if it goes on a 3rd year.
Click to expand...

As long as people get the vaccine, we should be back to normal by fall with the announcement from the WH this afternoon.
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Tom P. said:
I don't mean to go too far afield, but what announcement? I didn't see that.
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Assume he means the announcement that they are buying more vaccine doses and delivery will be sped up. They anticipate having enough vaccine for 300 million Americans by the end of July.

But, some of the biggest issues:
1. Having enough vaccine doesn't mean enough people will take it. I wouldn't be surprised if by April/May, 150 million Americans have taken the vaccine.... but the government is begging more people to get vaccinated, as appointments sit open and unused. Are will eventually be having a debate about mandatory vaccinations.
2. Unknown the degree to which variants will reduce the effectiveness of vaccines. Variants could entirely defeat the vaccine -- which still appears unlikely. But the variants can slow down the point of reaching herd immunity (which is already an unknown point).
3. We don't magically hit herd immunity when we vaccinate a certain percentage. Even people who are vaccinated can get a severe infection, it's just much less common. The way herd immunity works is that it makes it harder for the virus to replicate into new hosts. You don't go from 300,000 infections down to zero in 1 cycle. Let's say right now, with low levels of vaccination, each infected person will infect 1.2 more people.... But a high level of vaccination drives that down to each infected person only infected 0.2 additional people. With each cycle of the virus, then fewer and fewer people will get infected. Thus, even once we reach a herd-immunity level of vaccination, it could still take additional weeks/months for the virus to mostly disappear. (of course, infections should also come down as we increase vaccination).
 
T

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
Assume he means the announcement that they are buying more vaccine doses and delivery will be sped up. They anticipate having enough vaccine for 300 million Americans by the end of July.

But, some of the biggest issues:
1. Having enough vaccine doesn't mean enough people will take it. I wouldn't be surprised if by April/May, 150 million Americans have taken the vaccine.... but the government is begging more people to get vaccinated, as appointments sit open and unused. Are will eventually be having a debate about mandatory vaccinations.
2. Unknown the degree to which variants will reduce the effectiveness of vaccines. Variants could entirely defeat the vaccine -- which still appears unlikely. But the variants can slow down the point of reaching herd immunity (which is already an unknown point).
3. We don't magically hit herd immunity when we vaccinate a certain percentage. Even people who are vaccinated can get a severe infection, it's just much less common. The way herd immunity works is that it makes it harder for the virus to replicate into new hosts. You don't go from 300,000 infections down to zero in 1 cycle. Let's say right now, with low levels of vaccination, each infected person will infect 1.2 more people.... But a high level of vaccination drives that down to each infected person only infected 0.2 additional people. With each cycle of the virus, then fewer and fewer people will get infected. Thus, even once we reach a herd-immunity level of vaccination, it could still take additional weeks/months for the virus to mostly disappear. (of course, infections should also come down as we increase vaccination).
Click to expand...
Recent studies suggest 80% of Americans want the vaccine, let’s wait until we start getting open appointments before assuming most won’t. More then ever, I’m optimistic that most Americans will opt for one.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
MisterPenguin said:
Parks and Cruise have been getting $4B in capex per year for several years. That's why all these new park entrances and resort renovations and E-Ticket rides are coming from. Last year, they reduce park/cruise capex by about a billion I think. So this year, it will be the same reduced, but still pretty high number. It's not like they're in a position to start building new lands.

The capex amount will be reevaluated in October. If the parks are back to business thanks to vaccines, it could lead to bringing park/cruise capex back up.
Click to expand...

They honestly have ZERO reason to do capex now...literally none.

When a large amount of your business is shut or in skeleton mode...and the stock is up...why spend a dime?

It’s about the stock price...today...not in 30 years. And if you “win” there...your investors get mad at you if you do try to improve.

Taking Disney private would be the only way to save it at this point...if you actually care about the product.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Touchdown said:
Recent studies suggest 80% of Americans want the vaccine, let’s wait until we start getting open appointments before assuming most won’t. More then ever, I’m optimistic that most Americans will opt for one.
Click to expand...

Let me diplomatic about this: if you don’t want the vaccine (and are able to take it)...I don’t care about you.

Shut up, arms out.

...but I don’t want to be confrontational.
 
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