Disney’s Mufasa - the lion king

[erasure fan1]

Off topic, but ever hear the phrase “Super Bowl or bust”? That is the NFL (or any sport really). No team goes away from a 9 or 10 win season not making or winning the Super Bowl saying that was a positive or neutral season, they’d call it a failure. Sports is a unique thing unto itself, it’s not comparable.

Businesses however can walk away from an endeavor only making a little profit and still consider it a success, movie business is no different.

My whole post didn't get posted so I had to edit it. An ad popped and I tried to close it and it saved.

But to this I'll say, you put a lot of faith into a bunch of billionaires. I hate to break it to you, but most teams are content as long as they're making fat cash. Positive is a lot more than Superbowl or bust. If more fans are showing up and watching, that's a positive for the organization. And to tie it back, a whole heck of a lot pf people didn't show up from the last film.

 

[Disney Irish]

My whole post didn't get posted so I had to edit it. An ad popped and I tried to close it and it saved.

But to this I'll say, you put a lot of faith into a bunch of billionaires. I hate to break it to you, but most teams are content as long as they're making fat cash. Positive is a lot more than Superbowl or bust. If more fans are showing up and watching, that's a positive for the organization. And to tie it back, a whole heck of a lot pf people didn't show up from the last film.

Funny how its those same Billionaire owners who fire their winning coaches for not reaching and winning the Super Bowl even after having a "winning" season. If it was just about the fans showing up so they can make "fat cash" they'd continue having those same coaches coming back year after year of not making and winning the Super Bowl. Now that is not to say that some owners aren't more tolerant than others, but mostly you're going to see them fire those "winning" coaches. For example one recent famous one was Marty Schottenheimer was fired after having a 14-2 record for failing to make the Super Bowl. If you can't keep your job after having a 14-2 winning season, then that is more than just making "fat cash" from fans, its about making and winning Super Bowls.

 

[erasure fan1]

Funny how its those same Billionaire owners who fire their winning coaches for not reaching and winning the Super Bowl even after having a "winning" season. If it was just about the fans showing up so they can make "fat cash" they'd continue having those same coaches coming back year after year of not making and winning the Super Bowl. Now that is not to say that some owners aren't more tolerant than others, but mostly you're going to see them fire those "winning" coaches. For example one recent famous one was Marty Schottenheimer was fired after having a 14-2 record for failing to make the Super Bowl. If you can't keep your job after having a 14-2 winning season, then that is more than just making "fat cash" from fans, its about making and winning Super Bowls.

A coach isn't normally fired for going 14-2 unless there's other problems. That's a big exception not the rule. Most coaches get fired because the organization isn't firing themselves when the fans are happy with the results. It's an easy, see, look at us we're trying to win! Wining coaches tend to get a pass until the fans start making noise. Again, there are teams who do have the Superbowl or bust mentality. I just don't think it's any higher than a small minority of teams.

As for Mufasa, sure Disney might find it a positive that it didn't bomb and made some money. I'm sure they didn't think it would equal 2019, but I highly doubt they were celebrating it as some big victory and some litimus test of these live action remakes. Of course I believe they would do a 3rd even if the film only does 400mil. Disney will be chasing that 1.6 bil for a long time to come. But the people have shown by it making less than half of the first, with more expensive tickets, it's more neutral than anything.

 

[Disney Irish]

A coach isn't normally fired for going 14-2 unless there's other problems. That's a big exception not the rule. Most coaches get fired because the organization isn't firing themselves when the fans are happy with the results. It's an easy, see, look at us we're trying to win! Wining coaches tend to get a pass until the fans start making noise. Again, there are teams who do have the Superbowl or bust mentality. I just don't think it's any higher than a small minority of teams.

You'd be surprised, lots of winning coaches have been fired over the years for not making the Super Bowl. And NFL fans are even more fickle than Disney fans, they turn on a coach real quick if they aren't making it to the Super Bowl. Especially if there is an expectation of winning. My own team of the Niners have fired plenty of winning coaches, good legendary hall of fame winning coaches, because they weren't making it to the Super Bowl.

Also if you don't think every team in the NFL has a Super Bowl or bust mentality then you aren't paying attention to the NFL. No team goes, "hey you know what I think we're ok if we go just 9-8 this year and miss the playoffs, its a winning record that's good enough, we'll get em next year, no reason to try harder". That is just plain silly. All teams go all out, its the sport, its competition.

As for Mufasa, sure Disney might find it a positive that it didn't bomb and made some money. I'm sure they didn't think it would equal 2019, but I highly doubt they were celebrating it as some big victory and some litimus test of these live action remakes. Of course I believe they would do a 3rd even if the film only does 400mil. Disney will be chasing that 1.6 bil for a long time to come. But the people have shown by it making less than half of the first, with more expensive tickets, it's more neutral than anything.

I get its your personal opinion and I appreciate that. But we've seen Disney not continue or delay a franchise because it didn't do well at the box office. Heck its taken 15 years to get a sequel to Tron: Legacy and that did ok at the box office, and we're finally getting one 15 years later. So there was no guarantee of another movie in this franchise if it didn't perform at least to a certain level. And the fact that a third LK movie is rumored means that Mufasa performed at least up to the level that Disney is ok with a third in the franchise.

 

[Agent H]

You'd be surprised, lots of winning coaches have been fired over the years for not making the Super Bowl. And NFL fans are even more fickle than Disney fans, they turn on a coach real quick if they aren't making it to the Super Bowl. Especially if there is an expectation of winning. My own team of the Niners have fired plenty of winning coaches, good legendary hall of fame winning coaches, because they weren't making it to the Super Bowl.

Also if you don't think every team in the NFL has a Super Bowl or bust mentality then you aren't paying attention to the NFL. No team goes, "hey you know what I think we're ok if we go just 9-8 this year and miss the playoffs, its a winning record that's good enough, we'll get em next year, no reason to try harder". That is just plain silly. All teams go all out, its the sport, its competition.


I get its your personal opinion and I appreciate that. But we've seen Disney not continue or delay a franchise because it didn't do well at the box office. Heck its taken 15 years to get a sequel to Tron: Legacy and that did ok at the box office, and we're finally getting one 15 years later. So there was no guarantee of another movie in this franchise if it didn't perform at least to a certain level. And the fact that a third LK movie is rumored means that Mufasa performed at least up to the level that Disney is ok with a third in the franchise.

The question is what will the next movie be a remake of simbas pride or something else now?

 

[Moka]

According to some inside reports, Disney has no interest in remaking Simba's Pride or any other direct to video films. Looking like the next film will be an original story, which is what I prefer. If anything Mufasa and the future film is an example of what they should be doing with these films instead of remakes. If you want to revive your older IPs, do these types of films instead that expand the universe.

On the topic of "live action", Barry Jenkins proudly claimed this is an animated film in one of the interviews pre release. So it's really only Disney pushing these other titles.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

According to some inside reports, Disney has no interest in remaking Simba's Pride or any other direct to video films. Looking like the next film will be an original story, which is what I prefer. If anything Mufasa and the future film is an example of what they should be doing with these films instead of remakes. If you want to revive your older IPs, do these types of films instead that expand the universe.

On the topic of "live action", Barry Jenkins proudly claimed this is an animated film in one of the interviews pre release. So it's really only Disney pushing these other titles.

Yes, but I would suggest if you’re going to make these kind of films which are different formats from the original, then it does make sense to first reboot the series by remaking the original in the style that would match the prequel and the sequel.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think the lesson is in the microscopic sense, no. But in the macro sense this change has somehow turned into close to 250 million dollars (or 200 and still counting).

Mufasa has moved from failure out of the gate, to breaking even, to hey it’s actually staring at 3/4 of a billlion… and that’s actually good.

This is no longer a brand damaging film, but actually a brand positive one.

It’s been received fine

I think lack of comp has done a lot for it…but in the end it doesn’t matter

I hope they don’t it again though…regardless

 

[DKampy]

It’s been received fine

I think lack of comp has done a lot for it…but in the end it doesn’t matter

I hope they don’t it again though…regardless

Lack of comp???… there were a ton of family movies in the marketplace over the holidays including Disney’s own Moana

 

[erasure fan1]

I get its your personal opinion and I appreciate that. But we've seen Disney not continue or delay a franchise because it didn't do well at the box office.

Yea, my bar is set just a bit higher than, well it didn't completely tank, so success! It did fine, didn't cost them millions in losses or bad press. Is it a positive after strange world, wish, lightyear, the marvels... Sure. But compared to the film that came before? No, I just can't say it's a positive. If you can, great, different strokes. Now Inside out 2? Extremely positive for the company.

You'd be surprised, lots of winning coaches have been fired over the years for not making the Super Bowl. And NFL fans are even more fickle than Disney fans, they turn on a coach real quick if they aren't making it to the Super Bowl

Of course. When the team wants to go a different direction, the coach is first up on the chopping block. Average tenure with one team is something like 3yrs. There's only like 3 coaches that have been with the same team for 10yrs or more if I'm not mistaken.

Also if you don't think every team in the NFL has a Super Bowl or bust mentality then you aren't paying attention to the NFL. No team goes, "hey you know what I think we're ok if we go just 9-8 this year and miss the playoffs,

Oh I'm paying attention. I think you're confusing having a superbowl or bust mentality to having the appearance of a superbowl or bust mentality. Every team would like to win it, but the minority of teams really have that "at all cost" mentality.

I guess that's enough of erasure & Irish in the morning on ESPN talk radio.

 

[brideck]

Yea, my bar is set just a bit higher than, well it didn't completely tank, so success! It did fine, didn't cost them millions in losses or bad press. Is it a positive after strange world, wish, lightyear, the marvels... Sure. But compared to the film that came before? No, I just can't say it's a positive. If you can, great, different strokes. Now Inside out 2? Extremely positive for the company.

Do you really think that Disney needs every movie to make more than a billion dollars for it to be viewed as a positive? Because that's what you're comparing it to. Only 3-4 movies a year hit that threshold because it takes something undefinable/unpredictable in the zeitgeist to be able to do it.

Mufasa was the 7th biggest movie of the year. You can wish that the market as a whole were bigger, I guess, but from the perspective of market share/how it did against its competitors? It would be hard to have expected more.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yea, my bar is set just a bit higher than, well it didn't completely tank, so success! It did fine, didn't cost them millions in losses or bad press. Is it a positive after strange world, wish, lightyear, the marvels... Sure. But compared to the film that came before? No, I just can't say it's a positive. If you can, great, different strokes. Now Inside out 2? Extremely positive for the company.

Sure that is your expectation and your bar might be higher. But as we discussing the overall expectation by others and especially by Disney are not at the same level as yours. So you have to take your personal feeling about this aside when we're talking about the business side of this and future prospects of the franchise.

Of course. When the team wants to go a different direction, the coach is first up on the chopping block. Average tenure with one team is something like 3yrs. There's only like 3 coaches that have been with the same team for 10yrs or more if I'm not mistaken.

Oh I'm paying attention. I think you're confusing having a superbowl or bust mentality to having the appearance of a superbowl or bust mentality. Every team would like to win it, but the minority of teams really have that "at all cost" mentality.

I guess that's enough of erasure & Irish in the morning on ESPN talk radio.

I'll just say that just like above I think your personal expectation and bar might be different in this case lower than the actual teams expectations and bar. Its funny that its flipped with your expectation for Disney. You hold Disney to a higher standard than the NFL teams, I wonder why.

 

[BrianLo]

Mufasa was the 7th biggest movie of the year. You can wish that the market as a whole were bigger, I guess, but from the perspective of market share/how it did against its competitors? It would be hard to have expected more.

Honestly, also looking like probably the 7th most profitable as well (if not 6th or 8th). Since that's how we have to normalize everything.

 

[erasure fan1]

Do you really think that Disney needs every movie to make more than a billion dollars for it to be viewed as a positive? Because that's what you're comparing it to.

I'll throw it back at you. Do you really think Disney expected it to do less than half the original with higher ticket prices? We're talking about Disney here. The company that put microchips on soda cups to squeeze every cent out of guests.

I don't think every film needs to be a billion plus. I said my guess is they were hoping for 800mil or so. Expectations are based on how much it cost. Disney is not green lighting films with the expectation of break even or just squeak by. If it's a small independent type film, sure. But their tent pole stuff, not a chance. If all it does is break even or just squeaks by, Disney will take it. They didn't lose money, great. Trust me, there's no parties being thrown for mufasa. Unless it's a, woo, we dodged a bullet on that one, party.

All I'm saying is, it had a neutral effect. It didn't move them forward and it for sure didn't move them back. If that's what's considered positive around here, nothing I can say will change that. I just have higher expectations than that.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'll throw it back at you. Do you really think Disney expected it to do less than half the original with higher ticket prices? We're talking about Disney here. The company that put microchips on soda cups to squeeze every cent out of guests.

I don't think every film needs to be a billion plus. I said my guess is they were hoping for 800mil or so. Expectations are based on how much it cost. Disney is not green lighting films with the expectation of break even or just squeak by. If it's a small independent type film, sure. But their tent pole stuff, not a chance. If all it does is break even or just squeaks by, Disney will take it. They didn't lose money, great. Trust me, there's no parties being thrown for mufasa. Unless it's a, woo, we dodged a bullet on that one, party.

All I'm saying is, it had a neutral effect. It didn't move them forward and it for sure didn't move them back. If that's what's considered positive around here, nothing I can say will change that. I just have higher expectations than that.

Except it’s not just breaking even or just squeaking by. It looks like it’ll be between $50-$100M (if not more) in profit by the end of its run. That is a success by every definition of the word. So I appreciate your opinion but I think your expectation of Disney is a bit skewed here, especially on what they consider a success internally.

 

[erasure fan1]

You hold Disney to a higher standard than the NFL teams, I wonder why.

Oh absolutely not. I haven't watched my team in at least 6 seasons. I still go see Disney Movies. That said, I'm not sure how you got to that conclusion. I never said it was ok for teams to make it seem they're all or nothing. I said that's just what they do.

But as we discussing the overall expectation by others and especially by Disney are not at the same level as yours.

This is one of the things I don't get. You challenge me on my opinion, and I do state my opinion. But you're responding as if you're sitting next to Bobby like you know what they are thinking. You have no idea if they think this film was a resounding positive and the expectation was to do less than half the first. I'm sorry, I just don't see it. And this isn't me trashing the film because I don't like the remake stuff.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh absolutely not. I haven't watched my team in at least 6 seasons. I still go see Disney Movies. That said, I'm not sure how you got to that conclusion. I never said it was ok for teams to make it seem they're all or nothing. I said that's just what they do.

Here's the thing though, I've personally known NFL players and coaches. ALL of them have an all or nothing Super Bowl or bust attitude, this isn't some facade they just put on for the fans. This this how they are built, its the competitive nature that starts at the top with ownership. So I'm not sure why you think that some team considers it a success going 9-8 and not making the Super Bowl and winning (or even the playoffs in many cases), that is a failure to all teams even if its still considered a winning record. You think the Chiefs right now are saying "we had a successful season" when they just lost the Super Bowl? No, they consider it a failure and I guarantee you every player and coach on that team is looking at themselves (except the selfish ones) and are blaming themselves for not winning.

Sports is an entirely unique thing unto itself, its a different mindset than normal business.

This is one of the things I don't get. You challenge me on my opinion, and I do state my opinion. But you're responding as if you're sitting next to Bobby like you know what they are thinking. You have no idea if they think this film was a resounding positive and the expectation was to do less than half the first. I'm sorry, I just don't see it. And this isn't me trashing the film because I don't like the remake stuff.

Ok, so then how do you know that Disney is considering this one as just neutral or just squeaking by or even a failure? You say that I don't know, and I'll say yeah you're right I don't know for sure, but then I say the same of you. Just because it didn't make half or whatever else as the first one doesn't mean Disney doesn't see this is a success.

And because they appear to have greenlit a 3rd, that indicates they do consider it a success as they wouldn't do that right away if they didn't think it was a success. So that is my measurement.

 

[brideck]

I'll throw it back at you. Do you really think Disney expected it to do less than half the original with higher ticket prices? We're talking about Disney here. The company that put microchips on soda cups to squeeze every cent out of guests.

I have a complicated answer to that. Disney may have wanted the idea of another Lion King movie to do the kind of business that the remake did, but it didn't make creative decisions to match that desire. You can't produce a known-outcome prequel with an art-house/small personal drama director at the helm if that's what you're really looking for.

Given the decisions they made, it exceeded my expectations.

 

[erasure fan1]

Here's the thing though, I've personally known NFL players and coaches. ALL of them have an all or nothing Super Bowl or bust attitude

100%. The vast majority of players and coaches are, unless I win, it's a failure. I played competitive sports my whole life and I'm exactly the same way. If you think for a second I'm loosing pictionary, think again. If we're playing something, it's on. But we haven't been talking about players and coaches. We've been talking about the people running the show, the owners, not the players. I'd definitely say the director and actors in Mufasa think it's a big success.

Ok, so then how do you know that Disney is considering this one as just neutral or just squeaking by or even a failure? You say that I don't know, and I'll say yeah you're right I don't know for sure, but then I say the same of you.

That's my point, I don't. I'm going by how businesses think. Every company I've worked for, how Disney values profit over guest experience, the stock market in general, all help form my opinion. But I make it pretty clear it's my opinion based on what I've seen.

And because they appear to have greenlit a 3rd, that indicates they do consider it a success as they wouldn't do that right away if they didn't think it was a success. So that is my measurement.

It's a movie that made 1.6bill. that's why they are green lighting a 3rd. As I've said, the 2nd didn't hurt them. So does that factor in? Of course. But you still have a core film that made buttloads of cash. That's the motivation in my opinion.

Disney may have wanted the idea of another Lion King movie to do the kind of business that the remake did, but it didn't make creative decisions to match that desire.

I don't think they thought it would do lion king 2019 money though. Like I said 800 to 900 was probably realistic.

 

[Disney Irish]

100%. The vast majority of players and coaches are, unless I win, it's a failure. I played competitive sports my whole life and I'm exactly the same way. If you think for a second I'm loosing pictionary, think again. If we're playing something, it's on. But we haven't been talking about players and coaches. We've been talking about the people running the show, the owners, not the players. I'd definitely say the director and actors in Mufasa think it's a big success.

I think you're being shortsighted if you don't think the owners aren't "all in Super Bowl or bust" too as that only makes them more money. Not only that but they are competitive just as much as the coaches and players and other team management. If you don't think the owners give each other a hard time at the owners meetings regarding wins and losses, then you don't know how rich people think.

But we've dragged this on long enough.

That's my point, I don't. I'm going by how businesses think. Every company I've worked for, how Disney values profit over guest experience, the stock market in general, all help form my opinion. But I make it pretty clear it's my opinion based on what I've seen.

It's a movie that made 1.6bill. that's why they are green lighting a 3rd. As I've said, the 2nd didn't hurt them. So does that factor in? Of course. But you still have a core film that made buttloads of cash. That's the motivation in my opinion.

I don't think they thought it would do lion king 2019 money though. Like I said 800 to 900 was probably realistic.

Disney I'm sure would have loved for this movie to make $1B+, or even $800 or 900M like you said. But your opinion if I understood it correctly was they just think this is a "Geez we dodged a bullet with that one" type of neutral result. And I can't just see that as being what they see when looking at a almost $700M (as of this weekend) WW take for this movie. I don't care what the original expectations were in 2020 when they announced this movie, we're talking about now 4+ years later and after the last few years of the box office, ie expectations changed. The landscape has changed, expectations have been reset back to more normal levels within Hollywood and certainly within the walls of Burbank. You're comparing it to 2019 results, which as we've seen by and large aren't coming again, so I don't see why you're of the opinion that Disney expected the same type of result in 2024/2025 after the dismal couple years they had.

Anyways we've gone on about this long enough too. So lets just agree to disagree on this one too.