Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2019 Earnings Webcast

[brb1006]

Disney's next Earnings Report is scheduled for November 7, 2019 on Thursday. So I decided to create this thread ahead of time so users won't miss it.

Webcast starts at 4:30 pm EST/ 1:30 PST.

Here's the link to the Webcast and Transcript

 

[seascape]

Disney's next Earnings Report is scheduled for November 7, 2019 on Thursday. So I decided to create this thread ahead of time so users won't miss it.

Webcast starts at 4:30 pm EST/ 1:30 PST.

Here's the link to the Webcast and Transcript

I know most people on this site couldn't care CV less about the total company profit and stick price but the quarterly earnings will have almost no impact on the stock price. The number everyone is waiting to hear is how many subscribers does Disney Plus have in advance of November 12th. They have to report the numbers through September 30th, which should have a line on the balance sheet but I want to know how many signed up through October and hope Disney reports that numbet because it will drive the stock price much higher. I believe Disney Plus will do better than the predicted. I also want Disney to announce the numbers for Hulu and Hotstar as they along with Disney Plus will allow for a better comparison to Netflix.

 

[Rodan75]

I know most people on this site couldn't care CV less about the total company profit and stick price but the quarterly earnings will have almost no impact on the stock price. The number everyone is waiting to hear is how many subscribers does Disney Plus have in advance of November 12th. They have to report the numbers through September 30th, which should have a line on the balance sheet but I want to know how many signed up through October and hope Disney reports that numbet because it will drive the stock price much higher. I believe Disney Plus will do better than the predicted. I also want Disney to announce the numbers for Hulu and Hotstar as they along with Disney Plus will allow for a better comparison to Netflix.

Doesn't Hotstar have over 100M users? That would be interesting for Disney to come in and pretty much say that they are the true streaming giant across their 4 streaming brands (D+, ESPN+, Hulu and Hotstar). I doubt they would do that, but it would be interesting.

Netflix set the tone for that a little bit, by pretty much saying their were still tiny compared to linear and other services.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I know most people on this site couldn't care CV less about the total company profit and stick price but the quarterly earnings will have almost no impact on the stock price. The number everyone is waiting to hear is how many subscribers does Disney Plus have in advance of November 12th. They have to report the numbers through September 30th, which should have a line on the balance sheet but I want to know how many signed up through October and hope Disney reports that numbet because it will drive the stock price much higher. I believe Disney Plus will do better than the predicted. I also want Disney to announce the numbers for Hulu and Hotstar as they along with Disney Plus will allow for a better comparison to Netflix.

I'm also curious to see ESPN+ numbers. They were at 2.4MM at the end of last quarter, but they lost some cool programming (at least to me, Rugby VIIs) but added a few more popular ones (Bundesliga soccer). I also want to see guidance for international rollout for Hulu, Latin America rollout for Latin America (Kevin Mayer mentioned this as an opportunity during the presentation in April), timeline for legacy films and shows that are tied up to come to Disney+ or Hulu, update on Fox Sports Brazil/Mexico. I read somewhere they may be able to keep Fox Sports Brazil as the administration there changed and they are more willing to let Disney keep it. That would be preferable especially with ESPN+ launching there. Funnily enough Argentina is still deciding if Disney has to divest Fox or if they can merge it with ESPN lol.

 

[bartholomr4]

This will likely be a very messy quarter, with debt repayment, bond re issuance, closing on the sale of the Regional Sports Networks, and ramp-up of subscribers for Disney+.... While the company may report these numbers, Disney can't recognize any of the revenue until the service goes live, so its unlikely to have any impact on this quarter.

Hulu subscriber growth and advertising will be a better indicator, as Disney will have had control of the firm for the whole quarter. I will also be interested to see if Comcast pays for its portion of any Hulu losses, or if they are trading equity instead.

Film will do well with three blockbusters registering over $1Billion each within the quarter. Some more Fox write-downs are likely as assets are marked to market, and as more of the films go live, their performance vs long term costs will probably require some set-aside/ write-down.

Expect parks to take a hit from weather in Tokyo and the Hong Kong protests. It will be hard to see the impact of SWGE in Florida because of all of the noise.

Lastly this is the 4th Fiscal quarter, the likelihood of a lot of clean-up charges and adjustments related to the 21CF Merger is high in my opinion, as they will want to clean house so next year is clean and comparisons are less complex.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Disney+ is the lynchpin now. The stock will rise and fall as the number of subscribers does.

 

[seascape]

Disney+ is the lynchpin now. The stock will rise and fall as the number of subscribers does.

The Verizon deal is big. I know Disney will not report the Verizon numbers on this call but I expect them to report some numbers. That said, listening to the CNBC call. I expect more announcements concerning sponsorship of attractions that were hinted at. Drones? Could they be the future sponsor of the new Epcot show and or Spaceship Earth?

 

[WDWTank]

The problem with Disney is becoming too big and unfocused. Like any conglomerate the wheels usually come off down the road because accountants have no vision. That's who ends up in charge.

Disney tried to get into online streaming and lost a good amount of money on it in the past. We'll see if they can roll that out as a success?

In my opinion Disney is neither a buy or a sell right now. It's a hold if you own it.

Hold it so we can all buy shares and become a majority shareholder and we take the power back!

 

[SSH]

i sold all mine this year...so the rest of you shareholders can thank me when it skyrockets - my bad timing is legendary

 

[bartholomr4]

For Comparison purposes, Comcast released their earnings statement this morning. Their SEC filings show the following performance of the company and its Theme Parks.

Theme Parks

• Theme Park Revenue up year over year from $1.53 Billion to 1.63 Billion (6.8%)
• Theme Park Earnings up 6 million dollars from $725 million to $731 million (less than 1%)
• Capital investments in the parks up from $308 last year to $505 million this year ($257 million of this for Universal Beijing)
• The company quotes "severe weather and natural disasters that negatively impacted attendance in Japan [in 2018]" as part of the reason for flat performance (Not sure why a 6.8% increase in revenue equates to a less than 1% increase in profit).

As a Company Comcast

• 21.2 % increase in revenue due to the Sky purchase this year, not on books last year
• Cash provided by operations down to $5.2 Billion from $6.0 Billion in Q3 2018
• Free Cash Flow after expenses down to $2.1 Billion from $3.1 Billion in Q3 2018
• Long Term Debt down to $99.8 Billion from $107.3 Billion (Third highest debt level of any publicly traded company)
• Interest charges up to $2.8 Billion from $886 million in Q3 2018
• Investments in Cable Networks up to $4.8 Billion from $4.3 Billion Q3 2018
• Investments in Sky $110 Million vs $109 Million Q3 2018 (Pro-Forma)

Observations

• No evidence of a big investment yet in the new Orlando Theme Park
• Interest expense appears to be a big burden and debt reduction of $8 Billion (almost ) YOY appears to be the company focus.
• Company is getting ready to swap older higher interest rate debt for new in an effort to reduce interest expense.
• Even though Revenue at parks increased, profit was flat in the parks.
• With price increases factored in, it looks as though Park attendance (i.e. number of belly buttons through the turn styles) was flat to no growth.
• This should be viewed as the control for Disney comparisons with recent price increases and attendance theories.
• The company is investing big in its existing Cable networks, much more than NBCU. ($4.8 Billion vs $505 Million)

 

[seascape]

For Comparison purposes, Comcast released their earnings statement this morning. Their SEC filings show the following performance of the company and its Theme Parks.

Theme Parks

• Theme Park Revenue up year over year from $1.53 Billion to 1.63 Billion (6.8%)
• Theme Park Earnings up 6 million dollars from $725 million to $731 million (less than 1%)
• Capital investments in the parks up from $308 last year to $505 million this year ($257 million of this for Universal Beijing)
• The company quotes "severe weather and natural disasters that negatively impacted attendance in Japan" as part of the reason for flat performance (Not sure why a 6.8% increase in revenue equates to a less than 1% increase in profit).

As a Company Comcast

• 21.2 % increase in revenue due to the Sky purchase this year, not on books last year
• Cash provided by operations down to $5.2 Billion from $6.0 Billion in Q3 2018
• Free Cash Flow after expenses down to $2.1 Billion from $3.1 Billion in Q3 2018
• Long Term Debt down to $99.8 Billion from $107.3 Billion (Third highest debt level of any publicly traded company)
• Interest charges up to $2.8 Billion from $886 million in Q3 2018
• Investments in Cable Networks up to $4.8 Billion from $4.3 Billion Q3 2018
• Investments in Sky $110 Million vs $109 Million Q3 2018 (Pro-Forma)

Observations

• No evidence of a big investment yet in the new Orlando Theme Park
• Interest expense appears to be a big burden and debt reduction of $8 Billion (almost ) YOY appears to be the company focus.
• Company is getting ready to swap older higher interest rate debt for new in an effort to reduce interest expense.
• Even though Revenue at parks increased, profit was flat in the parks.
• With price increases factored in, it looks as though Park attendance (i.e. number of belly buttons through the turn styles) was flat to no growth.
• This should be viewed as the control for Disney comparisons with recent price increases and attendance theories.
• The company is investing big in its existing Cable networks, much more than NBCU. ($4.8 Billion vs $505 Million)

You misunderstood the Japan issue. Their statement on themeparks was:

Theme Parks revenue increased 6.8% to $1.6 billion in the third quarter of 2019, primarily reflecting higher attendance due, in part, to severe weather and natural disasters that negatively impacted attendance in Japan in the third quarter of 2018. Adjusted EBITDA increased 0.9% to $731 million in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting an increase in revenue, partially offset by higher operating expenses.

The increase was due to the poor performance from Japan in 2018 and it's recovering in 2019. Overall I think those numbers are nit a good sign of themepark attendance in Orlando.

 

[bartholomr4]

You misunderstood the Japan issue. Their statement on themeparks was:

Theme Parks revenue increased 6.8% to $1.6 billion in the third quarter of 2019, primarily reflecting higher attendance due, in part, to severe weather and natural disasters that negatively impacted attendance in Japan in the third quarter of 2018. Adjusted EBITDA increased 0.9% to $731 million in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting an increase in revenue, partially offset by higher operating expenses.

The increase was due to the poor performance from Japan in 2018 and it's recovering in 2019. Overall I think those numbers are nit a good sign of themepark attendance in Orlando.

That was my point for sure....

 

[brb1006]

Keep an eye on this thread @TP2000.

 

[TP2000]

Keep an eye on this thread @TP2000 and the earnings call.

Oooh! Thank you friend, I will.

 

[brb1006]

Oooh! Thank you friend, I will.

Your welcome, especially so you won't miss the live webcast (which I linked on this thread). I always love hearing your thoughts and posts about the inner workings of Disney and it's theme parks in general. I still remember how active the thread for April 2019's Earnings Call that revealed the name of Disney+ (and was the only webcast that contained live video and audio) that lasted for hours and was an actual preview of the Streaming Service for the first time.

 

[monothingie]

Preview of Q4 P&R spin.

 

[Epcot82Guy]

Preview of Q4 P&R spin

Actually, with SWGE "nothing to see here" is actually the exact problem...

 

[bartholomr4]

Sony Exits cloud-based TV Service

(Reuters) - Sony Corp <6758.T> said on Tuesday it would shut down its cloud-based TV service PlayStation Vue in January, citing competition.
Pay-TV groups have been squeezed globally as viewers switch to online video platforms that often offer cheaper packages and churn out original productions.

"Unfortunately, the highly competitive pay TV industry, with expensive content and network deals, has been slower to change than we expected," said John Kodera, deputy president of Sony Interactive Entertainment.

The entertainment segment would remain focused on its core gaming business, Kodera added. (https://play.st/31Y7APH)
The content on Sony's PlayStation Vue, launched in 2015, can be accessed through the PlayStation Store on PS4 and Sony's partnerships with other entertainment apps, the company said.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I'm also curious to see ESPN+ numbers. They were at 2.4MM at the end of last quarter, but they lost some cool programming (at least to me, Rugby VIIs) but added a few more popular ones (Bundesliga soccer). I also want to see guidance for international rollout for Hulu, Latin America rollout for Latin America (Kevin Mayer mentioned this as an opportunity during the presentation in April), timeline for legacy films and shows that are tied up to come to Disney+ or Hulu, update on Fox Sports Brazil/Mexico. I read somewhere they may be able to keep Fox Sports Brazil as the administration there changed and they are more willing to let Disney keep it. That would be preferable especially with ESPN+ launching there. Funnily enough Argentina is still deciding if Disney has to divest Fox or if they can merge it with ESPN lol.

Is ESPN+ included in a bundle with Disney +? If they now carry the Bundesliga, that might finally be the last bit of incentive I need to sign up.

 

[bartholomr4]

Is ESPN+ included in a bundle with Disney +? If they now carry the Bundesliga, that might finally be the last bit of incentive I need to sign up.

You subscribe separately to Hulu, Disney+, and ESPN+. Disney is suppose to be coming out with a bundle package for all three. I don't know what the price will be for the bundle.....