Disney’s Fiscal Full Year and Q4 2019 Earnings Webcast

[Minnesota disney fan]

I’ve never seen a disney survey that didn’t include positive and negative responses.

True, but the ones I saw were leading and did not give you a real choice. I wish I could remember some of the questions, but I do remember they all tried to show Disney in a good light all the time, no negatives. Maybe someone else can expand on the actual questions they are now asking? I haven't had a poll sent for at least 6 years, so maybe they have changed?

 

[MisterPenguin]

The polls that I have gotten from Disney had leading questions and the answers were not representative of all the choices available. The answers guided you into one way that Disney wants, IMO. I didn't answer the questions they wanted, so I had a poll cancelled by Disney. I wasn't the demographic they were looking for to drink the koolaid, apparently.

My online polls I got had leading questions, too, but to WDW's detriment, such as: Was the Christmas Party too crowded?

So, there's my anecdote that tumbles the pollster conspiracy.

 

[mikeximus]

Attendance...

Just like anything else, attendance is one of those things that isn't a huge ordeal until people stop spending money. The past 4 fiscal quarters have been mixed when it comes to Domestic Parks attendance.

Quarter 1 Shareholder call:

Attendance at our domestic parks was comparable to the first quarter last year. However, per capita spending was up 7% on higher admissions, food and beverage and merchandise spending. Per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 5%, and occupancy was up three percentage points to 94%. So far this quarter, domestic resort reservations are pacing up 4% compared to prior year, while booked rates are up 1%.

Quarter 2 Shareholder call:

Attendance at our domestic parks was up 1% in the second quarter and per capita spending was up 4% on higher admissions and food and beverage spending. Per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 1% and occupancy was up three percentage points to 93%. So far this quarter, domestic resort reservations are pacing up 3% compared to prior year, while booked rates are up 2%.

Quarter 3 Shareholders call:

Attendance at our domestic parks was down 3% in the third quarter, but per capita spending was up a healthy 10% on higher admissions, food and beverage and merchandise spending. Per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 3% and occupancy was up two percentage points to 88%.

Quarter 4 Shareholders call:

Attendance at our domestic parks was comparable to the fourth quarter last year and reflects the impact of Hurricane Dorian, which we estimate adversely impacted attendance growth by about 1 percentage point. Per capita guest spending was up 5% on higher admissions, merchandise and food and beverage spending. Per room spending at our domestic hotels was up 2%, and occupancy of 85% was comparable to the fourth quarter last year.

Asking the question of Disney as to how sustainable is the model of relying heavily on increasing the prices of tickets, merchandise and food to generate the majority of growth in their domestic parks, is a legitimate question to ask. So much so, on the last conference call, someone from Wells Fargo asked about this very topic. The answer from Disney left just a touch to be desired...

Steve, on domestic parks, we still feel very good about the demand for our domestic park product. We do a lot of research in our Parks business, guest satisfaction is something that we track, when people come and their intent to return. And also, we have metrics that look out year-over-year, what the booking trends are and as I mentioned in my prepared comments, our booked rates at our domestic hotels are currently pacing up 5% versus prior year. So given everything that we've talked about previously, especially as it relates to Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge and the complete opening of that land in both ‘World and Disneyland, we feel really good about the momentum we have going into '19 for domestic parks.

That wasn't really an answer per say. basically all they are saying is "trust us we know what we are doing"... Than they point to their bookings already being up 5% for the previous year. That stat is a bit of a misnomer, because if you read the last 4 quarters that I quoted above, higher bookings doesn't equal higher attendance.

Q1 saw 3% higher occupancy at hotels in comparison to the previous years Q1, but, attendance was "comparable", or basically flat.

Q2 saw 3% higher occupancy at hotels in comparison to the previous years Q2, but, attendance was up only 1%

Q3 saw 2% higher occupancy at hotels in comparison to the previous years Q3, but, attendance was down 3%

Q4 saw comparable (flat) occupancy at hotels in comparison to the previous years Q4, but, attendance was also comparable (flat)

So pointing to the 5% increase in bookings is not a clear indication of an increase in attendance. What is clear is that just because people are occupying the hotels, they aren't necessarily going into the parks. If they aren't going into the parks, than they aren't paying the higher ticket prices, higher food prices, and higher merch prices, that Disney is heavily relying on to push their "growth" in the domestic parks.

It is a fine line to walk, how far can they push it until they price themselves out, and they do see a decline in attendance. Have they already priced themselves out? I see articles like this, and it makes me think that in some aspects, yes they have priced themselves out to an extent...

Myth vs. Reality: Disney World Has Outpriced Middle-class Families - Miles For Family

With the recent ticket price increases, has Disney become unaffordable for average families? Find out if Disney World has outpriced middle-class families.

milesforfamily.com

This article really doesn't explain whether or not middle class families are being out priced. What it does is gives tips to families on how to cut costs so they can still afford going to Disney... Ummm... if middle class families have to start looking into staying on offsite properties, attend less days at the park, cut out dining,or cut out some of the more unique things a Disney vacation offers (character experiences, character dining etc etc), well than it's not a myth that middle class families are starting to be priced out, it's a fact. If a family is used to going on vacation for 7 days at Disney, but, now have to start thinking about 5 days, or dropping down into a lower dining, or skipping a party, etc etc. That is not exactly arguing that Disney is not outpricing the middle class.

 

[bartholomr4]

My online polls I got had leading questions, too, but to WDW's detriment, such as: Was the Christmas Party too crowded?

So, there's my anecdote that tumbles the pollster conspiracy.

Disney polling is very sophisticated and they use many different survey techniques. The polls / surveys they take when you are in the park or shortly there after are generally designed to get your response to a specific event (like dinner at Chef Mickey’s or attendance at Mickey’s Christmas party). Taking A poll in the midst of a visit will yield a biased sample. A time interval of a couple of weeks need to go by, in order to get normalized (remove the influence of what is. happening now)responses. As has been said here already, you can word a survey in such a way to gain the outcome you want (I.e. a question about your feelings about a candidate who beats his dog, will introduce negative feelings about a candidate even if he doesn’t even have a dog, let along beat it).

Again there are different polling techniques Disney uses. One technique is referred to as a ConJoint method. They ask you the same question over and over again but in a different way, and compare the responses to gain the respondents actual opinion. We as humans can’t help responding to surveys with our own influences and psychological nature, as we try to interpret what the survey writer is trying to get as a response, and we try to influence the response (I.e. a pollster asking us what party we are affiliated with and we respond with the wrong party, trying to influence the overall results of the poll). Disney and other sophisticated research groups have developed a lot of techniques to get us to give out our real feelings even when we don’t want to.

 

[bartholomr4]

[/QUOTE]So pointing to the 5% increase in bookings is not a clear indication of an increase in attendance. What is clear is that just because people are occupying the hotels, they aren't necessarily going into the parks. If they aren't going into the parks, than they aren't paying the higher ticket prices, higher food prices, and higher merch prices, that Disney is heavily relying on to push their "growth" in the domestic parks.
[/QUOTE]

Your logic should also take into consideration the fact that a Disney hotel isn’t the only place to stay near a Disney resort. Disney is bringing on new hotels and DVC properties, but at a rate which is lower than properties owned by other chains. If Disney raises its prices outside what people will pay, or what a non- Disney chain would charge, people would stop staying “on property” and would pay the corresponding lower rate.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Disney polling is very sophisticated and they use many different survey techniques. The polls / surveys they take when you are in the park or shortly there after are generally designed to get your response to a specific event (like dinner at Chef Mickey’s or attendance at Mickey’s Christmas party). Taking A poll in the midst of a visit will yield a biased sample. A time interval of a couple of weeks need to go by, in order to get normalized (remove the influence of what is. happening now)responses. As has been said here already, you can word a survey in such a way to gain the outcome you want (I.e. a question about your feelings about a candidate who beats his dog, will introduce negative feelings about a candidate even if he doesn’t even have a dog, let along beat it).

Again there are different polling techniques Disney uses. One technique is referred to as a ConJoint method. They ask you the same question over and over again but in a different way, and compare the responses to gain the respondents actual opinion. We as humans can’t help responding to surveys with our own influences and psychological nature, as we try to interpret what the survey writer is trying to get as a response, and we try to influence the response (I.e. a pollster asking us what party we are affiliated with and we respond with the wrong party, trying to influence the overall results of the poll). Disney and other sophisticated research groups have developed a lot of techniques to get us to give out our real feelings even when we don’t want to.

Yes, this was what I was trying to say!!! Disney, or anyone, can word a survey in such a way to gain the outcome they want. This is what the polls I participated in were like. It was irritating as I couldn't express my true feelings, only the outcome they wanted to hear.
Thank you for this

 

[MisterPenguin]

Yes, this was what I was trying to say!!! Disney, or anyone, can word a survey in such a way to gain the outcome they want. This is what the polls I participated in were like. It was irritating as I couldn't express my true feelings, only the outcome they wanted to hear.
Thank you for this

That was not my experience when taking polls for Disney.

 

[VaderTron]

Number of people attending keeps going up. That's a fact.

You are just plain wrong.

As usual.

Numbers of people on the earth continue to rise. Increases in small amounts do not mean anything more than "more people around". It does not conclusively mean they are attracting lots more interest.

 

[VaderTron]

Attendance...

Just like anything else, attendance is one of those things that isn't a huge ordeal until people stop spending money. The past 4 fiscal quarters have been mixed when it comes to Domestic Parks attendance.

Quarter 1 Shareholder call:




Quarter 2 Shareholder call:



Quarter 3 Shareholders call:



Quarter 4 Shareholders call:



Asking the question of Disney as to how sustainable is the model of relying heavily on increasing the prices of tickets, merchandise and food to generate the majority of growth in their domestic parks, is a legitimate question to ask. So much so, on the last conference call, someone from Wells Fargo asked about this very topic. The answer from Disney left just a touch to be desired...



That wasn't really an answer per say. basically all they are saying is "trust us we know what we are doing"... Than they point to their bookings already being up 5% for the previous year. That stat is a bit of a misnomer, because if you read the last 4 quarters that I quoted above, higher bookings doesn't equal higher attendance.

Q1 saw 3% higher occupancy at hotels in comparison to the previous years Q1, but, attendance was "comparable", or basically flat.

Q2 saw 3% higher occupancy at hotels in comparison to the previous years Q2, but, attendance was up only 1%

Q3 saw 2% higher occupancy at hotels in comparison to the previous years Q3, but, attendance was down 3%

Q4 saw comparable (flat) occupancy at hotels in comparison to the previous years Q4, but, attendance was also comparable (flat)

So pointing to the 5% increase in bookings is not a clear indication of an increase in attendance. What is clear is that just because people are occupying the hotels, they aren't necessarily going into the parks. If they aren't going into the parks, than they aren't paying the higher ticket prices, higher food prices, and higher merch prices, that Disney is heavily relying on to push their "growth" in the domestic parks.

It is a fine line to walk, how far can they push it until they price themselves out, and they do see a decline in attendance. Have they already priced themselves out? I see articles like this, and it makes me think that in some aspects, yes they have priced themselves out to an extent...

Myth vs. Reality: Disney World Has Outpriced Middle-class Families - Miles For Family

With the recent ticket price increases, has Disney become unaffordable for average families? Find out if Disney World has outpriced middle-class families.

milesforfamily.com

This article really doesn't explain whether or not middle class families are being out priced. What it does is gives tips to families on how to cut costs so they can still afford going to Disney... Ummm... if middle class families have to start looking into staying on offsite properties, attend less days at the park, cut out dining,or cut out some of the more unique things a Disney vacation offers (character experiences, character dining etc etc), well than it's not a myth that middle class families are starting to be priced out, it's a fact. If a family is used to going on vacation for 7 days at Disney, but, now have to start thinking about 5 days, or dropping down into a lower dining, or skipping a party, etc etc. That is not exactly arguing that Disney is not outpricing the middle class.

I did a poll the other month with over 400 responders all who have an interest in WDW because they all are members of this forum. Over 80% said they were planning to or already had reduced their WDW attendance and/or spending. The ones putting a positive spin on everything are no different than The Two Bob's. PR spin in hopes that the stock keeps climbing because they are all stockholders.

 

[Lilofan]

I did a poll the other month with over 400 responders all who have an interest in WDW because they all are members of this forum. Over 80% said they were planning to or already had reduced their WDW attendance and/or spending. The ones putting a positive spin on everything are no different than The Two Bob's. PR spin in hopes that the stock keeps climbing because they are all stockholders.

PR spin? How about the stock is doing well, shareholders and Wall Street happy and Dow Jones is at all time high of 28k? Life is good as an investor!

 

[MisterPenguin]

Numbers of people on the earth continue to rise. Increases in small amounts do not mean anything more than "more people around". It does not conclusively mean they are attracting lots more interest.

But if numbers went down, you'd be using that as an absolute fact that Disney is failing.

 

[VaderTron]

PR spin? How about the stock is doing well, shareholders and Wall Street happy and Dow Jones is at all time high of 28k? Life is good as an investor!

And people can't understand why history repeats itself...

 

[VaderTron]

But if numbers went down, you'd be using that as an absolute fact that Disney is failing.

Depends on your definition of what the extent of "failure" means. They are already failing to meet standards and expectations in the parks. Attendance is not a marker for determining that. It's potentially an impact point from the poor decisions down the road. But I never said Disney is a financial failure as a business. They may have a rocky road ahead of them if they keep making the same mistakes in the parks. But Disney+ including Mandalorian are good in my book. I enjoy their development of Star Wars. Enjoyed Lady and the Tramp live action. I've said it before, it's because I know that Disney is capable of doing better that fuels my disappointment and denunciation of their managment of the parks.

 

[Lilofan]

And people can't understand why history repeats itself...

And the savvy cash out while they are ahead and accumulate on the dip..

 

[mikeximus]

I did a poll the other month with over 400 responders all who have an interest in WDW because they all are members of this forum. Over 80% said they were planning to or already had reduced their WDW attendance and/or spending. The ones putting a positive spin on everything are no different than The Two Bob's. PR spin in hopes that the stock keeps climbing because they are all stockholders.

Well, you can add me to that list as well. My wife and I decided that the price for our usual WDW trip had exceeded what we felt comfortable dishing out, and went from the Standard Dining plan, down to the Quick Service plan, and decided not to do a dessert party (x4 attendees) that we originally had planned on. Even with cutting those, our trip is still hundreds more than what we paid for in the same week, at the same resort in 2017.

It shouldn't take a genius to look at what I posted the other day, and realize that for the last 4 quarters, attendance is likely down. Not only is it likely down for the last 4 quarters, that loss of attendance is so big, that it is offsetting the gains in attendance from resort occupancy. Of the last 4 quarters, only 1 quarter saw an uptick in their domestic parks attendance, 2 were flat, and 1 quarter saw a down-tick of 3 points. Now I say likely down, because a 1% increase in 1 quarter may or may not cover a 3% drop in another quarter, we would need the hard numbers to actual ascertain that. So that's why I say it likely dropped.

With that said, if I were a Disney stock holder (which I am), the information i posted the other day should be concerning. Think about it. 3 of the 4 quarters saw increases in resort occupancy, but, only 1 quarter saw enough of an increase to justify an uptick in attendance. So everyone should stop and think about that... In all likelihood, the domestic parks are seeing an increase in attendance from the increases in occupancy in their resorts, but... they aren't seeing that same level of increase int heir overall attendance. So while attendance from resorts is up, attendance from other sources is obviously down, and down so much, it is offsetting the increase from resort occupancy.

Those other sources are daily walk-ups, possibly annual passes, etc etc. Basically, it can be argued that the Domestic parks might... might have outpriced themselves out of their local economies. They are now relying more on people booking vacations, and those people spending more money thru the increase of prices on the tickets, food, and merchandise.

So again, it is a very legitimate question to ask of Iger and company. How long is this model sustainable? They are not relying on growing attendance to their parks as a means to generate growth! They are relying on raising prices on their guests by substantial amounts, to generate that appearance of revenue growth at it's Domestic parks.

If someone is a stockholder, and doesn't look at that as at least a little concerning, and instead is arguing that everything is hunky dory... well, you might get caught holding the bag in the end. I am not trying to say that the sky is falling, obviously it is not, but, by looking at those last 4 quarters, one should at least take a step back and be alittle more objective.

Also of note from those conference calls is Iger and company making mention of the increases in labor costs because of their newly settled collective bargaining agreements with the unions. Things like this are important because complaints of labor costs coming from the leadership means cost cutting.

And thus we get an increase in the Automated Photo-pass Boxes. These boxes are replacing the actual real life photographers. In one of the Disney face book pages my wife and I are a part of, this news was met with huge disappointment to say the least. With a lot of people saying that a box taking a picture will never be able to capture some of the moments that a real life photographer caught at character meet and greets. My wife and I were in agreement, as many of our favorite pictures ever taken on our WDW trips were caught off script of the actual "pose and say cheese" picture.

So when people say that Disney relies on polls in order to judge customer happiness, that should be taken with a grain of salt because it is obvious that when Disney sees fit to save some money, customer happiness does take a back seat.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Well, you can add me to that list as well. My wife and I decided that the price for our usual WDW trip had exceeded what we felt comfortable dishing out, and went from the Standard Dining plan, down to the Quick Service plan, and decided not to do a dessert party (x4 attendees) that we originally had planned on. Even with cutting those, our trip is still hundreds more than what we paid for in the same week, at the same resort in 2017.

It shouldn't take a genius to look at what I posted the other day, and realize that for the last 4 quarters, attendance is likely down. Not only is it likely down for the last 4 quarters, that loss of attendance is so big, that it is offsetting the gains in attendance from resort occupancy. Of the last 4 quarters, only 1 quarter saw an uptick in their domestic parks attendance, 2 were flat, and 1 quarter saw a down-tick of 3 points. Now I say likely down, because a 1% increase in 1 quarter may or may not cover a 3% drop in another quarter, we would need the hard numbers to actual ascertain that. So that's why I say it likely dropped.

With that said, if I were a Disney stock holder (which I am), the information i posted the other day should be concerning. Think about it. 3 of the 4 quarters saw increases in resort occupancy, but, only 1 quarter saw enough of an increase to justify an uptick in attendance. So everyone should stop and think about that... In all likelihood, the domestic parks are seeing an increase in attendance from the increases in occupancy in their resorts, but... they aren't seeing that same level of increase int heir overall attendance. So while attendance from resorts is up, attendance from other sources is obviously down, and down so much, it is offsetting the increase from resort occupancy.

Those other sources are daily walk-ups, possibly annual passes, etc etc. Basically, it can be argued that the Domestic parks might... might have outpriced themselves out of their local economies. They are now relying more on people booking vacations, and those people spending more money thru the increase of prices on the tickets, food, and merchandise.

So again, it is a very legitimate question to ask of Iger and company. How long is this model sustainable? They are not relying on growing attendance to their parks as a means to generate growth! They are relying on raising prices on their guests by substantial amounts, to generate that appearance of revenue growth at it's Domestic parks.

If someone is a stockholder, and doesn't look at that as at least a little concerning, and instead is arguing that everything is hunky dory... well, you might get caught holding the bag in the end. I am not trying to say that the sky is falling, obviously it is not, but, by looking at those last 4 quarters, one should at least take a step back and be alittle more objective.

Also of note from those conference calls is Iger and company making mention of the increases in labor costs because of their newly settled collective bargaining agreements with the unions. Things like this are important because complaints of labor costs coming from the leadership means cost cutting.

And thus we get an increase in the Automated Photo-pass Boxes. These boxes are replacing the actual real life photographers. In one of the Disney face book pages my wife and I are a part of, this news was met with huge disappointment to say the least. With a lot of people saying that a box taking a picture will never be able to capture some of the moments that a real life photographer caught at character meet and greets. My wife and I were in agreement, as many of our favorite pictures ever taken on our WDW trips were caught off script of the actual "pose and say cheese" picture.

So when people say that Disney relies on polls in order to judge customer happiness, that should be taken with a grain of salt because it is obvious that when Disney sees fit to save some money, customer happiness does take a back seat.

Attendance was up last year, and for all Orlando parks.

Tourist business is up 9% in Orlando. They're not all going to Sea World.

If you're a stockholder and a slight decline in domestic parks is a concern, they you don't understand what you have stocks in. Disney is more than the parks and their equity increases greatly each year.

You have valid concerns about some things WDW does, like the photo boxes. But that doesn't stop the general populace from liking and crowding WDW.

 

[HauntedPirate]

I am under no delusion that TWDC is in any danger of closing their doors. But one can also objectively look at some of their decisions and choices and question them. One can also question the sanity of stock analysts and traders who pushed DIS stock way higher on the back of the Disney+ launch, something that isn't expected to generate a profit for 3-5 years in an age when things can change almost as fast as Thanos can snap his fingers.

The question in my mind boils down to this: PEP generates roughly half of TWDC's annual net profit and has averaged something like 13.5% growth per year over the past 7-8 years (due in no small part to attendance gains but also significant price increases) - How sustainable is that? I don't know, but it can't last forever.

 

[bartholomr4]

I am under no delusion that TWDC is in any danger of closing their doors. But one can also objectively look at some of their decisions and choices and question them. One can also question the sanity of stock analysts and traders who pushed DIS stock way higher on the back of the Disney+ launch, something that isn't expected to generate a profit for 3-5 years in an age when things can change almost as fast as Thanos can snap his fingers.

The question in my mind boils down to this: PEP generates roughly half of TWDC's annual net profit and has averaged something like 13.5% growth per year over the past 7-8 years (due in no small part to attendance gains but also significant price increases) - How sustainable is that? I don't know, but it can't last forever.

Great summary. I agree with your summary, but suggest the company has decided to execute some "creative destruction" with streaming, and placed a big bet on its ability to grow subscribers who will pay a re-occurring fee to consume its media products, in lieu of revenues it is slowly giving up in cable subs, sale of DVD's, and advertising revenue. This is a big bet, and I believe the price increases at the park have been a reaction to the risks inherent in betting you can kill 2 or three revenue streams and replace that revenue with a new product (Disney +). To pay for the investment in streaming until it comes on line (just happened last week), I think the company has stressed its other pricing and cost prices to attempt to fill the hole created by said investments.

Disney+ doesn't have to immediately jump to a profit, to start to provide relief.... It just has to start to generate revenue to offset what for the last two years has been a complete drain on earnings. Starting in 2020 (I would argue) the hole needed to be filled will be less. This should allow for relief on price increases. The next question: Will Disney be smart enough to slow the price increases which have obviously started to stress its relationship with the loyal customer base.

Hopefully, Disney+ will at least start to fill that hole and create some relief for the rest of the company. As Iger has said (and others here have recognized) the ability to continually increase prices in the parks has probably come to the point where a "pause" is required. The model for the parks, to increase its revenue and resulting profits, will be to maintain its prices, but increase its footprint. Iger and/or his successor will need to increase the size of the existing parks to allow more people to be in them at the same time, in order to support this pause. In almost every market, competitors are growing their footprints, which will also introduce the need to respond. Expanding the footprint will take some time, but my bet is the existing "increase prices" model will morph, and we will see the boundaries of the current parks grow, and or existing foot prints which are under-utilized to be given new lift.

 

[mikeximus]

Attendance was up last year, and for all Orlando parks.

And that was last year, in the realm of the stock market, it is, and always has been "what have you done for me lately." last year only now matters as a comparison for this years growth.

Tourist business is up 9% in Orlando. They're not all going to Sea World.

And they aren't all going to one of the Disney Parks either. Plus I would like to see the source on that. AS we are seeing with the Disney Parks, just because "business" is up, doesn't mean an actual increase of 9% in people is coming into the Orlando area.

If you're a stockholder and a slight decline in domestic parks is a concern, they you don't understand what you have stocks in. Disney is more than the parks and their equity increases greatly each year.

And that would be a strawman argument. Obviously my only concern is not just a dip in attendance. I've named more than just one aspect of one issue. The bigger concern is the company trying to pass off growth for the fiscal year as raising prices on the seemingly stagnate attendance numbers. That would be like the major auto manufacturers saying their sales of autos is "comparable" to the previous years, but, they grew because they charged more money per car. If GM or Ford came out with a report like that, it wouldn't really generate confidence.

More issues I have, is that first Disney probably overpaid for Lucasfilm. I am concerned that after 6 years, they haven't even come close to recouping their initial investment of $4 billion, and they have continued to invest billions more into the IP, with very mixed results in attendance at GE, and a pretty nasty drop in merchandise sales for the IP. and before someone points out that the Star Wars movies have grossed over $4 billion total... that does not mean they have profited $4 billion...

Marvel has finished it's years long culmination of Avengers, what is going to replace that revenue now? Black Widow? Falcon? Anyone seeing those 2020 releases even coming close to the 2018 and 2019 box offices driven by IW and EG?

Now here's the thing. My using the word "concern" isn't really a factual statement of what I feel. I am not emotionally attached to my DIsney stock. Me being "concerned" means I am watching what is going on with Disney very closely, because there are some concerning signs. Up until March of this year, my Disney stock wasn't really something I was too worried about. It was pretty stable. However, when in the course of about a month, the stock jumped $30 a share, well now I am forced to be concerned about the stock.

I am all about protecting my profits! What that means is that when there is a significant jump in the price of one aspect of my portfolio, I have to pay attention to it, and watch it closer than I would normally. That way, if and when there is a correction, or something else happens, I can try my best to be on the leading edge of the sell off to protect my profits and not get stuck holding the bag on Disney stock that no one wants to buy because it's dropping. Once that stock stabilizes, I will reinvest it back into Disney, with buying more shares. If that never happens, I still win, because the stock is still up $30 a share from where it was back in March. If it does happen, I protected my profits, and reinvested at a lower price, thus giving me more shares.

I don't listen to financial advisers who want to tell people to ride the ups and downs. Nope! No Way! because while they are telling us to do that, they are running into the backroom of their offices dumping the very stocks they are telling us to ride out. All the brokers, advisers, etc etc use us (the average idiot) to stabilize the stock so it doesn't crash to fast, giving them time to sell their shares.

If some people want to be cheerleaders for a stock, and want to have an emotional attachment to it? That's up to them, I don't work like that. My family and I love vacationing at Disney, but, I am not going to let my emotions blind me to losing money.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Yet another stock-minded comment. Everything is not about money. My comments were clear. The argument was that numbers can and are being highlighted in a way to please stockholders. There is no huge surge in interest in the parks. Increased revenue had been driven by price increases across the board. That is not a sustainable way to maintain the parks. If the parks conditions which include half working animatronics/effects on rides, aged out monorails with no replacements plans, peeling paint and more trash spotted around the parks is the way things look when they are "making record profits", what will it look like when this unsustainable run of price hikes reaches its limits? Do you think that the parks will get better? What will happen is horrifying to imagine. Deeper cuts across the board to limit operational costs.

More people than ever are going to the parks.

I’m not saying the parks have zero problems...they do. I am saying the parks are doing extremely well. You may not like the decisions being made, maintenance, show quality, etc, but more people than ever are going and spending more money than ever before.

I don’t agree with everything they’ve done either, but results are results. Trying to argue the results aren’t good just makes you wrong. The numbers confirm the strategy is working well for better or worse. The quality of the experience, attractions, show decisions, park hours, and prices are completely different discussions.

And don’t highlight a single quarter of results that might show a small down tick in one metric...over time, it’s all been up.

You’re like the Apple guy saying Apple should stick to making great Macs and the iPhone and iPad are terrible products with too many compromises and you miss Steve Jobs. Meanwhile, Apple is worth $1.2T and has more satisfied customers than ever.