mkt said:
heh.. I love the Analog v. Digital debate. Years ago, people said that music would go over entirely to digital.... well, years later, it still hasn't. You do gain clarity with digital, but you lose a sense of warmth. It's too real, and films are supposed to be an escape from reality.
Both mediums will coexist for the time being.
Who's willing to take this bet?
I agree they will for a while but a lot of camera companies have started or are talking about discontinuing selling film cameras. Kodak announced early this year that they will stop producing 35mm point and shoots for sale in the US.
These are few numbers pulled from some articles on dpreview. In 2003 50 million digital cameras were sold world wide and 57 million film cameras were sold in the same time frame. For a new medium that is huge.
Also on the site analysts believe that digital camera sales will reach 53 million for 2004 and grow at a rate of 15% year over year for the next 4 years to a total of 82 million units in 2008 sold.
Also from their site:
At the end of 2002 approximately 23 million U.S. households – nearly 20 percent – owned digital cameras. During the life cycle of a technology, a new product is often considered to have reached the early majority – or the mass market – after achieving 22 percent penetration. Digital cameras are close to reaching this point. In addition, the changing demographics of digital camera users are critical to the movement of these products into the mass market. As the most photo active households – generally women and families with young
children – begin to use digital cameras, the technology moves closer to becoming a mainstream product. The challenge, of course, will be providing the infrastructure for these consumers to print their digital images and to successfully market these services.
I believe that number has been well past now meanng they are mainstream. I also read somewhere but don't remember where that digital camera acceptance has grown faster than any other type of product in history, faster than the phone, cars, tv, etc. People that were not photo-bugs have become ones due to the fact that it is so easy and free after the inital purchase to use unless you print.
So back to what Rob said, they will coexist for the time being I don't think it will be for long. At least for the consumers, not pros. But in time that will change too. I am not making a statement that the quality of digital is better than film, I just think the ease of use and long term cost are catipulting digital over film and eventuly will land on the film and crush it out of existance on the market so to speak.
Yeah, long post I know. Sorry.