Crunching the numbers...

[stlbobby]

You need to read more carefully. I didn't say you were attacking anyone. I said you were attacking their posts.

Then, ironically, you went on to personally attack me. I am neither being a hero, I've taken care of that in real life, nor am I taking this personally. I am defending what I said, and what you mostly misread. None of which is inaccurate or pixie dust--I, in fact, stated I was being manipulated into spending more money by WDW and explained how. I was simply presenting a larger picture of DVC ownership.

 

[GoofGoof]

If there is one thing I have learned since joining DVC is that everyone uses it and views it differently. I am using my DVC membership to go every other year (or twice every 3 years) for a week to 10 days in either a 1or 2 bedroom villa. My family is accustomed to staying in condos and we tried staying off property in non-Disney timeshares. This worked out well and the places were nice, but you don't get that same magical feeling you get when staying on property (this is just my opinion). Buying into DVC was really the only way that I could justify staying in DVC villas. The cash rates even with a huge discount are still outrageous. I know I could rent points, but depending on how much of an increase in rental rates and fees you assume there is still a savings with buying (it is much longer than paying cash prices, but it is still there). I haven't gone frequently enough in a year to get an AP yet. Without the AP I can still get TIW with DVC.

At the end of the day if you are crunching the numbers you can tweak the inputs based on your assumptions to get whatever outcome you desire. There is no clear bright line answer when you are projecting fees and cash room rates 40 years from now. For me I would have never bought in if I had to finance the purchase. I don't have any personal debt (just a home mortgage) and I wouldn't take debt on to finance a vacation. This is my personal opinion (I know it's anti-American) but I also know plenty of people finance and are happy with it. I know that people always use the line DVC is not for everyone, but it is really true. You have to take your own financial situation and your own vacation habits into account to figure it all out.

One final point on ownership. It has a good possibility to change your vacation habits. If you usually only go for 1 week you may find yourself staying for 10 days because you have enough points to add on the extra nights. Sure, you will have 3 extra days of meals, but park tickets, room and airfare costs don't increase. You may also end up vacationing with friends and families more frequently. Our next trip is scheduled for a 2 bedroom villa with another couple who have kids the same age as ours. If I didn't own a DVC membership I would never be paying for their room, but now I can without putting out more money. I know this isn't saving me money, but it's making our friends and my kids very happy.

 

[DVCOwner]

Here is the issue. If you do a true economics study on this you would have to compare all cost by bring them into "current year value". So if rental room cost, dues and inflation all go up by the same amount (big guess on anyones part). Than all you can do is compare all items at the current cost of the items. $100.00 sent today is not every going to be the same as $100.00 spent yesterday or tomorrow. My guess is that point rentals and dues cost will most likely go up at the same rate. So if it is best "for you" to rent points today instead of buying, than it will be the same in years to come. If you feel that it is best "for you" to purchase DVC points today, than that will most likely be the same in years to come. You can not add inflation to one and come up with $210,000 in cost without doing the same for the other options.

One of the big reasons I purchased DVC when I did was that I have a great job now and can afford the up front cost (paid most up front and paid what I had to borrow in just two years) and I am budgeting in my retirement plans to be able to pay the dues as long as the increase stays within inflation (which by the way it has not in the last few years). When budgeting for anything, there always is a lot of guess work.

 

[Phonedave]

And you also have annual dues for 30 more years.

I'm not trying to say DVC isn't a good deal in the long run. It most certainly CAN BE. But the way Disney paints the picture isn't as clear as it is. There are many more variables than just "for a one time purchase price versus rack rates." Last year, I stayed for 7 nights in a 1 bedroom villa at the Wilderness Lodge for $1,600 by renting points. Dues alone for that many points would have cost me $1,144. That's to say nothing of the $25,000 plus for the membership, plus interest on the loan.

I get a lot of flack on here for my indecision and flip-flopping on the DVC issue, but one thing I feel VERY strongly about and won't stop doing, is informing people who are on the fence that while it can be a good deal, it's not as wonderful as Disney would have you believe.

The whole "if you go to Disney more than once a year" answer simply doesn't hold water to me. If you go more than once a year, you just need more points, which equals possibly more interest charges, and definitely more annual dues.

I agree with you on everything you said. "The if you go more than once" really should be "if you go for at least a week each year". You have to use the contract in order to save with it. If somone only goes for 4 days every 2 years, they are not going to hit that payback point until after they are dead.

And Disney is correct when they say savings over rack rates. But as you clearly point out, anyone who pays rack rates is clearly uninformed.

-dave

 

[captainkidd]

I agree with you on everything you said. "The if you go more than once" really should be "if you go for at least a week each year". You have to use the contract in order to save with it. If somone only goes for 4 days every 2 years, they are not going to hit that payback point until after they are dead.

And Disney is correct when they say savings over rack rates. But as you clearly point out, anyone who pays rack rates is clearly uninformed.

-dave

Here's the thing I don't get. I never seem to explain this well, but I'll try:

Many people (including Disney) say that the more you go, the more sense it makes. I don't understand that. If you go more, then you need more points, thus are spending more money on the contract itself, and thus spending more money on annual dues.

Of course, going more often and paying cash obviously costs you more as well. I just don't see how "going more often" is a good argument for or against DVC.

 

[Phonedave]

The discount on the AP themselves for DVC owners is a plus, but shouldn't be a determining factor in whether you join DVC or not. Anyone can get an AP, and any AP holder can get TiW. I've got both and I'm not in DVC.

And perks and discounts can change at any time. When I bought into DVC they tried to sell me on the perks. I told them that unless they were in the contract, they were just perks and were not going to effect my decision to buy or not. I did end up buying anyway because everything else worked out, but perks were not part of the equation.


-dave

 

[Phonedave]

Here's the thing I don't get. I never seem to explain this well, but I'll try:

Many people (including Disney) say that the more you go, the more sense it makes. I don't understand that. If you go more, then you need more points, thus are spending more money on the contract itself, and thus spending more money on annual dues.

Of course, going more often and paying cash obviously costs you more as well. I just don't see how "going more often" is a good argument for or against DVC.

Their going more / saving more is based on the idea of if you can save $20 a year by going one day a year, then if you go 10 days a year you will be saving $200 days a year.

Of course that is along the same lines as going into a store to buy a $100 item buying a $200 item instead because it was marked down from $250. You spend $100 more than you were going to, yeah buy I saved $50.

My point on it is more about contract size. You need to buy a contract that is sized appropriately for your needs. If you wind up with too many points, and you start loosing some as they expire because you cannot go enough to make it worthwhile, then you have a real problem. Of course you could always rent them out as well, but you would have saved more money by not buying them in the first place.

-dave

 

[GoofGoof]

The more you go, the more you save logic makes sense Only if you actually save money with DVC. If you crunched the numbers and you think you will not save money with a minimum DVC purchase than you won't save with a bigger purchase. Simple math. If I go 1 week a year to WDW and I buy enough points to cover 1 week a year let's assume I save $5,000 over 20 years vs paying a discounted cash rate. I am making up that number for the sake of the example. Now let's say I go 2 weeks a year. By that same math I save $10,000 over 20 years. I also save $150 per AP per year so assuming i am a family of 4 thats another potential $12,000 saved over 20 years. Tack on a few thousand more on merchandise discounts. I have saved more by going more. My percentage saved is not more, but my gross savings are larger. Of course this assumes you want to go 2 weeks a year and the perks continue. You will ultimately save more money, but spend more overall by going more times than you may have without DVC.

 

[stlbobby]

You will ultimately save more money, but spend more overall by going more times than you may have without DVC.

This sums it up exactly. The one other way you save is with the AP, not only do you get an AP discount, once you buy the AP each time you go your price per day drops. For me this is important because I would never invest in an AP without the stability of DVC.

 

[stlbobby]

I have no agenda and am not trying to prove that renting points is better. I'm simply at a loss to find the logic where a DVC owner thinks they have more flexibility to visit WDW than a non-owner. That makes absolutely no sense to me. Disney tries using that as a selling point, and it's ridiculous.

As far as rental prices continuing to rise, of course. And why do they? Because annual dues rise, something non-owners don't have to worry about.

I'm not trying to make a case for overall felxibility, but this just came up on these boards and it is a situation where DVC ownership or booking through WDW would provide the flexibility this poster needs. I'm not saying this is normal, but it is something I never considered with points rentals, and I doubt many others do when they rent points.

 

[captainkidd]

For me this is important because I would never invest in an AP without the stability of DVC.

What stability?

Honestly, I'm not trying to argue with you. I just don't understand what you mean. What stability does DVC provide that not owning DVC doesn't provide?

 

[ScoutN]

They cannot inflate AD like cash rooms for the sake of bottom line.

 

[captainkidd]

They cannot inflate AD like cash rooms for the sake of bottom line.

But they can (and do) increase dues every year.

But not really the point. I still don't see either option of having "stability" over the other.

 

[GoofGoof]

But they can (and do) increase dues every year.

But not really the point. I still don't see either option of having "stability" over the other.

I think his point is dues increases are regulated and can only include additional overhead costs. You get a detailed breakout of what the dues go to. They cannot and do not increase dues to make a profit.

To your point around stability I think it's just a difference of opinion.

 

[Disneykidder]

Points also won't increase. If you rent points or pay rack rate, you will pay more $$ ten years down the road but it will still "cost" me 125 points to stay a week in a studio at AKL Savannah view in August. I'm just saying...

 

[captainkidd]

Points also won't increase. If you rent points or pay rack rate, you will pay more $$ ten years down the road but it will still "cost" me 125 points to stay a week in a studio at AKL Savannah view in August. I'm just saying...

Yes, and non-owners have the possibility of paying less for their room with AAA, AP or general discounts. Or, you can rent points from someone selling them cheap. There is no 1 right answer.

 

[ScoutN]

I think his point is dues increases are regulated and can only include additional overhead costs. You get a detailed breakout of what the dues go to. They cannot and do not increase dues to make a profit.

To your point around stability I think it's just a difference of opinion.

Exactly!

 

[dreamfinder]

Points also won't increase. If you rent points or pay rack rate, you will pay more $$ ten years down the road but it will still "cost" me 125 points to stay a week in a studio at AKL Savannah view in August. I'm just saying...

Not 100% true. Total points allocated at a resort cannot change, but point cost for an individual room night can (and have) change. So if they decide to increase the point cost for all 3br villas on NYE by 10 points. (Say they have 5 3br villas) Then they would need to decrease the point cost elsewhere by 50 points. So they take 10 nights, and make then 1 pt less, or maybe make Jan 2nd 10 points less. The change doesn't have to be to the same room type, but the math usually works out cleaner if it is.

For instance, in 2010, an AKL standard view studio cost 82 points in "Adventure" season, 10 pts weekday, 16 weekend. In 2011, that same studio could cost 81 points, 11 weekday, 13 weekend. That total difference of 1 point had to be offset elsewhere

 

[captainkidd]

Not 100% true. Total points allocated at a resort cannot change, but point cost for an individual room night can (and have) change. So if they decide to increase the point cost for all 3br villas on NYE by 10 points. (Say they have 5 3br villas) Then they would need to decrease the point cost elsewhere by 50 points. So they take 10 nights, and make then 1 pt less, or maybe make Jan 2nd 10 points less. The change doesn't have to be to the same room type, but the math usually works out cleaner if it is.

For instance, in 2010, an AKL standard view studio cost 82 points in "Adventure" season, 10 pts weekday, 16 weekend. In 2011, that same studio could cost 81 points, 11 weekday, 13 weekend. That total difference of 1 point had to be offset elsewhere

Yeah, that was something I've never been crazy about, but to be fair, since I started renting points, we haven't seen much of any difference and we always go the same time of year.

But in all honesty, the bigger question to me is who cares why they can or can't raise dues? The fact is they do raise dues, every year. So they can't do it for profit. Still doesn't change the fact that dues increase, on average the same amount as hotel rates, sometimes more, sometimes less. Difference is hotel rates almost always have discounts available on them. I've never paid rack rate in my life for any hotel. Dues will never be discounted.

 

[stlbobby]

Yeah, that was something I've never been crazy about, but to be fair, since I started renting points, we haven't seen much of any difference and we always go the same time of year.

But in all honesty, the bigger question to me is who cares why they can or can't raise dues? The fact is they do raise dues, every year. So they can't do it for profit. Still doesn't change the fact that dues increase, on average the same amount as hotel rates, sometimes more, sometimes less. Difference is hotel rates almost always have discounts available on them. I've never paid rack rate in my life for any hotel. Dues will never be discounted.

I don't know why you are so hung up on these dues. They are about one night at an equivalent level room. And they don't radically change. Mine have gone from just under $4 a point to about $5.5 in more than 15 years. And it does matter that WDW can't profit from them. If they could use it as a revenue source it would be possible for them to just keep jacking them up, but since it is directly tied to the cost of upkeep it is more stable.

So essentially I get ten days to two weeks of vacations for the price of a single night every year, and that money is taken out of my account monthly instead of in a lump sum. I know this and I don't have to worry about it. That's stability. I can sit here and confidently write I will be going to WDW every year for the next thirty years barring family trauma, a major deployment, or the Florida peninsula falling into the ocean. Due to that stability I can buy my AP's and take advantage of other situations, discounts, and opportunities none of which would be possible, for me, if I weren't a DVC member.