Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[ImperfectPixie]

Yeah It sucks.

I just say what I think, even though I know everyone here hates it.

I think this wave needs to be bad.

I think it needs to be bad enough to scare the unvaccinated into action.

If this thing doesn’t spike and start effecting the younger crowd they are not going to do anything.

They always say the same things to me.

“You guys can get vaccinated I’m not at any risk so why should I?“

Not sure what’s going to change that attitude except a huge dose of reality.

I think it's going to be that bad. There are enough unvaccinated to make it bad.

 

[correcaminos]

Yeah It sucks.

I just say what I think, even though I know everyone here hates it.

I think this wave needs to be bad.

I think it needs to be bad enough to scare the unvaccinated into action.

If this thing doesn’t spike and start effecting the younger crowd they are not going to do anything.

They always say the same things to me.

“You guys can get vaccinated I’m not at any risk so why should I?“

Not sure what’s going to change that attitude except a huge dose of reality.

If December and Jan wasn't bad enough to vaccinate, what will?

While she did get sick sounds way better than some of my friends faired prior to vaccines

 

[Trauma]

I think it's going to be that bad. There are enough unvaccinated to make it bad.

Ok so let’s work thru this.

How can we make it less bad?

We can bring back masks and social distancing.

Who is overwhelmingly not going to follow the rules?

The group that is by FAR the biggest risk to everyone around them. The non vaccinated.

I will continue to argue that mitigation’s are no where near as effective they may have been in the past, due to the fact that it’s mostly the vaccinated that follow them.

You can ask me to mask up and I will.

You end up with a bunch a “safe” people being more safe while the virus continues to rage out of control.

We have the answer to this problem it’s the vaccine.

If Delta is as bad as they say, it’s time to immediately move to mandatory vaccinations or a vaccine passport.

 

[KrzyKtty]

I need to start by saying I I don't trust eveything in the NY Times. However for the most part I have trusted them on their Covid19 numbers. But they now say Florida havs an avevage of 5,576 daily cases and the country has 25,661. That is 21.73% of all the US cases are in Florida. I don't believe that is true but of it is, Florida needs to take some serious action to correct this.

From what I know multiple sources are reporting Florida had 23,000 cases last week. It seems to be damn near impossible to find their daily case numbers on their Florida health website. The daily case number is on the New York times are intermittent at best and therefore how multiple days. So I look at the week. Therefore of the 180,183 US cases last week, Florida would be 12.7%. however those numbers on the US total are probably still skewed by states like mine and Florida that don't report consistently. If you want to go on the weekly average, Florida holds about 21.6%. That's an average of reported cases I have heard from multiple news sources so saying Florida has about 25% of the cases is probably more correct than you would think.

 

[Trauma]

I just called member services. They told me I would be able to cancel my trip within the 31 day window and get my points back if mitigation’s return.

They also assured me that “mitigation’s will not be returning unless mandated by the state government.”

That was their exact words.

 

[DisneyFan32]

What states has COVID-19 Delta variant problems by fall besides NJ, NY, CA, VA, DC, PA, MA, NE, IL...?

 

[Willmark]

Good to see science working! Better data in leads to changes and better info out. You or I or anyone else did not know exactly how much could be transmit outside up until about 6-8 months ago. They had a idea but science needed more data and they got it and confirmed it so information was then released on the new data. Good thing we don’t go by “ideas” about something as serious as this and continue to do more testing.

Science wasn’t required when good old common sense (which is surprisingly uncommon these days) will suffice.

ETA: lest it get misconstrued which this site is wont to do my statements are in no way anti-science.

 

[Trauma]

That would be so sad.

Let's say we only get to 200,000,000 vaccinated in the US, leaves 130,000,000 unvaccinated left.

We've had 34,000,000 cases so far. Let's assume that's only half the real cases, so 68,000,000 cases so far.

Now, let's pretend that all of those cases are part of the people left unvaccinated. That leaves us with 62,000,000 people who are really just "unvaccinated cases that will happen in the future". We know this is false, but pretend, plus dumb luck makes these 62,000,000 slightly smaller than the pretend 68,000,000 above. Pretend they're actually same.

So, our pretend math that's being super generous to minimize the outcome says we're about halfway through infections in the US. There's as many unvaccinated people that will become cases as there as already been.

The cases so far gave us 600,000 deaths.

We're half way there. But, another 600,000 deaths feels unthinkable. Plus, the age distribution isn't equal. Let's assume three fifths, more than half, of those 600,000 were old people. A demographic that's much more vaccinated.

That would mean we've got about as many cases to go as we've already had and another 240,000 deaths before we're done.

With no mitigations, a failing vaccine roll out, never ending pockets of spread not going away, and a population that will age into more vulnerability. Sounds about right.

Get's us back to, this would be so sad.


Having 0.2% of the population die leads to employee and customer losses too. Quite literally.

Ok let’s say your math is correct I have no reason to dispute it.

How many of those deaths are avoidable?

The first 600k deaths happened before a free and easy solution was available.

We are about to have the largest number of completely preventable deaths in human history.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

@mmascari your math is pretty reckless.

You left out several key components that drastically contrast the current state of the pandemic from a year ago.

Your understanding of what proportion of vulnerable people are vaccinated is severely misguided.

80% of the 600,000 who died were over the age of 65. 90% of people over the age of 65 are vaccinated for COVID-19 (at least one shot). An unknown portion of the 10% (estimated at 20%) has immunity from prior infection. So just vaccinating that one cohort effectively reduces the mortality rate of this virus by almost 80%.

Additionally, 99.9% of people who died from COVID are over the age of 18. More than 2/3 of those people are vaccinated (at least one shot). And a significant chunk of the unvaccinated have immunity from prior infection.

Finally, re: spread. Herd immunity isn't binary. There is still widespread immunity in the population. You doubled the number of confirmed cases; in reality evidence suggests its closer to 3x that. Regardless, a virus needs hosts to spread. The R0 of this virus is significantly reduced. The risk an unvaccinated person faces today in terms of becoming infected is no where near the risk it was a year ago.

So, we can talk about case numbers all day. But if they are decoupled from deaths and hospitalizations (which so far they are, due to reduced R0 and immunity in people vulnerable to serious disease), it frankly does not matter.

People need to be responsible for their health and protect themselves via vaccination. The suggestion that a brand new pandemic is going to spawn on top of this immunity is completely baseless. The ability for the virus to spread as it did this past winter is simply not there; and there is nothing to suggest it is.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

@mmascari your math is pretty reckless.

You left out several key components that drastically contrast the current state of the pandemic from a year ago.

You're assuming the cohort of people who are unvaccinated is as proportionally vulnerable as the community was in early 2020. Unequivocally it is not.

80% of the 600,000 who died were over the age of 65. 90% of people over the age of 65 are vaccinated for COVID-19 (at least one shot). An unknown portion of the 10% (estimated at 20%) has immunity from prior infection. So just vaccinating that one cohort effectively reduces the mortality rate of this virus by almost 80%.

Additionally, 99.9% of people who died from COVID are over the age of 18. More than 2/3 of those people are vaccinated (at least one shot). And a significant chunk of the unvaccinated have immunity from prior infection.

Finally, re: spread. Herd immunity isn't binary. There is still widespread immunity in the population. You doubled the number of confirmed cases; in reality evidence suggests its closer to 3x that. Regardless, a virus needs hosts to spread. The R0 of this virus is significantly reduced. The risk an unvaccinated person faces today in terms of becoming infected is no where near the risk it was a year ago.

So, we can talk about case numbers all day. But if they are decoupled from deaths and hospitalizations (which so far they are), it frankly does not matter.

The bolded in your second-to-last paragraph is incorrect. The Delta variant is spread FAR more easily than the variant that was dominant in the US over the last year.

 

[Bob Harlem]

So, we can talk about case numbers all day. But if they are decoupled from deaths and hospitalizations (which so far they are), it frankly does not matter.

This is the biggest point here. If you match the timeframe of this exact period last year with the increase in Cases in mid July for US/Florida and compare it to the death rates then, it's a mere fraction. So effectively the cases number do not matter as much, and it almost looks like a seasonal pattern when you start comparing it against last year. US as a whole, France/UK. Where it doesn't work is in places like Brazil, Indonesia, India (Although the new case count there has cratered since the big spike) etc.

 

[ABQ]

I need to start by saying I I don't trust eveything in the NY Times. However for the most part I have trusted them on their Covid19 numbers. But they now say Florida havs an avevage of 5,576 daily cases and the country has 25,661. That is 21.73% of all the US cases are in Florida. I don't believe that is true but of it is, Florida needs to take some serious action to correct this.

Keep an eye on California, they've gone from 2700 reported cases on July 6th to 4,900 July 13th, just under a doubling of case counts, so I can see FL doing the same and also see CA ballooning. Per 100k, FL is a worse number, of course.

 

[LaughingGravy]

I would really love to know who the vaccinated elected naysayers are.

This is definitely going in the history books as the population who had what the rest of the world wished for, easy vaccination, but refused it to their peril.

If I had the opportunity to go to WDW tomorrow with all expenses paid, I wouldn't, and I am suuuuuuper thrifty.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

The bolded in your second-to-last paragraph is incorrect. The Delta variant is spread FAR more easily than the variant that was dominant in the US over the last year.

It's not incorrect. Delta may be more contagious (early estimates were overblown, by the way) but the immunity in the community outweighs that drastically.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

I would really love to know who the vaccinated elected naysayers are.

The only people I know who are not vaccinated are people who were previously infected and are positive for antibodies. And some people under 18 who chose to not get vaccinated.

 

[ABQ]

This is the biggest point here. If you match the timeframe of this exact period last year with the increase in Cases in mid July for US/Florida and compare it to the death rates then, it's a mere fraction. So effectively the cases number do not matter as much, and it almost looks like a seasonal pattern when you start comparing it against last year. US as a whole, France/UK. Where it doesn't work is in places like Brazil, Indonesia, India (Although the new case count there has cratered since the big spike) etc.

I agree with both you and the portion you quoted from @disneyglimpses

These charts from the Reuters page quoted above have some insight:

 

[ABQ]

The only people I know who are not vaccinated are people who were previously infected and are positive for antibodies. And some people under 18 who chose to not get vaccinated.

I know it's not true, but I try to tell myself that all the unvaccinated who are coming up with positive cases now are going to recover swiftly and just be another antibody positive part of the population now.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

Perhaps if we started to offer the benefits of 'vaccination' to those who suffered through infection and have immunity, we would get some more compliance.

Not only compliance but we would have a true and complete picture of regions with true vulnerability; not just on-paper unvaccinated 'vulnerability.'

But as we continue to deny immunity from prior infection (especially for those under 65), the mistrust will continue to grow and grow and grow. We are the only nation that does not recognize immunity from prior infection to at least some degree. The science is there.

We keep hearing about vaccinated people (rarely) becoming hospitalized and subsequently dying of COVID as a 'breakthrough' infection. Those reports vastly outnumber the reports of someone getting it a second time and getting seriously sick from it. At risk of looking foolish, I can't even remember seeing one report in the last 6 months of someone getting COVID a second time and getting sick. But thousands upon thousands of vaccinated people are reported to get infected.

When you ignore clear and obvious peer reviewed science, people tend to not want to trust you or your recommendations.

 

[seascape]

The increase in cases does not automaticly lead to new restrictions. What is required is more vaccinations. We were vaccinating about 2 milion a day in late January and got up to 4 million but now are under 1 milion a day. We need to do better. There is no excuse that we are not over 85% vaccinated. If the government had done its job we would be there. This is the fault of all levels of government from the President all the way down to small town mayors. This is not political but a fact that everyone needs to do better.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

The increase in cases does not automaticly lead to new restrictions. What is required is more vaccinations. We were vaccinating about 2 milion a day in late January and got up to 4 million but now are under 1 milion a day. We need to do better. There is no excuse that we are not over 85% vaccinated. If the government had done its job we would be there. This is the fault of all levels of government from the President all the way down to small town mayors. This is not political but a fact that everyone needs to do better.

Write a $1,000 stimulus to everyone who got vaccinated and gets vaccinated by August 15; no exceptions. That'll get a move on it.