oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
Here we goooooo
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
Fireworks will be back. I don't expect a lot more to come back. Maybe 1 parade per park like you said. I think we have seen the last of Citizens of Hollywood and the like. They have been slowly getting rid of them before this.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think he may be on board. He had to send 900 medical workers to staff the temporary hospital setup there for overflow.
sullyinMT
Well-Known Member
This is the way it should be, if necessary. Local and targeted. Texas is a huge state, and I couldn’t tell you where the hotspots are there. But local leaders know, and should be empowered to react.
I live in a huge geographical state. With current trends in the area, I fully expect more strict regulations in my county next week. But all of Montana shouldn’t suffer for 3 counties here raging out of control.
Honestly, it’s what California is doing, whatever we may individually think of the tiers’ feasibility (I think the thresholds are ridiculous but agree on premise). It’s also how NY and Ohio have operated (and I’m sure others). Either regionally or by county dividing the state so a whole state doesn’t “suffer” for one area’s situation.
Even Mr DeSantis tried it (in theory anyway) by keeping S FL closed longer than the rest of the state. Too bad he couldn’t stomach doing the right thing. Look at Miami-Dade and Broward now, and it’s like 25% of the state’s cases now. But God forbid SOME measures be taken.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Apparently the Judge in El Paso who ordered it, specifically said the Governor hadn't signed off on it. So I think it can go either way.
sullyinMT
Well-Known Member
At least they could get temporary help. Dr Birx was here a day or two ago and gave good guidance and support, but was basically forced to say “good luck on staffing.” That’s where we’ve lost reality. Sure, there are “yuge numbers of ventilators. Anyone who needs a ventilator gets a ventilator.” There’s not a soul to staff them.
A thought experiment.
Some numbers:
US Population: 328,239,523
COVID Infections: 8,723,616
COVID Deaths: 226,002
Deaths / Infections: 2.59%
For the experiment, let's assume the Infection count is really 10 times larger.
COVID Assumed Infections: 87,236,160
Deaths / Assumed Infections: 0.26%
Let's also assume that 60% of the population needs to be infected to achieve herd immunity. 196,943,714.
Assuming we continue to only report a tenth of the infections, the reported number needs to increase by 10,970,755 more, slightly double the current.
That would give us 196,943,714 assumed infections at 0.26% death for 510,220 deaths total. We're almost half way there now.
For the sake of this post (just pretend), ignore that if the "10 times larger" is wrong the numbers change. Just assume this is the modeled outcome, we're half way there, half a million people will die, we'll achieve herd immunity. Let's also assume that a successful vaccine is developed then so we can ignore infections in new children as the population ages, new children replace adults and the infected population drops below the 60% and allows more infections to increase again. As it's not really gone, just suppressed.
If you're totally cool with that, let it rip give this post a HaHa, in your best Simpson's voice please.
If you want total and complete lockdown, stop all interactions everywhere so the number get's no larger than it is, give this post an Angry.
Sometime tomorrow, all the HaHa people should block all the Angry and vice versus. There's no hope these two group ever agree on any points.
Somewhere in the middle, there's room for conversations on which actions help lower the number enough to be worth doing and which ones do not. Along with what actions are short term tools to lower numbers so that other longer term tools that are less restrictive can be used as community spread is reduced.
Please don't comment on how these numbers relate to reality (unless I screwed up the math consistent within the post, then flame away if I misplaced a decimal or something and I'll turn in my slide ruler), just pretend if these are the numbers.
Some numbers:
US Population: 328,239,523
COVID Infections: 8,723,616
COVID Deaths: 226,002
Deaths / Infections: 2.59%
For the experiment, let's assume the Infection count is really 10 times larger.
COVID Assumed Infections: 87,236,160
Deaths / Assumed Infections: 0.26%
Let's also assume that 60% of the population needs to be infected to achieve herd immunity. 196,943,714.
Assuming we continue to only report a tenth of the infections, the reported number needs to increase by 10,970,755 more, slightly double the current.
That would give us 196,943,714 assumed infections at 0.26% death for 510,220 deaths total. We're almost half way there now.
For the sake of this post (just pretend), ignore that if the "10 times larger" is wrong the numbers change. Just assume this is the modeled outcome, we're half way there, half a million people will die, we'll achieve herd immunity. Let's also assume that a successful vaccine is developed then so we can ignore infections in new children as the population ages, new children replace adults and the infected population drops below the 60% and allows more infections to increase again. As it's not really gone, just suppressed.
If you're totally cool with that, let it rip give this post a HaHa, in your best Simpson's voice please.
If you want total and complete lockdown, stop all interactions everywhere so the number get's no larger than it is, give this post an Angry.
Sometime tomorrow, all the HaHa people should block all the Angry and vice versus. There's no hope these two group ever agree on any points.
Somewhere in the middle, there's room for conversations on which actions help lower the number enough to be worth doing and which ones do not. Along with what actions are short term tools to lower numbers so that other longer term tools that are less restrictive can be used as community spread is reduced.
Please don't comment on how these numbers relate to reality (unless I screwed up the math consistent within the post, then flame away if I misplaced a decimal or something and I'll turn in my slide ruler), just pretend if these are the numbers.
Space Mountain supports 2,000 people an hour. That's 20,000 in a 10 hour day, and 7,300,000 in a 365 day year. If 0.26% of them died each year, 18,900 people, nobody would ride Space Mountain. Large numbers and small percentages are significant when the outcome is so severe. The actual risk is less than 0.000010% or 0.000001%, probably even lower.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Been saying this for a while now. Instead of a widespread national stay at home order we should be doing localized pull backs based on case surges, but for some people any pull back anywhere means we are going back to a full lockdown.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Even better if the infection rate is 25X the reported number that means we already hit herd immunity and our “crazy uncle“ was right that we have already beaten the Coronavirus.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Maybe go back to the restrictions they lifted last week?
Los Angeles County lifts more restrictions as rise in COVID-19 cases causes worry
Los Angeles County health officials said Wednesday that while the county has seen major drops in coronavirus case numbers over the past three months, there have been "concerning" upticks in recent weeks delaying a move to a less-restrictive tier of the state's economic reopening roadmap.
Maybe go back to the restrictions they lifted last week?
Los Angeles County lifts more restrictions as rise in COVID-19 cases causes worry
Los Angeles County health officials said Wednesday that while the county has seen major drops in coronavirus case numbers over the past three months, there have been "concerning" upticks in recent weeks delaying a move to a less-restrictive tier of the state's economic reopening roadmap.www.foxla.com
Do you really think those actual restrictions lifted last week caused this?
Hasn't then been the case a lot of places? It is in Illinois.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Yes it has, but it triggers a lot of people in the we will never lock down again camp. Some people see this as linear, where you reopen and can’t look back.
RichKermitFan
Active Member
The media would love it.
No I'm sorry, i read it wrong. Or it was reported wrong because article is gone.
Which is good because it made me nervous that somewhere with such strict lockdowns had so many cases. That's why I was asking what do we do now!
sullyinMT
Well-Known Member
While I can’t “like” this thought on principle, because those are 5k hospital beds in the future, it would at least give the media something to talk about at their fancy, socially distant desk. Results to watch since we won’t have official outcomes for the big race we’ll all be tuning in to follow.
Maybe John King and Bill Hemmer can break down county numbers for hard hit states and show people what’s going on when they won’t stop having dinner parties, weddings, and other private gatherings (since I’m convinced that’s the biggest driver, just ahead of packing bars where it’s allowed).
Chomama
Well-Known Member
Hey I was born in Barrington!!! Don’t live there anymore but stillOr Barrington. I get it. Still an honest question.
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