Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[xdan0920]

So your position is that the virus naturally starts to decline and it's just a coincidence that the decline in NJ is timed perfectly with the known incubation period and time it takes to get test results? And it's just a coincidence that FL saw a spike in cases within a similar time period of reopening? If there's a "natural curve" to this virus, then why does the curve in FL show a small bump in April followed by a decline and then a huge spike when they reopened? That's not the curve in NJ or NY. If there's a natural curve then it should be the same everywhere.

My position is we did more harm then good with our lockdowns. They don’t work because the very limited impact they have doesn’t justify their cost. I can’t be more clear.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

He made it up. It’s honestly that simple.

And you know this how?

 

[hopemax]

So your position is that the virus naturally starts to decline and it's just a coincidence that the decline in NJ is timed perfectly with the known incubation period and time it takes to get test results? And it's just a coincidence that FL saw a spike in cases within a similar time period of reopening? If there's a "natural curve" to this virus, then why does the curve in FL show a small bump in April followed by a decline and then a huge spike when they reopened? That's not the curve in NJ or NY. If there's a natural curve then it should be the same everywhere.

And somehow Brazil is immune from this natural decline.

 

[xdan0920]

Exactly, and I hope people will stop participating in this attempt to gaslight and derail the thread.

Separating infected people from healthy people has been a tactic for disease control since at least the Bible was written. The word quarantine comes from a practice of isolating ships since the time of the black death. Every zombie movie in existence is about people trying to keep themselves separated. No movie ever says, "lets just keep acting like everything like normal" where zombies are running around. It would be a dumb plot, and we all know it. Since we don't have an easy way to identify who is sick while they are contagious, and we are unwilling to weld people into their apartment buildings, we have lockdown and not full quarantine. Sure, it is imperfect, and people will continue to be infected. That does not make it ineffective.

It's up to the other guy to prove that they don't work. The only reason that this is even a line of contention is that this disease is, thankfully, not serious enough to be plague or zombie level. And we're only a quarter of the way through, so a hugely incomplete data set. So the obfuscation and denial games can reign. But if one side is "all of human history," they don't need to be the ones supplying the proof.

Nonsense. We didn’t quarantine. We locked down. Different things. Don’t conflate the two.

 

[Horizons '83]

Laughable. Not backed up by any data. He’s making that up from whole clothe.

Using the same data source you used earlier:

April 20th is were the arrow I drew is. That is when the opening began. the US is around 72% stringency, the others from 92 to 75. There is your data.

 

[xdan0920]

It's up to the other guy to prove that they don't work.

No. It’s up to you to prove they work. The costs were so great, so overwhelming, so tragic, that the lockdown has to be full proof. It has to be proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that the price we paid was worth it.

 

[Andrew C]

Separating infected people from healthy people has been a tactic for disease control since at least the Bible was written. The word quarantine comes from a practice of isolating ships since the time of the black death.

To be fair, we didn’t do this. Most countries didn’t do this. Most went for a lockdown which is different.

 

[xdan0920]

Using the same data source you used earlier:
View attachment 488167
April 20th is were the arrow I drew is. That is when the opening began. the US is around 72% stringency, the others from 92 to 75. There is your data.

Thanks. So I was right. He made it up.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Today, Fauci stated the reason that our curve didn’t initially drop from the peak as much as Europe is that we essentially did a 50% lockdown while Europe did a 90% lockdown. Therefore, our baseline cases ended up higher. My question is, what would our baseline have looked like if we didn’t do a lockdown but rather just did the typical social distancing efforts and mask wearing (maybe similar to Sweden)? Would we have received the same results. Just curious. Also, what would a 90% lockdown have looked like here and would it have been a feasible consideration? Remember earlier on, we had 15 days to slow the spread. Then 30 days to slow the spread while allowing states to put in stricter measures. And then reopening guidelines, which were followed by some states but not others. Or only partially followed.

Also, we know the virus impacted the northeast earlier than some of the southern states like Florida. Just a different timetable. However, all locked down essentially at the same time. What if Florida delayed their lockdown for a month but still stayed locked for same amount of time once they did shutter? Where would they be today? Again, just things I’m thinking about. Hah.

I think we would've been okay if we'd opened up with people acting more cautiously. Where I am we had average daily cases about 30-50. The benchmarks needed to reopen were easily hit. We were steady and even dropping a little for a month. But then people stopped distancing and weren't wearing masks (and officials weren't allowed to require masks). After a couple weeks we were at 150/day, then over 200, and last week was 800 daily cases. I think people underestimated how long they'd need to change and the "mild" situation we had lulled them into a false sense of security.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

He made it up.

Again, you know this how?

 

[Horizons '83]

Thanks. So I was right. He made it up.

Wrong once again. We opened up to early was the answer I was looking for, based on the same data you wanted to share with me earlier. It's been fun today but I think I've had my fill in this particular thread.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

He made it up. It’s honestly that simple.

Anyways, let me show you a real life way this goes....

In my town we have had 1 case in July. 1 single case.

Schools are opening part time only, with an option for full virtual.

This is the endgame here folks. We let the fear, the panic, the hysteria get the best of us. And look where it leaves us.

I’ve heard it all now. He made it up. The leading man in infectious diseases.. the man who with the help of others has come up with cures for at least three fatal diseases..a man who has served every president since Reagan.. is now going on air and making things up. Your right, it’s laughable. I think that’s a yeti behind you, watch yourself.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I think that’s a yeti behind you, watch yourself.

Heyyyy...did you make that up?

 

[Andrew C]

I’ve heard it all now. He made it up. The leading man in infectious diseases.. the man who with the help of others has come up with cures for at least three fatal diseases..a man who has served every president since Reagan.. is now going on air and making things up. Your right, it’s laughable. I think that’s a yeti behind you, watch yourself.

I don’t think it’s wrong to question where he got those numbers, just like it’s not wrong for people to question why he generally supports school reopenings.

 

[xdan0920]

Alright, this is bad for my mental health, @GoofGoof @Andrew C @willtravel I’ll see you guys on the other side of this.

I’ll swing through in a month and we can compare Florida/Georgia to NY/NJ and see who handled it better.

Enjoy the rest of your summers.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I don’t think it’s wrong to question where he got those numbers, just like it’s not wrong for people to question why he generally supports school reopenings.

There’s no problem is questioning things. In fact I think most things should be questioned especially when coming from sources that aren’t recognized as legit like many we see posted here. There’s also a think called benefit of doubt, which I and most will give to people well respected in their fields. Not that you don’t question them but you know if you do, it usually is 99.9 percent correct with the info at the time. If he gave those numbers, I’m going to say he has he data or study to back it up. I’m sure he will he asked about it and we will have a answer in the next day or so.

 

[DCBaker]

"Universal Orlando Resort laid off an undisclosed number of workers Friday, a day after its parent company revealed the stark financial picture of the coronavirus’ impact.

Universal didn’t say how many people were laid off or in what departments. A notice had not yet been filed with the state Friday, but the news of the layoffs circulated throughout social media."

"For those employees, the company will provide severance pay, subsidized health benefits and reemployment assistance, Universal spokesman Tom Schroder said in an email.

“We are prioritizing daily operations and shorter-term projects and continuing our pause on longer-term projects such as Epic Universe as we allow the tourism industry to recover,” Schroder’s statement said. “We have again made the difficult decision to reduce our workforce to reflect current priorities and needs. As always, we are aware of the impact this will have on those affected by this decision and their families.”

"The troubles aren’t unique in Orlando as some furloughed SeaWorld Orlando and Walt Disney World employees haven’t been called back to work. Rosen Hotels and Resorts laid off nearly 2,000 people effective Friday."

Universal cuts workforce as theme parks face major hurdles from pandemic

Universal Orlando Resort laid off an undisclosed number of workers Friday, a day after its parent company revealed the stark financial picture of the coronavirus’ impact. Universal didn&#8217…

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[hopemax]

To be fair, we didn’t do this. Most countries didn’t do this. Most went for a lockdown which is different.

The effect it is accomplishing is the same. Infected people are separated from healthy people. Declaring them different is the obfuscation. 100% lockdown, no movement of people anywhere would equal quarantine. We turned the temperature down to 350 vs 500, but it's still the same oven. We could have called what we're doing a partial-quarantine, but it's just a name.

Here is an example of how quarantine is described in a post-SARS publication. (so pre-all of this). What we have been doing is the middle version. It's not personal but communal. It's not extreme. But still fits the definition of quarantine. Quarantine is a range, it's not a stringent set of conditions.

ISOLATION AND QUARANTINE: CONTAINMENT STRATEGIES FOR SARS 2003 - Learning from SARS - NCBI Bookshelf

"Quarantine encompasses a range of strategies that can be used to detain, isolate, or conditionally release individuals or populations infected or exposed to contagious diseases, and should be tailored to particular circumstances. Quarantine activities can range from only passive or active symptom monitoring or short-term voluntary home curfew, all the way to cancellation of public gatherings, closing public transportation, or, under extreme circumstances, to a cordon sanitaire: a barrier erected around a geographic area, with strict enforcement prohibiting movement in or out."

 

[Chip Chipperson]

My position is we did more harm then good with our lockdowns. They don’t work because the very limited impact they have doesn’t justify their cost. I can’t be more clear.

How do you define "very limited impact?" The lockdown measures led to a verifiable decline in cases and deaths. Compare the states that opened quickly and widely with the states that didn't and you see the impact as clear as day. 30 days after NJ's peak 7-day average daily death count, the 7-day average daily death count dropped 53.48% (316 on 4/21 to 147 on 5/21). Meanwhile, FL's 7-day average daily deaths have quadrupled over the last 30 days from 38 on 6/30 to 152 on 7/30. By the way, FL's 7-day average daily deaths stayed within 30- 39 every day from May 14 to July 1. They started opening back up in mid-June and deaths started increasing in early July, just like many here predicted. If lockdowns had a "very limited impact" then there wouldn't be such a large disparity in deaths over the course of a month in those 2 situations (NJ vs. FL).

This is all using the same Worldometers data from my earlier post, by the way, so you can check the NJ totals and get FL's from this link (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/) to verify my math if you're inclined to do so.

 

[Horizons '83]

"Universal Orlando Resort laid off an undisclosed number of workers Friday, a day after its parent company revealed the stark financial picture of the coronavirus’ impact.

Universal didn’t say how many people were laid off or in what departments. A notice had not yet been filed with the state Friday, but the news of the layoffs circulated throughout social media."

"For those employees, the company will provide severance pay, subsidized health benefits and reemployment assistance, Universal spokesman Tom Schroder said in an email.

“We are prioritizing daily operations and shorter-term projects and continuing our pause on longer-term projects such as Epic Universe as we allow the tourism industry to recover,” Schroder’s statement said. “We have again made the difficult decision to reduce our workforce to reflect current priorities and needs. As always, we are aware of the impact this will have on those affected by this decision and their families.”"

"The troubles aren’t unique in Orlando as some furloughed SeaWorld Orlando and Walt Disney World employees haven’t been called back to work. Rosen Hotels and Resorts laid off nearly 2,000 people effective Friday."

Universal cuts workforce as theme parks face major hurdles from pandemic

Universal Orlando Resort laid off an undisclosed number of workers Friday, a day after its parent company revealed the stark financial picture of the coronavirus’ impact. Universal didn&#8217…

www.orlandosentinel.com

Just crazy to think a year ago the industry was in a much different situation. I remember folks here talking about raising ticket prices to $200 a day to thin out the crowds. The demand will certainly be there when normality returns but that might be a few years.