Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[21stamps]

I doubt the Parks will be jammed. It’s going to take time for things to return to normal. I personally think the economy has the potential to bounce back a little faster than some people here.

I hope you’re correct on all points!

 

[alphac2005]

Thank you for the sacrifices you’re making. seriously thank you.

You are also being paid. This isn’t about the recession per say. This is about the government not putting things in place that protect the American people from losing their homes and things due to something out of their control.

if the government said ‘halt all mortgages, car payments, and all other bills for the next 6 months’ trust me- people would gleefully stay home. But every day I see landlords saying ‘too bad I need the money too’... and they DO! There’s no winning here. For the sick, jobless, to be homeless. The entire thing is a s*** show from all fronts. We cannot discount the economic fears and we cannot be complacent about covid19. That’s why more needs to be done to protect everyone - health wise AND economically.

I suggest you pay greater attention to what programs are being rolled out as that's precisely what most lenders are beginning to do and they're working on it on the federal side too. Most major mortgage lenders are allowing for at least a three month skip in mortgage payments and that is being looked at on the the side for renters as well. Vehicle payments are being waived for 3-4 months with most major car lenders. It's beginning.

I'm on the political side and won't go through all of that here other to say that another package is being readied. The idea is that for practical purposes, the U.S. government is going to pay for people to stay home, cover their wages and in you case, I'm assuming you'll be receiving a payment from the treasury, which is $1,200 per adult and $500 per child in the household under the age of 17. That emergency measure is designed to keep people current while the next phase of economic bailout comes.

It's a false narrative to compare this to the flu and cancer. As the doctor noted above, this has the potential to rage out of control and collapse our medical system. Take all those flu cases, cancer, heart attacks, etc, and without an ability to treat those people, the mortality rate in this country explodes because people who already needed to be attended to can't be.

The U.S. government can print money and that's what is beginning to happen here in this situation. You will be solvent. The same thing is happening in other countries around the world.

 

[GoofGoof]

Your comments have been very interesting @lilypgirl. So allow me to give a perspective from a physician's point of view.

I am a family med doc in Northern Indiana. We have 32 cases "officially" [though we received 5 more positives this am so it's not entirely accurate.] Currently, I am sitting in the atrium of our testing facility waiting for people to drive up to be swabbed and so had some down time. Imagine my distress then at reading some of your rather callous comments.

To give you some context, I suspended my family medicine practice so I could come do this at least through the end of April. I am a sub for our urgent care and they needed another physician on the team. So here I am. I see my own patients virtually 1.5 days per week and work urgent care swabbing somewhere between 2-4 days per week/weekend.

I am exhausted. Everyone here is exhausted. Our PPE supply is holding for now but it's not great either. Our two local hospitals are not yet overwhelmed but between the two of them, there are approximately 700 beds to serve a 300-450K population. It won't be enough. And people will die because of it.

Yes, the overall survival rate is 98% and we can't put life on hold forever. Recessions do hurt. I don't think anyone would argue with you. But I'm grateful for our stay at home order currently. And I want it to stay that way. Why? Because if we go back to work too soon, the chances of utter medical system collapse in this relatively small metro area are high. Now magnify that on a global scale.

Do you wish to be Italy? Because we are heading that way. The current orders in place everywhere are not to stop the virus. The virus is here. The measures in place are to try to slow its spread now. And to save the medical system. Not every place will succeed. And certainly not in the US, where I see many people ignoring the stay in place orders.

This thing is NOT the flu. It's highly contagious. The chances you wind up hospitalized are 40-50%, yes, even in a younger and lower risk crowd. There was a story of a 33 year old dying yesterday from this. I am 31. As a health care worker, my risk of getting this and dying from this is higher -- somewhere around 5%. And it will raise if we get back going too quickly. I have swabbed three local physicians in the past day alone.

And yet I still come to work. I know that risk but I take the Hippocratic Oath seriously. So here I am. Serving people as I was trained to do.

So, I'll ask you... Who are you willing to sacrifice to get back to work? Your grandmother? Your parents? Your brothers? And when there is no one like me left to care for you, what then will you do?

Your comments have made me feel like my life is worth the sacrifice for your 401[k]. To that I say, how dare you.

Thanks for what you are doing.

I have a friend who works as an ER nurse. She has spent several nights sleeping in her car in the garage because she doesn‘t want to get her kids and husband sick and is afraid of what she might be bringing home. One of the lost aspects of the strategy of just letting the disease run rampant is the strain that leaves on our medical professionals who are much more likely to end up infected. I know nurses and doctors have experience working long and difficult hours, but everyone has a breaking point.

 

[xdan0920]

I doubt the Parks will be jammed. It’s going to take time for things to return to normal. I personally think the economy has the potential to bounce back a little faster than some people here.

All depends on the timeline. The payroll protection act should help a lot. Assuming we are back to work in 6 weeks. If this really stretches through the summer. Then we are talking years before things come back.

I don’t know what the exact ratio will be, but I imagine it will be something like....
If we are back up and running as a country in 6-8 weeks, then a recovery could get rolling almost immediately, and take maybe 2 years. (All guerrilla math guesswork) Then after 8 weeks, each additional week will be exponentially worse. So maybe a 1:26 ration. Each week we are closed adds 6 months to the recession. After 12 weeks maybe it’s 1:52, And at that point we are probably looking at a depression not a recession.

Very scary stuff.

 

[HongKongFooy]

Free dining won't cut it, no even close. That stunt has been practiced before during off seasons, sluggish economies and flight phobia days.


By the time the dust settles in central Florida the hotels outside of Disney will be selling rooms for 40 cents on the dollar......maybe even down to 25. Watch it unfold.
Disney will have to adjust DRASTICALLY to attract an out of work, stock depleted/401 evaporated scared to spend, broken down defeated public.

 

[zengoth]

I would think the low hanging fruit would be the locals.

Wow, I haven't been called low hanging fruit since college...

 

[Patcheslee]

I'm just throwing this out as a hopeful thought. DW isn't allowing hotel reservations before June 1st at this point. But this also gives them the opportunity to open parks only if the government clears them earlier. Without the resort guests that may help control crowds and give locals the chance to visit.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm just throwing this out as a hopeful thought. DW isn't allowing hotel reservations before June 1st at this point. But this also gives them the opportunity to open parks only if the government clears them earlier. Without the resort guests that may help control crowds and give locals the chance to visit.

I said this earlier, but it could be a big giant soft opening. Keeps the crowds lower and allows the CMs time to work out the kinks of the new social distancing requirements being rolled out.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

By the time the dust settles in central Florida the hotels outside of Disney will be selling rooms for 40 cents on the dollar......maybe even down to 25. Watch it unfold.

I can definitely see that. The Palm Pkwy hotels especially. The dynamic on Idrive is a bit different. North of Sandlake you tend to get that same type of crowd. South of it is your business traveler/conventioneer.

To me that's where the deals will be. Hilton Orlando, Hyatt, and the like. You may see $99 room rates there until the corp travel scene starts to recover.

 

[surfsupdon]

People eating on the dining plan stick to what is included in their plan. Those who are paying cash have the ability, and often do, spend significantly more. So a server working a cash table has the potential to earn 18% of a much higher total.

Whenever a Disney restaurant is full for day-of reservations and I am politely told sorry, I smile and say we are not on the Dining Plan AND will be paying cash and most always we get seated. Brown Derby, Ohana, Tokyo Dining, Narcoossee’s, and Mama Melrose for example.

 

[nickys]

Correct. You have to purchase at least 2 days worth of tickets.

You could put the value of that ticket towards another AP later on.

 

[21stamps]

Never said that either... I feel you are taking my words and trying to read into them what you specifically want.

As I already acknowledged, yes, they are likely skewed. I don't need my state to tell me that. I'm living this. Every day. I get new data to go through every day. Would you like to know what I do at 10 am every morning? Refresh the state website so I can get the new state numbers and look at where it's spread by county.

I've swabbed Monday, Thursday, Saturday, now Sunday, then tomorrow, and then Wednesday. You don't need to tell me there aren't enough tests.

That doesn't change the fact that if this is not done carefully, it's only going to result in unnecessary deaths. But by all means, go back to work next week if you so desire. I'm sure your parents will thank you when you bring this to their doorstep if its done too soon. Or your elderly neighbor. Or your coworker with diabetes. Or...

I don't know what to tell you man. I'm in this for the long haul. up until I get sick. I expect to get sick. There is going to have to be a balance, yes, but we aren't at the peak in my state. We aren't at the peak in majority of states. Until that point, I'll continue to be grateful for the state at home orders. I'll leave it at that.

I was questioning your statement of “40-50% of infected people, young or old, will require hospitalization”. It simply isn’t true.
My sister and brother in law are both still going to their hospital every day, seeing the less serious patients via teletherapy, seeing the others in person. If they thought that such a statement was true, I can guarantee you that they wouldn’t be going home to their children every evening. They would have sent them to stay somewhere else.

I'm just throwing this out as a hopeful thought. DW isn't allowing hotel reservations before June 1st at this point. But this also gives them the opportunity to open parks only if the government clears them earlier. Without the resort guests that may help control crowds and give locals the chance to visit.

I also want to note that reservations haven’t been canceled, at least not April 19th check in.

 

[marni1971]

I also want to note that reservations haven’t been canceled, at least not April 19th check in.

Give it a few weeks.

 

[GoofGoof]

All depends on the timeline. The payroll protection act should help a lot. Assuming we are back to work in 6 weeks. If this really stretches through the summer. Then we are talking years before things come back.

I don’t know what the exact ratio will be, but I imagine it will be something like....
If we are back up and running as a country in 6-8 weeks, then a recovery could get rolling almost immediately, and take maybe 2 years. (All guerrilla math guesswork) Then after 8 weeks, each additional week will be exponentially worse. So maybe a 1:26 ration. Each week we are closed adds 6 months to the recession. After 12 weeks maybe it’s 1:52, And at that point we are probably looking at a depression not a recession.

Very scary stuff.

The government money helps people get past the crisis. Some who are not impacted will have the extra money and potentially use it on a vacation. The rest will use it to cover bills and buy food.

As far as timing goes it’s not just the economic impact. A large portion of people who have the means to visit WDW who are locking themselves down now aren’t going to suddenly be comfortable hopping on a plane, staying in a hotel and visiting crowded parks. People will ease back into life. Keep to themselves for a while then maybe visit a few favorite restaurants or a local mall. I think it will be several months before people will be comfortable traveling for long periods of time and that assumes no new surges of virus. I think late fall into the December holiday season could start to see an uptick in visitors but it may be a year or longer before we see a return to anything like normal crowds.

The one thing that could accelerate all of this is if they do come out with a test for antibodies and it’s proven that you are immune once infected more people could come out sooner. If the infection rate is really much higher than what the current testing shows a lot of us could be immune already.

 

[ifan]

Thank you to the Dr doing the swabbing for your hard work! One important correction though: The hospitalization rate is not 40-50% but more like 15-20%. It was 20% in the early countries, and we've been seeing lower rates in the US (even in NY.) The ICU rate is even lower at under 5%. 3.5% in NY. And the ventilation rate is even lower than that. (those poor individuals on vents, most will probably not survive and die with no family by their side. Heartbreaking.)

The models show Indiana (where you are) as having a very high chance of running out of both regular beds as well as ICU beds, but Chicago is expanding rapidly and will have enough beds. I'd guess that some patients will be transferred from NW Indiana to Chicago in 2 weeks or so. (My fam member was already seeing patients coming from Indiana to Chicago hospitals weeks ago.)

 

[Prince-1]

No one will be going in Apri, May, or June unless there is a major breakthrough which at this time seems highly unlikely.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Here is a tid bit and all can take it anyway they want.

Last night my wife was talking to a cousin of hers that works in a Palm coast Florida hospital. She states the hospital is mobbed with folks saying they have “it”. Those who fit the criteria get tested. As of yesterday do you know how many people that were tested were positive......................... ZERO.

This person has no reason the give wrong or misleading info. I don’t know what to make of this.......

 

[Jwink]

I suggest you pay greater attention to what programs are being rolled out as that's precisely what most lenders are beginning to do and they're working on it on the federal side too. Most major mortgage lenders are allowing for at least a three month skip in mortgage payments and that is being looked at on the the side for renters as well. Vehicle payments are being waived for 3-4 months with most major car lenders. It's beginning.

I'm on the political side and won't go through all of that here other to say that another package is being readied. The idea is that for practical purposes, the U.S. government is going to pay for people to stay home, cover their wages and in you case, I'm assuming you'll be receiving a payment from the treasury, which is $1,200 per adult and $500 per child in the household under the age of 17. That emergency measure is designed to keep people current while the next phase of economic bailout comes.

It's a false narrative to compare this to the flu and cancer. As the doctor noted above, this has the potential to rage out of control and collapse our medical system. Take all those flu cases, cancer, heart attacks, etc, and without an ability to treat those people, the mortality rate in this country explodes because people who already needed to be attended to can't be.

The U.S. government can print money and that's what is beginning to happen here in this situation. You will be solvent. The same thing is happening in other countries around the world.

Actually not all mortgages are doing that. Y mortgage offers a 3 month forbearance. At the end of that 3 months I owe all my 3 months tacked on to the next 12 months. So my mortgage jumps by about $350 a month! It’s not helpful.

I haven’t made arrangements with the cars etc because we still have some income and I’m not sure if I should do it now or wait.

 

[DisneyDoctor]

Here is a tid bit and all can take it anyway they want.

Last night my wife was talking to a cousin of hers that works in a Palm coast Florida hospital. She states the hospital is mobbed with folks saying they have “it”. Those who fit the criteria get tested. As of yesterday do you know how many people that were tested were positive......................... ZERO.

This person has no reason the give wrong or misleading info. I don’t know what to make of this.......

I wouldn't make anything of it. It's anecdotal.

 

[ifan]

Here is a tid bit and all can take it anyway they want.

Last night my wife was talking to a cousin of hers that works in a Palm coast Florida hospital. She states the hospital is mobbed with folks saying they have “it”. Those who fit the criteria get tested. As of yesterday do you know how many people that were tested were positive......................... ZERO.

This person has no reason the give wrong or misleading info. I don’t know what to make of this.......

There are a lot of reasons why this could happen.
1) There are lots of other infectious respiratory viruses going around: colds, flus, etc.
2) The test is not 100% accurate. The viral load needs to be high enough to be detected in the test AND the test has to be conducted properly. This doesn't always happen. There are definitely false negatives. Once the virus progresses into the lungs, the test is also less likely to be picked up from the nasal swab (mucus or sputum would probably be more accurate)
3) Florida is earlier in the curve than some other states. Within a week or two, it will be much more obvious within the hospitals who is positive without even conducting testing. Clinical diagnosis.
4) Some people are just crazy and want to be tested even though they have no symptoms...

BUT: IF these individuals have coughs or fevers - they are likely infectious with SOMETHING and need to stay home regardless of a test result.