Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Please take all media reports with a grain of salt.

**all** indeed. Or if not all then very close to it

Maybe one positive thing to come out of the COVID pandemic is people finally realizing that "news media" is a business and not some altruistic entity that only seeks to inform the public with the truth of everything.

Headlines were invented so that people would be enticed to purchase newspapers and the motivation for publishing them was to sell copies.

 

[DisneyCane]

I have serious doubts on what is even being reported. With the amount of at home tests (which is a good thing), how can they even properly gauge the numbers? I tested positive Wednesday but the state would never know. I even looked online to see if I could at least report my positivity, but couldn't find anything.

No positives tests are counted in the stats unless they are laboratory confirmed. If you want your positive test to be recorded, you have to go get a test done by a laboratory.

 

[Heelz2315]

I have serious doubts on what is even being reported. With the amount of at home tests (which is a good thing), how can they even properly gauge the numbers? I tested positive Wednesday but the state would never know. I even looked online to see if I could at least report my positivity, but couldn't find anything.

I think they base it on actual numbers of folks who went to the DR/Hospital because they were sick. But I'm not 100% sure.

 

[Andrew C]

how can they even properly gauge the numbers?

When it comes to case count..they can’t. Or it’s extremely difficult and just an estimate. As a previous poster mentioned, states typically just report out lab confirmed cases. Some post “probable cases” too, whatever that means. That’s why anytime I’m interested in seeing where we are, I just look at hospitalizations.

 

[Andrew C]

It took over the last 30 days for the US hospitalization 7 day average to double (or almost double)...from about 10K to 20K. At the same time, ICU numbers increased from about 1.5K to 2.1K. That slow curve is looking quite a big different that any previous curve...

 

[willtravel]

Please take all media reports with a grain of salt.

I think that can also be applied to the science community at times also.

 

[mmascari]

I have serious doubts on what is even being reported. With the amount of at home tests (which is a good thing), how can they even properly gauge the numbers?

You can look at the positivity percent along with the case number.

If the positivity is low for the state, they must be doing some extra testing and outreach beyond just people doing home tests and not reporting.

If the positivity is high for the state, then the case count is going to be low and there's lots more cases out there. Either home testing or just unknown. There's no good way to to know which of those.

Looks like the US is over 10% positivity, so some amount of under count nationally. It's not distributed equally though.
CA 6%
MA 9%
PA 16%
NY (not NYC) 11%
MD 10%
FL 17%

Meaning, the CA undercount is likely less than the PA or FL under count, and the others somewhere in the middle. I didn't get lucky and find one under 5%. I'm guessing there isn't one. If we're lucky, they're all home testing and just not reporting. If we're unlucky, they're mostly people that just don't know and are out spreading to others.

 

[Heelz2315]

At that rate the wave will hopefully be over or at least peaked before alot of damage can be done hospitalization wise.

It took over the last 30 days for the US hospitalization 7 day average to double (or almost double)...from about 10K to 20K. At the same time, ICU numbers increased from about 1.5K to 2.1K. That slow curve is looking quite a big different that any previous curve...

View attachment 640530

 

[danlb_2000]

When it comes to case count..they can’t. Or it’s extremely difficult and just an estimate. As a previous poster mentioned, states typically just report out lab confirmed cases. Some post “probable cases” too, whatever that means. That’s why anytime I’m interested in seeing where we are, I just look at hospitalizations.

Here is the CDC page on what is considered a probable case:

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) 2021 Case Definition | CDC

Access the 2021 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) case definition; uniform criteria used to define a disease for public health surveillance.

ndc.services.cdc.gov

Basically it means someone had a positive antigen test but no PCR test, or they are showing symptoms and had close contact with someone who had a probable or confirmed case.

 

[Andrew C]

Here is the CDC page on what is considered a probable case:

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) 2021 Case Definition | CDC

Access the 2021 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) case definition; uniform criteria used to define a disease for public health surveillance.

ndc.services.cdc.gov

Basically it means someone had a positive antigen test but no PCR test, or they are showing symptoms and had close contact with someone who had a probable or confirmed case.

Thanks!

 

[Nubs70]

You can look at the positivity percent along with the case number.

If the positivity is low for the state, they must be doing some extra testing and outreach beyond just people doing home tests and not reporting.

If the positivity is high for the state, then the case count is going to be low and there's lots more cases out there. Either home testing or just unknown. There's no good way to to know which of those.

Looks like the US is over 10% positivity, so some amount of under count nationally. It's not distributed equally though.
CA 6%
MA 9%
PA 16%
NY (not NYC) 11%
MD 10%
FL 17%

Meaning, the CA undercount is likely less than the PA or FL under count, and the others somewhere in the middle. I didn't get lucky and find one under 5%. I'm guessing there isn't one. If we're lucky, they're all home testing and just not reporting. If we're unlucky, they're mostly people that just don't know and are out spreading to others.

My local area has a "Medium" positivity as defined by State Health Department. Local hospital is seeing a 20+% positivity rate

 

[MisterPenguin]

It took over the last 30 days for the US hospitalization 7 day average to double (or almost double)...from about 10K to 20K. At the same time, ICU numbers increased from about 1.5K to 2.1K. That slow curve is looking quite a big different that any previous curve...

View attachment 640530

Does anyone know if there is a clear intention to separate out those in the hospital *because* of COVID from those in the hospital who also happen to test positive from COVID?

I think the really important stats to follow are those in ICU and rate of deaths.

 

[Andrew C]

Does anyone know if there is a clear intention to separate out those in the hospital *because* of COVID from those in the hospital who also happen to test positive from COVID?

Good question…which I don’t have the answer to..

 

[Mark52479]

I think OC in FL will be in the "high" category in the next 2 weeks or so.

I wouldn't expect any movement at all from WDW when OC does go to "high" category.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Just read about an FDA official who says they're not as concerned with vaccines reaching the 50% threshold for *preventing infection* because the new Omicron variants sidestep the current vaccines' effectiveness in that regard.

However, they're more concerned about the current vaccines preventing severe disease (being hospitalized) and preventing deaths. And the current vaccines are still effective in that regard.

So... we will see infection rates continue to climb while hospitalization, ICU, and death rates remain low.

Of course this can all change if a new variant can dodge the vaccines with regard to infection *and* severe disease and death.

 

[Mark52479]

Just read about an FDA official who says they're not as concerned with vaccines reaching the 50% threshold for *preventing infection* because the new Omicron variants sidestep the current vaccines' effectiveness in that regard.

However, they're more concerned about the current vaccines preventing severe disease (being hospitalized) and preventing deaths. And the current vaccines are still effective in that regard.

So... we will see infection rates continue to climb while hospitalization, ICU, and death rates remain low.

Of course this can all change if a new variant can dodge the vaccines with regard to infection *and* severe disease and death.

If a new variant comes out that can dodge vaccines, then THAT is when we might start to see more restrictions.

 

[MisterPenguin]

If a new variant comes out that can dodge vaccines, then THAT is when we might start to see more restrictions.

As I mentioned, the current Omicron variants are indeed already dodging vaccines with regard to *infections.* That's why infection rates are going up everywhere.

What would be worrisome if they could dodge the vaccines effectiveness in preventing *serious disease* and *death."

The previous infections got their foot shot off if they got their foot in the door. The new Omicron variants are getting in the house, but they're being machine-gunned before they can take over.

 

[danlb_2000]

Does anyone know if there is a clear intention to separate out those in the hospital *because* of COVID from those in the hospital who also happen to test positive from COVID?

I think the really important stats to follow are those in ICU and rate of deaths.

Since there is less testing going on now, the "with COVID" numbers are also useful in gauging how much community spread there is.

 

[Heelz2315]

I think OC in FL will be in the "high" category in the next 2 weeks or so.

I wouldn't expect any movement at all from WDW when OC does go to "high" category.

Orange Co is still in the low as of this week. I think by mid June they’ll be headed toward high for sure.

Curious to get your reasoning as to why WDW won’t have any movement of and when they do go into high. I’ve been trying to figure out how they decide what for months now

 

[SingleRider]

Orange Co is still in the low as of this week. I think by mid June they’ll be headed toward high for sure.

Curious to get your reasoning as to why WDW won’t have any movement of and when they do go into high. I’ve been trying to figure out how they decide what for months now

I’m not the OP but WDW lifted masks before the new community levels were released by CDC.