Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Lilofan]

And that's why public health orders are subject to law enforcement.

If a town or city is under quarantine including law enforcement it would be challenging for them to do their job.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

The reality is even with a “vaccine” for the ”non dangerous“ flu, 500,000 people per year die from it.

Sure, because some people choose not to get the vaccine because of fear-mongering from anti-vaxxers or they think that since they're in the low-risk demographic that they don't need to and then don't realize that they're spreading it until it's too late. Also, you're comparing the spread of a virus that has been around for hundreds of years to the spread of a virus that we've only known about for a couple months and hasn't had a chance to spread yet. The flu season starts around October here in the US, but that doesn't mean that we instantly have hundreds of thousands of cases of the flu that month. It takes a few months for it to become widespread. How long has it been since the first case of COVID-19 in the US? A month? Even if the argument made elsewhere in this thread that the "true" mortality rate is 0.7% ends up being accurate, that's still 7X higher than the flu.

I'm not sure where you got the 500,000 deaths per year from. That's not the number of deaths in the US. The CDC has the number of flue deaths in the US estimated at 20,000 - 52,000 for the 2019-2020 flu season through the end of February. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Even over the past 10 years, they don't come anywhere close to 500,000 deaths. "CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010." In 5 of the past 10 years, they don't even estimate the number of hospitalizations from the flu as reaching 500,000. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

[Piebald]

If they are going to be quarantined anyway, what's the difference how long it takes to test? It isn't like cancer where early detection makes a difference. If they get symptoms they'll be treated. The reason for testing in the general population is so that people who are positive will be isolated.

Until a specific treatment is available, it doesn't really matter if you are positive from a treatment perspective. Respiratory distress from the flu is treated the same as it is for COVID-19.

There isn't apprehension to test. There was a failure on the part of the CDC to have tests available in anywhere near the required quantity.

But they're saying they dont have sufficient tests ready to test them. That should be worrisome.

 

[Santa Raccoon 77]

Where are you getting this number that 500,000 people have already died from Corona?

Spoiler: Think it is down to after effects of Corona.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Where are you getting this number that 500,000 people have already died from Corona?

Would you like to highlight where I said that?

 

[Crunchie9]

This would mean that as it gets sunnier and warmer the coronavirus will go away as we get Vitamin D from sunlight.

Its an immune response to fighting off infection. Its really interesting if you like evidence-based reasoning.

also, it survives several hours on surfaces reaching 37 degrees C, and can survive up to 5 days on human waste (#1 and #2)

This guy is awesome.
Here is his video about that ()

 

[SorcererMC]

If a town or city is under quarantine including law enforcement it would be challenging for them to do their job.

Enforcing quarantine is part of their job.

 

[YankeeMouse]

Easy for me, I have been not touching my face for nigh on 20 years. Hands carry bacteria, bacteria causes breakouts. So, no face touching for Dan.

Same! It was my old AOL name. I signed up here long long ago.

Impressive. Now that I've been trying not to touch my face, I'm aware of how often I want to do it!

 

[John park hopper]

Considering it is a new virus developing a reliable test takes time to validate - once that is completed companies have to ramp upend produce the test, again takes time. IMO they have been doing a pretty good job. I believe the first tests developed by the Chinese had a 30% false negative rate. Not a great test

 

[xdan0920]

Impressive. Now that I've been trying not to touch my face, I'm aware of how often I want to do it!

I see all you face touchers out there, I never noticed before really, but now that everyone is patient zero in my mind, I notice how prevalent it is. Coughing too, everyone is just coughing all over the place. I was in Wegmans on Sunday, good god, the coughing.

 

[monothingie]

Just an update from the hotel booking end of things. I have a trip planned for Memorial Day Weekend and it seems like a either a lot of inventory was moved into the promotion and AP discount buckets and/or inventory has freed up due to cancellations.

I’m not talking about a little bit of additional inventory, but hard to find room types and hotels. Example Contemporary had no promo availability up until two weeks ago, now you have from garden view to club. Same with Boardwalk,Yacht, Beach.

Again I can’t tell you if this is just rearranging inventory or availability based on cancellations.

 

[Crunchie9]

Just an update from the hotel booking end of things. I have a trip planned for Memorial Day Weekend and it seems like a either a lot of inventory was moved into the promotion and AP discount buckets and/or inventory has freed up due to cancellations.

I’m not talking about a little bit of additional inventory, but hard to find room types and hotels. Example Contemporary had no promo availability up until two weeks ago, now you have from garden view to club. Same with Boardwalk,Yacht, Beach.

Again I can’t tell you if this is just rearranging inventory or availability based on cancellations.

So sales are coming?

 

[Crunchie9]

Coronavirus: China says disease 'curbed' in Wuhan and Hubei

President Xi Jinping says the spread of the disease had been "basically curbed" in Hubei province.

www.bbc.com

0 new cases outside of Wuhan over the last 4 days. Amazing.

 

[LSLS]

If you are lacking Vit D, and start taking the recommended doses, you can see a reduction of up 70% of viruses, bacteria, and other chest respiratory infections. Wow.

If you are at the recommended levels, you have a 19% better chance of avoiding sickness

Wait, do you mean taking the recommended dose is 70% vs. 51% if you are under that recommendation? The studies I have read (just a few so far) do state that Vitamin D supplementation does help (mainly in kids under 16) with respiratory infections, though it is pretty widely accepted to help with infections. Having the correct dose of Vitamin D is a good thing at all times, but we don't really have any evidence yet of it being a major help against this.

This would mean that as it gets sunnier and warmer the coronavirus will go away as we get Vitamin D from sunlight.

Not completely:

The short answer is that while we may expect modest declines in the contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 in warmer, wetter weather and perhaps with the closing of schools in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, it is not reasonable to expect these declines alone to slow transmission enough to make a big dent.

Marc Lipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

 

[The_Jobu]

So sales are coming?

There's been a Spring/Summer promotion on for a few months now. Probably just make more rooms available.

 

[monothingie]

So sales are coming?

No additional sales beyond what is currently offered, but more availability of those discounted rooms.

Disney only allocates a fraction of total inventory to discount offers.

 

[Lilofan]

Not related, but when NYC lost power for several days in the hot humid summer of 1977, and many residents were stuck at home, nine months later there were a lot of babies born.

 

[John park hopper]

Wait, do you mean taking the recommended dose is 70% vs. 51% if you are under that recommendation? The studies I have read (just a few so far) do state that Vitamin D supplementation does help (mainly in kids under 16) with respiratory infections, though it is pretty widely accepted to help with infections. Having the correct dose of Vitamin D is a good thing at all times, but we don't really have any evidence yet of it being a major help against this.




Not completely:


Marc Lipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Vitamin D is a fat soluble vitamin you can take too much unlike vitamin C which is water soluble and any excess you take is excreted in your urine

 

[Crunchie9]

No additional sales beyond what is currently offered, but more availability of those discounted rooms.

Disney only allocates a fraction of total inventory to discount offers.

I want to go in mid Dec where they have had free dining the last several years anyways.

 

[Crunchie9]

Wait, do you mean taking the recommended dose is 70% vs. 51% if you are under that recommendation? The studies I have read (just a few so far) do state that Vitamin D supplementation does help (mainly in kids under 16) with respiratory infections, though it is pretty widely accepted to help with infections. Having the correct dose of Vitamin D is a good thing at all times, but we don't really have any evidence yet of it being a major help against this.

Since this is new, we dont know if it has a net effect on the virus, but historically speaking it helps, so why not right?

I just oddly enough trust Dr John Campbell more then the talking heads on tv, like the WHO who says a pandemic is only pandemic if they cannot control the virus....