Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

With what money? You think people are just going to rush back out and spend money when their jobs aren't secure? You're talking about impact that is going to be felt for YEARS. Companies are never going to recover this money. I'm hearing stories of people with small businesses that even with the loans, they're done for because they'll never be able to rebound from this. Those jobs are not coming back. People are not rushing out to theme parks, restaurants, movie theaters, etc. And the ripple effect on vendors, on industries, is unforeseen right now. This is not WW2. This is not the Great Depression. This is not 9/11 or 2008. This has the makings of the worse economical impact this country has ever seen. Even if unemployment goes down, it will be key to keep an eye on wages, because you're going to see companies start driving down wages. Expenses? Those will go higher. What do you think happens then?

There is no guarantee this will be the worst economic depression the country has ever seen. It’s fine if you want to believe that, but the picture you are paining is far from certain to be true. The reality is a large portion of the economy is not currently at zero. The 1/3 of jobs at risk right now are all based on nobody being allowed out of their homes. It won’t happen overnight but people will go out to dinner and bars again, people will go on vacations, people will shop in malls. A large portion of the jobs will come back. Some restaurants and bars and stores will close permanently and new ones will spring up over time to replace them. Travel and tourism will be slower to recover for obvious reasons but people will venture out locally at first when given the all clear. It’s going to take time for the full economy to recover. IMHO years not decades.

As far as wages that may be addressed at least partially with the minimum wage. A large portion of the jobs at risk are low earning jobs so you can’t cut below minimum wage. For higher earners there will be a pull back. We are likely to see a period of a year or 2 with little or no wage growth. Common with any recession. I’m not trying to paint a rosy picture where everything comes back in a few months, but we will get past this.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

There is no guarantee this will be the worst economic depression the country has ever seen. It’s fine if you want to believe that, but the picture you are paining is far from certain to be true. The reality is a large portion of the economy is not currently at zero. The 1/3 of jobs at risk right now are all based on nobody being allowed out of their homes. It won’t happen overnight but people will go out to dinner and bars again, people will go on vacations, people will shop in malls. A large portion of the jobs will come back. Some restaurants and bars and stores will close permanently and new ones will spring up over time to replace them. Travel and tourism will be slower to recover for obvious reasons but people will venture out locally at first when given the all clear. It’s going to take time for the full economy to recover. IMHO years not decades.

As far as wages that may be addressed at least partially with the minimum wage. A large portion of the jobs at risk are low earning jobs so you can’t cut below minimum wage. For higher earners there will be a pull back. We are likely to see a period of a year or 2 with little or no wage growth. Common with any recession. I’m not trying to paint a rosy picture where everything comes back in a few months, but we will get past this.

If the numbers are right, we're at 10.2% unemployment after two weeks. We'll see where the number gets to. That would be the worse in 40 years, even worse than 08/09. The picture I'm painting is based off forecasts and estimates, very similar to the modeling we're seeing for COVID-19. I think both are fair game right now to bring up.

I might be a bit pessimistic and I think you're a bit optimistic. I'd much rather the optimistic side. It will probably land in the middle.

 

[thecouch]

No thanks.

Sincerely.

Taxpayer

I love usa.
Mention milatary and everything starts thanking service men and couldn't care less there taxes are paying more then the next 10 countries combined.

Mention minium wage, unemployment and free health care or wage subsidies and people will say not with my tax dollars and they should work harder

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[GoofGoof]

If the numbers are right, we're at 10.2% unemployment after two weeks. We'll see where the number gets to. That would be the worse in 40 years, even worse than 08/09. The picture I'm painting is based off forecasts and estimates, very similar to the modeling we're seeing for COVID-19. I think both are fair game right now to bring up.

I might be a bit pessimistic and I think you're a bit optimistic. I'd much rather the optimistic side. It will probably land in the middle.

I admit, I am being optimistic. I don’t disagree this is an unprecedented situation. In 08/09 the unemployment claims over an 18 month period hit 9M and we hit that in 2 weeks. My hope is that the sudden nature of the drop in employment will also lead to a faster recovery. The job losses have the potential of being less permanent. This is all assuming that the government continues to support people and businesses with stimulus and the lockdowns end in May or June and things start to open up. If we are still sitting here on lockdown in September then it’s a different story.

Probably getting too far into politics, but the bigger issue long term is going to be the ballooned national debt. Once things stabilize we are going to need a combination of expense cuts and higher taxes. That’s a debate for another day in another thread.

 

[thecouch]

Probably getting too far into politics, but the bigger issue long term is going to be the ballooned national debt. Once things stabilize we are going to need a combination of expense cuts and higher taxes. That’s a debate for another day in another thread.

Which one of them probably depends on your election result later this year

 

[Patcheslee]

Which county? I live in Hamilton and work in Tippecanoe.

I'm in Jackson, Jennings to the east of us is on the same level. Both sheriff's have warned if ppl continue to be out we will go to level 3 emergency travel only.

 

[Jwink]

Update:

husband was informed the union is still discussing things and are in negotiations? (Not sure what you can negotiate in furlough talks? ) and that at no time were lay offs discussed- but no official announcements yet

 

[John park hopper]

It is time the USA cuts foreign aid, gets out of foreign wars, gets out of protecting South Korea, gets out of Japan, pull all out troops out of Europe. We can't afford it ---more than ever get our own house in order

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

We were talking about the federal government enhanced unemployment as part of the $2T stimulus.

So if it went your way and no more money was given out, what would you do with the unemployed that will eventually become homeless, not able to feed their families, etc.?

 

[GoofGoof]

Update:

husband was informed the union is still discussing things and are in negotiations? (Not sure what you can negotiate in furlough talks? ) and that at no time were lay offs discussed- but no official announcements yet

Good news. They may be negotiating how the jobs come back when the furlough ends. If everyone doesn’t come back at once what percent are union vs non-union and the pecking order for who comes back first and how many hours they get.

 

[Lilofan]

Go back to the old way works the best. The Florida process to apply online for the millions of Floridians who have lost their jobs recently has overwhelmed the unemployment system. Senator Linda Stewart has advised the media that the old fashioned paper forms to apply for unemployment will be made available soon at her downtown Orlando Bumby Ave location.

 

[Lilofan]

Good news. They may be negotiating how the jobs come back when the furlough ends. If everyone doesn’t come back at once what percent are union vs non-union and the pecking order for who comes back first and how many hours they get.

Read my mind. It's important to discuss when WDW reopens, when, how and who gets called back from the furlough needs to be discussed. A general union contract with a company would explain what happens furlough or layoff related.

 

[Tom P.]

They still auto-deducted my FedLoan payment two days ago from my loans taken for my M.S. degree. As I'm still working on paying interest, they stated it'd be applied toward my principal; in that, they suspended payment on interest.

So I think it depends on one's individual situation, payment program, etc. ???

You have to apply for the payment hold - forbearance? I think it was called.

No. But it's been confusing for sure. There has been some more clarity on this released today.

All federally backed student loans have had their interest rate dropped to 0% until September 30th. Additionally, all federally backed student loans are being put on an administrative forbearance automatically with no payments due through September 30th. There is nothing you have to do for either of those things; they are automatic.

It may take until April 10th for the forbearance to show on everyone's account, but it will be there. Any payments that were automatically withdrawn since March 13th will be automatically refunded.

Full details are available here:

MyFedLoan - COVID-19

 

[LittleBuford]

Corona scam alert !! My elderly relatives already have gotten a phone call by guys claiming to be from a center where the pandemic donations that my family supposedly made to. The caller wanted to ensure the donation is accurate requesting to verify personal information. I was lucky I was with my family that afternoon when the phone call came. I just took the phone and hung up.

This reminded me of an awful story I read earlier:

Coronavirus scam: Thieves raid elderly woman's Oldham home

The men told the 92-year-old her neighbour had died from coronavirus, then stole her money.

www.bbc.com

 

[orlandogal22]

No. But it's been confusing for sure. There has been some more clarity on this released today.

All federally backed student loans have had their interest rate dropped to 0% until September 30th. Additionally, all federally backed student loans are being put on an administrative forbearance automatically with no payments due through September 30th. There is nothing you have to do for either of those things; they are automatic.

It may take until April 10th for the forbearance to show on everyone's account, but it will be there. Any payments that were automatically withdrawn since March 13th will be automatically refunded.

Full details are available here:

MyFedLoan - COVID-19

THANKS for the info!

 

[Patcheslee]

Update:

husband was informed the union is still discussing things and are in negotiations? (Not sure what you can negotiate in furlough talks? ) and that at no time were lay offs discussed- but no official announcements yet

How many weeks company will pay employees, if insurance benefits will be paid, ect.
FYI I'm in a completely different union but they've had to negotiate with our company for 80 hours paid if someone has to take off due to COVID-19. They also had to negotiate changing our work schedules.

 

[Jwink]

How many weeks company will pay employees, if insurance benefits will be paid, ect.
FYI I'm in a completely different union but they've had to negotiate with our company for 80 hours paid if someone has to take off due to COVID-19. They also had to negotiate changing our work schedules.

pay employees? He's already out of work and being paid...the pay (we assume) is stopping april 18th. Do you mean in general the discussion of furloughs or that disney unions might be discussing further payment beyond the 18th?

*edit* and they already furloughed salary and hourly non union with paid health benefits so I *think* they'd do the same for union? I don't know though

 

[DCBaker]

The current update for Florida -

These next numbers are for the entire US, as counted by Johns Hopkins -

 

[Disney Analyst]

This is so upsetting. No way to know if it was due to that woman, or the risk of his job in general. BUT TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY AND STAY HOME IF YOU ARE ILL