Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Benjamin_Nicholas]

I have a conference at the Swan starting 3/11. So, like many, this is nothing to armchair quarterback. But unlike sites like Business Insider, you need to go to the source. I actually feel a bit foolish being concerned about my trip

COVID-19 and Travel

CDC travel recommendations during the COVID-19 pandemic.

www.cdc.gov

I'm starting to think alot of sites are sensationalizing this for clicks...go figure.

Yeah, Biz Insider is clickbait and always has been.

Like Forbes, it's pretty much garbage.

 

[esskay]

It's amazing that people still think they can talk themselves into believing they know a mortality rate for this thing.

Nobody releasing firm figures, its all estimations for a good reason. Go through the facts that we know:

1. The symptoms can be as mild as a sore throat, with cases of people even having no symptoms at all.
2. The mortality rate so far is based on the number of people known to have contracted the virus
3. Given theres people walking around with little to no symptoms, they probably don't even realise they have it
4. There are some countries (Russia for example) who claim they have only 1 or 2 cases, yet all countries surrounding them have thousands, so we can't accurately measure the numbers there (not saying they are lying, just seems a bit suspect).

This concludes that you cant possibly get an even remotely accurate mortality rate, as you can't even get an accurate picture of the number of cases in 1 country, let alone the entire world.

TL;DR Its all unknown, stop believing social media figures and crappy news sites cashing in on clickbait. Use common sense.

 

[A Noble Fish]

It's amazing that people still think they can talk themselves into believing they know a mortality rate for this thing.

Nobody releasing firm figures, its all estimations for a good reason. Go through the facts that we know:

1. The symptoms can be as mild as a sore throat, with cases of people even having no symptoms at all.
2. The mortality rate so far is based on the number of people known to have contracted the virus
3. Given theres people walking around with little to no symptoms, they probably don't even realise they have it
4. There are some countries (Russia for example) who claim they have only 1 or 2 cases, yet all countries surrounding them have thousands, so we can't accurately measure the numbers there (not saying they are lying, just seems a bit suspect).

This concludes that you cant possibly get an even remotely accurate mortality rate, as you can't even get an accurate picture of the number of cases in 1 country, let alone the entire world.

TL;DR Its all unknown, stop believing social media figures and crappy news sites cashing in on clickbait. Use common sense.

And the risk isn't now in the US. It's where it will be in a month, and 6 months from now based on the facts we have about its ability to spread very easily without containment. That's why China's cases have gone down.

 

[flutas]

It's amazing that people still think they can talk themselves into believing they know a mortality rate for this thing.

Nobody releasing firm figures, its all estimations for a good reason. Go through the facts that we know:

1. The symptoms can be as mild as a sore throat, with cases of people even having no symptoms at all.
2. The mortality rate so far is based on the number of people known to have contracted the virus
3. Given theres people walking around with little to no symptoms, they probably don't even realise they have it
4. There are some countries (Russia for example) who claim they have only 1 or 2 cases, yet all countries surrounding them have thousands, so we can't accurately measure the numbers there (not saying they are lying, just seems a bit suspect).

This concludes that you cant possibly get an even remotely accurate mortality rate, as you can't even get an accurate picture of the number of cases in 1 country, let alone the entire world.

You're doing nothing but providing misinformation, please stop. If you have a medical degree and a peer reviewed paper, please present it. Until then, stop. Your argument is nothing better than an antivaxer's argument on how vaccines somehow cause autism.

Your argument additionally falls flat on it's face, because if everything you said is true how do you know the mortality rate isn't 50%. I mean, maybe all these flu deaths, car crashes, cancer deaths and "natural causes" weren't actually the virus!

I would warn everyone to stop believing random people on forums over your local government, peer reviewed scientific articles and the WHO.

 

[MagicWDI]

It's amazing that people still think they can talk themselves into believing they know a mortality rate for this thing.

Nobody releasing firm figures, its all estimations for a good reason. Go through the facts that we know:

1. The symptoms can be as mild as a sore throat, with cases of people even having no symptoms at all.
2. The mortality rate so far is based on the number of people known to have contracted the virus
3. Given theres people walking around with little to no symptoms, they probably don't even realise they have it
4. There are some countries (Russia for example) who claim they have only 1 or 2 cases, yet all countries surrounding them have thousands, so we can't accurately measure the numbers there (not saying they are lying, just seems a bit suspect).

This concludes that you cant possibly get an even remotely accurate mortality rate, as you can't even get an accurate picture of the number of cases in 1 country, let alone the entire world.

TL;DR Its all unknown, stop believing social media figures and crappy news sites cashing in on clickbait. Use common sense.

No offense to you, but you've gotta understand I'm willing to take the word of health experts over yours, and there seems to be an agreement over the thousands of them compared to your argument.

I'm pretty sure they are well aware in the variables. The same variables are probably present in calculating the numbers for the flu, cold, and other diseases, such as HIV, etc. This is all they do and have a combined thousands of years of experience, probably more. When they release numbers, I look at those numbers. If it comes with a side warning, I take that as well. If they are worried, sure as hell I would be too. If they are at ease, I probably will be with them.

 

[esskay]

You're doing nothing but providing misinformation, please stop. If you have a medical degree and a peer reviewed paper, please present it. Until then, stop. Your argument is nothing better than an antivaxer's argument on how vaccines somehow cause autism.

Your argument additionally falls flat on it's face, because if everything you said is true how do you know the mortality rate isn't 50%. I mean, maybe all these flu deaths, car crashes, cancer deaths and "natural causes" weren't actually the virus!

I would warn everyone to stop believing random people on forums over your local government, peer reviewed scientific articles and the WHO.

I can assure you I'm not trying to provide misinformation. And yes, this absolutely is a forum so take everything I, you, and everyone else says with a pinch of salt.

I've not at any point said experts are wrong - I said stop listening to social media and crappy clickbait.

The point I was trying to get at (But obviously failed to do so apologies) was that all figures are estimates, there isnt a firm "The mortality rate is X" or "Your chance of infection is Y" because the virus isn't fully understood, and lots of cases arent even known about.

This probably does a waaay better job of explaining my point: https://www.livescience.com/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-covid-19.html

 

[WDW862]

I never knew that WDWMagic had so many epidemiologist

 

[Timmay]

The same variables are probably present in calculating the numbers for the flu, cold, and other diseases, such as HIV, etc

Those variables aren’t present. Please do some research. There have been literally dozens upon dozens of years worth of study to determine a firm fatality rate of those other diseases. As I stated earlier, H1N1 was thought to initially have a fatality rate of 10%. After getting all the correct information, after years of study, it was determined the true fatality rate was 1%.

 

[Piebald]

The paramedics might be glad there will be less drug overdoses due to the cancellation of the festival.

Also to those who think cancelling Ultra was some genius move in public safety and not because the NIMBYs and city hate them, Okeechobee Fest which probably brings in only about 10% less of the attendees as Ultra is going on right now.

 

[DisneyJayL]

I’m beginning to fear this is worse than they are saying.

 

[Yodascousin]

Flying from the uk in 6 weeks just hoping that the parks don’t close would we get advance notice of any closures?
also WHO have said South Korea’s cases are now declining could it be the virus is now starting to peak?

 

[esskay]

Flying from the uk in 6 weeks just hoping that the parks don’t close would we get advance notice of any closures?
also WHO have said South Korea’s cases are now declining could it be the virus is now starting to peak?

Yep I'll be there around the same time, also flying from the UK.

Honest answer - nobody knows, it's all conjecture right now. Plan as if you are going until you hear otherwise.

 

[Touchdown]

Flying from the uk in 6 weeks just hoping that the parks don’t close would we get advance notice of any closures?
also WHO have said South Korea’s cases are now declining could it be the virus is now starting to peak?

Take a look at the Covid map of the world. Look at where all the major outbreaks are. There is one continent where the numbers are much smaller then they should be: Africa. China has been investing a lot of money in that continent and thus there is a lot of travel back and forth to there. For some reason there is not a major outbreak there; this could be due to many things, something is providing Africans with more immunity, cases aren’t being reported because of the poor health care there (could be true too,) or it could be because it’s summer there.

I know people seem to want to play this down but we may get lucky and this virus may be affected by seasons. If that is true then we may luck out and get a few months more to find treatment/work on a vaccine. The former could be ready to go come fall when it would come back.

 

[DisneyCane]

I’m beginning to fear this is worse than they are saying.

Why? Look at the data from South Korea. They have done the most testing so they will have the most accurate count of total cases including very mild or asymptomatic. Less than 0.8% of the active cases in South Korea are considered serious or critical. This is comparable to the percentage of flu cases that require hospitalization.

Analysis of the mortality rate shows that with the exception of the elderly or people with other existing health issues the mortality rate is extremely low.

I'm a crazy germaphobe in general. Even with these OCD issues, I do not have any additional concern over this virus.

This whole panic started because in the beginning, the patients in China that were presenting with this new (novel) coronavirus were mostly people with severe cases which led to a high initial mortality rate. It appeared that it could be as deadly as SARS or MERS. With more data it is clear that it is much closer to the flu with respect to serious illnesses and mortality rate.

Calm down, wash your hands properly and often, don't touch your face unless you have washed your hands and try to avoid sick people as much as possible.

 

[networkpro]

If you're not forced into close proximity with others, you have a smaller opportunity for infection. Naturally, urban dwellers in cold climates will have higher infection rates.

 

[Piebald]

I’m beginning to fear this is worse than they are saying.

Why?

For what it's worth, not a single one of my medical professional friends or family members are concerned. If they're not making a mockery of the hysteria or posting memes then at worst they're just telling us to wash our hands and take normal obvious precautions. And I'm talking doctors and nurses including some who work at ivy league schools, not some random medical assistant who did a 1 month program at ITT Tech.

Until I see that community come to grips with this or panic, I dont really care to get overly stressed about this on top of everything else going on in the world. These are people who face this disease and others every single day.

 

[Lirael]

As someone who will/would fly in to Disney from outside the US, my worries, not in order, are:

a) USA bans people from my country (unlikely, as we have too few cases and even if it rises it won't surpass the US anytime soon, if at all) ;
b) My country bans flights to/from the USA (possible);
c) My company orders me to self quarantine for two weeks when I get back (likely, they're doing it for Japan and the US is catching up in numbers. However, this wouldn't mean I'd be without getting paid for 2 weeks, though it does harm my work);
d) The parks close but companies don't cancel flights, meaning I don't get a refund, lose money and have nothing to do in Orlando

 

[Lilofan]

Why?

For what it's worth, not a single one of my medical professional friends or family members are concerned. If they're not making a mockery of the hysteria or posting memes then at worst they're just telling us to wash our hands and take normal obvious precautions. And I'm talking doctors and nurses including some who work at ivy league schools, not some random medical assistant who did a 1 month program at ITT Tech.

Until I see that community come to grips with this or panic, I dont really care to get overly stressed about this on top of everything else going on in the world. These are people who face this disease and others every single day.

That's really sad that none of your medical professional friends don't have a concern.

 

[ABQ]

View attachment 454120

I will speak for those of us who played Assassin's Creed II. "Fresh-caught leeches, who needs bleeding?"

 

[Touchdown]

That's really sad that none of your medical professional friends don't have a concern.

I wouldn’t say no concern, but we know a little more and know what it would take to prevent getting the virus. Have you entered your bunker with two months of food supplies and plan not to leave for that amount of time? If the answer is no then you are at risk! Also after old people and people with chronic diseases do you know who is the next group most at risk? It’s healthcare workers, Joe Prepper stocking up on Purell and N95 masks is hoarding something we need at work more then him.