Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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mikejs78

Well-Known Member
This graph says it all. It’s stunning to see.

View attachment 458692
The thing I don't think this chart captures well is how many people have completely lost their jobs vs how many people have been furloughed until this lockdown is over. Not that it helps in the day to day, but of the people I know who have been affected, more have been temporarily laid off than have been completely let go. If that's the case, the number of unemployed could drop dramatically as soon as the restrictions are lifted.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
CNN is reporting today NYC has contracted with refrigeration truck companies to store overflowing NYC coronavirus deceased that when hospitals run out of space and autopsy tents are being staged outside hospitals ( Bellevue) when morgues are running at full.
CNN is reporting another sensational fact to make it seem like everyone is going to die. Even if all New York deaths so far were in NYC (they aren't) it would be 0.004% of the population. The media needs to tone it down and stop contributing to panic. They want to create images like this is equivalent to the mass graves of a concentration camp during WW2.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The thing I don't think this chart captures well is how many people have completely lost their jobs vs how many people have been furloughed until this lockdown is over. Not that it helps in the day to day, but of the people I know who have been affected, more have been temporarily laid off than have been completely let go. If that's the case, the number of unemployed could drop dramatically as soon as the restrictions are lifted.
Totally true. I actually think this will spike again next week as the new bill does give additional unemployment benefits that you have to be on unemployment to collect. It’s also sudden claims. In half the country last week every restaurant, bar, hotel or non-essential retail store closed. The chart shows the weekly claims over time. In 2009 the unemployment rate surged over 10% briefly so many more people were on unemployment then are right now but the claims were just staggered as more and more companies laid off workers over time. Death by a thousand cuts. What is happening now is unprecedented, but like you said hopefully the reversal for a large number of those jobs is historically fast as well.
 

mikejs78

Well-Known Member
I'm just gonna leave this here (these are the flu numbers we hear little about... not coronavirus)

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Big difference is this is spread out over a whole season, (Oct to April), and is mitigated by slow spread due to the vaccine, etc.

Coronavirus is rapidly spreading and no one has immunity. If left unchecked, the numbers of Coronavirus cases and deaths would easily dwarf the flu cases. Coronavirus deaths to date in the US represent about 1.5% of total cases and it's climbing (was 1.3% a few days ago).
CNN is reporting another sensational fact to make it seem like everyone is going to die. Even if all New York deaths so far were in NYC (they aren't) it would be 0.004% of the population. The media needs to tone it down and stop contributing to panic. They want to create images like this is equivalent to the mass graves of a concentration camp during WW2.
Honestly this is somewhat of an ignorant statement. Deaths could climb dramatically in the coming days as NY runs out of ventilators and ICU beds.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
CNN is reporting another sensational fact to make it seem like everyone is going to die. Even if all New York deaths so far were in NYC (they aren't) it would be 0.004% of the population. The media needs to tone it down and stop contributing to panic. They want to create images like this is equivalent to the mass graves of a concentration camp during WW2.
Lump in doctors into it that are giving their estimates and advice?
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
The point of what we are doing now is to get the cases to a more manageable level, and then we can start to follow the S Korea model of testing, testing, testing and isolating those areas affected only. It's too out of control right now to do that because of our early failures. It remains to be seen if what we have done is enough or if we need to do more like Europe. Hopefully, with a rigourous test/isolate process, we can avoid another one of these lockdowns for the next 12-18 months until a vaccine can be developed.

The early testing capacity issues are not what allowed this to spread nor is testing the reason South Korea got it under control. This virus can not be contained by testing and quarantining unless you tested the entire population simultaneously (which is not possible to do). There are too many asymptomatic cases that can spread it and those patients wouldn't have been tested if there were 25 million tests ready to go 6 weeks ago.

South Korea got it under control due to lockdowns and other screening measures. Even with everything they've done, they are still seeing close to 100 new cases a day. The US has around 7 times the population of South Korea so the same level of control would be around 700 new cases a day.

What the real goals are of the current actions are:

1) Keep the peak level below the healthcare system capacity
2) Hope that it is seasonal so that when the measures are relaxed in April or May the natural cycle will keep the transmission rate down
3) Buy time to hopefully have effective treatments for the next, inevitable cycle

This virus can not possibly be contained or eliminated with testing and quarantine methods. It spreads too easily and through too many asymptomatic patients. Even if you tested every single person, you'd have to do it simultaneously or somebody that tested negative today can be positive next week because the person they contracted it from wasn't tested yet.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
CNN is reporting another sensational fact to make it seem like everyone is going to die. Even if all New York deaths so far were in NYC (they aren't) it would be 0.004% of the population. The media needs to tone it down and stop contributing to panic. They want to create images like this is equivalent to the mass graves of a concentration camp during WW2.
CNN is obviously looking for ratings just like any TV network. However, I’m guessing the story is still based in fact. NY is a mess right now and the government needs to prepare for the worst. I tend to agree that this will not be necessary, but I don‘t get paid to make that call.

I have family in NY (Long Island) and I can tell you with certainty that the media doesn’t need to create panic, it’s already there. It’s easier to look at this from the outside and dismiss it as no big deal, but all the statistics in the world are meaningless when you are facing this directly.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Big difference is this is spread out over a whole season, (Oct to April), and is mitigated by slow spread due to the vaccine, etc.

Coronavirus is rapidly spreading and no one has immunity. If left unchecked, the numbers of Coronavirus cases and deaths would easily dwarf the flu cases. Coronavirus deaths to date in the US represent about 1.5% of total cases and it's climbing (was 1.3% a few days ago).

Honestly this is somewhat of an ignorant statement. Deaths could climb dramatically in the coming days as NY runs out of ventilators and ICU beds.

Minor (or not so minor) correction. The 1.5% death rate is of CONFIRMED cases. There could be (and likely are) around 10 times the actual cases.

My statement is not ignorant. Even if the deaths climb "dramatically" in raw number they still will be a very small percentage of the population.

Even in Italy where they did get completely overwhelmed, so far 0.012% (twelve hundredths) of their population has died from this disease.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
CNN is reporting another sensational fact to make it seem like everyone is going to die. Even if all New York deaths so far were in NYC (they aren't) it would be 0.004% of the population. The media needs to tone it down and stop contributing to panic. They want to create images like this is equivalent to the mass graves of a concentration camp during WW2.
They do not make it seem like everyone is going to die. They also don’t create images to be equal with the graves of concentration camps. Wow dude, we get it you don’t like CNN but your doing exactly what CNN is supposedly doing. Just stop. I’m not a big fan of any of the tv news stuff but your way overboard.
 

mikejs78

Well-Known Member
The early testing capacity issues are not what allowed this to spread nor is testing the reason South Korea got it under control. This virus can not be contained by testing and quarantining unless you tested the entire population simultaneously (which is not possible to do). There are too many asymptomatic cases that can spread it and those patients wouldn't have been tested if there were 25 million tests ready to go 6 weeks ago.

South Korea got it under control due to lockdowns and other screening measures. Even with everything they've done, they are still seeing close to 100 new cases a day. The US has around 7 times the population of South Korea so the same level of control would be around 700 new cases a day.

What the real goals are of the current actions are:

1) Keep the peak level below the healthcare system capacity
2) Hope that it is seasonal so that when the measures are relaxed in April or May the natural cycle will keep the transmission rate down
3) Buy time to hopefully have effective treatments for the next, inevitable cycle

This virus can not possibly be contained or eliminated with testing and quarantine methods. It spreads too easily and through too many asymptomatic patients. Even if you tested every single person, you'd have to do it simultaneously or somebody that tested negative today can be positive next week because the person they contracted it from wasn't tested yet.
So I guess I should trust your word on it rather than that of the experts at the CDC, WHO, Johns Hopkins, etc who have basically said just what I said.

S Korea indeed did lockdowns but then moved to a test and isolate regime. And the issue isn't necessarily the number of new cases per day. It's the exponential increase. S Korea is holding fairly steady in case increase, and it's small. US is seeing exponential increases in the number of new cases per day, which makes this somewhat terrifying.

Again, the strategy outlined by many experts is to lockdown until rate of infection is low, then rigourously test and quaranteen (and maybe even lock down isolated areas).

Unless of course, you're more of an expert than any of these people who specialize in the field.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member

wdw71fan

Well-Known Member
Still happening today?


sorry, got busy last night.. Walmart runs :)

There is a HR component to the extended closure (obviously). Shortly version is Universal going til the 19th was originally going to be the 9th (echoing the county).. Them going further out is giving a bit of pause for Disney because they see the 10-19 as a possible opportunity if things are looking better by then.
 
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