Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

 

[Andrew C]

This is confusing to me. I thought 2 doses wasn't doing it, and they were looking to see what 3 doses would do. Reading the article, it says they are submitting for 2 and then will be submitting more data for 3?? Why not wait until you have it all together?

"This application is for authorization of the first two 3 µg doses of a planned three-dose primary series in this age group. Data on a third dose given at least 8 weeks after completion of the second dose are expected in the coming months and will be submitted to the FDA to support a potential expansion of this requested EUA."

 

[hopemax]

Of note: Look how December's Omicron surge affected the unvaccinated v. the vaccinated. And those with boosters were 4-6 times more protected than those without boosters.

So, this goes out to all the supposed pro-vaxxers who keep posting the anti-vaxx nonsense that "but the vaccinated catch COVID/Omicron, too!!" ... They do, but what you're implying is absolutely false. There is a significant difference between being vaccinated and not. Stop trying to conflate the two with fuzzy catchphrases or with the cherry-picked data of one locale.

Unfortunately, for sincere discussion purposes, we are going to be entering the period where what the numbers *should* do will be used to justify why vaccination is unnecessary. We should be reaching the point where the immunological naive are few in number. Which means the vast majority of people should either have protection from severe illness because of their vaccination status or because of prior infection. The wide gaps in those images should not happen in the future, because even the unvaccinated should be protected. The lines should start to converge if protection is similar. If we get big gaps in whatever the next variant is… we’ve got some problems with someone’s immunity not being protective.

All those “we need the stats for of or with” people better start demanding to know if the unvaccinated are immune naive (makes sense why they were susceptible to a bad outcome), or had previous infection. And start explaining if it’s the latter, why did they have a bad outcome.

 

[JoeCamel]

Unfortunately, for sincere discussion purposes, we are going to be entering the period where what the numbers *should* do will be used to justify why vaccination is unnecessary. We should be reaching the point where the immunological naive are few in number. Which means the vast majority of people should either have protection from severe illness because of their vaccination status or because of prior infection. The wide gaps in those images should not happen in the future, because even the unvaccinated should be protected. The lines should start to converge if protection is similar. If we get big gaps in whatever the next variant is… we’ve got some problems with someone’s immunity not being protective.

All those “we need the stats for of or with” people better start demanding to know if the unvaccinated are immune naive (makes sense why they were susceptible to a bad outcome), or had previous infection. And start explaining if it’s the latter, why did they have a bad outcome.

Unfortunately it is coming to light that Omicron does not impart much immunity. You can get it over and over

"Past infections from preceding variants hardly provide any protection against omicron, studies have confirmed. A previous infection provided 85 per cent protection against a reinfection for around six months, a report from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team found. Protection against reinfection has fallen to 19 per cent against an Omicron infection, the study showed. "

Omicron reinfection: How likely is it? Experts weigh in

Several people in South Africa, the epicenter of the new wave, have been infected with the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 after recovering from the disease cause

www.downtoearth.org.in

 

[hopemax]

This is confusing to me. I thought 2 doses wasn't doing it, and they were looking to see what 3 doses would do. Reading the article, it says they are submitting for 2 and then will be submitting more data for 3?? Why not wait until you have it all together?

"This application is for authorization of the first two 3 µg doses of a planned three-dose primary series in this age group. Data on a third dose given at least 8 weeks after completion of the second dose are expected in the coming months and will be submitted to the FDA to support a potential expansion of this requested EUA."

2 doses was sufficient for the youngest kids 6mo - 2 years. So we could get them to fully vaccinated status. Also, if they have enough to presume the 2-5 year olds will need three doses, mostly a need the data to check off all the boxes, cross ts and dot I’s… we can get them finished faster if we start their first two doses sooner. They can be ready for the 3rd dose when the approval comes in for the 3rd dose and not have to wait how many months for them to reach that point by completing one and two.

 

[hopemax]

Unfortunately it is coming to light that Omicron does not impart much immunity. You can get it over and over

"Past infections from preceding variants hardly provide any protection against omicron, studies have confirmed. A previous infection provided 85 per cent protection against a reinfection for around six months, a report from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team found. Protection against reinfection has fallen to 19 per cent against an Omicron infection, the study showed. "

Omicron reinfection: How likely is it? Experts weigh in

Several people in South Africa, the epicenter of the new wave, have been infected with the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 after recovering from the disease cause

www.downtoearth.org.in

Yes, we know. My point was severity. Unvaccinated and vaccinated will both get sick in the future. But neither should end up in the hospital as frequently as when there were more immunological naive people.

 

[Touchdown]

Yes, we know. My point was severity. Unvaccinated and vaccinated will both get sick in the future. But neither should end up in the hospital as frequently as when there were more immunological naive people.

Yup, this really should be the last wave of bad hospitalizations and death, unless we have a big enough antigen drift to evade cellular immunity

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I can't get beyond the paywall, but there was some interesting details in the NPR article:



The vaccine should be a no-brainer, done-deal for kids 6 months to 2 years old, as this group has met the trial endpoints. The question mark surrounds ages 2-5. When we last heard from Pfizer, the reduced dose, two series vaccination had not demonstrated an adequate antibody response in this group. The article isn't absolutely clear, but it suggests that Pfizer might request EUA for the two-shot series with hopes that the third dose may provide the desired efficacy in the near future. I hope that isn't the case, and that Pfizer already has robust enough data, either with a higher dose of a two shot series, or with a complete three shot series.

Either way, as a father of a 3 year old and an 8 week old, I view this as good news. We're not planning a Disney trip just yet, though.

Have they studied immunity transmission from mothers to babies yet?

My (limited) understanding is that if your wife was vaccinated prior to or while pregnant your 8 week old should have immunity already from her.

 

[correcaminos]

Have they studied immunity transmission from mothers to babies yet?

My (limited) understanding is that if your wife was vaccinated prior to or while pregnant your 8 week old should have immunity already from her.

I do question how long. Friend whose baby caught covid 2x was vaccinated while pregnant. Baby was a few months old when they first caught it. Then again about 4-5 months later.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I do question how long. Friend whose baby caught covid 2x was vaccinated while pregnant. Baby was a few months old when they first caught it. Then again about 4-5 months later.

Hopefully whatever immunity was transferred kept the cases mild, that’s a tough way to start life for such a little one.

 

[correcaminos]

Hopefully whatever immunity was transferred kept the cases mild, that’s a tough way to start life for such a little one.

Yeah I will say it was mild. 2nd time was more mild than the first. The first was more like a lousy baby cold. The 2nd was nowhere near that level.

I am the last to discount vaccines, but I do wonder how long and good mom to baby is. Mom never did test positive either time though.

In fact I am glad for whatever the vaccine does! A friend tested positive. Felt kind of off, tested particularly because of known exposure. Was shoveling snow 3 days later. Totally gives the vaccine credit for it being uber mild. No one else (vaccinated) was sick, though some had been sick way back in 2020.

 

[mellyf]

This is not something that is currently an issue in my school district. They actually have the exact opposite strategy in place. Also for the company I work for, we have the opposite culture of what you’re suggesting. Same for the company my wife works for. When I was a manager at hotels in my early days, no pressure. And we sent people home who came to work ill if they ever did try to show up like that. I guess I feel bad for others who have to put up with that type of pressure.

That's wonderful that your district has enough subs to cover teachers who are out sick. Many districts are not in the same situation. My district is certainly not pressuring us to come to school sick, and we have not had to take a two-week adaptive pause, as numerous districts around us have had to do because of lack of staff. However, at one point after winter break, it was close. When there is not enough staff, unfortunately some of the special area teachers like ESL teachers, reading teachers, or even special education teachers have to be pulled to cover classrooms, and then students are not getting services they should be getting. We also have not had to combine classes or anything like that, like other districts have had to do. When that happens, school truly becomes a baby-sitting service. because at that point, there is very little instruction happening.

 

[Heppenheimer]

No guarantee but an argument of probability where many who have been vaxxed and boosted have come out on the short side of probability. So no need to use this individual as an absolute example of not getting vaxxed.

You really don't understand numbers, do you?

 

[mmascari]

We should be reaching the point where the immunological naive are few in number.

I feel like it’s still a large enough number that haven’t been infected previously and haven’t been vaccinated. Certainly large enough if you only count boosted.

Which means the vast majority of people should either have protection from severe illness because of their vaccination status or because of prior infection. The wide gaps in those images should not happen in the future, because even the unvaccinated should be protected. The lines should start to converge if protection is similar.

I’m not sure where, but I though I heard prior infection was about the same as the primary vaccine dose. That adding a booster was clearly better for both.

At some point I expect them to change from fully vaccinated vs booster to primary dose vs fully vaccinated where fully means you have the current booster too. The language is squishy right now, but leaning that way.

So the top and middle lines may converge as we eventually run out of people who were never infected and never vaccinated. The bottom line should stay lower though.

Primary, initial, two doses. Whatever they call the part without the current booster. J&J being 1 messes up just calling it 2.

 

[Heppenheimer]

This is confusing to me. I thought 2 doses wasn't doing it, and they were looking to see what 3 doses would do. Reading the article, it says they are submitting for 2 and then will be submitting more data for 3?? Why not wait until you have it all together?

"This application is for authorization of the first two 3 µg doses of a planned three-dose primary series in this age group. Data on a third dose given at least 8 weeks after completion of the second dose are expected in the coming months and will be submitted to the FDA to support a potential expansion of this requested EUA."

The data seems to be solid for 6 months to 2 years, but I'm also confused why they're jumping the gun to approve for 2-5. If they don't get the desired results with the third shot, they'll need to start over again with a higher initial dose. The optics of needing to retract an EUA would not look good. The antivaxxers would swarm like a pack of hyenas.

 

[correcaminos]

That's wonderful that your district has enough subs to cover teachers who are out sick. Many districts are not in the same situation. My district is certainly not pressuring us to come to school sick, and we have not had to take a two-week adaptive pause, as numerous districts around us have had to do because of lack of staff. However, at one point after winter break, it was close. When there is not enough staff, unfortunately some of the special area teachers like ESL teachers, reading teachers, or even special education teachers have to be pulled to cover classrooms, and then students are not getting services they should be getting. We also have not had to combine classes or anything like that, like other districts have had to do. When that happens, school truly becomes a baby-sitting service. because at that point, there is very little instruction happening.

We've been lucky here too. It hasn't been since last school year that we had to have "babysitters" or combined classrooms. We were warned many times that transportation or school could be canceled. So far, we've been lucky with all of that. Now I don't know if it is pure dumb luck or what, but I just realized today was the first school day since sometime in December that we didn't get a notice on cases in the school. We only get daily reports when there are cases.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Have they studied immunity transmission from mothers to babies yet?

My (limited) understanding is that if your wife was vaccinated prior to or while pregnant your 8 week old should have immunity already from her.

I'm aware of at least two studies that demonstrated a very high degree of maternal antibody transfer for both vaccines (which is exactly what you'd expect), but I haven't seen much on efficacy or duration. Based on other vaccines, I'd guess 3-6 months. No idea on efficacy, but it would be really hard to get a good, robust study that could separate the effect of maternal antibodies from the general protection that vaccinated parents (and siblings) can provide.

Breast milk of vaccinated mothers also has shown to provide antibodies, but I have my doubts if this actually induces much protection against COVID.

 

[Andrew C]

That's wonderful that your district has enough subs to cover teachers who are out sick.

Subs haven’t been a significant concern due to high teacher attendance in general.

 

[Andrew C]

Also, if they have enough to presume the 2-5 year olds will need three doses

My question is, do they? They haven’t completed the full study it seems. Will 3 work?

 

[Jrb1979]

Subs haven’t been a significant concern due to high teacher attendance in general.

Surprised by that. My guess is either teachers in your area have been lucky to avoid Covid or they are cutting their self isolation.