Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Heppenheimer]

I’ve been reading a lot about the immune system in regards to how long immunity lasts and it’s very complex also. Active antibodies (the waning ones that worry us) prevent illness by overpowering it. It’s like a battle, if they outnumber the Virus they win, if the Virus outnumber them they lose and we get sick.

I’ve read reports that hypothesize that repeated exposure can keep levels elevated but that hasn’t been proven. I’ve also read about a thing called cell exhaustion that prevents us from making them indefinitely even if we’re constantly exposed.

The side that will ultimately offer long term protection are memory T-cells and memory B-cells, these are cells that survived the battle and change from active cells that fight the virus to dormant cells that remember how to fight the virus. They generally last until we die. Because they are dormant they don’t fight off new virus as they enter the body, they just remember how to fight them, so they don’t prevent you from getting sick, they just allow your immune system to quickly ramp up the specific cells needed to fight the virus after your sick.

The focus is currently on vaccines and boosters to maintain high active antibodies because that’s what prevents illness (because the virus is everywhere) but once the pandemic is controlled and we aren’t being exposed constantly we won’t need to maintain high active cell counts and can rely on our memory cells for the occasional exposure to it. (Or a yearly shot like the flu shot that increases active cells for a specific amount of time when we expect a lot of exposure to a virus again).

Just a waiting game now. We need to maintain active cells until the virus dies down, then we won’t need to worry about how many shots we’ll need or how frequent, it’ll likely be a yearly booster at most.

Sort of, but not quite. The memory T and B cells that remain are sort of like a pool of reservists that were never called up. Once the cell matures and actually starts fighting the specific antigen for which it was selected, it has a limited life span.

That pool of reservists that remains is what goes dormant. But even this pool diminishes slowly over time (for those who took chemistry, it declines predictably via 1st order kinetics). It never goes to completely zero, but it might diminish far enough that the remaining numbers are inadequate to respond to an infection. This is why we receive boosters for most vaccinations.

It's not really a matter of "memory", these are single cells that have no nervous system. However, a variable portion of their genetic code just so happens to produce the correct antibody that is needed to fight a specific infection. This is the reason that their stem cell "ancestor" was selected and allowed to form a clone army of itself. When that same infection arrives again, a portion of these memory cells get "called up to active duty", where they then differentiate into their mature forms.

As a side-bar, I've been reading about why certain vaccines and infections seem to stimulate much longer protection than others, apart from the issue of their targets mutating. It's complicated, but according to the most likely theory, it depends on the number leukocyte of stem cells stimulated by the initial infection and/or vaccination. Even though the cells are selected through random chance, certain configurations in the target (the infection or vaccine) are more likely to generate a more robust response. For whatever reason, the specific antigens on the measles virus (or vaccine) just happen to stimulate a much larger number of matching stem cells than conditions like pertussis or COVID. Also, children have a much larger population of immune stem cells than adults. This is part of the reason why it makes sense to start most vaccine series in children. It also suggests that when we finally have COVID vaccines for young children, barring further antigenic drift of the virus through mutation, they may need boosters less frequently than adults.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Sort of, but not quite. The memory T and B cells that remain are sort of like a pool of reservists that were never called up. Once the cell matures and actually starts fighting the specific antigen for which it was selected, it has a limited life span.

That pool of reservists that remains is what goes dormant. But even this pool diminishes slowly over time (for those who took chemistry, it declines predictably via 1st order kinetics). It never goes to completely zero, but it might diminish far enough that the remaining numbers are inadequate to respond to an infection. This is why we receive boosters for most vaccinations.

It's not really a matter of "memory", these are single cells that have no nervous system. However, a variable portion of their genetic code just so happens to produce the correct antibody that is needed to fight a specific infection. This is the reason that their stem cell "ancestor" was selected and allowed to form a clone army of itself. When that same infection arrives again, a portion of these memory cells get "called up to active duty", where they then differentiate into their mature forms.

As a side-bar, I've been reading about why certain vaccines and infections seem to stimulate much longer protection than others, apart from the issue of their targets mutating. It's complicated, but according to the most likely theory, it depends on the number leukocyte of stem cells stimulated by the initial infection and/or vaccination. Even though the cells are selected through random chance, certain configurations in the target (the infection or vaccine) are more likely to generate a more robust response. For whatever reason, the specific antigens on the measles virus (or vaccine) just happen to stimulate a much larger number of matching stem cells than conditions like pertussis or COVID. Also, children have a much larger population of immune stem cells than adults. This is part of the reason why it makes sense to start most vaccine series in children. It also suggests that when we finally have COVID vaccines for young children, barring further antigenic drift of the virus through mutation, they may need boosters less frequently than adults.

Antibodies and cells are something I never thought I’d know so much about (which is still an elementary understanding) but they sure are fascinating.

I became EMT certified in college and those courses fascinated me just as much, the human body is mind boggling.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Antibodies and cells are something I never thought I’d know so much about (which is still an elementary understanding) but they sure are fascinating.

I became EMT certified in college and those courses fascinated me just as much, the human body is mind boggling.

The two most complicated systems of the human body- the immune and nervous systems, by far.

 

[LittleBuford]

An interesting development in the UK. I wonder whether this line of thinking is more general among the scientific community.

End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce

Dr Clive Dix says we should treat the virus like flu

www.theguardian.com

 

[DisneyCane]

An interesting development in the UK. I wonder whether this line of thinking is more general among the scientific community.

End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce

Dr Clive Dix says we should treat the virus like flu

www.theguardian.com

From the article:

“The UK Health Security Agency found that the impact of a third dose against transmission of Covid wanes after 10 weeks"

 

[LittleBuford]

From the article:

“The UK Health Security Agency found that the impact of a third dose against transmission of Covid wanes after 10 weeks"

That was reported back at the end of December. At this point, stopping transmission altogether isn't a realistic goal anyway. Slowing it down and avoiding severe illness are more important and achievable aims under the present circumstances, which is why the booster remains important.

 

[Jrb1979]

An interesting development in the UK. I wonder whether this line of thinking is more general among the scientific community.

End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce

Dr Clive Dix says we should treat the virus like flu

www.theguardian.com

I can't trust the Guardian. They are just another tabloid paper that pushes the anti- vaxxers

 

[jlhwdw]

Anyone else still think the theme parks have absolutely no business being open right now? Anyone? Bueller?

 

[LittleBuford]

I can't trust the Guardian. They are just another tabloid paper that pushes the anti- vaxxers

Definitely not a tabloid. It's a left-leaning broadsheet and in no way anti-vax; on the contrary, the editorial tone of the newspaper is very pro-mitigation. I tried to find another source, because I prefer to post links to politically more neutral outlets to avoid people dismissing the story out of hand (just as you've done), but it isn't being widely reported yet. In any case, you can just skip the framing paragraphs and focus on Dix's own words, which are quoted.

 

[LittleBuford]

Anyone else still think the theme parks have absolutely no business being open right now? Anyone? Bueller?

I tend to agree, though I do understand the argument for keeping them open given all the staff layoffs that would inevitably result from keeping them closed.

 

[Married5Times]

went to WDW last night for the first time in 30 months. the studios was quite busy. so no I dont agree with you. time to live again. pretty much everyone will get this bug since its the most comminciable thing weve seen in a long time. so whats it matter any more???

Anyone else still think the theme parks have absolutely no business being open right now?

 

[AEfx]

Anyone else still think the theme parks have absolutely no business being open right now? Anyone? Bueller?

I think about it somewhat the other way around - not so much that they should not be open, just the amazement that so many people make the choice to go. WDW is a petri dish on the best days, but during a pandemic? It literally would be the last place on Earth I would want to put myself, let alone pay thousands of dollars for the privilege.

But that's me, personally because I have people in my life who are getting chemo right now, that I would never, ever forgive myself if I did something frivolous like that (or go to the movies etc.) and they caught covid from me, not to mention I have medical issues myself that would be exasperated if I caught it. Yet as we've seen, others - even in this very thread - say "yeah, we went, we all came home with COVID - no biggie, was just a cold, it was worth it". Just different circumstances, I guess.

I sincerely do hope all those people end up fine - though I do think a lot of folks have forgotten how little we still know about "long covid" - there were studies months back that showed the reason people lose things like taste/etc. is because COVID basically eats grey brain matter. Again, hopefully, those that have mild cases or are asymptomatic won't have those issues - but we just don't know what it does to you long term yet. Personally, just not a risk I'd even entertain given my circumstances.

 

[JoeCamel]

I can't trust the Guardian. They are just another tabloid paper that pushes the anti- vaxxers

I've got a hard time believing this when he tosses asymptomatic spread and only wants people to stay home when they feel bad.....

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Anyone else still think the theme parks have absolutely no business being open right now? Anyone? Bueller?

When should they be open?

And if theme parks shouldn’t be open... why should any indoor dining, movie theaters, concert venues etc?

And if they aren’t open... what are those people supposed to do for work? All sign up for ubereats?

People now have the choice to get the vaccine, get the booster, or not. People have the choice to go back out into the world or not. Let the world be open for business and let people make choices.

 

[LittleBuford]

I've got a hard time believing this when he tosses asymptomatic spread and only wants people to stay home when they feel bad.....

To be clear, The Guardian is reporting the opinions of the former chairman of the UK vaccine taskforce, not promoting them. Anyone who reads the paper knows that their stance is about as pro-mask, pro-vaccine, etc. as you can get. I shared the story because it is newsworthy, not because I agree with Dix's stance.

ETA: I should also point out that the story is technically published by The Observer, which is The Guardian's Sunday sister paper.

 

[hopemax]

An interesting development in the UK. I wonder whether this line of thinking is more general among the scientific community.

End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce

Dr Clive Dix says we should treat the virus like flu

www.theguardian.com

Well, from what I've seen most experts are on board with the idea of finding out who benefits and that different population cohorts may have different needs. But the caution comes from ideas that seem to express more "I'm tired of doing this" than public health needs. As Omicron has started playing out, experts are happy that Omicron seems to result in less severe cases. However, they also seem to have a concern that whatever endemic looks like for COVID-19, it will slot in as more impactful than flu. Which is not where regular people, who are tweeting things like .1% and .15% are "almost the same" (not one is 50% greater than the other in actuality), are imagining. Which matters when it comes to the volume of people seeking medical care during an outbreak. Even if booster protection only lasts 10 weeks, if COVID becomes a regular holiday visitor, boosting in November could get a lot of people through their holiday plans with more confidence. Like the flu shot.

But prematurely declaring what we should do or not do because of COVID fatigue and not what the moment dictates... still a no go for the experts. They aren't saying "never learn to live with it." They are mostly saying "we aren't there yet."

 

[mmascari]

An interesting development in the UK. I wonder whether this line of thinking is more general among the scientific community.

End mass jabs and live with Covid, says ex-head of vaccine taskforce

Dr Clive Dix says we should treat the virus like flu

www.theguardian.com

Some quotes that I’m not sure how all fit together.

“Mass population-based vaccination in the UK should now end.”

Our way out of this pandemic is for everyone to get their booster or their first or second dose if they haven’t yet.”

NHS officials are warning that patient safety has been compromised this winter because of a crippling health and social care staff shortage that would require a million additional workers by the next decade.

“It is now very clear that the NHS and our social care system do not have sufficient capacity. That asking staff to work harder and harder to address that gap is simply not sustainable. That we need a long-term, fully funded, workforce plan to attract and retain the extra one million health and care staff the Health Foundation estimates will be needed by 2031.”

Even if you had to give everyone a shot every 3 months, assuming they keep falling off forever, I’m not sure how that would be a harder plan than treating everyone after the fact. Even if the plan is to staff up NHS to handle the capacity, a suggestion many have made here for the US too, how do you end additional vaccine push now before you have the extra capacity? Doesn’t that just make it worse in the gap until capacity comes online.

This is just looking at the logistics and cost, ignoring other questions. It’s still cheaper to vaccinate someone, even frequently, than to test them current immune capabilities or treat them if it’s not good enough.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I think about it somewhat the other way around - not so much that they should not be open, just the amazement that so many people make the choice to go. WDW is a petri dish on the best days, but during a pandemic? It literally would be the last place on Earth I would want to put myself, let alone pay thousands of dollars for the privilege.

But that's me, personally because I have people in my life who are getting chemo right now, that I would never, ever forgive myself if I did something frivolous like that (or go to the movies etc.) and they caught covid from me, not to mention I have medical issues myself that would be exasperated if I caught it. Yet as we've seen, others - even in this very thread - say "yeah, we went, we all came home with COVID - no biggie, was just a cold, it was worth it". Just different circumstances, I guess.

I sincerely do hope all those people end up fine - though I do think a lot of folks have forgotten how little we still know about "long covid" - there were studies months back that showed the reason people lose things like taste/etc. is because COVID basically eats grey brain matter. Again, hopefully, those that have mild cases or are asymptomatic won't have those issues - but we just don't know what it does to you long term yet. Personally, just not a risk I'd even entertain given my circumstances.

It would be interesting to see who’s going to the parks right now. For those (like me) who work with the public everyday Disney isn’t any more dangerous than going to work, probably much less dangerous since it’s mostly outdoors while my job is completely indoors. Obviously for those still able to self isolate it’s a much bigger risk.

We all gauge risk differently, even though I work in a high risk environment (often in concert venues or convention spaces) I still can’t bring myself to go to a Knights game despite being a mega fan. A few thousand people in a concert venue (which is probably terrifying to most) is normal for me but 18,000 indoors at a hockey game is still outside my acceptable risk threshold.

My next DL trip is in 2 weeks and I can’t wait, I feel the positive aspects to my immune system from de-stressing far out-way the negative risks of being mostly outdoors around big crowds.

 

[LittleBuford]

Some quotes that I’m not sure how all fit together.



Even if you had to give everyone a shot every 3 months, assuming they keep falling off forever, I’m not sure how that would be a harder plan than treating everyone after the fact. Even if the plan is to staff up NHS to handle the capacity, a suggestion many have made here for the US too, how do you end additional vaccine push now before you have the extra capacity? Doesn’t that just make it worse in the gap until capacity comes online.

This is just looking at the logistics and cost, ignoring other questions. It’s still cheaper to vaccinate someone, even frequently, than to test them current immune capabilities or treat them if it’s not good enough.

I can't fully wrap my head around it either, nor do I have any sense of how widespread (if at all) his viewpoint is among others in the British medical community. His approach certainly seems out of keeping with what SAGE (the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) is currently recommending.

 

[Jrb1979]

It would be interesting to see who’s going to the parks right now. For those (like me) who work with the public everyday Disney isn’t any more dangerous than going to work, probably much less dangerous since it’s mostly outdoors while my job is completely indoors. Obviously for those still able to self isolate it’s a much bigger risk.

We all gauge risk differently, even though I work in a high risk environment (often in concert venues or convention spaces) I still can’t bring myself to go to a Knights game despite being a mega fan. A few thousand people in a concert venue (which is probably terrifying to most) is normal for me but 18,000 indoors at a hockey game is still outside my acceptable risk threshold.

My next DL trip is in 2 weeks and I can’t wait, I feel the positive aspects to my immune system from de-stressing far out-ways the negative risks of being mostly outdoors around big crowds.

For me I have gone to watch my local hockey team as the capacity is low and people still follow social distancing for the most part. That goes for my local amusement park as well. People keep their space in line and away from others.

As far as US parks go I have no interest in visiting those parks. Mainly due to the lack of social distancing. It's not worth the aggravation of me having to get into it with someone when they are up against me.