Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Andrew C]

US one week average trend

 

[Bullseye1967]

Did you read the statement?

"Danny Altmann, a professor of immunology at Imperial College, emphasised there were additional complexities around B.1.1.529, as South Africa had excess vaccine stocks that it could not use due to vaccine hesitancy. Research has suggested the problem is larger among white adults, with one study from August revealing just over half were willing to receive a Covid jab compared with about 75% of black adults."

Latch onto what you want but it is false to place the blame on the west.

This math doesn't add up. If the country is only at 35% vaccination rate, yet whites just over half vaccinated and blacks at 75%? Are there a whole bunch of other races in SA that I don't know about?

 

[JoeCamel]

This math doesn't add up. If the country is only at 35% vaccination rate, yet whites just over half vaccinated and blacks at 75%? Are there a whole bunch of other races in SA that I don't know about?

The percentages are people likely to get the jab, the 35 is ones that have

 

[JoeCamel]

A little more depth about the variant

 

[Andrew C]

A little more depth about the variant

Not holding my breath by any means but I would definitely take “the most highly transmissible variant but the least deadly.”

 

[mmascari]

It is one thing to ban flights of travelers from these countries to fly to the USA or UK directly but how is it going to be enforced if these travelers from these banned countries fly to another country in Africa or Europe and go on a non stop and enter the airports of NYC, Miami , Atlanta or Boston?

Or just walk across the border with Mexico!

It's the wrong perspective to really think of this as a "ban" or imagine that it's to "stop all travel from" those places. Think of it as more of a reduction and adding friction making it harder to get here from there.

Even right in the original tweet above, it doesn't stop all travel from there to here. The virus doesn't care if you're a "U.S. citizens or lawful permanent resident" and all of them are still allowed to travel.

So, this isn't really a "ban" in the sense that if you don't have a park ticket you're not allowed in. It'll reduce the number of travelers though, as lots will not take the extra effort to get around the restriction and the pool of allowed people is smaller than the pool of all travelers.

It's not 0 travel though, nobody should read the ban announcement as think it means nobody from those areas are getting here, it's not even trying to do that.

 

[Heppenheimer]

It is one thing to ban flights of travelers from these countries to fly to the USA or UK directly but how is it going to be enforced if these travelers from these banned countries fly to another country in Africa or Europe and go on a non stop and enter the airports of NYC, Miami , Atlanta or Boston?

I believe anyone visiting the US from those countries in pre-COVID would need a visa anyway. Airlines usually won't let you on a flight if you don't have visa to your destination. I doubt the US will be issuing many visas in that region anytime soon/

 

[hopemax]

It doesn't. SA is a disaster. I say this as someone who's partner is South African, thus my inlaws are South African, and although we are all in Canada, they are still very connected to SA with family and friends.

You thought it was bad in the US. The conspiracy and anti-vax folks are RAMPANT in SA. I don't know how you will ever get that country vaccinated...

How much of that is self-grown with SA reasons, and how much is influenced by that sort of stuff happening in the US and Europe? If we had jumped on board, and shoved our anti-vaxxers in a closet, would it have gotten as much traction? Are they parroting us even if the people speaking are SA?

 

[Chip Chipperson]

It's the wrong perspective to really think of this as a "ban" or imagine that it's to "stop all travel from" those places. Think of it as more of a reduction and adding friction making it harder to get here from there.

Even right in the original tweet above, it doesn't stop all travel from there to here. The virus doesn't care if you're a "U.S. citizens or lawful permanent resident" and all of them are still allowed to travel.

So, this isn't really a "ban" in the sense that if you don't have a park ticket you're not allowed in. It'll reduce the number of travelers though, as lots will not take the extra effort to get around the restriction and the pool of allowed people is smaller than the pool of all travelers.

It's not 0 travel though, nobody should read the ban announcement as think it means nobody from those areas are getting here, it's not even trying to do that.

Honestly, it probably should until we have more information about the severity of infections and its transmissibility. Any citizens/legal residents should be allowed to return here, of course - but after a quarantine and/or negative test. But don't let anyone go there from here unless they're just returning home and won't be making a round trip. A travel restriction that allows for any more than that is just a half-measure at best.

 

[hopemax]

Not holding my breath by any means but I would definitely take “the most highly transmissible variant but the least deadly.”

You know the math on this is actually worse. It's one of those things that is counter-intuitive. Higher transmissible means more people get sick. So even though the percentage that are seriously affected is lower, there were more sick people overall so the raw total is higher.

10% (more deadly) of 1000 (less transmissible) is 100 people, 5% (less deadly) of 10,000 (more transmissible) is 500 people.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

How much of that is self-grown with SA reasons, and how much is influenced by that sort of stuff happening in the US and Europe? If we had jumped on board, and shoved our anti-vaxxers in a closet, would it have gotten as much traction? Are they parroting us even if the people speaking are SA?

I’d bet 99% is self grown, I doubt SA pays any more attention to us than we pay to SA most days.

 

[Andrew C]

You know the math on this is actually worse. It's one of those things that is counter-intuitive. Higher transmissible means more people get sick. So even though the percentage that are seriously affected is lower, there were more sick people overall so the raw total is higher.

10% (more deadly) of 1000 (less transmissible) is 100 people, 5% (less deadly) of 10,000 (more transmissible) is 500 people.

The math is all based on assumptions. As was my statement. And how people and countries respond to the real math once available is even less certain.

 

[JoeCamel]

I’d bet 99% is self grown, I doubt SA pays any more attention to us than we pay to SA most days.

This the country where flamethrowers on a luxury vehicle to repel attacks were marketed. Tough place

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

You know the math on this is actually worse. It's one of those things that is counter-intuitive. Higher transmissible means more people get sick. So even though the percentage that are seriously affected is lower, there were more sick people overall so the raw total is higher.

10% (more deadly) of 1000 (less transmissible) is 100 people, 5% (less deadly) of 10,000 (more transmissible) is 500 people.

All depends on the ratios. 10% to 5% favors more deadly, 10% to .5% favors the less deadly even if 10x more contagious. Also depends on the side affects.

 

[Disney Analyst]

How much of that is self-grown with SA reasons, and how much is influenced by that sort of stuff happening in the US and Europe? If we had jumped on board, and shoved our anti-vaxxers in a closet, would it have gotten as much traction? Are they parroting us even if the people speaking are SA?

I think it's a mix of both. The US and its rhetoric influences the world.

But SA is a complicated place, with very different populations, mindsets, education levels, and beliefs. Some of it comes down to a belief in natural medicine only, some due to heavy religion. Some due to a deep distrust of governments and corruption.

It's a complicated country.

 

[Andrew C]

I thought we already had a South African variant? Country wants them all to originate there or what.

 

[Lilofan]

I believe anyone visiting the US from those countries in pre-COVID would need a visa anyway. Airlines usually won't let you on a flight if you don't have visa to your destination. I doubt the US will be issuing many visas in that region anytime soon/

If you are a Canadian or Mexican citizen living, working, studying or vacationing in Africa and wish to travel to the USA, one does need to apply for a visa to enter our country.

 

[JoeCamel]

I thought we already had a South African variant? Country wants them all to originate there or what.

This is Botswana I thought

 

[Flugell]

I think it's a mix of both. The US and its rhetoric influences the world.

But SA is a complicated place, with very different populations, mindsets, education levels, and beliefs. Some of it comes down to a belief in natural medicine only, some due to heavy religion. Some due to a deep distrust of governments and corruption.

It's a complicated country.

Seems to be a complicated virus too!

 

[hopemax]

I thought we already had a South African variant?

South Africa is one of the countries with highest level of viral surveillance. They have detected several variants because they are one of the few that have been looking for them and reporting on it. They aren't all "originating" from South Africa; just found there.