Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[LittleBuford]

I have no information. If there were no Chinese textile workers among the earliest hospitalized patients in Italy or very few of them (you make it sound like this is a fact, do you have a source?) it is possible that many younger factory workers are carriers of the disease but few of them are victims. It is a well known theory that there could be a vast number of asymptomatic carriers.

The reason why we need better information about Italy is so that our own countries, states and provinces can avoid the mistakes that were made there. Mistakes that might include, insufficient or tardy travel bans, lack of social isolation, insufficient testing of people with mild or no symptoms, failure to publicize information on known clusters or community hotspots, and so on.

I’m just repeating myself at this point, so this will be my last post on the topic. We are already learning lessons from Italy—grim ones at that—based on the known facts and information. The theory you’re discussing doesn’t fall into the category of the known or factual. It is nothing more than speculation, and I don’t see what it offers us that would in any way shape or inform the measures being taken to fight the virus. We’re way past the point of keeping this thing out—it’s here among us already.

 

[flynnibus]

If you made $100k last year, you should have been smart enough to plan to be able to survive for a few months.

If you made under $100k last year, you may very well need some money just to take care of yourself and your family.

Obviously it will be a little unfair cause the $99 k will get a check and the $101k won’t but nothing in life is totally fair.

The basic point in this is... this shutdown does not strike based on your AGI

Your AGI at at a point in time says nothing about your actual costs vs earnings

A random round number means nothing compared to what your sustaining expenses are.

Politics that try to play 'the haves vs the have nots' in this thing is going to blow it all up. This freeze of the economy is going to hurt EVERYONE.

The very notion of 'well you make a 100k, you should have assets...' is a foolish statement. Maybe you're 25 and paying off college debt. Maybe you're a doctor paying off medical school and college still. Maybe you're a white collar guy supporting 4 kids and struggling to keep up. Maybe you live in NYC or parts of cali where housing makes 100k earners 'just getting by..'

etc

 

[RobWDW1971]

I work for the restaurant company that operates Olive Garden/Longhorn Steakhouse etc. and it's getting concerning. We closed all dining rooms across the country yesterday, they are now all take out only where allowed. I heard we will also be selling alcohol "to go" in regions that's also allowed. I'm hoping at worst case these will still be allowed to operate because with no revenue for weeks or months... that could go bad very quickly.

If the largest restaurant company in the country is sweating through this... I don't know how the smaller chains or independently ran restaurants are even going to make it through this.

WSJ today:
Coronavirus-Triggered Downturn Could Cost 5 Million U.S. Jobs
Economic output seen shrinking by as much as $1.5 trillion with recession all but certain

So soon we can start doing the math, if we save 1,000 lives vs allowing the economy to function, that would be ballpark $1.5 billion per elderly/pre-existing condition fatality over the 2.1M elderly deaths last year. If we save 10,000 vs non-shutdown, that would be 150 million per life, etc. Will be a fascinating after action review that will inform future reactions.

Will also be interesting to hear from those 5 million folks who lost their jobs if our response was indeed "worth it". And note that hospitals being overrun in the short-term would certainly be unfortunate, but that situation would not destroy the economy especially if the elderly are the ones dying in a scale similar to the 2.1 million who die annually.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

WSJ today:
Coronavirus-Triggered Downturn Could Cost 5 Million U.S. Jobs
Economic output seen shrinking by as much as $1.5 trillion with recession all but certain

So soon we can start doing the math, if we save 1,000 lives vs allowing the economy to function, that would be ballpark $1.5 billion per elderly/pre-existing condition fatality over the 2.1M elderly deaths last year. If we save 10,000 vs non-shutdown, that would be 150 million per life, etc. Will be a fascinating after action review that will inform future reactions.

Will also be interesting to hear from those 5 million folks who lost their jobs if our response was indeed "worth it". And note that hospitals being overrun in the short-term would certainly be unfortunate, but that situation would destroy the economy especially if the elderly are the ones dying in a scale similar to the 2.1 million who die annually.

Jobs report comes out next Thursday. Predictions (at least some of them) are looking to potentially 2M down in that report alone. Market hasn't found bottom yet.

 

[LittleBuford]

if we save 1,000 lives vs allowing the economy to function

Where are you getting the figure of 1,000 from?

 

[21stamps]

The basic point in this is... this shutdown does not strike based on your AGI

Your AGI at at a point in time says nothing about your actual costs vs earnings

A random round number means nothing compared to what your sustaining expenses are.

Politics that try to play 'the haves vs the have nots' in this thing is going to blow it all up. This freeze of the economy is going to hurt EVERYONE.

The very notion of 'well you make a 100k, you should have assets...' is a foolish statement. Maybe you're 25 and paying off college debt. Maybe you're a doctor paying off medical school and college still. Maybe you're a white collar guy supporting 4 kids and struggling to keep up. Maybe you live in NYC or parts of cali where housing makes 100k earners 'just getting by..'

etc

To add to this.. it may not be a question of “living off savings for a few months”. It may be that the people can not find an income-equivalent job for a year, or longer.
Even if you have a year’s worth of income in savings.. your life will change drastically, things will have to go...you will not be putting money into the economy.. which then creates a domino effect.
So many people just look at a number without realizing the larger impact of the situation.

 

[larryz]

Don't know if you've ever tried Manny's Chophouse or Cody's Roadhouse over in the Tampa/Clearwater area. I prefer them to Longhorn. Hopefully, they'll open back up.

Nope. Frankly, I think my steaks are better than most steakhouses, but I'll eat a porterhouse or tomahawk ribeye if I'm out for food.

I never made it to Bern's while I was in Tampa, and I haven't yet hit The Pine Club up here. Someday.

Meanwhile, if I'm in a mood, I'll break down a tenderloin and we'll grill up a mess of filets. But normally I'm ok with Sam's 1" ribeyes.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

If you made $100k last year, you should have been smart enough to plan to be able to survive for a few months.

Yes, but not at the lifestyle they're accustomed too.

And that would be the real "tragedy".

 

[thomas998]

Herd immunity is also a rotating concept -- if people lose immunity in 9 months (and that's a big if, since we don't know) there will always be a group of people currently immune. And we only have to worry about one cycle, since they're fast-tracking the immunization.

I predict that 2 years from now, COVID-19 will be just another strain in a multivalent annual shot.

The biggest if is that they have a vaccine for the virus in 2 years. How many billions of dollars have been pumped into finding a cure for HIV and still nothing... a cure for cancer? And you think that suddenly they will find one for this virus pretty much overnight.... I hope they do... but I seriously doubt it.

As for the length of immunity other viruses in the same family only provide the person with as little as 3 months immunity after they get over the infection... So 9 months may very well be wishful thinking.

 

[21stamps]

Yes, but not at the lifestyle they're accustomed too.

And that would be the real "tragedy".

I would end up getting my comment deleted or worst case banned from the thread, if I responded to this the way it deserves.., so, I’ll refrain.

What I will say, is this is a very dangerous view when talking about a larger economical impact on all sectors of society. They’re all connected.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

How many billions of dollars have been pumped into finding a cure for HIV and still nothing

Not curable yet. But treatable. It's no longer a death sentence. I'd think the Billions were well used.

 

[larryz]

The biggest if is that they have a vaccine for the virus in 2 years. How many billions of dollars have been pumped into finding a cure for HIV and still nothing... a cure for cancer? And you think that suddenly they will find one for this virus pretty much overnight.... I hope they do... but I seriously doubt it.

As for the length of immunity other viruses in the same family only provide the person with as little as 3 months immunity after they get over the infection... So 9 months may very well be wishful thinking.

Well, your new nickname is "Doubting Thomas."

 

[DCBaker]

 

[LittleBuford]

Amen.

Coronavirus: Shoppers told to buy responsibly

The government's message comes as supermarkets are facing a huge demand during the coronavirus outbreak.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[GoofGoof]

If you made $100k last year, you should have been smart enough to plan to be able to survive for a few months.

If you made under $100k last year, you may very well need some money just to take care of yourself and your family.

Obviously it will be a little unfair cause the $99 k will get a check and the $101k won’t but nothing in life is totally fair.

I think everyone has likely learned a little lesson from this. The economy was booming and a lot of times that makes people accept more risk. A lot of Americans should have had a little more in their rainy day fund. It’s a tough lesson to learn but as a nation we all live a little too much paycheck to paycheck. I know not everyone can afford to save money, but there are plenty of people driving around in nice new cars with nice clothing and taking expensive vacations (the mouse ain’t cheap). I can’t put a dollar threshold on it since the cost of living varies dramatically from place to place. As a general guideline we should all try to have several months worth of expenses as a minimum in savings. That won’t help people who are unemployed for months but it would get most people through this immediate crisis.

 

[DCBaker]

New Jersey now has a "stay at home" order.

 

[thomas998]

Well, your new nickname is "Doubting Thomas."

I'm just a realist. Which means while I may not be burping rainbows I don't get disappointed when something happens that anyone that bothered to be honest with themselves wouldn't have already known was going to happen. Some people enjoy being optimistic, but they also tend to get their hearts broken all the time when they don't win the lottery or become a rock star because they sang karaoke in a bar.

 

[Nunu]

In MY country:

Watching our President on tv right now, announcing mandatory nationwide curfew, starting tomorrow. From 4pm till 4am.
17 confirmed cases as of today.

Uncertain times everywhere.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

If you made $100k last year, you should have been smart enough to plan to be able to survive for a few months.

If you made under $100k last year, you may very well need some money just to take care of yourself and your family.

Obviously it will be a little unfair cause the $99 k will get a check and the $101k won’t but nothing in life is totally fair.

People are so quick to judge what others should be able to do with their money without knowing what is going on in their lives. If you live in HCOL, $100K isn't much. If you have a family of five with a wife that is a SAHM, $100K isn't much. If you're helping take care of your parents, $100K isn't much.

In all reality, the government should just issue checks out to everyone and then based on 2020 tax returns, require refunds of it if you exceed a certain income level (I'm more along the lines of if you have make more than 150K individually or 250K as a couple in 2020, you would then repay the money the government gives out). It also needs to be more money and for a longer time period.

 

[thomas998]

Not curable yet. But treatable. It's no longer a death sentence. I'd think the Billions were well used.

Were they? Imagine if we had simply done mass testing of everyone and quarantined everyone that had HIV in the last 80's... how many lives would have been saved because we had eliminated the virus? And how many do we still see cut short because the virus is still infecting people and if you don't have the money to pay for the medicine your doomed. A treatment for it is only making drug companies rich and frankly probably gives them an incentive to try and stop anyone from finding a cure or vaccine.