Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyDebRob]

They've capped the 1k payout to people who make under $99k per year. Which is going to be a huge issue. Do you realize how many people work on commission / tips who make over that. So if someone had a good year and made $105k last year on commission. And now - because they are a straight commission employee - they drop to zero. They get nothing.

My wife and I were just talking about that. We made above that last year even with my early retirement in July. She just lost her job beginning of February. So if going by last year, no checks for us. If going by now? Let’s just say our combined retirement of mine and her unemployment brings us wayyyyyyy down.

 

[larryz]

Yep.

If you looked at it in a very cold logical way you would probably find that the best solution from a lives saved standpoint would be to ignore the virus completely and hope everyone gets infected together. Yes you overrun the hospitals with maybe a push of 15% of the people needing but not being able to get medical treatment... and a large number of them would die. But since the virus doesn't provide life long immunity when you get it, and there is no guarantee that we will ever have a vaccine for it... well doing a slow role like we are doing may bring the death rate down to 1.5%.... but if the people continually face the virus year after year after year because your immunity never lasts more than 3 to 9 months... Well over time you'll actually lose more people than if you just pushed to get everyone infected so the virus was burned out and gone because after 12 years you have had as many die as you would in one group catastrophe.

But you would never see any politician pushing that theory because it would be political suicide.

You left out two things... herd immunity and vaccine. Both of those will kick in over time. Slow roll the rush to emergency rooms and more people survive in the long run.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Huh? The governor wouldn’t allow a theme park to be open if a restaurant can’t be open.

Governor said no eat in. I’m sure maybe with the places you can grab a bite and move along. I don’t know, was just reporting what I read.

 

[larryz]

In sum, Hooters. I’ve never been but it’s one of those places I should check off my list once this ordeal ends.

The food is vastly overrated.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

The food is vastly overrated.

They have food there?

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

If you made $100k last year, you should have been smart enough to plan to be able to survive for a few months.

If you made under $100k last year, you may very well need some money just to take care of yourself and your family.

Obviously it will be a little unfair cause the $99 k will get a check and the $101k won’t but nothing in life is totally fair.

 

[larryz]

China opened up Pandora box and there is probably no way to put the monster back in.

There's always Lt Ridley's way...
TRIGGER NOTICE: scenes of smoking, adult language, and references to nuclear destruction

 

[larryz]

They have food there?

So I've heard... guys talk, you hear things...

 

[disneygeek90]

Governor of Florida has said restaurants in Florida to be take out only until possibly may 7. Disney would be hard pressed to open with those restrictions. No place to eat except for whatever take out you could get. No meeting Mickey and pals or anyone else. Who here would go with all that? Better to stay shuttered until we have a good grasp on this whole thing.

I work for the restaurant company that operates Olive Garden/Longhorn Steakhouse etc. and it's getting concerning. We closed all dining rooms across the country yesterday, they are now all take out only where allowed. I heard we will also be selling alcohol "to go" in regions that's also allowed. I'm hoping at worst case these will still be allowed to operate because with no revenue for weeks or months... that could go bad very quickly.

If the largest restaurant company in the country is sweating through this... I don't know how the smaller chains or independently ran restaurants are even going to make it through this.

 

[flynnibus]

It really is a matter of how risk adverse you are... imagine you have a button that randomly zaps you dead 15 percent of the time and one that only zaps you 1.5% of the time... now would you rather have to push the 15% button one time and never again or go about pushing the 1.5% button every year until you died. You know that at some point the every year button going to be more likely to zap you than the one time 15% button unless you are already pretty old and don't expect to live that long regardless.

False equivalency.

Instead... imagine everytime you press the button... you caused 4 other people to press the same button. And also anytime someone presses the button, it adds 20 more people to the queue at the essential service place.

The problem with your zapper analogy is that it only includes death as the consequence and makes it into some individual choice.

Pandemics are not about individuals - they are a communal problem that exist because of the freedom of movement and exchange we have in our world. It's not something individuals gets to opt in or out of. Unless you chose to go live like a hermit in isolation in the wilderness. Then you get the fun of being wiped out by diseases the herd has worked out while you were gone when you interact with the herd.

 

[thomas998]

You left out two things... herd immunity and vaccine. Both of those will kick in over time. Slow roll the rush to emergency rooms and more people survive in the long run.

Herd immunity doesn't work if you people that get the disease lose the immunity. It only works if once you've had it you don;'t get it again... but when you lose the immunity in 3 or 9 months the benefits of immunity are really kind of pointless because every year you are going to be traveling down the same road again.

 

[larryz]

It’s based on your AGI. Someone who made $105K (and it depends if they’re married or not, the cutoff is $150K for married couples) is probably closer to $93K based off of standard deduction alone and probably less than that.

Tipped employees are probably not reporting everything they get.

I'm shocked -- shocked!

 

[esskay]

Well even if the US did a China style lockdown, and even if the US was able to completely eradicate the virus from the country by doing so... the US would then have to be a locked down country allowing no foreign travellers to visit the US until the rest of the world was virus free.

Er yeah thats the point.

No flights, no shops, no restaurants, no clubs, bars, anything.

Ignoring it isnt going to make it go away. All it's doing is killing more people ~1 month from now.

 

[larryz]

I work for the restaurant company that operates Olive Garden/Longhorn Steakhouse etc. and it's getting concerning. We closed all dining rooms across the country yesterday, they are now all take out only where allowed. I heard we will also be selling alcohol "to go" in regions that's also allowed. I'm hoping at worst case these will still be allowed to operate because with no revenue for weeks or months... that could go bad very quickly.

If the largest restaurant company in the country is sweating through this... I don't know how the smaller chains or independently ran restaurants are even going to make it through this.

Love Longhorn, but got to say I can't imagine ordering a tomahawk ribeye to go in a styrofoam box...

 

[disneygeek90]

Well even if the US did a China style lockdown, and even if the US was able to completely eradicate the virus from the country by doing so... the US would then have to be a locked down country allowing no foreign travellers to visit the US until the rest of the world was virus free.

That's arguably what we could have done before this entered the US if taken seriously.

 

[UNCgolf]

To the bold- we don’t know that will happen. We are trying to take precautions to find a balance. We will see if it works, or not. We don’t know either way right now.

I'm aware; I mentioned that in one of my earlier posts. We can't say for sure that's going to happen. It definitely seems to be happening in NYC, but as I also mentioned in an earlier post, the population density there makes it an outlier among the rest of the United States. It'll be much harder for the virus to spread like that in rural areas, or even smaller cities. They are, however, having serious issues in Albany, GA (a small city of about 75,000) because people didn't follow warnings and attended big funerals, which resulted in tons of infections.

My concern is that it's a little like playing Russian roulette (although the chances seem higher than 1 in 6). It's entirely possible that we don't take those mandatory precautions and end up fine. If we don't get an empty chamber, though, the whole world economy is going to collapse in a way none of us have ever experienced and we will desperately wish we had taken those precautions.

 

[larryz]

Herd immunity doesn't work if you people that get the disease lose the immunity. It only works if once you've had it you don;'t get it again... but when you lose the immunity in 3 or 9 months the benefits of immunity are really kind of pointless because every year you are going to be traveling down the same road again.

Herd immunity is also a rotating concept -- if people lose immunity in 9 months (and that's a big if, since we don't know) there will always be a group of people currently immune. And we only have to worry about one cycle, since they're fast-tracking the immunization.

I predict that 2 years from now, COVID-19 will be just another strain in a multivalent annual shot.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Love Longhorn

Don't know if you've ever tried Manny's Chophouse or Cody's Roadhouse over in the Tampa/Clearwater area. I prefer them to Longhorn. Hopefully, they'll open back up.

 

[21stamps]

I'm aware; I mentioned that in one of my earlier posts. We can't say for sure that's going to happen. It definitely seems to be happening in NYC, but as I also mentioned in an earlier post, the population density there makes it an outlier among the rest of the United States. It'll be much harder for the virus to spread like that in rural areas, or even smaller cities. They are, however, having serious issues in Albany, GA (a small city of about 75,000) because people didn't follow warnings and attended big funerals, which resulted in tons of infections.

My concern is that it's a little like playing Russian roulette (although the chances seem higher than 1 in 6). It's entirely possible that we don't take those mandatory precautions and end up fine. If we don't get an empty chamber, though, the whole world economy is going to collapse in a way none of us have ever experienced and we will desperately wish we had taken those precautions.

We will know over the next couple of weeks.. adjustments are being made daily, so things can change at any time if a city or state’s plan is not working.

 

[thomas998]

False equivalency.

Instead... imagine everytime you press the button... you caused 4 other people to press the same button. And also anytime someone presses the button, it adds 20 more people to the queue at the essential service place.

The problem with your zapper analogy is that it only includes death as the consequence and makes it into some individual choice.

Pandemics are not about individuals - they are a communal problem that exist because of the freedom of movement and exchange we have in our world. It's not something individuals gets to opt in or out of. Unless you chose to go live like a hermit in isolation in the wilderness. Then you get the fun of being wiped out by diseases the herd has worked out while you were gone when you interact with the herd.

I never said it was a choice everyone could make, it was simply to illustrate to the other poster that a decision to accept the virus as something we live with forever could kill more people than if we all just got the virus and hospitals collapsed.