DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Me either. But thanks to vaccines, we're doing fine without spikes or surges.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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MaryJaneP
Well-Known Member
Is it advisable to put 20/20 hindsight into 2022? 1 year without vaccines and 1 year with vaccines? It may not help direct actions but may provide greater insight into what happened. Yay there are vaccines that free many from mask mandates. Hopefully continued mask-wearing will become a fringe requirement for those medically or otherwise still at risk,
I'm 100% sure that there won't be a surge in the fall.*
*That is, unless people stop being twits.
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
It may not be a country wide surge but I am expecting to see many places with spikes due to laziness and hesitancy.
So, my twit comment will age well, then.
Tom P.
Well-Known Member
I am confident that we have already vaccinated enough people that, combined with natural immunity, we are not going to see any large-scale surges again. And I think we will continue to see the vaccination rate tick upward, slowly but surely, over the summer months. And I expect to see at least one vaccine approved for the 2-11 age group by early Fall. So, yes, I believe very strongly that the most we will see going forward is minor spikes in specific areas and not major surges. Could I be completely wrong? Of course. But I feel confident in that right now.
I can't wait to take an airplane or the subway without having to wear a mask. But surely that ain't happening anytime soon. Only then will I feel entirely confident.
Think it all depends how you define a "minor" spike vs "major surge."
I fully agree that it is extremely unlikely we see a return of winter 2020.
But surges like happening in the UK right now, are indeed possible. After being under 2,000 cases per day, they are back over 7,000. That would be like the US going back up to 30,000-40,000 per day. So whether you call that "minor" or "major" is just a matter of perspective. It is darn small compared to December 2020, but back to the same level we had in summer 2020.
I'm hoping we will avoid such surges. But if they can happen in the UK, they can happen here.
Wild Mister Toad
Member
Airplanes will likely be mask free in September. The airlines will ensure DOT/FAA drops it.
I'll still wear my mask on planes/trains (not automobiles ).
Today I was in Starbucks and then Target w/out my mask! Signs on the door now say encouraged for non-vaccinated. I've been vaccinated since February and it was hot, humid, we were walking and I said gah! Not wearing it. Most people still had one one, but heck, someone has to be first...
).Today I was in Starbucks and then Target w/out my mask! Signs on the door now say encouraged for non-vaccinated. I've been vaccinated since February and it was hot, humid, we were walking and I said gah! Not wearing it. Most people still had one one, but heck, someone has to be first...
If it was such an arbitrary number, why did you argue so much about it?
Yes, I agree it was arbitrary. The exact number was irrelevant. The relevance -- same now as it was then -- The relevance is whether we are hitting the level needed for herd immunity. At that time, we were observing Israel reaching that level and seeing the effects of herd immunity. Which is why we were using that number as the baseline.
Now, if we can get to herd immunity at a lower vaccination rate, then yay!!!
But, all signs are that we will not reach herd immunity at a lower level. The surge in the UK, which has slightly higher vaccination rates than the US, shows that the current level if inadequate for herd immunity.
So I don't care if it's 58% or 59.3% or 61%... I do care about whether we reach herd immunity. I've been wrong sometimes. Nothing wrong with being wrong.
In April, I was warning we weren't getting close enough to the level needed for herd immunity. You argued strenuously with me that we would get there, "worst case," by June 11th.
So at the time of those posts --
April 21st:
Israel has an average case rate of 141 per day. About 1.5 cases per 100,000. The equivalent of about 5,000 cases per day in the US. Our 7-day rolling average remains about triple that: about 14,000.
So if we had indeed followed your projections, then there is a good shot we would have 65% less cases right now.
The difference between actual herd immunity as opposed to vaccine driven case reduction.
So my warning in April was that we were not on Israel's path towards herd immunity. And we still aren't on the path.
You just bet me we would reach 70% of adults by the end of July. I truly am hoping that you're finally right. I want to be wrong. But maybe it is time to admit that things are not going as wonderfully as we would have hoped, and that this puts us at risk for resurgence. (No, not the same level of as December 2020... but potentially at the same level the UK is facing now).
Love returning to normal. Thrilled with the drop. Not thrilled with 14,000 cases per day and the threat of resurgence, when we should be under 5,000 cases per day and on the path to almost zero. (7-day average in Israel is now 0.1 per 100,000, the equivalent of 330 cases per day in the US... Imagine we had only 330 cases per day, instead of 14,000..... Now that would truly be a reason to celebrate!!!! So I'll smile at the current progress. But I'll throw the party when we are down to 330 cases per day. I fear that won't happen).
Incomudro
Well-Known Member
Someone does have to be the first.I'll still wear my mask on planes/trains (not automobiles
Today I was in Starbucks and then Target w/out my mask! Signs on the door now say encouraged for non-vaccinated. I've been vaccinated since February and it was hot, humid, we were walking and I said gah! Not wearing it. Most people still had one one, but heck, someone has to be first...
I watched a youtube video the other day, where vaccinated people were asked why they were still wearing masks outside.
The replies confirmed many of my suspicions.
One of them said something to the effect of: "I'll stop wearing one when I see other people not wearing theirs." (not the actual quote)
Well, it's got to start somewhere.
MickeyLuv'r
Well-Known Member
Back at the start of this thread, some forum members were highly confident the pandemic would not have a big impact on the US.
It has been an interesting 15 months of predictions here on these forums.
Phil12
Well-Known Member
No, it doesn't. It might just be a good idea to continue wearing masks for the next year even if you are vaccinated. Masks and social distancing have been very effective in reducing influenza:
Flu Has Disappeared for More Than a Year
Mask wearing, social distancing and other steps to stop COVID-19 have also curtailed influenza
Tom P.
Well-Known Member
No.
"THE" steep drop -- the drop seen in Israel, which would now be the equivalent of 330 cases per day.
the "relaxing of restrictions" is a policy decision. They could have relaxed restrictions at 1 million cases per day or at 10 cases per day.
But we have not "hit the important part of the target" -- Unless you think 14,000 cases is the same as 330. Or even the level of 5,000, the equivalent of Israel on April 21.
This is you moving goal posts. Instead of us reaching herd immunity, you now want to celebrate, "woohoo, cases came down."
I never questioned whether cases would come down. I said I expected a massive decline in cases.... But that success would be herd immunity. Not simply a significant case decline.
You keep missing the context. I have repeatedly stated, the exact vaccination number is irrelevant -- the goal is herd immunity. We weren't there in April. We aren't there now. And it's looking unlikely (but not yet impossible) that we will get there.
So if we have 100,000 cases per day and 1,000 deaths per day right now, you'd be celebrating the victory of "reduction of cases" and "return to normal."
The goal we were discussing in April was NOT a mere reduction of cases. It was following Israel's path to herd immunity.
My goal has remained the same.
Has your goal now changed to "good enough", to "well..... the goal was under 5,000 cases per day, but as long as they lift the mask mandate, 14,000 cases per day with threat of future surges is celebration time!"
Actually... that's a change in tune. You claimed we were on Israel's path, just 6 weeks behind. You attacked me when I pointed out we were not on Israel's path.
Yes... My number has changed. Because my number has always been "the lowest possible." And Israel has been the evidence of how low you can go with vaccines and herd immunity.
So "6 weeks behind Israel".. which used to be your refrain -- Would mean celebrating at 5,000 cases by early June (6 weeks later than Israel).. and celebrating at 300 cases per day by mid July (6 weeks from now), and celebrating at under 100 cases per week by the end of the year.
See.. the number changes.. because if you reach herd immunity, the number keeps going down. If we are still having 14,000 cases per day in June 2022.. that would be a dismal failure. Though having 14,000 cases per day now is "ok" given the circumstances. It's certainly a vast improvement compared to where we were.
So yes.. we should have been under 10,000 by mid May.. under 5,000 by now, and in the 300 ballpark by July/August.. because that's herd immunity.
Goof.. this is something you said in Mid-April:
"My opinion is based on hope but also grounded in reality. We have real world examples in other countries that are ahead of us on vaccinations to see what the potential impact can be. We have numerous polls that say vaccine acceptance will be north of 70% and 65+ around 85%. Right now the 65+ demographic is 81% and still climbing. It hasn’t stalled out. We are close to seeing the demographic group who had first access to the vaccine get pretty close to the number in the poll so it’s not unreasonable to think the 70%+ could be a good number. Getting to 70% of the eligible Americans 12+ will get us over 60% of the total population. We will have more than enough doses to vaccinate those people by the end of May. I am actually optimistic that we can get closer to 80% of the eligible people vaccinated which gets us to 68% of the general population. We are seeing in a country like Israel that 59% of the population with 1 shot was enough to maybe reach herd immunity. We can get there and get there in less than 6 weeks
."I completely and wholeheartedly agree with the goals you set forth back then.
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DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Is trains too such as NJ Transit may lose masks soon in NJ by late July or August?
Figgy1
Well-Known Member
Probably not until at least September
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Right now Canada is at 72% with at least one dose for those 12+ and 63% total population.
I agree that 70% total population will happen within 2 weeks.
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