I think you missed the context. The only reason we were ever discussing Israel is because they were ahead of us on vaccines and we used that as a proxy to estimate a ballpark level of cases we could possibly achieve given a certain vaccination level. The date was only relevant as to when we would see the steep drop in cases
"THE" steep drop -- the drop seen in Israel, which would now be the equivalent of 330 cases per day.
and the relaxing of restrictions. We have seen both already so we hit the important part of the target.
the "relaxing of restrictions" is a policy decision. They could have relaxed restrictions at 1 million cases per day or at 10 cases per day.
But we have not "hit the important part of the target" -- Unless you think 14,000 cases is the same as 330. Or even the level of 5,000, the equivalent of Israel on April 21.
This is you moving goal posts. Instead of us reaching herd immunity, you now want to celebrate, "woohoo, cases came down."
I never questioned whether cases would come down. I said I expected a massive decline in cases.... But that success would be herd immunity. Not simply a significant case decline.
Instead you took all those discussions as some sort of contest that if we didn’t hit their level of vaccination by a specific date
You keep missing the context. I have repeatedly stated, the exact vaccination number is irrelevant -- the goal is herd immunity. We weren't there in April. We aren't there now. And it's looking unlikely (but not yet impossible) that we will get there.
than I was proven wrong and you could play the gotcha game and say ”I told you so”. The end game has always been a reduction of cases and a return to normal.
So if we have 100,000 cases per day and 1,000 deaths per day right now, you'd be celebrating the victory of "reduction of cases" and "return to normal."
The goal we were discussing in April was NOT a mere reduction of cases. It was following Israel's path to herd immunity.
My goal has remained the same.
Has your goal now changed to "good enough", to "well..... the goal was under 5,000 cases per day, but as long as they lift the mask mandate, 14,000 cases per day with threat of future surges is celebration time!"
So while it brings you great pleasure to repost things I said months ago and point out where I’m wrong it’s irrelevant. As I‘ve said all along we don’t have to follow the exact path any other country has.
Actually... that's a change in tune. You claimed we were on Israel's path, just 6 weeks behind. You attacked me when I pointed out we were not on Israel's path.
So right now I’m happy with the progress we have made. I understand from your post that you are not “thrilled” with it, and that’s fine. I’m more optimistic in our prospects and you continue to be pessimistic. I’ll enjoy my return to normal, you keep doing you and be disappointed until we hit 300 cases a day now. Each post that daily number continues to drop. 3 months ago it was 10,000 then 3,000 then 1,000 and now 300.
Yes... My number has changed. Because my number has always been "the lowest possible." And Israel has been the evidence of how low you can go with vaccines and herd immunity.
So "6 weeks behind Israel".. which used to be your refrain -- Would mean celebrating at 5,000 cases by early June (6 weeks later than Israel).. and celebrating at 300 cases per day by mid July (6 weeks from now), and celebrating at under 100 cases per week by the end of the year.
See.. the number changes.. because if you reach herd immunity, the number keeps going down. If we are still having 14,000 cases per day in June 2022.. that would be a dismal failure. Though having 14,000 cases per day now is "ok" given the circumstances. It's certainly a vast improvement compared to where we were.
So yes.. we should have been under 10,000 by mid May.. under 5,000 by now, and in the 300 ballpark by July/August.. because that's herd immunity.
Goof.. this is something you said in Mid-April:
"My opinion is based on hope but also grounded in reality. We have real world examples in other countries that are ahead of us on vaccinations to see what the potential impact can be. We have numerous polls that say vaccine acceptance will be north of 70% and 65+ around 85%. Right now the 65+ demographic is 81% and still climbing. It hasn’t stalled out. We are close to seeing the demographic group who had first access to the vaccine get pretty close to the number in the poll so it’s not unreasonable to think the 70%+ could be a good number. Getting to 70% of the eligible Americans 12+ will get us over 60% of the total population. We will have more than enough doses to vaccinate those people by the end of May. I am actually optimistic that we can get closer to 80% of the eligible people vaccinated which gets us to 68% of the general population. We are seeing in a country like Israel that 59% of the population with 1 shot was enough to maybe reach herd immunity. We can get there and get there in less than 6 weeks
."
I completely and wholeheartedly agree with the goals you set forth back then.
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