Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[pixie225]

As far as giving "incentives" to get vaccines, they seem to be concentrating on areas that have a higher infection rate and lower vaccination rate. Whatever it takes to get our state, and hopefully nation up and running again is great in my book. If giving a donut or free subway pass does it, so be it. Broadway is selling tickets again for their 100% capacity re-opening. Today in NY 12-15 year olds can walk into state sites and get vaccinated with Pfizer. All good.

 

[GoofGoof]

Sorry, I don't understand your numbers. I've used the CDC site to take 3 screen captures in order to show how the rate of first doses has declined for the dates I think you had in mind.

Let's start with some basic numbers from the CDC. These are the total number of first doses.

• April 21: 139,419,420
• April 28: 146,374,502
• May 5: 151,596,332

This means:

• 6,955,082 first doses from April 22 to April 28 (7 days)
• 5,221,830 first doses from April 29 to May 5 (7 days)

This represents a decline of 24.9%.

Please refer to the below screen captures for the CDC data.

View attachment 557062


View attachment 557063

View attachment 557064

I said this:

Per the CDC today 151,455,299 adults have received their first dose. Per the same list on May 5 (7 days ago) 146,335,135 had received their first dose. That is 5,120,164 new adult first doses or 731,452 per day on average not 480,000. The pace may drop further in the short to medium term or it may not.

Nobody was claiming the rate didn’t drop from the peak periods. The current pace is pretty stable with a small decline week over week. When we had that discussion the pace was at 1.5 to 2M so that wasn’t untrue just like nothing I posted about today’s stats is untrue. On April 28 the total adults with 1 shot was 140,792,606 so 5,542,529 for the previous 7 days (4/28 - 5/5) which is an average of 791,790 a day. That means this weeks 731,452 a day average is a decrease of 7.6% week over week. Not down 25%. Much better than that.

So assuming the same 7.6% drop each week
4.73M week ending 5/19
4.37M week ending 5/26
4.04M week ending 6/3
3.73M week ending 6/10
3.45M week ending 6/17
3.19M week ending 6/24
2.95M week ending 7/1

26.46M doses which gets over the 70% target. That is also assuming a constant decline in vaccination rate which is not guaranteed to be the case. It could drop further, it could drop less. You are assuming a steeper drop off but the drop off has actually slowed. Many areas have just started to ramp up their efforts to draw people in through outreach programs and plans are evolving. We also have the prospect soon of full FDA approval for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines so that may clear an additional hurdle for vaccine hesitancy. The JnJ vaccine coming back may have also helped. Despite some people being nervous they are still using it and it does have appeal to someone who wants the one and done.

I’m not making this stuff up but since that‘s the implication here are the screen shots from each day I referenced from the CDC page. They show how many adults 18+ had received their first shots as of each date It all ties to exactly what I posted. As I said we have no idea where the numbers will go from here and my only point in posting this is to show that the drop off has slowed week over week. Sorry for having optimism about the prospects of reaching the vaccination target. You guys may end up being right and we may fail. I’m not willing to give up yet and hopefully the people in charge who matter aren’t either.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Why are we classifying the goal as 70% of adults? You do realize that’s only about 56% of the population right? Just because kids can’t get vaccinated doesn’t mean they can’t get Covid. If the goal is to stamp out Covid with herd immunity we need to get to 70% of the entire population. If we were only relying on adults that would require approximately 87.5% vaccination among adults, now with 12+ it means 82% vaccinations among eligible participants.

Just because OC Florida is defying their goal as vaccinated adults does not mean the CDC is.

And to head off the counter argument right away, here’s national Covid Cases broken down by age, you will notice that children are still getting the same amount of Covid cases daily that they were at the national peak, only adult cases have lessened.

View attachment 557155

because we can’t be expected to have higher than “minimum standards”

it’s kinda like buying “Disney after hours”

the “high cost” of “low standards”

...the focus on the vaccines has been the bare minimum from the start - not the maximum. Bad narrative

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I actually heard this out of crew member two days ago. He said in a Monday morning, "you guys need to get it so I don't have to".
I do believe that there is a huge factor too. I've never seen so many rough and tough grown men turn into marshmallows when their is talk of shots and needles.

Tell them to suck it up, buttercup.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I said this:


I’m not making this stuff up but since that‘s the implication here are the screen shots from each day I referenced from the CDC page. They show how many adults 18+ had received their first shots as of each date It all ties to exactly what I posted. As I said we have no idea where the numbers will go from here and my only point in posting this is to show that the drop off has slowed week over week. Sorry for having optimism about the prospects of reaching the vaccination target. You guys may end up being right and we may fail. I’m not willing to give up yet and hopefully the people in charge who matter aren’t either.

View attachment 557156
View attachment 557157
View attachment 557168

but we know EXACTLY where the numbers are gonna go...
...they’re gonna drop.

we are entering the “should I work on my tan/go fishing?...or go to a clinic and get a covid vaccine?” Time of the year.

...or are we gonna now start to ignore human nature?

 

[GoofGoof]

Why are we classifying the goal as 70% of adults? You do realize that’s only about 56% of the population right? Just because kids can’t get vaccinated doesn’t mean they can’t get Covid. If the goal is to stamp out Covid with herd immunity we need to get to 70% of the entire population. If we were only relying on adults that would require approximately 87.5% vaccination among adults, now with 12+ it means 82% vaccinations among eligible participants.

Just because OC Florida is defying their goal as vaccinated adults does not mean the CDC is.

And to head off the counter argument right away, here’s national Covid Cases broken down by age, you will notice that children are still getting the same amount of Covid cases daily that they were at the national peak, only adult cases have lessened.

View attachment 557155

Why do we need to reach 70% of the total population vaccinated? Israel is at 60% of the total population vaccinated and has effectively reached herd immunity based on their case numbers and trends. When you go down to 12+ that’s roughly 280M Americans so if we get to 70% of that group it’s roughly 60% of the total population.

 

[correcaminos]

The ones that are worried are the ones who had contacted covid and possibly are worried about side effects from getting the vaccine. My brother's friend a healthy guy in his early 50s no underlying health conditions tested positive after a business trip. He quarantined with symptoms and collapsed and was rushed to the ER then covid ward for several days . When he got his first covid shot two months later he said he felt like he experienced covid again and was bedridden for several days but not sent to a hospital. Doubts about getting the second shot.

Oh I get that, fortunately the people I have talked to for 2nd shot were totally fine after the bad 1st. I hope that points to be true at least for most if not nearly all. My few friends who had J&J after having covid both felt lousy too. Actually worse than my 2 dose friends. But totally anecdotal evidence. I wish those reports would give some hope.

 

[GoofGoof]

but we know EXACTLY where the numbers are gonna go...
...they’re gonna drop.

we are entering the “should I work on my tan/go fishing?...or go to a clinic and get a covid vaccine?” Time of the year.

...or are we gonna now start to ignore human nature?

It is what it is. We can’t make people go faster. The whole point I’ve been making is that the speed has slowed down but that’s not the end of the world (it was actually part of the plan) and not the end of the vaccine effort. People are still getting vaccinated. It hasn’t stopped. Did people think we would just stay at 2M doses a day until everyone who wanted a vaccine went and then the next day would go to zero? That’s not how it works. The rush happened just like the polling predicted. The group who wanted the vaccine as soon as they could get it has gone. There’s another group who will never get the vaccine and they haven’t budged. It’s the group in between who say they will get the vaccine but haven’t yet that will go eventually. It’s a slow grind but I still think we will get there.

 

[correcaminos]

I actually heard this out of crew member two days ago. He said in a Monday morning, "you guys need to get it so I don't have to".
I do believe that there is a huge factor too. I've never seen so many rough and tough grown men turn into marshmallows when their is talk of shots and needles.

So true! I told a few people if my 13yo can get the shot, you can too. I have no issue "shaming" wusses like that into it. Though truly I am all about holding hands when needed. So not totally callous, but still mom enough to be "mean"

 

[Touchdown]

Why do we need to reach 70% of the total population vaccinated? Israel is at 60% of the total population vaccinated and has effectively reached herd immunity based on their case numbers and trends. When you go down to 12+ that’s roughly 280M Americans so if we get to 70% of that group it’s roughly 60% of the total population.

That’s the goal the CDC set, I think it’s conservative because as you pointed out Israel achieved herd immunity at 60% and that’s the number I’m hoping we get to but increasingly feel we won’t. 70% of adults doesn’t get us to 60% total population it only gets us to 56% which therefore should not be the goalpost you keep touting. Reworking the numbers for 60%, we need 75% of all adults (with no kids) or if you count 12-18 year olds 70%.

 

[GoofGoof]

That’s the goal the CDC set, I think it’s conservative because as you pointed out Israel achieved herd immunity at 60% and that’s the number I’m hoping we get to but increasingly feel we won’t. 70% of adults doesn’t get us to 60% total population it only gets us to 56% which therefore should not be the goalpost you keep touting. Reworking the numbers for 60%, we need 75% of all adults (with no kids) or if you count 12-18 year olds 70%.

The goal that was set isn’t 70% of adults and then we stop. It was 70% of adults by July 4. The final number vaccinated will still go higher over time. I also think they set a conservative and achievable goal. Polling shows it‘s likely to be closer to 75% will get vaccinated but they left a cushion. They left children out because they just became eligible. I think kids 12-15 end up about the same percent as adults 18-64 which is lower than the 18+ number since that includes 65+ at over 80%. I think that kid group probably ends up in the 60-70% range. Overall we could/should hit 60% of the total population vaccinated by some time in July.

On Israel, we actually saw their cases drop off hard when they reached around 55% of the population with 1 shot. They just hit 60% yesterday, but the cases have been trending way down since early March when they were around 55% vaccinated. 55% in the US is 71% of adults.

Edit: here is a chart showing Israel hit 55% of the population with 1 shot on March 1 and the table below shows the start of their big decline right after that point.

 

[LaughingGravy]

The ones that are worried are the ones who had contacted covid and possibly are worried about side effects from getting the vaccine. My brother's friend a healthy guy in his early 50s no underlying health conditions tested positive after a business trip. He quarantined with symptoms and collapsed and was rushed to the ER then covid ward for several days . When he got his first covid shot two months later he said he felt like he experienced covid again and was bedridden for several days but not sent to a hospital. Doubts about getting the second shot.

After all that, doubts about getting the second shot? I wonder if he gets the brakes done on his car, he only gets three wheels done?

 

[Andrew C]

How a small Texas town doubled its COVID-19 vaccination rate in a month as the state’s rate declined

Mount Pleasant in northeast Texas lags behind the state in its vaccination rate, but the town is boosting its numbers by mobilizing churches, nonprofits and other trusted community leaders to help overcome residents’ fears and doubts.

www.texastribune.org

 

[Epcotfan21]

Almost 48 hours after my second Moderna vaccine and basically had the same side effects as the first shot. Sore arm and a bit of fatigue. Never got the chills, body aches or fever that seems like most people experienced.

 

[LaughingGravy]

Almost 48 hours after my second Moderna vaccine and basically had the same side effects as the first shot. Sore arm and a bit of fatigue. Never got the chills, body aches or fever that seems like most people experienced.

Ditto.........."Ditto??"- Hedley Lamarr
LOL

 

[HarperRose]

There are still some major hot spots. I saw one county in north Texas that has 133 new daily cases per 100,000. There's another in Michigan, and I think another in Wisconsin that each have over 100 new cases per 100,000.

Our entire state (WI) had 558 cases yesterday (Wed May 12th).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It is what it is. We can’t make people go faster. The whole point I’ve been making is that the speed has slowed down but that’s not the end of the world (it was actually part of the plan) and not the end of the vaccine effort. People are still getting vaccinated. It hasn’t stopped. Did people think we would just stay at 2M doses a day until everyone who wanted a vaccine ppwent and then the next day would go to zero? That’s not how it works. The rush happened just like the polling predicted. The group who wanted the vaccine as soon as they could get it has gone. There’s another group who will never get the vaccine and they haven’t budged. It’s the group in between who say they will get the vaccine but haven’t yet that will go eventually. It’s a slow grind but I still think we will get there.

we actually could have done a much better job. And we all know it...and nobody will admit it.

shut up and do it. “National” program. Or if you want to refight the war - “statewide initiative”

...what times the parade?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Why do we need to reach 70% of the total population vaccinated? Israel is at 60% of the total population vaccinated and has effectively reached herd immunity based on their case numbers and trends. When you go down to 12+ that’s roughly 280M Americans so if we get to 70% of that group it’s roughly 60% of the total population.

good god...why are we trying to make it “easier” on the wealthiest, most opinionated, most entitled citizenry in the history of the planet?

...aren’t we ashamed that this is a “given”?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Our entire state (WI) had 558 cases yesterday (Wed May 12th).

we’re they concentrated in pockets? That doesn’t make that necessarily incorrect.

 

[disneygeek90]

I didn't think virtually anyone had any side effects after the first shot other than a possible sore arm.