Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
C

celluloid

Well-Known Member
Saw the undecided nature of the Run Event on the main page. I am not thinking the Star Wars run event in mid april is happening. I think Disney is doing like it does with this rolling closing for obvious business reasons. You don't want to refund so many thigns immeidately and keep up stock as much as possible while they can even if it is very unlikely to reopen.
 
H

HongKongFooy

Well-Known Member
MrPromey said:
A bad economy hurts everyone.
Click to expand...


NOPE

Let's throw some quick safe generalities around shall we:

Dollar stores
Fast food
Bankruptcy/debt consolidation firms
Auto mechanics
Alcohol industry
Pawn shops
Home Depot/Lowe's type stores
Gun makers and sellers
Parapsychology
Cult organizations
Cannned good makers and sellers
Costco/Walmart/Target and the like

But ya, far far more will be adversely affected and feel the hurt than the profiteers.
 
Last edited:
C

celluloid

Well-Known Member
HongKongFooy said:
NOPE

Let's throw some quick safe generalities around shall we:

Dollar stores
Fast food
Bankruptcy/debt consolidation firms
Auto mechanics
Alcohol industry
Pawn shops
Home Depot/Lowe's type stores
Gun makers and sellers
Parapsychology
Cult organizations
Cannned good makers and sellers
Costco/Walmart/Target and the like
Click to expand...

That is a good point. It depends on the industry. This one is definitely a travel industry panic where the economomy can bounce back but certain industry, of course entertainment based and social activities(bars, resturants, traveling venues) take the big hits.

What is bad if it is a globally rough economic situation where production is halted. That has been a big concern with this is China went on for so long with closures of major things and can hurt production and trade.
 
C

celluloid

Well-Known Member
Pooh.sHoneyHuntTDL said:
Amazon
Netflix
Duo Lingo
pretty much anything online based will do better (unless internet breaks from too much use)
Click to expand...

Not everything. Because the content created for Netflix has already taken an extreme hit, eventually that will wane. And advertising is what keeps the internet and those apps going. Those are more effected then your cheaper brick and mortor Gorcery stores are king in this scenario.
 
L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
CNN reporting that the CDC recommending -" Health care workers can wear homemade masks as last resort, consider allowing exposed doctors to keep working. "
 
lazyboy97o

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
RobWDW1971 said:
Actually senior citizens represent a small part of the consumer economy as their spending dramatically decreases in retirement and certainly as they get into 70's-90's, which is why advertisers do not consider them "in the demo" (they do spend disproportionately on cruises, but that's an anomaly).

However, the spending on senior citizens for healthcare, housing, hospice is enormous. Losing the current two million seniors a year doesn't impact the economy as their spending on consumer goods and housing is reduced by that age, hence a 20-30% increase in senior deaths would not have a devastating economic impact (actually some would be netted out against the cost of their extended healthcare costs). The senior living and drug stocks would get crushed though.

If you spent years around insurance actuaries like I have these conversations of risk, death rates, and trade offs are as common as debating the value of FP+.

Everybody dies, it's just about probability tables and timing.
Click to expand...
Where did I take any issue with the number of people dying? You wanted to know why we couldn’t just isolate those who are high risk and move on, but that group and their dependents and care givers is a much larger chunk of the population than you allude.

You also continue to mischaracterize the disease as something that only effects a small group of the elderly while everyone else is just fine. That is not true. 55% of the Americans who have required hospitalization so far are aged 20-64 and these stays are proving to be long stays.
(https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w)
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
scorp16 said:
I've got early May at Legoland at the new Pirate Hotel and late May at Coronado. I've pretty much written those off. But haven't cancelled quite yet.
Click to expand...
I know no more than anyone else in the world, but if I were you I would hold out hope for Coronado. If extreme social distancing works and things follow the path of Wuhan as an example there’s a 3 month curve. We should peak around the end of April and start seeing declines in May. Depending on how well people listen we could see things opening sometime in May. Probably a modified park experience as Steve described on the main page, but it’s better than where we are right now. I’m pulling for you to make it :)
 
C

celluloid

Well-Known Member
lazyboy97o said:
Where did I take any issue with the number of people dying? You wanted to know why we couldn’t just isolate those who are high risk and move on, but that group and their dependents and care givers is a much larger chunk of the population than you allude.

You also continue to mischaracterize the disease as something that only effects a small group of the elderly while everyone else is just fine. That is not true. 55% of the Americans who have required hospitalization so far are aged 20-64 and these stays are proving to be long stays.
(https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w)
Click to expand...

That can be a bit misleading too as that would happen with many similar ailments to this sort of upper resipitory problem when someone us immune deficient with previous health conditions or is a heavy smoker/asmathic/unhealthy.
What concerns me is the articles and reports that state organ failure, that seem to be to suggest something besides the lungs. That could be sensationalism too.
 
N

natatomic

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
At least we'll have data about how that strategy works vs. what we're doing here.

My biggest issue is that the "lockdown" method does not rid the country/world of the virus. It "flattens the curve" while the restrictions are in place. They seem to be banking on a natural slowing of spread when the "season" ends in April or May to keep the tail of the curve suppressed.

The whole cycle will start again until there is a vaccine. I just don't think you can shut the world down again in November. At some point there will be civil unrest because the government won't be able to keep sending out checks to keep everyone from freaking out.
Click to expand...

this may be a dumb question, but how did H1N1 and SARS and MERS disappear without a vaccine? I mean, maybe they’re still around but just in smaller numbers, but they’re still not on the vaccine schedule. Could the Coronavirus do the same?
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
MrPromey said:
A bad economy hurts everyone. For all those retired people relying on retirement funds and various other investments to be "retired", many are watching what's happening to that money that was supposed to last them the rest of their lives and freaking out - especially the ones that need to make withdraws now while everything is heading down in order to maintain.

Don't know why you seem to think retired people are somehow immune to the economic effects of all of this. If anything, for them it's more scary because some may be thinking (rationally or not) about how they may need to rejoin the workforce once this is all said and done when they thought they'd done what they needed to to be set for the remainder of their lives.

You think a twenty-something is worried? Imagine the seventy-year-old who is afraid they may have to compete with them for that job at Walmart.
Click to expand...
A large number of people are working into their 70s now. It’s not inconceivable that older Americans are hurt by layoffs and a decrease in the economy. The big difference is even if you still work, your healthcare is covered by Medicare so you don’t lose health benefits as well as income. The retirement money should not be an issue. If you are retired or still working but close to retirement age you should have none of the money you need to live on invested in stocks. It’s OK to keep “extra“ money in growth stocks but not the money you need. Any half decent financial planner would know that. Social security is also safe from the market crash. That money won’t change. Seniors should feel the impact of an economic downturn less than most other demographics.

The same logic as retirement applies to college savings accounts, but people tend to be less diligent in managing them. There are probably a bunch of people with kids in high school who are afraid to look at their 529 accounts right now. May be a big boom for community colleges and state schools which tend to be more affordable.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
natatomic said:
this may be a dumb question, but how did H1N1 and SARS and MERS disappear without a vaccine? I mean, maybe they’re still around but just in smaller numbers, but they’re still not on the vaccine schedule. Could the Coronavirus do the same?
Click to expand...
I think one of the issues is they were far less widespread. This is an old chart as Corona is in 120+ countries now. It’s also far less deadly. One benefit of a high mortality rate is the people aren’t around to spread the disease. Morbid but true.

8C3D68A7-1502-4AAE-9C4A-20678996297E.jpeg
 
NickMaio

NickMaio

Well-Known Member
lazyboy97o said:
Where did I take any issue with the number of people dying? You wanted to know why we couldn’t just isolate those who are high risk and move on, but that group and their dependents and care givers is a much larger chunk of the population than you allude.

You also continue to mischaracterize the disease as something that only effects a small group of the elderly while everyone else is just fine. That is not true. 55% of the Americans who have required hospitalization so far are aged 20-64 and these stays are proving to be long stays.
(https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w)
Click to expand...
Thank you.......
The misinformation is almost as dangerous as the virus.
 
monykalyn

monykalyn

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
I think one of the issues is they were far less widespread. This is an old chart as Corona is in 120+ countries now. It’s also far less deadly. One benefit of a high mortality rate is the people aren’t around to spread the disease. Morbid but true.

View attachment 457282
Click to expand...
Yeah CV19 is going to look a lot more like the H1N1 except the media is hyping it up. I don’t remember nightly death counts in 2009. :rolleyes:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom