Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[celluloid]

Asian culture tends to be more respectful of elders and authority. People in the US won't even cover their cough. I doubt they will wear masks to protect others.

Some cultural ways yes and some not. Like everywhere else. Also like everywhere else there is a lot of communication, and only N95 grade masks are going to help you reduce the risks for others. But as stated, the surgical masks do not really do anything at all with micro systems and other situations. Many studies show people touch their face and eyes more often adjusting masks or removing and returning them to their face, and you know where people often get this virus? Through the eye membranes.

It's a nice thought, but a lot of misinformation.

 

[Rimmit]

Asian culture tends to be more respectful of elders and authority. People in the US won't even cover their cough. I doubt they will wear masks to protect others.

Asian culture is ALL about respecting your elders and authority.

This was best exhibited by the Korean Air Culture and their track record with crashes.

Also anecdotally, as an Asian, you are genetically engineered to never question your Parents. Ever.

 

[21stamps]

The issue is much like the masks, they are not doing much if anything. If someone feels fine and comes to work every day, they could be spreading it as well as customers that have it and feel fine with no symptoms.


It means very little though.medically speaking unless this is for health in general besides this virus. Those who are Asymptomatic are being said to spread it more. Someone feels fine, has no symptoms including no fever spreads it and never knew they had it. The guy checking the temperature of people is doing more damage then likely not checking at all.

Do we know this to be true? Wouldn’t we be seeing a lot more hospitalizations if it was happening this way?

 

[Figgy1]

Asian culture is ALL about respecting your elders and authority.

This was best exhibited by the Korean Air Culture and their track record with crashes.

Also anecdotally, as an Asian, you are genetically engineered to never question your Parents. Ever.

^^^^This be being a Mets fan brought them to tears and me sometimes, Mets lol I don't dare say what an A without the + brought

 

[MrPromey]

This is happening now, but the issues, and justifications given, were very different.

I was an adult during the oil crisis - we were told that we had to conserve energy, buy smaller and more full efficient cars, and odd/even gasoline days and waiting in line would be the new normal - because we were running out of oil and better to suffer a bit now rather than our grandchildren living in a cold, dark world. I don't think I was the only one who "bought" the we're running out of oil scenario and then felt like a fool when I discovered it was just OPEC trying to keep the prices high.

Geez Mom, it's like you were sleeping all those years on Elen's Energy Adventure!

 

[MrPromey]

Doesn't take long to destroy your economy which if your retired or whatever so what? Better safe than sorry. This current event will have no effect on my living standard but that's not true for 10's of millions of people in the US> History has shown that high unemployment rates lead to all sorts of bad outcomes.

This situation can't go on for 6 months.......you may think it can but it can't without social unrest. When people start blaming the government for ruining their lives to save the old there will be problems. That's how it will be viewed by broke, unemployed young people.

A bad economy hurts everyone. For all those retired people relying on retirement funds and various other investments to be "retired", many are watching what's happening to that money that was supposed to last them the rest of their lives and freaking out - especially the ones that need to make withdraws now while everything is heading down in order to maintain.

Don't know why you seem to think retired people are somehow immune to the economic effects of all of this. If anything, for them it's more scary because some may be thinking (rationally or not) about how they may need to rejoin the workforce once this is all said and done when they thought they'd done what they needed to to be set for the remainder of their lives.

You think a twenty-something is worried? Imagine the seventy-year-old who is afraid they may have to compete with them for that job at Walmart.

 

[monykalyn]

The bigger picture says Confirmed cases pass 200,000, more than 8,000 people have died.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#italian-media I like this site better as it gives % mild/severe cases and active cases.

I think the last report has 86% being asymptomatic carriers... Which is a very big number and indicates that this is a far less deadly disease than most people think.

I still haven't found any proof anywhere that "86% are asymptomatic carriers"????

When they talk about mild they just mean not needing hospitalization. My wife had the flu in December and didn’t need to be in the hospital but she was knocked out in bed suffering for about a week. It’s not pleasant at all. I think some of the people out in crowds and not following suggestions hear “mild“ and not in a high risk group and think it will be just like a cold or the sniffles. It could be, but it may be a lot worse too.

Part of the issue seems to be the wide variable in symptoms.

So please be careful when you describe the high risk group as old, feeble, and should be ready to go. I have a few more items on my bucket list, thank you very much!

Heck some of the residents in the nursing home may be frail medically but holy heck sharp minds! I very much enjoy listening to their stories too (to the detriment of my own work sometimes)

it will be like the boy who cried wolf.

People will accept small mistakes and chalk it up to knowing nobody's perfect... but if you miss by a huge margin you'll lose credibility.

Yes-if this turns out to be highly infectious but overall less deadly-what happens the next time a bug comes along?

We need to work on 1) accountability for the media. No more bull. And 2) teaching people how to discern the facts from all the hype.

Yes Please!!

I would love to see some information or studies from anyone reputable that shows this isn’t as bad as the so called experts all seem to unilaterally agree on

There is stuff available but you have to read the WHOLE article and understand the limitations they have working with small sample sizes and the pieces of information they know they don't have all the information on. And then compare it to other disease spreads as well.

Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate

www.cidrap.umn.edu

Overall it does a fairly good job breaking down some numbers. If you look at above link-of all the cases tested 6% were considered critical, with 50-60% fatality rate among the critical, and those most likely to be critical were older and comorbid conditions. Realistically this is the same population at risk for any disease outbreak.

t watching Walter Cronkite.

Ugh I grew up on Walter Cronkite. RIP Spaceship Earth (even if he was several iterations ago)

There was no Y2K meltdown BC great engineers worked their fingers to the bone for years to redo code and rebuild systems to prevent that from happening.

There was still PLENTY of doomsday predictions going around though. My mom was in management at a major hospital and she had to spend the night there to just in case the hospital went into black out (although as she said-she and other managers weren't going to be able to do a ****thing if everything shut down for the AI's to take over at stroke of midnight

But lack of societal common sense makes a one size fits all directive necessary.

Cuban Missile Crisis.

I'm a bit too young for that, but grew up next to major Minutemen missile base, where dad was civilian tech after AF discharge. I remember wondering why a DESK was going to protect me from a monster missile?

How many people have moderate or mild symptoms and don't care; they keep interacting with society anyway?

[It's interesting to watch the media shift their coverage now to the "terrified doctors and nurses".
[/QUOTE] There aren't any "terrified" medical personnel - concerned, aware, taking precautions but hyperbole "terrified"? no.

But I know several doctors who are taking this seriously

Well yes, like they should?

But there are vaccines for the flu. There isn't one, yet, for this.

Please look up flu deaths yearly (just do USA if you'd like) even with a vaccine, and how full hospitals get with flu related complications. Yes I KNOW this ISN"T the flu. but it isn't the black plague/Captain tripps either!

really don't know if that was the first flu season but certainly the first (and thankfully only) flu pandemic.

Wow um nope. 2009 H1N1 was a pandemic. 2017-2018 was close. Heck this year we were near pandemic levels for flu/pneumonia https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

We probably will not have to stay at home in the future unless ill., One good thing to come out of this is that we may lessen the incidences and deaths associated with seasonal flu going forward.

I am ok with that! Flu was hard hit this year. Looking at the stats northern Italy was especially hard hit this year as well-possibly a factor in the rapid case count/fatality there???

ending up in a Google black hole.

Many many times

The population density there is enormous. Self quarantine is the equivalent of being in a jail cell.

Population density probably plays alot into how well you can physically distance yourself.

They just aren’t testing.

I think this whole country is going to see a huge spike in confirmed COVID-19 cases in the next 48 hours.. what I’m wondering is how many are hospitalizations.

yes, and the issue is if they are only testing those with >mild symptoms or rationing with the usual strict criteria then we still won't know actual mortality rate, infection rate etc. So the number of cases going critical is much higher than what is probably actually circulating around. Seems this bug is probably pretty easy to catch...which leads me wonder how long it has been around? I cannot find the black google hole where I was reading about the Washington researchers findings on that outbreak-but IIRC they estimated ~1100 cases circulating of CV19 and had been around ~6 weeks before the first "official" confirmed case.

you may think it can but it can't without social unrest

I'm already going crazy with the hubs and kids home for next 3 weeks so that social unrest may start with me. And now I am mostly working from home. On the positive side-house will finally get painted and maybe the fireplace redone, my garden planted and the hardwood floors I've been wanting for 10 years put in LOL.

I can't remember who posted this article earlier but it is written by an actual expert at Stanford and backed with facts.

That was me. It is a good site. Here is a breakdown of infection/mortality by numbers and includes pediatrics

New analysis breaks down age-group risk for coronavirus — and shows millennials are not invincible

The data show that of people ages 20-44 who are infected with #coronavirus, up to one-fifth have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required ICU treatment.

www.statnews.com

Yes I had to multi-multi-quote again. ya'll move so fast!

 

[BrianLo]

Anecdotal - but finally I'm seeing FP+ cancellations the first week of May.

I almost certainly will no longer be going, but I've been keeping an eye on it. Finally the US general public are realizing they have a problem.

 

[Chef Mickey]

There are only a handful of people alive now who were alive then, and they were babies or toddlers. My now long deceased neighbor was a young girl then, and she would tell stories about seeing someone in church on Sunday and going to their funeral on Tuesday - until they prohibited both church services and non-family at funerals.

Those of us who survived the polio epidemic are Boomers now, and most were pretty young, so we only have limited memories of that time. I remember my mother being so frightened that I got every vaccination that came out in every delivery form - needles, high pressure "gun" and finally, sugar cubes. So both Salk & Sabin vaccines. I remember the beaches, theaters, and amusement park being closed. I don't remember schools closing, but I was PK/Kindergarten age, and Kindergarten wasn't required. I do remember the after affects, such as a classmate with leg braces & crutches, some fellow schoolmates with limps, and a friend's mother using a chest compressor in their dining room turned into a hospital room.

OK Boomer.

Sorry, had to.

 

[thomas998]

You may think 6-7 percent of those infected is a low number, but it’s not always about just the percentage of people who required admission that is important. There are many parts to this puzzle.

I will attempt to explain how hospitals operate (I work in healthcare, and only in an ICU setting).

Let’s say an ICU has 15 beds. Let’s say I get 3 easy admissions that only require a 2 day ICU stay. The average length of stay (LOS) is 2 days. It’s a total of 6 patient days. Now let’s say I get one Covid patient. The average LOS for a Covid patient that survives is 10 days. Longer if they die, but let’s work with just the living ones right now. That one Covid patient took nearly double the ICU patient days as the 3 other patients (6 patient days vs 10 patient days). The fact that these patients do not turn over quickly is a compounding factor in this disease.

It’s not just the percentage that require admissions that’s a problem, but the severity of disease matters as well. I’d rather have a 20 percent admission rate for a disease with a LOS of 2 days (40 total patient days/100 patients with disease) vs a 6 percent admission rate for a disease that has a LOS of 10 days (60 total patient days/100 patients with disease).

It is a problem, but it can also be mitigated somewhat by deciding how long to treat the patient as a viable survivor and when to move them out of ICU and accept that they are not going to recover. From what has been described by doctor of the ones that have died, their lungs are so completely trashed by the immune systems going into overdrive that their is no real hope. They will be beyond a normal ventilator and on a ECMO

 

[thomas998]

I still haven't found any proof anywhere that "86% are asymptomatic carriers"????

Here was one of the normal ones, followed by a link to the actual report behind the 86% number that's been tossed around.
Clearly not truly asymptomatic in a true sense of the term, but not so symptomatic that they bothered to seek any treatment.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

AAAS

science.sciencemag.org

 

[No Name]

Wow didn’t expect one of my favorite actresses to turn into Thanos.

 

[monykalyn]

Here was one of the normal ones, followed by a link to the actual report behind the 86% number that's been tossed around.
Clearly not truly asymptomatic in a true sense of the term, but not so symptomatic that they bothered to seek any treatment.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

AAAS

science.sciencemag.org

thanks for that.
If there’s a million cases worldwide with most too mild to seek treatment AND we are not testing if mild - this cats been out of the bag a looonngg time already & the percentage of critical vs mild is also skewed as is the mortality rate. This wouldn’t even be a particularly scary pandemic either. Yes some hospital systems will get overwhelmed - as is the case and chance in any particularly virulent season-but most will handle it fine. We’ve had a rather nasty flu season already too.

 

[thecouch]

We’ve had a rather nasty flu season already too.

Or has coronavirus been around for a while

 

[Yodascousin]

Just tried to reschedule our visit from the uk in April was told they can’t do that yet due to flights

 

[Yodascousin]

April's not happening.

I know I’m due to fly in April but was told I can’t reschedule my trip due to flights

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

I've got early May at Legoland at the new Pirate Hotel and late May at Coronado. I've pretty much written those off. But haven't cancelled quite yet.

 

[Rimmit]

It is a problem, but it can also be mitigated somewhat by deciding how long to treat the patient as a viable survivor and when to move them out of ICU and accept that they are not going to recover. From what has been described by doctor of the ones that have died, their lungs are so completely trashed by the immune systems going into overdrive that their is no real hope. They will be beyond a normal ventilator and on a ECMO

The question is at what point do you make that decision. Given this is a completely novel virus that we have never encountered, we have no idea the clinical course. We can read journal articles all we want and read case reports, but a lot of medicine is still an art. In order for us to establish end of life guidelines as to when we have the fun job of telling family members “Sorry, we just have to discontinue the vent and pull the plug. XXX has happened and labs show XXX and his chance of recovery is XXX. We need the vent for someone else.” we are going to have to experience the disease treat the disease for a bit. Under normal circumstances, as clinicians we have a lot leeway and wait for family to come around to that decision with some nudging. Based on conditions coming up, this could be more of a wartime like decision where the family sadly does not get much input when to draw that line.

ECMO is a last ditch effort and most patients that hit ECMO never get off. In my population the diagnosis makes a big difference in survival rates as to if they get off ECMO, but in general ECMO tends to be the flip of a coin in you get off. I have not seen ECMO survival rates yet in any papers I have read.

Furthermore, ECMO is incredibly complex and the ECMO circuits are very rare. I trained in a large academic hospital. We only had 5 ECMO circuits in the hospital and could only run 4 at the same time as you needed one for backup in the event of malfunction. Most hospitals don’t even have ECMO circuits. ECMO circuits take a minimum 2 nurses to run. To get a patient onto ECMO, it requires a surgeon to insert the canulas. Once on ECMO there is a cumulative daily risk for an endless number of comorbidities due to the anticoagulation required for ECMO. Biggest of which is a head bleed or clot in the circuit being thrown to the head causing a stroke. ECMO is not fun, and in all honesty outcomes aren’t great if you get to that point. And most wouldn’t even be candidates for that therapy due to comorbidities. If you hit ECMO, it’s nearly a lost cause. Given how bad the situation may get, ECMO may not even be performed as you may not have an available surgeon as they maybe quarantined or sick themselves.

“When do you have to pull the plug as we are out of Vents?” That is the question they are making in Italy. This was a questioned posed in training in ethics classes that would get debated, and sadly we now may have to make that decision.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

I know I’m due to fly in April but was told I can’t reschedule my trip due to flights

You've also got the travel restrictions to worry about.

 

[DKampy]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#italian-media I like this site better as it gives % mild/severe cases and active cases.

I like that site too...but I am wondering the accuracy of it....here in Wisconsin they reported a 2nd recovery 3 or 4 days ago...that site is still showing 1 recovery for Wisconsin