Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

FP+, if it were to return in its prior form, makes Park Pass obsolete outside of maybe Christmas week or the initial opening for major new attractions.

If you have FastPasses for Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, Peter Pan's Flight, and Space Mountain, Disney doesn't get any additional information by forcing you to ALSO have a Park Pass for the Magic Kingdom.

Park Pass only matters if 1) parks are expected to hit capacity, whether that means COVID restrictions or what would have normally been phase closing, or 2) FastPass 3.0 looks significantly different from FastPass+.

True, but it does keep the hopping restricted which can be an operational and staffing benefit. You know how many people will be in each park from rope drop until the afternoon on park reservations. It’s also possible that a percent of guests were not booking FP reservations in advance of arriving at the parks or using it at all.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Agreed. Park hopping can happen (FP reservations are for, say, 9:30 - 12:30 and then you hop to another park), but that is probably a minority of customers.

It's a minority of customers and it happens in a predictable pattern, i.e. people disproportionately park hop FROM Animal Kingdom and TO Epcot.

It’s also possible that a percent of guests were not booking FP reservations in advance of arriving at the parks or using it at all.

That same percent of guests aren't going to book Park Pass in advance of arriving at the parks either. The only reason guests are 100% doing it now is because the parks are capacity-limited so they have to. Also, Disney won't even sell you a same day ticket if the parks are full, so the non-planners have been locked out for the entirety of COVID.

If I'm traveling during a week when there's 0% chance of the parks "selling out" (i.e. probably 360 days a year), I'm not going to make a Park Pass until same-day. Disney used to get 60 days of data on me and now they're getting zero.

 

[Patcheslee]

It's a minority of customers and it happens in a predictable pattern, i.e. people disproportionately park hop FROM Animal Kingdom and TO Epcot.


That same percent of guests aren't going to book Park Pass in advance of arriving at the parks either. The only reason guests are 100% doing it now is because the parks are capacity-limited so they have to.

If I'm traveling during a week when there's 0% chance of the parks "selling out" (i.e. probably 360 days a year), I'm not going to make a Park Pass until same-day.

Epcot has the most variety in food. I'd probably eat there everyday if time allowed lol

 

[mickeymiss]

I was disappointed that they didn't have any perks for staying on the resort last summer. I'm shocked that they still don't although they have teased it. I was very impressed with how Disney handled safety though. I felt safer there than most places where I live. It was truly amazing but I really think letting resort guests in early could have worked out and probably even lessened the surge of people entering at the same time.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's a minority of customers and it happens in a predictable pattern, i.e. people disproportionately park hop FROM Animal Kingdom and TO Epcot.


That same percent of guests aren't going to book Park Pass in advance of arriving at the parks either. The only reason guests are 100% doing it now is because the parks are capacity-limited so they have to. Also, Disney won't even sell you a same day ticket if the parks are full, so the non-planners have been locked out for the entirety of COVID.

If I'm traveling during a week when there's 0% chance of the parks "selling out" (i.e. probably 360 days a year), I'm not going to make a Park Pass until same-day. Disney used to get 60 days of data on me and now they're getting zero.

True. The park passes are selling out well in advance now, including weeks in October and November already but I assume as capacity is fully expanded that’s not going to be the case. I would still think the vast majority of hotel guests would book a park pass reservation in advance just in case. It is easy enough to change and coats nothing.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Speaking of cruises:

US cruises could restart soon with 'passenger voyages by mid-July,' CDC says

Cruising could restart in mid-summer in American waters, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a letter to the cruise industry.

www.usatoday.com

No deal for Disney. Too many kids under 16, so only allowing 5% of your passengers to be unvaccinated is unreasonable. The CDC makes these absurd rules while sitting on an application to allow kids 12+ to get the Pfizer vaccine. What’s the deal?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I would still think the vast majority of hotel guests would book a park pass reservation in advance just in case. It is easy enough to change and coats nothing.

There are different types of guests though.

The biggest group are probably people who pre-planned FPs and would continue to pre-plan Park Pass.

There are other people who hated the mandatory pre-planning and missed the spontaneity of waking up in the morning and picking which park to go to that day. We read that here all the time. Those people will only pre-plan if forced to, so Disney is going to lose their data.

So some people are going to pre-plan in either scenario. Others are going to stop planning. I can't imagine there's a type of guest who *didn't* pre-plan their FastPasses but *will* pre-plan a park pass. So I see it as a net data loss.

 

[GoofGoof]

There are different types of guests though.

The biggest group are probably people who pre-planned FPs and would continue to pre-plan Park Pass.

There are other people who hated the mandatory pre-planning and missed the spontaneity of waking up in the morning and picking which park to go to that day. We read that here all the time. Those people will only pre-plan if forced to, so Disney is going to lose their data.

So some people are going to pre-plan in either scenario. Others are going to start planning. I can't imagine there's a type of guest who *didn't* pre-plan their FastPasses but *will* pre-plan a park pass. So I see it as a net data loss.

I could see some people maybe booking DHS for every day of their visit to have the option and then switching the other days since that’s the one park with potential to sell out due to demand and also small footprint.

 

[monothingie]

No deal for Disney. Too many kids under 16, so only allowing 5% of your passengers to be unvaccinated is unreasonable. The CDC makes these absurd rules while sitting on an application to allow kids 12+ to get the Pfizer vaccine. What’s the deal?

• Ships can bypass the required simulated test voyages carrying volunteers and jump to sailings with paying passengers if 98% of crew and 95% of passengers are fully vaccinated.
• CDC will review and respond to applications from cruise lines for simulated voyages within 5 days, a review previously expected to take 60 days.

I agree that the rules are absurd, but I think it was referring to simulated cruises only. If they don't have the 98% 95% vaccination rate they still can sail but have go through the simulated cruise process, albeit at a much quicker review process.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I agree that hospitalizations and deaths are more important, but there have been a lot of analyses over the past year showing that those lag 2-3 week behind cases... and that the trends match well. So cases are a pretty good indicator of where we are and where hospitalizations will be in a couple weeks.

Because there will be people who get sick and don't know it so don't get tested, but if that percentage stays roughly the same over time (and it has seemed to) then the overall trendline of cases is still quite relevant.

We will agree to disagree, I don’t care about lag, hospitalizations and deaths over time is the true measurement of where we are at on this in my mind.

 

[ToTBellHop]

• Ships can bypass the required simulated test voyages carrying volunteers and jump to sailings with paying passengers if 98% of crew and 95% of passengers are fully vaccinated.
• CDC will review and respond to applications from cruise lines for simulated voyages within 5 days, a review previously expected to take 60 days.

I agree that the rules are absurd, but I think it was referring to simulated cruises only. If they don't have the 98% 95% vaccination rate they still can sail but have go through the simulated cruise process, albeit at a much quicker review process.

I’ll believe that when I actually see it, honestly. They’ve been dragging their feet.

 

[monothingie]

I’ll believe that when I actually see it, honestly. They’ve been dragging their feet.

I have no expectation for ANYTHING starting up in earnest before 2022. Honestly I just wish DCL would cancel my 10/4 cruise so that I can firm up alternate plans.

 

[mickeymiss]

Covid restrictions won’t be the reason any of that does or doesn’t happen.

The ongoing construction and repairs at Fantasmic makes any near return hard... but suppose August is possible if they finish the repair work soon.

FP isn’t coming back... almost nothing to do with Covid. They can’t “turn it on” unless they dump the park pass system, and they are on the record as liking the park pass system. Therefore, a whole new FP system will need to be designed.

Dining will expand significantly. Maybe not buffets. But the limiting factor will be finding enough staff. Patina is having to offer $300-$500 bonuses to find line cooks and bussers.

As to masks... I’d agree. Outdoor masks gone by June or July. Indoor masks... best case scenario, gone by June or July, worst case, gone by October.

You think they'd get rid of indoor and outdoor masks at the same time? Anything is possible obviously. It's interesting to hear different thoughts on all of this. I didn't know they were on the record as liking the park pass system either. I wonder when the temp checks are going to be lifted. I've seen no mention of it.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I have no expectation for ANYTHING starting up in earnest before 2022. Honestly I just wish DCL would cancel my 10/4 cruise so that I can firm up alternate plans.

How long of a cruise? I could PERHAPS foresee 3- and 4-night cruises by fall. If they get vaccines for 12+ and mandate that everyone 12+ be vaccinated while allowing 5% of passengers to be under 12, they could get one ship going. I doubt we will see 7-nighters for awhile.

We moved our cruise to next summer. I don’t need the stress. We will just go to WDW in October for the 50th when I now assume we won’t have to wear masks outdoors. Nice.

 

[pixie225]

You think they'd get rid of indoor and outdoor masks at the same time? Anything is possible obviously. It's interesting to hear different thoughts on all of this. I didn't know they were on the record as liking the park pass system either. I wonder when the temp checks are going to be lifted. I've seen no mention of it.

I do not think they will get rid of indoor and outdoor mask wear at the same time. From everything I've read/heard they know covid spreads more readily in enclosed spaces than out in the fresh air. As they just eased the mask guidelines for outdoors, I think it will be a while until they ease indoor mask wear.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I could see some people maybe booking DHS for every day of their visit to have the option and then switching the other days since that’s the one park with potential to sell out due to demand and also small footprint.

I think that's more "new hotness" than anything. It will be replaced by Epcot once Rat opens. Did DHS ever hit phase closing prior to COVID?

 

[monothingie]

How long of a cruise? I could PERHAPS foresee 3- and 4-night cruises by fall. If they get vaccines for 12+ and mandate that everyone 12+ be vaccinated while allowing 5% of passengers to be under 12, they could get one ship going. I doubt we will see 7-nighters for awhile.

We moved our cruise to next summer. I don’t need the stress.

4 Night Caribbean. Which could be doable, but I just don't see the motivation within DCL to return to operations as opposed to the larger cruise lines. Honestly I just don't like the 2 month cancelation window they've been operating in for some of their operations.

 

[sullyinMT]

No deal for Disney. Too many kids under 16, so only allowing 5% of your passengers to be unvaccinated is unreasonable. The CDC makes these absurd rules while sitting on an application to allow kids 12+ to get the Pfizer vaccine. What’s the deal?

True. Though, it could be foretelling of the FDA’s internal conversations. I don’t know if they’re required to holds the same hearings for amending a current EUA as the initial authorization, but we’re going on three weeks from the submitted request.

We should be hearing something soon on adolescents, I think. Especially with vaccination rates stalling nationally.

While a no-go for Disney, even if 12+ is added, I still find the poetic irony in this slapping these stupid passport bans in the face absolutely beautiful. And we’re a huge cruise fan family.

 

[Touchdown]

Until Rise no longer requires boarding groups DHS will be the first park to sell out park passes. You can’t hop and experience Rise.

 

[ToTBellHop]

True. Though, it could be foretelling of the FDA’s internal conversations. I don’t know if they’re required to holds the same hearings for amending a current EUA as the initial authorization, but we’re going on three weeks from the submitted request.

We should be hearing something soon on adolescents, I think. Especially with vaccination rates stalling nationally.

While a no-go for Disney, even if 12+ is added, I still find the poetic irony in this slapping these stupid passport bans in the face absolutely beautiful. And we’re a huge cruise fan family.

The Governor wants the CDC to allow cruise lines to sail but doesn’t want cruise lines to be able to require what they want to require for sailing to resume.

Ugh.

I thought he was pro-business?