Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

So US will lift masks and social distancing for good soon this year? As other parts of world have to wait another few years?

I do see US lifting restrictions sooner than many other countries. It’s really a state and local decision. So we are already seeing those restrictions being lifted in many places.

Whether it will be gone “soon”..

We really don’t know. There are many unknowns. Restrictions could be gone in 6 weeks... could be 6 more months. Could be not until kids get vaccinated, in another 9 months or so.

 

[havoc315]

Some notes about the NYC variant... very much we don’t know.



ICU admissions are actually rising in NYC, they haven’t yet started sifting through the data regarding whether it includes breakthrough infections.

 

[seascape]

The CDC should allow cruise lines to sale to private islands and just at sea, provided all travelers and crew members have been vaccinated. For the US Government to keep businesses closed when their own experts and scientists say its safe if everyone has been vaccinated is just wrong. Also, all domestic travel restrictions should be removed for all those vaccinated. As for international travel, restrictions should continue for all, including those vaccinated until the countries visited are below a certain number of cases per 100,000.

 

[danlb_2000]

The very most that masks and social distancing have done is reduce the rate of spread.
Those things are good things, if they did indeed keep this virus from compounding at a rate beyond which our healthcare systems could handle.
But did they actually prevent this pandemic from running its course?
It doesn't seem as though they did.
Honestly, do people really believe that when groups of people are near each other and they are wearing ill fitting surgical masks, that the air they inhale and exhale isn't going in and around all those gaps in the seal of the masks?
And social distancing, the air we inhale and exhale doesn't just drop off and away at six feet, or now three feet.
Sometimes you're walking behind someone, or riding in a WDW vehicle directly behind someone, or you're downwind from people.
And so many other variables... Air and the viral particles it may carry doesn't flow or not flow under a set of rigid criteria.
Air is a fluid.

The air doesn't but the large respiratory droplets do. Almost nothing we go can prevent infection, but it can do a lot to reduce it.

As for the pandemic "running it's course", without vaccines that would mean huge numbers of people getting infected, huge numbers of dead, and likely the rise of new variants that would keep the cycle going for years.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 29 new reported deaths, along with 3 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[Patcheslee]

It’s a math exercise. Less than a third of Americans even have a passport. In 2019 less than 15% of Americans actually traveled overseas. On the flip side the vast majority of people ate in a restaurant or did some sort of activity that is in some way limited by the requirement to wear masks and distance. So the discontent will come from less than 15% of the population who can’t freely travel overseas and return with no restrictions. If the answer is to require testing or a vaccine they won’t be prevented from going, just have an extra step. Keeping masks and distancing for years means places like restaurants and bars have to limit their capacity indefinitely, WDW can‘t return to normal operations, concerts, sporting events, weddings, graduations are all impacted for years to come. I just don’t see people accepting that so less than 15% of the population can fly overseas without any requirements.

We haven't done international travel yet due to DD12 not being 16 yet. Just an agreement made with her dad. One of the main things that I've always looked into when we discuss going anywhere international what additional vaccinations we may need. That requirement wouldn't have stopped us in the past, and don't expect it to stop us in the future.
Now convincing my husband to go on a cruise is another story. Had him talked into a 3-4 day one if we had a balcony before covid hit. Now he has too many questions about what the policy would be for a positive case on board, and leary about if it would turn into weeks of quarantine in a tiny cabin like last year reports. The cruise industry will have to be very transparent and have positive reports before that opinion will change.

 

[havoc315]

The air doesn't but the large respiratory droplets do. Almost nothing we go can prevent infection, but it can do a lot to reduce it.

As for the pandemic "running it's course", without vaccines that would mean huge numbers of people getting infected, huge numbers of dead, and likely the rise of new variants that would keep the cycle going for years.

Small droplets as well.

It takes a concentration of viral particles to cause the infection.
If you inhale a single coronavirus particle, you’re not likely to actually get infected.

So yes... some viral particles will get through a mask.. but a high percentage will be blocked. And yes, they can spread more than 6 feet— but the further they spread, the more diffuse.
It’s like a garden sprinkler — if you stand right on top of it, you’ll get soaked. If you stand 20 feet away, you’ll just get a few drops. And those few drops likely aren’t concentrated enough to actually cause an infection.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[GoofGoof]

Some notes about the NYC variant... very much we don’t know.



ICU admissions are actually rising in NYC, they haven’t yet started sifting through the data regarding whether it includes breakthrough infections.

On reinfection and infection after vaccination:

Gottlieb said the CDC should encourage doctors to come forward and report potential cases of patients who had previously had COVID-19 becoming infected yet again.

"We don't know that's happening. But anecdotally, some doctors are reporting that now and that could potentially explain why you're seeing an upsurge in cases," he said. "It could just be that, you know, 1.526 and B.1.1.7 is becoming more prevalent and that's responsible in and of itself. But you want to make sure that it's not reinfecting people."

To be clear, there’s no actual data or evidence suggesting that there is an issue with reinfection or with infection after vaccination. We have anecdotal stories, but everyone already knows it’s possible to be infected after vaccination and/or reinfected after natural infection. Real evidence would include statistics around how common it is. What are the real numbers? It’s very important to continue to study this, but if you just went by the headlines and Tweets you are lead to believe they have discovered a big problem.


https://news.yahoo.com/gottlieb-warns-york-virus-variant-171713340.html

 

[Flugell]

Perhaps this is a biased opinion from the U.K. but how can the USA be back to “normal” whilst limiting international travel into or out of the country? Yes, life may not require mitigation measures but even at WDW the last figures I could find said that 18% of visitors were from overseas so that would impact on attendance and profit. Also 13. 6 million international tourists visited New York in 2018 spending more money and staying longer than domestic visitors. Again this will impact negatively on hotels, shops, Broadway etc.
In 2019 over 80 million international travellers visited the USA. That’s more than the entire population of the U.K. and nearly four times the population of Florida. So yes, maybe more things will be open, yes, masks may no longer be required, yes social distancing may be a distant memory, yes, large gatherings will once again be allowed but “normal?” Not even close!
Until the WORLD Pandemic is under control true normality will be impossible and that is what we should all be working towards. I totally understand the desire to return to a less restricted life both in the USA and the U.K. but we ignore the rest of the world at our peril.
Maybe I’m so worried that you will consider it is “Normal” without international visitors because I’m so desperate to visit Florida and WDW again before we are too old to undertake the long flight. I think we have 2-3 years left realistically so............

 

[havoc315]

On reinfection and infection after vaccination:

Gottlieb said the CDC should encourage doctors to come forward and report potential cases of patients who had previously had COVID-19 becoming infected yet again.

"We don't know that's happening. But anecdotally, some doctors are reporting that now and that could potentially explain why you're seeing an upsurge in cases," he said. "It could just be that, you know, 1.526 and B.1.1.7 is becoming more prevalent and that's responsible in and of itself. But you want to make sure that it's not reinfecting people."

To be clear, there’s no actual data or evidence suggesting that there is an issue with reinfection or with infection after vaccination. We have anecdotal stories, but everyone already knows it’s possible to be infected after vaccination and/or reinfected after natural infection. Real evidence would include statistics around how common it is. What are the real numbers? It’s very important to continue to study this, but if you just went by the headlines and Tweets you are lead to believe they have discovered a big problem.


https://news.yahoo.com/gottlieb-warns-york-virus-variant-171713340.html

Correct, it’s a huge unknown. I work with multiple hospitals in the region. ICU admissions are rising and they haven’t yet provided data to the state or CDC about incidence of reinfection and vaccine breakthrough. In many cases it’s unclear — so few people have reached “full vaccination” — 3 weeks since completing second dose.

I’d expect real data and clarity on the issue over the next 4-8 weeks. I doubt we will find that the vaccines are ineffective, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see reduced efficacy.
Recent study has shown the AZ vaccine is mostly ineffective against the SA variant, which is similar to the NYC variant.
Keeping fingers crossed that JNJ, Pfizer and Moderna perform better.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2102214

 

[DisneyFan32]

Correct, it’s a huge unknown. I work with multiple hospitals in the region. ICU admissions are rising and they haven’t yet provided data to the state or CDC about incidence of reinfection and vaccine breakthrough. In many cases it’s unclear — so few people have reached “full vaccination” — 3 weeks since completing second dose.

I’d expect real data and clarity on the issue over the next 4-8 weeks. I doubt we will find that the vaccines are ineffective, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see reduced efficacy.
Recent study has shown the AZ vaccine is mostly ineffective against the SA variant, which is similar to the NYC variant.
Keeping fingers crossed that JNJ, Pfizer and Moderna perform better.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2102214

So vaccines is still powerful to stop any variants like Moderna, Pfizer and J&J?

 

[GoofGoof]

Perhaps this is a biased opinion from the U.K. but how can the USA be back to “normal” whilst limiting international travel into or out of the country? Yes, life may not require mitigation measures but even at WDW the last figures I could find said that 18% of visitors were from overseas so that would impact on attendance and profit. Also 13. 6 million international tourists visited New York in 2018 spending more money and staying longer than domestic visitors. Again this will impact negatively on hotels, shops, Broadway etc.
In 2019 over 80 million international travellers visited the USA. That’s more than the entire population of the U.K. and nearly four times the population of Florida. So yes, maybe more things will be open, yes, masks may no longer be required, yes social distancing may be a distant memory, yes, large gatherings will once again be allowed but “normal?” Not even close!
Until the WORLD Pandemic is under control true normality will be impossible and that is what we should all be working towards. I totally understand the desire to return to a less restricted life both in the USA and the U.K. but we ignore the rest of the world at our peril.
Maybe I’m so worried that you will consider it is “Normal” without international visitors because I’m so desperate to visit Florida and WDW again before we are too old to undertake the long flight. I think we have 2-3 years left realistically so............

There are levels of normal. I don’t think anyone thinks we will be back to full normal with nothing different any time soon. As I posted earlier, less than 15% of the American population traveled over seas in 2019 so for 85% of people not having access to international travel isn’t going to change their perception of getting back to normal. I think for most people a few items that represent major stepping stones towards “normal” would be reopening of all schools to full physical learning, relaxing of social distancing including large group venues, relaxing of mask rules in retail, theme parks, places of worship, workplaces, etc. and the reopening at full capacity of all businesses. I think domestic travel is part of the norm, but international is less important to most people. Similar to how restaurants being open at full capacity including bar seating is more important to most people for the perception of a return to normal than if self serve buffets are back. Some things won’t be back to normal for a lot longer than others.

On the business side and particularly tourism it works both ways. Large urban centers like NYC and tourist areas like Orlando rely on international travelers for business so there will be a drop off in customers. Depending on the activity there is going to be an offset though as more Americans can‘t travel internationally and so do more traveling domestically. For a beach resort in FL they lose the International guests but gain some Americans who would have gone to Cancun or the Caribbean instead. I think overall it’s probably still a negative for tourism in the US and for WDW it’s definitely a negative.

 

[ABQ]

Can someone tell Michigan that whatever it is they are doing, they should try the exact opposite, it's not working.

 

[GoofGoof]

So vaccines is still powerful to stop any variants like Moderna, Pfizer and J&J?

Yes. There is no evidence from anyone anywhere that the 3 vaccines which are approved in the United States don‘t stop all known variants.

 

[havoc315]

So vaccines is still powerful to stop any variants like Moderna, Pfizer and J&J?

unknown. We hope so.

 

[LittleBuford]

Yes. There is no evidence from anyone anywhere that the 3 vaccines which are approved in the United States don‘t stop all known variants.

Some of the data concerning the South African variant suggests that the vaccines may be less effective against it:

COVID-19 Vaccines

Vaccines are seen as one of the best ways to stop COVID-19. Learn more about the types of vaccines, including the newly approved Novavax.

www.webmd.com

And a link to the study itself:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03398-2_reference.pdf

 

[GoofGoof]

Some of the data concerning the South African variant suggests that the vaccines may be less effective against it:

COVID-19 Vaccines

Vaccines are seen as one of the best ways to stop COVID-19. Learn more about the types of vaccines, including the newly approved Novavax.

www.webmd.com

And a link to the study itself:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03398-2_reference.pdf

Again, there’s no evidence from anyone anywhere that the 3 approved vaccines in the US don‘t stop all known variants. The only vaccine that had failed the efficacy test vs a variant was the AstraZenneca vaccine in S Africa. There is also no evidence anywhere that any of the variants has any impact on the approved vaccine’s protection from severe illness and death. JnJ had lower efficacy in S Africa than in the US during their trial but it still provided 100% protection from hospitalization and death there.

 

[LittleBuford]

Again, there’s no evidence from anyone anywhere that the 3 approved vaccines in the US don‘t stop all known variants. The only vaccine that had failed the efficacy test vs a variant was the AstraZenneca vaccine in S Africa. There is also no evidence anywhere that any of the variants has any impact on the approved vaccine’s protection from severe illness and death. JnJ had lower efficacy in S Africa than in the US during their trial but it still provided 100% protection from hospitalization and death there.

With respect, I posted a link to a peer-reviewed study conducted by scientists with far more expertise in this area than either of us. I’m simply reporting their findings, not putting my spin on them:

“As for the ramifications of our findings for the protective efficacy of current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, the neutralizing activity of vaccine sera against B.1.1.7 is largely intact and no adverse impact on current vaccines is expected (Fig. 4c), consistent with conclusions being reached by others. On the other hand, the loss of 10.3-12.4 fold in activity against B.1.351 is larger than results being reported using mutant pseudoviruses. Taken together, the overall findings are worrisome, particularly in light of recent reports that both Novavax and Johnson & Johnson vaccines showed a substantial drop in efficacy in South Africa.”

 

[GoofGoof]

With respect, I posted a link to a peer-reviewed study conducted by scientists with far more expertise in this area than either of us. I’m simply reporting their findings, not putting my spin on them:

“As for the ramifications of our findings for the protective efficacy of current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, the neutralizing activity of vaccine sera against B.1.1.7 is largely intact and no adverse impact on current vaccines is expected (Fig. 4c), consistent with conclusions being reached by others. On the other hand, the loss of 10.3-12.4 fold in activity against B.1.351 is larger than results being reported using mutant pseudoviruses. Taken together, the overall findings are worrisome, particularly in light of recent reports that both Novavax and Johnson & Johnson vaccines showed a substantial drop in efficacy in South Africa.”

I’m not sure what I’m missing. A drop in efficacy doesn’t mean the vaccines don’t work. JnJ had lower efficacy in South Africa than it did in the US but the efficacy was still high enough to gain approval. It was also still 100% effective at preventing hospitalization and death. There is no study anywhere that shows Pfizer or Moderna is not effective vs the S African variant. It’s not my spin, the studies don’t exist.