Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[RobWDW1971]

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Thats what you don’t understand. The country would not just move on. The reason that having 500k die from cancer or 66k from drunk driving or whatever current disease you pick is an acceptable loss is because we know within a reasonable margin of error how many we have every year. For that reason we are prepared. We know how many ventilators we need. We know about how many nurses we need staffed.

The census of my ICU is reasonably stable. There are peaks and troughs and times when I can run out of beds for a period of time, But for the most part we have the equipment to handle the situations we are presented with 95 percent of the time. I know with a small margin of error how many admissions a year I will get to my ICU.

This is a brand new virus, of which about 20 percent require admission and around 10-8 percent become critically ill. The length of stay of these patients appears to be quite prolonged and can easily be 10-14 days at minimum. Longer if they end up on the vent in an ICU. Let’s say you just get 10 patients. They lock down 10 beds from 10-14 days. That is 100-140 patient days. A hospital can only absorb so much. This then trickles down to interruption of regular healthcare. Our hospital has already stopped elective procedures come Wed. In anticipation of the potential need to use the ORs for possible ICU use. You can run out of EMS staff as they are to busy transporting patients. They may not be able to respond to a car wreck or an emergency call as they are out on transport. Your regular PMD may not be available because he has been drafted to manage Covid patients because to many of the other doctors have been quarantined and are now sick.

Eventually if this disease becomes endemic there will be some innate immunity in the community. It will eventually become like the measles, chicken pox, HIV, TB, car wrecks, etc. In that we will be able to predict how many a year die and also adjust our hospital capacities accordingly. The issue is we don’t know what is going to happen, and with something like this where NO ONE has immunity it will crush our healthcare system if we don’t slow it down. The moment it overwhelms the system all aspects of life will be affected. Not just the old and dying.

Don't disagree with any of that - the disease will overwhelm our medical facilities in the short term and more than likely cause every issue you raise.

That being said, what is our appetite for both economic devastation and panic to slightly or
even moderately improve those situations?

Is it worth shutting down society, causing panic so that grocery stores are overwhelmed, and people are fighting over toilet paper? For the market to lose trillions of value, for hundreds of thousands if not millions to lose their jobs and financial stability?

Is all of that worth it so that hospitals are not temporarily overwhelmed and there isn't some collateral loss of lives due to lack of care?

Again, all "abundance of caution" has a price. We should be openly and clearly debating that price and what we are getting for it.

 

[Quinnmac000]

As someone currently living in Korea, there are huge differences in the US population and the Korean population.

The main spread here was by church groups and those who interacted with members of those groups. Outside of those groups, everyone here is wearing masks when they go out and talk to people, they all carry hand sanitizer, they mostly only go out when needed. Everyone is still working, most restaurants are still open, and entertainment is open but no one really is going to the movies etc.

Add in the rapid testing, overly robust hour by hour breakdowns of where victims traveled to that is released publicly followed by teams looking at CCTV footage to identify people who may be at risk, and the test only costing $200 dollars if you just want it and if you are actually at risk its free plus full treatment paid for as well as compensation for your time in the hospital away from work.

US, the test is way more expensive based on reports already and those people who need treatment may not have money.

So stop using Korea as an idea for how it will be in the US. The US isn't Korea because 1. People in the US don't follow the rules as much as Koreans nor do they take it seriously in the beginning like Koreans did.

Oh and one thing every place that at least I went to did to include hotels, restaurants, and more were they took screenings of all the patrons, had their phone numbers and took people's temperature upon entry.

 

[Squishy]

What do you guys think of this? I had a fever for a whole week mid-Jan and horrible sore throat...

 

[LittleBuford]

I know. I’m just frustrated that more people aren’t asking for more data. We’re just too much of a group of followers these days... like we’ve forgotten how to think for ourselves. I’m talking about society in general- Proof being this strange toilet paper obsession.

You’re conflating things and undermining the very point you’re trying to make. Experts are not telling people to buy toilet paper. Indeed, if people listened to expert advice, they wouldn’t be panic-buying at all.

 

[LittleBuford]

What's missing in this hysteria and spiraling reaction is that analysis.

From my perspective, the “hysteria” (I dislike the word for its misogynistic roots) and spiralling reaction are coming from the denialists, not from those who understand the importance of acting in accordance with expert advice.

 

[Giss Neric]

As someone currently living in Korea, there are huge differences in the US population and the Korean population.

The main spread here was by church groups and those who interacted with members of those groups. Outside of those groups, everyone here is wearing masks when they go out and talk to people, they all carry hand sanitizer, they mostly only go out when needed. Everyone is still working, most restaurants are still open, and entertainment is open but no one really is going to the movies etc.

Add in the rapid testing, overly robust hour by hour breakdowns of where victims traveled to that is released publicly followed by teams looking at CCTV footage to identify people who may be at risk, and the test only costing $200 dollars if you just want it and if you are actually at risk its free plus full treatment paid for as well as compensation for your time in the hospital away from work.

US, the test is way more expensive based on reports already and those people who need treatment may not have money.

So stop using Korea as an idea for how it will be in the US. The US isn't Korea because 1. People in the US don't follow the rules as much as Koreans nor do they take it seriously in the beginning like Koreans did.

Oh and one thing every place that at least I went to did to include hotels, restaurants, and more were they took screenings of all the patrons, had their phone numbers and took people's temperature upon entry.

To sum it up, cultural differences.

 

[tallica]

What do you guys think of this? I had a fever for a whole week mid-Jan and horrible sore throat...

Honestly I think there is a good chance I had it in early Feb, got it from a co-worker who had recently flown and came back to work sick. We shared the same POS for a whole shift.two days later I was sick with a dry cough scratchy throat and a fever. Highest fever that I have had in decades. Within a week three other coworkers had experienced the same.

 

[SoFloMagic]

Both diseases have different symptoms, notably shortness of breath with Coronavirus. However, I have questioned if something like this is possible. Everyone in my household was sick with suspected flu over Christmas (not fun!) and then about a month and 1/2 later, I got the most mild cold of my life which lasted maybe 3 days. It was really weird.

In mid January I got a nasty "flu" with fever, dry cough that lasted 3 weeks, and wheezing. Very distinctive cough.
Went to epcot when I was feeling better and heard a lot of that same cough.
Makes me wonder.

 

[Tom Morrow]

If you only get the mild symptoms of COVID-19 then you would have never known it was anything different than a common cold

 

[Lilofan]

West Virginia has 0 positive. They tested 41 people. That’s the only state right now with 0 cases.

You seem to want someone to provide you some facts that will support your theory. Just because you (someone on a Disney forum) don’t have that information doesn’t mean it exists and they are hiding it from you for some reason. You dismiss what the government is saying and what experts say and what independent doctors say because maybe they aren’t experts on this virus but you somehow assume you are. I know nothing myself. I had high school biology that’s the extent of my medical knowledge. I rely on people who specialize in these things. When every doctor, epidemiologist and expert is basically saying the same thing I have a hard time believing they are either all wrong or colluding together. I will pose to you the same question as the other guy, why are there no reputable sources saying this is all an overreaction? Why aren’t doctors who work in the hospitals disputing the claims of the shortage of ICU beds or ventilators. If that was exaggerated someone would be saying it. I’m perfectly willing to listen to an alternate opinion. Nobody outside of a handful of people here seem to think that way.

I saw Governor Cuomo of NY voiced out his concerns on CNN last night. In NYC, there are 53K hospital beds, 600 ICU beds. NYC has a population of 8 million people.

 

[Tom Morrow]

I took a cruise through WDW tonight around 9:30 PM. Very eerie. Roads were so empty and they're only going to get more empty. A few things I noted:

- No signage saying the parks are closed. Perhaps it isn't necessary with how known it is.
- Exit roads to parking lot toll plazas are not blocked off and I wonder if they eventually will be.
- Exterior and night lighting was still on for everything I could see except for Galaxy's Edge, which was dark.
- Disney is storing the bus fleet in the MK parking lot.

 

[Lilofan]

There is a petition by Colorado residents to their governor to suspend rent and mortgage payments for the next 2 months. This idea could be catching on in the immediate future when people experience layoffs and/or financial hardship.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Not saying it will, but it could. They tried the "because they are the most populated country" approach, but it still operates at a loss and even when the product is catered to government approval it often fails (Mulan and parks were being hated on and not doing well before the virus)
Affording movies is a different market than affording a theme park. Movies can still succeed. If you think the luxory of a theme park is for the well to do here, the gap is bigger in China.

The owning partnerships lose money. Disney makes money from licensing and operating fees.

If you only get the mild symptoms of COVID-19 then you would have never known it was anything different than a common cold

Maybe but not likely. Mild means you didn’t require hospitalization. Getting pneumonia is considered mild

 

[TrojanUSC]

There is a petition by Colorado residents to their governor to suspend rent and mortgage payments for the next 2 months. This idea could be catching on in the immediate future when people experience layoffs and/or financial hardship.

This makes sense. In California, most municipalities are preventing evictions and giving tenants with back-due rent 6 months, from the "end of the emergency," to pay it.

 

[esskay]

Not over here mate. Toilet Paper gone on Amazon till April 13th. Same with food.

Yea no toilet paper or main food items show up on amazon uk for me at all now, but lots off odd bits are still on there (certainly more than in the supermarkets at the mo)

 

[esskay]

I took a cruise through WDW tonight around 9:30 PM. Very eerie. Roads were so empty and they're only going to get more empty. A few things I noted:

- No signage saying the parks are closed. Perhaps it isn't necessary with how known it is.
- Exit roads to parking lot toll plazas are not blocked off and I wonder if they eventually will be.
- Exterior and night lighting was still on for everything I could see except for Galaxy's Edge, which was dark.
- Disney is storing the bus fleet in the MK parking lot.

Cast will still be in the parks for at least the next week I'd have thought. Even if its just in a limited capacity. I'm assuming Epcot construction will continue in some form for a week or so as well.

 

[seascape]

If one-third of the US population gets infected, and the mortality rate remains at 4.5% (high estimate), then we're looking at 4,500,000 Americans dying...$22,222 per dead American using your $100 billion number.

Is it worth it? You have to ask yourself: how many Americans have to die to keep you in business?

The federal government slone is going to spend over 1.5 trillion on their response to Covid19. Then there is the cost to state and local governments. However? that does not come close to the cost to businesses and individuals. This was on Covid19 is going to cost each of us well over $10,000.00 each and that is for everyone including children.

Look at what has been approved by Congress. It started with the 8.5 billion in the first bill. The second bill working its way through Congress is 80 billion. And Senator Schumer and others now have a 3rd bill he is working on for 750 billion. And don't forget the National Emergency decree allowed 50 billion more in spending. Just those 4 first steps of spending is almost 900 billion. Then the Federal Reserve has pumped or about to pump in over 2 trillion of new money into the money supply by buying US Treasury notes and bonds. How much will this cost per person? If no other money than the 900 billion is spent by the federal government it works out to 2,500.00 forvevery man, women, and child in the US, add in more for state and local spending. 1.5 trillion is 4,167 per person. Add in half that for state and local spending and we are over 6,000 per person. Then and only then do we get to what this is costing businesses and individuals which will dwarf what the government is spending.

 

[21stamps]

Mild means you didn’t require hospitalization. Getting pneumonia is considered mild

No, that is not true.

 

[Rimmit]

.

Don't disagree with any of that - the disease will overwhelm our medical facilities in the short term and more than likely cause every issue you raise.

That being said, what is our appetite for both economic devastation and panic to slightly or
even moderately improve those situations?

Is it worth shutting down society, causing panic so that grocery stores are overwhelmed, and people are fighting over toilet paper? For the market to lose trillions of value, for hundreds of thousands if not millions to lose their jobs and financial stability?

Is all of that worth it so that hospitals are not temporarily overwhelmed and there isn't some collateral loss of lives due to lack of care?

Again, all "abundance of caution" has a price. We should be openly and clearly debating that price and what we are getting for it.

This really comes down to an ethical question, and this will likely be debated in ethics classes hundreds of years from now about the Covid Pandemic.

What is an acceptable loss of life vs complete disruption of global society/economy?

The issue is that in this case we just don’t know how many lives we are talking. This would be a much easier debate if for example we knew with 100% certainty this virus would kill 200k worldwide and not disrupt our healthcare systems as we know it.

We know, per WHO estimates, approximately 140,000 kids die from measles every year (primarily in Africa). This is a completely preventable disease with a known vaccine. Heck, we’ve done such a great in the US with vaccination it was nearly eradicated until the antivaxxers came about. We accept this loss because we know just how many people die and it is not overwhelming the hospital systems.

You do make a good point. The weakness in your argument comes in that we don’t know what the collateral loss of life will be. In a year or two if this disease becomes endemic, we have more data, and have a better grip as to to the morbidity and mortality of this disease your argument will be much stronger and a debate we will likely be having.

 

[ElvisMickey]

Walmart Ropedrop March 17th St Patrick's Day: No toilet paper.

How was the crowd?