Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[RobWDW1971]

[/QUOTE]
Again, not over in Italy...not by a long shot. They are out of hospital space now and the number of sick needing hospitalization is going up, not down. Their nightmare is just beginning.
[/QUOTE]

Today, in the middle of their "nightmare" with hospital space overwhelmed, they have 92% of the cases not requiring hospitalization. We should just stay grounded on the facts.

 

[21stamps]

If the hospitals are overrun the rate goes up. Look at Italy. Assuming this social distancing is followed and works hopefully the US rate will be closer to 1%. Even at 1% the death toll drops to 1M Americans. Or $100K per person. The argument still holds.

An argument, or point, should be based on accuracy. We don’t know enough to have accuracy, that’s a problem imo.
When more tests come out then we will move closer to accuracy, but we have to be able to know what those numbers are.

 

[hopemax]

The conversation really comes down to what is the cost of each level of "abundance of caution". Abundance of caution isn't free. There is a trade-off that is not being considered, as in the current hysteria it is simply if it is MORE abundance of caution therefore it is inherently right and good. Back to our cars analogy - if the absolute goal was to eliminate auto deaths you could build all cars like tanks, make speed limits 25 max everywhere, or actually ban cars.

Each one of those strategies is more and more abundance of caution. But we have decided as a society that the 40,000+ deaths (nearly entirely preventable if you pursue those policies) are an acceptable trade off to the convenience to our lives and economic benefit.

What's missing in this hysteria and spiraling reaction is that analysis. Simplifying for conversation - is it worth $100 billion of market value to save 1,000 lives? 10,000 lives? How many lives is it worth to have the market down 50%, hundreds of thousands of unemployed, and the US in a recession for years? 100,000 lives? One million lives?

Again, no right answer, but that is the conversation we're having without having it - abundance of caution isn't free so we shouldn't pretend it is.

How about this. The world economy went to hell over the deaths of 2,977 people +19. And the world didn't end. So yeah, I'm going to risk it to save potentially millions worldwide. Goldman Sachs released their projections. First quarter - chaos, 2nd quarter - down 5%, 3rd quarter up 3%, 4th quarter up 4%, revised GDP .4% (still positive growth, if only barely).

 

[GoofGoof]

Today, in the middle of their "nightmare" with hospital space overwhelmed, they have 92% of the cases not requiring hospitalization.

We aren’t worried about the people not needing to be hospitalized. It’s the other number that matters much more.

 

[21stamps]

How about this. The world economy went to hell over the deaths of 2,977 people +19. And the world didn't end. So yeah, I'm going to risk it to save potentially millions worldwide. Goldman Sachs released their projections. First quarter - chaos, 2nd quarter - down 5%, 3rd quarter up 3%, 4th quarter up 4%, revised GDP .4% (still positive growth, if only barely).

I do think that if we get through this, quickly.. then the economy will not fall into a deep recession, but I do see our unemployment rates rising from what they have been the past few years... just not to catastrophic levels.

 

[RobWDW1971]

We aren’t worried about the people not needing to be hospitalized. It’s the other number that matters much more.

Oh, you mean the currently 1,851 in a country of 60 million. Yes, that is a "nightmare".

And are you saying that a virus where 90% of the infections are mild and do not require hospitalization is not relevant in determining how we should respond? Sensing that is a pretty important fun fact.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Korea has only tested 0.4 % of their population.

Depending on the news source, S Korea is testing 10,000 to 20,000 people every day. Canada may be testing 1000 per day or less ... with a population around 2/3 the size of S Korea.

At that rate, Canada won't have tested 0.4% of their population for several months. They better get their act together soon.

It's not identifying every carrier that's critical, it's identifying infected communities and hotspots and using greater isolation and quarantines before they get out of control.

 

[GoofGoof]

Oh, you mean the currently 1,851 in a country of 60 million. Yes, that is a "nightmare".

And are you saying that a virus where 90% of the infections are mild and do not require hospitalization is not relevant in determining how we should respond? Sensing that is a pretty important fun fact.

Did you read @Rimmit ’s post? No way I can explain it any better.

 

[Isher]

500K to 1.5 million Americans dead. Not worldwide. The mortality rate is 10 to 20 times really bad flu seasons.

This is not just the flu. You are at least 2 weeks behind on that argument.

Orange County FL officials held a covid press conference over the weekend. It’s health director, Dr Pino, said “for most people, about 80% of those who come in contact and develop the disease is just a regular cold/flu-like disease.” He then goes on to explain that, as with any other illness, its the chronic health issues that will complicate matters for some individuals. This is not the first doctor or medical professional I’ve heard call it a flu or a cold.

Yet, people on here get pretty abrasive if someone were to suggest otherwise. They are adamant that this is not a cold, and this is not a flu.

After spending some time on this thread I’m learning that there’s way too much panic and hysteria being generated here. Mass graves you can see from space? Not happening. Possible reinfections? Not likely. It really seems like a number of people are parroting attention grabbing headlines as fact without corroborating anything. After tonight I’m done with this thread to save my own sanity. I’ll just use this isolation to work on my garden and not go anywhere near the internet.

 

[GoofGoof]

Orange County FL officials held a covid press conference over the weekend. It’s health director, Dr Pino, said “for most people, about 80% of those who come in contact and develop the disease is just a regular cold/flu-like disease.” He then goes on to explain that, as with any other illness, its the chronic health issues that will complicate matters for some individuals. This is not the first doctor or medical professional I’ve heard call it a flu or a cold.

Yet, people on here get pretty abrasive if someone was to suggest otherwise. They are adamant that this is not a cold, and this is not a flu.

After spending some time on this thread I’m learning that there’s way too much panic and hysteria being generated here. Mass graves you can see from space? Not happening. Possible reinfections? Not likely. It really seems like a number of people of parroting attention grabbing headlines as fact without corroborating anything. After tonight I’m done with this thread to save my own sanity. I’ll just use this isolation to work on my garden and not go anywhere near the internet.

Sounds like a good plan. Enjoy

 

[larryz]

An argument, or point, should be based on accuracy. We don’t know enough to have accuracy, that’s a problem imo.
When more tests come out then we will move closer to accuracy, but we have to be able to know what those numbers are.

Make up your own numbers then and run your own projections. I took the 4.5 percent as a high estimate based on this chart (from this paper in the Lancet):

It's not a problem if you assume you've been in contact and you just isolate yourself like the leaders are asking you to. Maybe while you're hunkered down they can come up with some of the information you're looking for. But to sit there indecisive and quibbling about not having enough information is not a fast track to survival. Considering where you've been for the past two weeks, do you really want to chance getting exposed to SARS-CoV-2?

Hunker down. Isolate. Stay informed as further information is developed and released.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Thats what you don’t understand. The country would not just move on. The reason that having 500k die from cancer or 66k from drunk driving or whatever current disease you pick is an acceptable loss is because we know within a reasonable margin of error how many we have every year. For that reason we are prepared. We know how many ventilators we need. We know about how many nurses we need staffed.

The census of my ICU is reasonably stable. There are peaks and troughs and times when I can run out of beds for a period of time, But for the most part we have the equipment to handle the situations we are presented with 95 percent of the time. I know with a small margin of error how many admissions a year I will get to my ICU.

This is a brand new virus, of which about 20 percent require admission and around 10-8 percent become critically ill. The length of stay of these patients appears to be quite prolonged and can easily be 10-14 days at minimum. Longer if they end up on the vent in an ICU. Let’s say you just get 10 patients. They lock down 10 beds from 10-14 days. That is 100-140 patient days. A hospital can only absorb so much. This then trickles down to interruption of regular healthcare. Our hospital has already stopped elective procedures come Wed. In anticipation of the potential need to use the ORs for possible ICU use. You can run out of EMS staff as they are to busy transporting patients. They may not be able to respond to a car wreck or an emergency call as they are out on transport. Your regular PMD may not be available because he has been drafted to manage Covid patients because to many of the other doctors have been quarantined and are now sick.

Eventually if this disease becomes endemic there will be some innate immunity in the community. It will eventually become like the measles, chicken pox, HIV, TB, car wrecks, etc. In that we will be able to predict how many a year die and also adjust our hospital capacities accordingly. The issue is we don’t know what is going to happen, and with something like this where NO ONE has immunity it will crush our healthcare system if we don’t slow it down. The moment it overwhelms the system all aspects of life will be affected. Not just the old and dying.

This is very well said. Thank you.

The medical folks I know have said they're already having problems with some of this. They don't have nearly enough supplies and equipment for the patients or staff.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

You're quoting stuff that means nothing to the problem at hand. Profit over a 12month period sounds like a lot - but you're ignoring their ongoing expenses are WAY WAY WAY bigger - and even if they still had all that profit from 2019 sitting right on their desk, it alone would not cover the loss of revenue.

Take delta for instance... at the end of 2019, they pulled in over 11 billion in revenue in the quarter. They have roughly 10 billion in operating expenses in that quarter. So if your revenues completely tank... what covers that 10 billion flowing out?? The 2019 profit you mention.. 4 billion in profit? It's already gone. 3 billion went back to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. It's not in the company's hands. 1.6 billion went back to employees through profit sharing. But even if they still had it... it's not enough to offset the crashing revenue on it's own.


The financial impact of these slowdown will have to address both household sustainability... and keeping businesses from facing bankruptcies due to revenue collapse. Both will have to be addressed... and will need different methods.

I could care less, honestly. I don't want to hear a single thing about multi-billion dollar companies being bailed out until we take care of the citizens first.

 

[flynnibus]

I could care less, honestly. I don't want to hear a single thing about multi-billion dollar companies being bailed out until we take care of the citizens first.

Then you really shouldn't be throwing around citations or 'facts' trying to justify your ideology... just stick to your emotional belief.

 

[21stamps]

Make up your own numbers then and run your own projections. I took the 4.5 percent as a high estimate based on this chart (from this paper in the Lancet):
View attachment 456766

It's not a problem if you assume you've been in contact and you just isolate yourself like the leaders are asking you to. Maybe while you're hunkered down they can come up with some of the information you're looking for. But to sit there indecisive and quibbling about not having enough information is not a fast track to survival. Considering where you've been for the past two weeks, do you really want to chance getting exposed to SARS-CoV-2?

Hunker down. Isolate. Stay informed as further information is developed and released.

There are so many of us who are not isolated, we are going to work every day.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Then you really shouldn't be throwing around citations or 'facts' trying to justify your ideology... just stick to your emotional belief.

The reality is people don't get to net billions of dollars a year. Most of these people are living paycheck to paycheck because of stagnated wages from these same corporations who bend over backwards to limit the upward mobility of most of the citizens. That's just reality. Now they're looking for handouts (if anything, they should get loans that require payback, nothing 'for free') to pay those same operating costs you talk about, but how much of that is going to ultimately end up in the hands of their employees?

 

[flynnibus]

The reality is people don't get to net billions of dollars a year. Most of these people are living paycheck to paycheck because of stagnated wages from these same corporations who bend over backwards to limit the upward mobility of most of the citizens. That's just reality. Now they're looking for handouts (if anything, they should get loans that require payback, nothing 'for free') to pay those same operating costs you talk about, but how much of that is going to ultimately end up in the hands of their employees?

You are never going to get it because you are emotionally wound up over an ideology.

You missed where I pointed out nearly 40% of that 'billions of dollars' WENT TO EMPLOYEES as profit sharing. Another 25% went to everyone holding the stock.

You also missed where I said solutions have to address both companies and individuals. Because giving money to companies does not mean 100% goes directly to employees in need NOW. But just giving money to employees in turn does not keep the company running either. Companies not paying their bills is just as bad as the freeze itself... because it ripples down through the feeder networks of businesses. That's why I said you will need to address relief for both businesses and individuals -- and through different means.

The economy is a cycle.. full of interdependent elements. That's why "too big to fail" is even a thing.. the cascading effects do more damage than the cost of the fix.

Businesses will need relief to keep their ability to pay expenses when there is no revenue
Individuals will need relief to keep their ability to pay expenses when there is no work

As long as the need for a business to operate is artifically disrupted... the normal flow of sales -> workers will be disrupted and the viability of business is thrown off kilter.

It's not an 'either or' situation - both need addressing because the whole capitalism model that makes businesses, and hence employment, and in turn sustainability... work... is completely broke and can't spring back to where it was instantly.

If you planned to spend $1000 this year because you were planning on making $12000 this year doing something... if I suddenly take away 8-15% of your time you planned on having to make that $12000... you won't make $12000 anymore. And if your expenses don't shrink proportionately as well... it's a double whammy. Your revenue goes down AND your margins shrink. The only way to counter that as a business is to cut expenses... which is why it will lead to layoffs and other contractions. Which in turn hurts more workers.. and the cycle continues.

 

[THE 1HAPPY HAUNT]

and what is the population of Korea, Josh Hendy?

Don't they multiply with water? Wait..no. That's Gremlins.

 

[celluloid]

One extreme thing I think you could see the Disney company do after this is part ways with parks in china. They were often operating at a loss, and Hong Kong, operating at an Increasing Loss and now, well, it is likely the fat that needs to be trimmed.

 

[celluloid]

not happening.
they make the money off the Disney movies and the parks are free advertising.

Not saying it will, but it could. They tried the "because they are the most populated country" approach, but it still operates at a loss and even when the product is catered to government approval it often fails (Mulan and parks were being hated on and not doing well before the virus)
Affording movies is a different market than affording a theme park. Movies can still succeed. If you think the luxory of a theme park is for the well to do here, the gap is bigger in China.