Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JoeCamel]

When my mom got her series starting back in January, somebody from the State did call her to schedule the second appointment a few days in advance. You might want to go to https://myvaccine.fl.gov/. I think there is an option to say you need a second dose.

The State run and supported sites are 7 days a week. I don't know what the retail partners do or the county run sites. They don't have enough doses to do any more per week anyway. They are reserving second doses so that's the difference between doses delivered and doses administered.

I am registered, had 5 - count em 5- calls for first shots to date. Nothing for the second. Once the clock ticks past my due by date I get to call a special number. They got a couple of days.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

@GoofGoof will when mask mandate and social distancing will be gone forever? Maybe early summer-mid summer if all cases are low enough as all people got vaccine?

Masks until 2022 is basically a sure-bet. They will likely relax social distancing before they relax mask policy because liability and $.


Will the booster (third vaccine) shots be recommended/available by the end of 2021? That's a more interesting question IMO. The media has finally started talking about the necessity of boosters (annual or biannual shots) within the last few weeks. USA will have to convince people to take those vaccines too.

 

[Disney Experience]

Speaking of cruises and vaccines:

Will vaccines be required when cruise business gets up and running?

If cruise lines begin sailing again in June, after nearly 15 months of shutdowns in North America, will you need a vaccine to board? At least two smaller cruise lines that sail in the U.S. have sai…

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[dizneyingaffect]

Well we're on day 348 of "15 Days to Slow the Spread" so...

It's "President Trump's 15 Days to Slow the Spread". Give credit where credit is due, he was obviously correct.

 

[Touchdown]

Masks until 2022 is basically a sure-bet. They will likely relax social distancing before they relax mask policy because liability and $.
.

If we vaccinate every adult by July (and per manufactures we will have enough) community spread should cease by no later then Sept, potentially earlier. Barring a nasty varient appearing it is unlikely masks will go to 2022. Cases are down in this country >70% it will not take until 2022 to end this on the path we are on.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

How many months will there will be back to normal soon?

Summer 2022 is looking very promising, by then there will be political pressure to "end the new normal" and people will really stop complying. I say that as someone who is pro-health, pro-science, anti-death & suffering, etc. Not that the virus will be "gone"; it's mutating rapidly and people aren't willing to commit to zero covid, but the culture war should change the dynamic by then. Should be very interesting.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Summer 2022 is looking very promising, by then there will be political pressure to "end the new normal" and people will really stop complying. I say that as someone who is pro-health, pro-science, anti-death & suffering, etc. Not that the virus will be "gone"; it's mutating rapidly and people aren't willing to commit to zero covid, but the culture war should change the dynamic by then. Should be very interesting.

Over 92% of deaths are in those over 55. Once they are vaccinated, there’s no need for public health measures. We would accept 35k deaths in a year from COVID. We don’t wear masks when 60k die from flu, either. And, of course, those with comorbidities under age 55, who make up the bulk of those 35k deaths can and should also be vaccinated by June 30, 2021. Probably earlier.

It will finally be “just the flu,” but 18 months later than the anti-science fools suggested.

 

[DCBaker]

"The Food and Drug Administration on Saturday issued an emergency authorization for a Covid-19 vaccine developed by Johnson & Johnson, the third vaccine to be cleared for use in the United States and the first that requires only one dose.

The vaccine, which has not yet been tested in children or adolescents, was cleared for use in adults aged 18 and older."

This article also notes this of the 2nd dose trial -

"J&J is also conducting a trial in the United States of a two-dose vaccine, with the doses given eight weeks apart. The results from that 30,000-person trial are not expected until sometime in May. During Friday’s meeting of the expert panel, several members questioned whether that trial will show that the J&J vaccine really should be given in a two-dose regimen. But Marion Gruber, director of the FDA’s Office of Vaccines Research and Review, suggested if the results point to a second dose being needed, that can be addressed when J&J files for full licensure of its vaccine."

FDA authorizes Johnson & Johnson's single-dose Covid-19 vaccine

The Food and Drug Administration has issued an emergency authorization for Johnson & Johnson's single-dose Covid-19 vaccine.

www.statnews.com

Here's a link to the FDA announcement -

FDA Issues Emergency Use Authorization for Third COVID-19 Vaccine

The FDA issued an EUA for the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine, allowing the vaccine to be distributed in the U.S for use in individuals 18 years of age and older.

www.fda.gov

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

2.4M doses today per Bloomberg tracker. Another record day. 7 day rolling average up to 1.65M per day. Keep on ramping up . JnJ hits next week or 2 so should boost up numbers even more.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Does this mean we are making it GREAT again?

 

[Disney Experience]

Great article showing a 140 fold increase of antibodies to people who previously had covid and get a single Pfizer vaccine shot.

Antibody response to first BNT162b2 dose in previously SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals

Rapid vaccine-induced population immunity is a key global strategy to control COVID-19. Vaccination programmes must maximise early impact, particularly with accelerated spread of new variants.1 Most vaccine platforms use a two-dose prime-boost approach to generate an immune response against the...

www.thelancet.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I disagree:


-CDC guidelines have changed significantly over the last 5 weeks (significant considering we're almost a year in). "New CDC, New Me".


-Disney HAS raised its allocations numbers within the last 30 days (I don't use the term "capacity" because it's misleading, and Disney knows this). Table service restaurant capacity is very important to Disney's guest experience, so increasing the number of tables per day accommodates current crowd levels which are at or above December/early January levels.


-People shouldn't be ordering food within 6 feet of server without wearing their mask. Server face shields don't block smaller aerosol particles floating in the air, and people shouldn't be expelling unblocked particles around them.

This is very good insight.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

If we vaccinate every adult by July (and per manufactures we will have enough) community spread should cease by no later then Sept, potentially earlier. Barring a nasty varient appearing it is unlikely masks will go to 2022. Cases are down in this country >70% it will not take until 2022 to end this on the path we are on.

You're ignoring young adults and kids who can't get the vaccine by then, innoculation logistics, the higher threshold needed for herd immunity re: the new variants B117 P1 etc.

100 million Americans vaccinated by December 2020! Seriously though scaling up the number of jabs is a lot easier than scaling up the vaccine supply, shots don't shoot themselves. And that's on top of vaccine burnout where adults who struggle to get an appointment or second dose will give up. Look up the efficacy of one dose vs two doses for the two dose shots.

I expect leaders in to try out new arguments like "healthy people don't necessarily need to be vaccinated". I also expect certain governors like the state of FL to go from certain groups to open season to around August-October (depending on when EUA approves vaccine for teenagers) "let's prioritize the kids getting their first two shots and old people getting their third shot".

I also expect our current climate of "mixed zero covid and protecting the vulnerable" to lean more towards the protecting the vulnerable side, where "preventing deaths" becomes the focus instead of zero COVID. The more this virus circulates the more it mutates, we're on track for a lot of risks that will IMO necessitate health passports or other measures as "new normal". It's ironic because the "no new normal" crowd is the reason why the USA COVID situation is more similar to Russia and Brazil than AUS or NZ.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'd imagine a lot of medical professionals get it at work (and may only be offered M-F depending on staffing?)

Maybe the same is true for nursing homes?

Good grief...this has needs to be a 7 day affair...it really should be a 24/7 affair...but I’d settle for day shift.

 

[DisneyFan32]

If we vaccinate every adult by July (and per manufactures we will have enough) community spread should cease by no later then Sept, potentially earlier. Barring a nasty varient appearing it is unlikely masks will go to 2022. Cases are down in this country >70% it will not take until 2022 to end this on the path we are on.

Masks may be gone maybe this summer than early 2022. But social distancing will be gone sooner then masks will be last by summer.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

I also expect our current climate of "mixed zero covid and protecting the vulnerable" to lean more towards the protecting the vulnerable side, where "preventing deaths" becomes the focus instead of zero COVID. The more this virus circulates the more it mutates, we're on track for a lot of risks that will IMO necessitate health passports or other measures as "new normal". It's ironic because the "no new normal" crowd is the reason why the USA COVID situation is more similar to Russia and Brazil than AUS or NZ.

Over 92% of deaths are in those over 55. Once they are vaccinated, there’s no need for public health measures. We would accept 35k deaths in a year from COVID. We don’t wear masks when 60k die from flu, either. And, of course, those with comorbidities under age 55, who make up the bulk of those 35k deaths can and should also be vaccinated by June 30, 2021. Probably earlier.

It will finally be “just the flu,” but 18 months later than the anti-science fools suggested.

Bump

 

[Patcheslee]

Good grief...this has needs to be a 7 day affair...it really should be a 24/7 affair...but I’d settle for day shift.

Could part of it be the lack of vaccines to distribute 7 days a week?

 

[SamusAranX]

Um, Florida is reporting non-resident deaths. Not sure who posted that. But @DCBaker ’s updates contain it every day

 

[JoeCamel]

Great article showing a 140 fold increase of antibodies to people who previously had covid and get a single Pfizer vaccine shot.

Antibody response to first BNT162b2 dose in previously SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals

Rapid vaccine-induced population immunity is a key global strategy to control COVID-19. Vaccination programmes must maximise early impact, particularly with accelerated spread of new variants.1 Most vaccine platforms use a two-dose prime-boost approach to generate an immune response against the...

www.thelancet.com

If you test positive for antibodies at the time of the first dose of the vaccine.....
I had it a year ago (pretty severe case) but by July of last year I tested negative for antibodies.

 

[JoeCamel]

Um, Florida is reporting non-resident deaths. Not sure who posted that. But @DCBaker ’s updates contain it every day

Yeah, those pesky people that come to Florida to die. He separates this why?

 

[Touchdown]

Um, Florida is reporting non-resident deaths. Not sure who posted that. But @DCBaker ’s updates contain it every day

Not only that, every state reports cases and deaths based on your permanent address, not the location of your test/death. If I was to test positive in Florida, California or Colorado it would not matter or count for those states, my result would be reported to the WI DHS and recorded as a new positive case in Wisconsin.