Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Tom P.]

Correct.... saying anyone can sign up for a vaccine as of May 3rd... is pretty consistent with the timeline announced by Biden that everyone can get fully vaccinated by the end of July. And even that might be a little too optimistic.

From several days of reading your posts here, I suspect that if someone said, "I think the sun will come up tomorrow," you would say that might be a little too optimistic.

 

[havoc315]

From several days of reading your posts here, I suspect that if someone said, "I think the sun will come up tomorrow," you would say that might be a little too optimistic.

The irony... is I’m far more optimistic than you. I think we can and will basically eradicate Covid by the end of the year. You constantly imply that won’t happen.

And while the sun might come up tomorrow... supposed to snow and be cloudy, so won’t see it.

 

[Patcheslee]

My county hasn't done a large number of vaccinations for multiple days now. First thought it was the winter storm but all roads have been clear since Friday. Just out of curiosity went to the page for Indiana appointments. Appointments as early as 11am TODAY. The other 2 sites have multiple appointments as early as tomorrow. Maybe it means we've already reached as many willing and eligible people in the county needing appointments? Not a good sign if that indicates a large percentage choosing not to vaccinate.
Good sign if they've managed to cover most people in the eligible group and means we're close to the next age opening up.

 

[DisneyCane]

Long term care facilities residents and staff report:

60% decline in currently infected residents 1/18-2/16, 57.7% decline in currently infected staff in the same time frame.

Data seems encouraging that the vaccine(s) are preventing infections, not just symptoms since I believe the staff is still tested once every two weeks. Staff should roughly be in line with the general population without the vaccine so the dramatic decrease in staff current positives seems to indicate the vaccine(s) having an effect.

View attachment 532798

Quick update to the Florida long term care facility data to try and assess how effective the vaccinations are in the real world. As of 2/1, all residents and staff of long term care facilities were offered the vaccine. I have not seen any data about the acceptance rate.

From 1/18-2/21, the number of COVID positive residents has declined 70.6% and the number of COVID positive staff has declined 68.8%. According to the data from worlometers.info, the seven day rolling average of new cases in FL have declined 51% over the same time period. Taken together, this data appears to indicate that the vaccinations are very effective in preventing infections in the real world. The staff lives outside of the facility and without vaccination would be expected to track similarly to the general population. The decline in COVID positive staff was 34.9% more than the decline in the overall population.

I know that this analysis isn't perfect because the LTC report is looking at current positive people and the other data is new cases daily. Also, the vaccine acceptance rate isn't known and neither is the data for when the staff received each shot. When taken with other vaccine studies and trials, this data seems to reinforce the effectiveness.

 

[DisneyCane]

I saw this tweet on the FL COVID page and thought it was worth pointing out as a counter to the posts about evil Ron Desantis and the 3000 doses targeted at zip codes that were "too wealthy and too white." None of the articles mentioned anything about the outreach to underserved communities that has been going on since the very beginning of the vaccinations and that Governor Desantis talked about in a press conference very early on.

Over ten times the number of people have been targeted by this outreach as were targeted in those two zip codes yet the media doesn't mention it and neither did anybody in this thread who was posting the articles to show how horrible Desantis is. I guess this type of information doesn't fit the narrative.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">️ To date, the state has administered nearly 45,000 vaccines across 57 places of worship vaccination sites in underserved communities.<br><br>The state continues identify places of worship to support one-day vaccination sites &amp; increase vaccine access to Florida&#39;s seniors. <a href="https://t.co/yWvz1LqgDS">pic.twitter.com/yWvz1LqgDS</a></p>&mdash; FL Division of Emergency Management (@FLSERT) <a href="">February 22, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Kevin_W]

Yes, it is definitely multifaceted. Not to be attributed to one mitigation or another. Again, if people want to wear masks in future flu seasons, more power to them. Hopefully schools and offices (kids and workplaces being primary spread locations for cold/flu season) have learned to keep things clean in perpetuity. Cruise lines learned a lot and large infestations of norovirus hardly pop up there anymore. Hopefully cruise buffets in their traditional sense are long gone, too.

I agree 100% that workplace (and, again, classroom) sick policies need major restructuring going forward. Let's not lose the momentum when we're able to call the pandemic itself "over."

I hope these strategies stay. Outside of cruise line virus outbreaks, no one is contact tracing to show that that flu you got was because they chair/door at the restaurant wasn't sanitized so the cleaning procedures don't have a "visible" benefit that a restaurant can trace to their bottom line. But hopefully we keep up the effort. I'd like to see appropriately-themed hand sanitizer stations at ride exits forever as well.

I saw on of these a couple weeks ago - a UV-C sanitizing robot for balance beams. Talk about a niche market. But my daughter has gotten foot warts a couple times - probably form balance beams/uneven bars at the gym, so this seems like a good idea.

 

[DisneyCane]

I hope these strategies stay. Outside of cruise line virus outbreaks, no one is contact tracing to show that that flu you got was because they chair/door at the restaurant wasn't sanitized so the cleaning procedures don't have a "visible" benefit that a restaurant can trace to their bottom line. But hopefully we keep up the effort. I'd like to see appropriately-themed hand sanitizer stations at ride exits forever as well.

I saw on of these a couple weeks ago - a UV-C sanitizing robot for balance beams. Talk about a niche market. But my daughter has gotten foot warts a couple times - probably form balance beams/uneven bars at the gym, so this seems like a good idea.

I'm not so sure the UV-C thing would work that well on a balance beam or any other gymnastics equipment. The chalk dust would block the light from hitting a lot of the microbes. I would think some kind of liquid disinfectant would be required. Maybe an alcohol spray in enough volume that it stays wet long enough but then the quick evaporation doesn't leave you with wet equipment.

 

[Kevin_W]

I'm not so sure the UV-C thing would work that well on a balance beam or any other gymnastics equipment. The chalk dust would block the light from hitting a lot of the microbes. I would think some kind of liquid disinfectant would be required. Maybe an alcohol spray in enough volume that it stays wet long enough but then the quick evaporation doesn't leave you with wet equipment.

Good point. I was thinking that I hoped they had measured dosage or done some testing to see if this worked, but that might be wishful thinking. There isn't a ton of chalk on beams (compared to bars), but there is some on every gym surface.

Calcium carbonate does not absorb strongly in the wavelength of germicidal UV, but I cannot readily find a spectrum for Magnesium carbonate, so I don't know if it would block the UV or not.

I've often thought that germicidal chalk needs to be an invention!

 

[drizgirl]

Absolutely. My state (Connecticut) announced the final vaccine schedule today. Vaccine will be available to ANYONE over 16 on May 3. There will be little appetite for restrictions within a few weeks of that date, here. I can see holding the line through about Memorial Day to give people a chance to get in, but not much longer than that. And we are a more-restrictive state.

I think that's great. Very encouraging. Just know that your state is not typical though. Many old people in my area still aren't able to get appointments. I can't even fathom having it available to anyone over 16 for some time.

 

[havoc315]

Some good news... looks like Moderna and Pfizer will be significantly increased production and release of vaccine doses. JNJ looks to deliver 20 million by the end of March, and 25 million+ per month from April - June.

This is excellent news, call for cautious optimism.
But it is important to stretch the caution.

Our goal, to reach herd immunity, is a minimum of 70% of the population vaccinated. 230 million adults vaccinated.
There are 3 critical legs to get there:
1 -- Adequate supply of vaccine
2 -- The distribution infrastructure to actually get that vaccine jabbed into arms.
3 -- Sufficient demand.

Up to now, there has been a bottle neck at #1. We have plenty of demand, and we mostly have had sufficient distribution infrastructure. (though we have seen problems with that infrastructure in the first weeks, then again we saw weather breakdowns in the distribution infrastructure).

We will likely get to a point where #2 and #3 become the limiting factors.

We have been doing about 1.5 million jabs per day. We have the capacity for more, but how much more?
We have done 65 million jabs. For simplicity sake, we will call that 32 million people, though it's really more like 20 million got 2 jabs and 40 million got 1 jab so far, but that will balance out in the long term.

So, if we need to get 200 million more adults vaccinated. Can we get there by the end of June?

So now let's assume we actually have enough vaccine, which looks very possible. How many "jabs" would we need to do over the next 4 months?
Let's assume we get 95 million doses of JNJ.... That's easy math, 95 million jabs, 95 million people covered.
Still need another 105 million people covered with 2 dose regimens. So that's another 210 million jabs.

So looking at the need for another 305 million jabs over the next 125 days... Or an average of 2.5 million jabs per day, about 1 million more per day than we have been doing thus far. I suspect we will eventually ramp up to that level, but I suspect there will be some growing pains along the way. Point is though, I wouldn't expect a 100% smooth ramp up across the country. There could be some delays.

Even more significant becomes #3 at some point. Right now, demand overwhelms supply. My 230 million number represents 70% of the population -- That's basically the minimum number most experts estimate for herd immunity. It's likely higher. But if we were to hit 70% by end of June, we'd at least be well on our way.
But remember, kids aren't getting the vaccine. So 230 million adults actually represents over 80% of the adult population. Will 80% of adults be willing to sign up for voluntary vaccinations by end of June? Not according to most polls...

So the very good news: We will have enough vaccine for most adults by the end of June...
The caution: We will need to ramp up our distribution capability
The concern: We will eventually have more supply and distribution than actual demand. By June, we may be having heated arguments within government about compulsory vaccination, as well as various carrots and sticks that can be used to encourage vaccination.

 

[havoc315]

I think that's great. Very encouraging. Just know that your state is not typical though. Many old people in my area still aren't able to get appointments. I can't even fathom having it available to anyone over 16 for some time.

Actually, that is pretty typical. It doesn't mean that all the elderly will be vaccinated before May.

For example, in New York -- They already opened up vaccinate eligibility to about half the adult population -- teachers, grocery workers, essential workers, anyone with obesity or hypertension, etc. Yet, there are still 80 year-olds who haven't been able to get an appointment.

So yes, Connecticut will have eligibility for everyone on May 3rd. But there may still be 80 year-olds who haven't gotten their jabs yet.
And that's what we are seeing around the country -- To keep things moving, they are expanding eligibility BEFORE completing the previously eligible groups.
I'm under 50 and have mild hypertension, I have an appointment in New York next week for my vaccine -- But there are lots of 70+ year-olds who haven't been able to get an appointment yet, or who have appointments scheduled for late April.

 

[Mark52479]

reading some of the other boards and blogs, it looks like Fireworks will be back this summer.

That should be interesting. I guess they have a plan for that already.

I wonder if they are going to use the DOTS to stand on like some of the other parks use.

 

[havoc315]

reading some of the other boards and blogs, it looks like Fireworks will be back this summer.

That should be interesting. I guess they have a plan for that already.

I wonder if they are going to use the DOTS to stand on like some of the other parks use.

Probably depends when and which park. I wouldn't expect all the night time entertainment to return to the 3 parks that previously really had it. (We already know Rivers of Light is not returning to AK).

My best guess: Fireworks comes first to Epcot. Plenty of room for social distancing around the world showcase. Epcot needs to draw more guests. And the restaurants around Epcot are really dependent on fireworks to help their business. So especially as restaurant capacity increases, they will want entertainment to help fill the tables.

Magic Kingdom fireworks may come back slower as there is typically less room for viewing with most people squeezing into Main Street. Plus, Magic Kingdom doesn't have as desperate a need to draw more people.

DHS could be looking at fireworks AND Fantasmic. Being Fantasmic is inside a controlled arena, it's easy to control the attendance for social distancing. The bigger issue becomes social distancing among the cast. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a modified version of Fantasmic come back by summer.

 

[Mark52479]

Probably depends when and which park. I wouldn't expect all the night time entertainment to return to the 3 parks that previously really had it. (We already know Rivers of Light is not returning to AK).

My best guess: Fireworks comes first to Epcot. Plenty of room for social distancing around the world showcase. Epcot needs to draw more guests. And the restaurants around Epcot are really dependent on fireworks to help their business. So especially as restaurant capacity increases, they will want entertainment to help fill the tables.

Magic Kingdom fireworks may come back slower as there is typically less room for viewing with most people squeezing into Main Street. Plus, Magic Kingdom doesn't have as desperate a need to draw more people.

DHS could be looking at fireworks AND Fantasmic. Being Fantasmic is inside a controlled arena, it's easy to control the attendance for social distancing. The bigger issue becomes social distancing among the cast. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a modified version of Fantasmic come back by summer.

Yeah it looks like it will be Epcot fireworks first.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

If you count indoor shows without live performers then there is Carousel of Progress, Muppets, and Country Bears.

There is actually quite a few more than that. For indoor shows the following are all open:

Country Bear Jamboree
It's Tough to be a Bug
Mickey's PhilharMagic
Carousel of Progress
Enchanted Tiki Room
Canada Far and Wide
Impressions de France
Muppet Vision 3D
Reflections of China
American Adventure

 

[ABQ]

We're likely to see a bigger PR campaign on vaccinations....once supplies aren't so limited: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/07/biden-coronavirus-vaccine-campaign-466434

And some, though not all, of the COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy will take it of itself as more people get it. Hardcore anti-vaxxers are a lost cause, but they're also promising a wave of destruction and death from these vaccines that hasn't materialized.

We have tens of millions of people who have been vaccinated now with no significant, systemic health issues -- and the more a person hears about their friends and family getting it with no serious problems, the more comfortable they'll become taking it themselves.

The anti vaxxers will you that against you. Just as when they point out how many recover from covid swiftly and are told "But we don't know the long term reactions to having covid yet" They'll say "we don't know the long term reactions to taking the covid vaccine yet"

 

[havoc315]

We're likely to see a bigger PR campaign on vaccinations....once supplies aren't so limited: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/07/biden-coronavirus-vaccine-campaign-466434

And some, though not all, of the COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy will take it of itself as more people get it. Hardcore anti-vaxxers are a lost cause, but they're also promising a wave of destruction and death from these vaccines that hasn't materialized.

We have tens of millions of people who have been vaccinated now with no significant, systemic health issues -- and the more a person hears about their friends and family getting it with no serious problems, the more comfortable they'll become taking it themselves.

Agreed with all that. I'm loathe to make estimates on the number who will voluntarily get vaccinated. The polls aren't super-reliable with wide variation, different wording, etc.
I'm confident more than 50% of adults will voluntarily go out and get vaccinated.... but I'm also pretty sure it's under 90%. It's not just hard-core anti-vaxxers. It will also be people who take the attitude of "I'll get around to it eventually.. I've been busy.."

We are already getting "carrots" from within private industry. Many employers, ranging from Starbucks to Publix, are giving employees incentives to get the vaccine. Starbucks is giving 2 hours paid time off to get each jab. I think Publix is offering $100 to employees who get it.

We are starting to see the emergence of government carrot/stick: For travel to Hawaii, you can now get out of mandatory quarantine with either a negative test within 3 days prior to your trip, OR proof of vaccination.


Again, this is all very very general thought process.... but as we surpass some level over 50% vaccinated, I think we will be investing more time and money into encouraging people to quickly get vaccinated... reaching out to those who haven't been rushing to get the vaccine. And at some point beyond that, we may be getting more into compulsory vaccination.
But I think we will hit a slowdown where the people who were desperate to get the vaccine ASAP will all have gotten it.

 

[havoc315]

The anti vaxxers will you that against you. Just as when they point out how many recover from covid swiftly and are told "But we don't know the long term reactions to having covid yet" They'll say "we don't know the long term reactions to taking the covid vaccine yet"

You'll get tons of "excuses" beyond the hard-core anti-vaxxers.
You'll have those who say, "well, I think I already have Covid.. so I don't think I really need the vaccine...."
You'll have, "Well... Dr. Fauci said only 70% of people need to get the vaccine. So I'll just be in the 30% who don't"
"I'm concerned because the vaccine wasn't really tested on people who have _______ like me..."
"I really want to wait at least a year to make sure the vaccine is safe..."
"I went to the pharmacy to get the vaccine but they were out... the nearest available vaccine is an hour away, and you have to wait in line... and it's hard for me to get off from work.... I'll get around to it eventually"

Right now, we are still within the 10-20% of people who are like, "I want the vaccine NOW.. I'm willing to refresh web pages for hours starting at 6 am to schedule an appointment! I'm willing to wait in the snow in the line for 3 hours at 3 am to get a vaccine!"

 

[ToTBellHop]

Actually, that is pretty typical. It doesn't mean that all the elderly will be vaccinated before May.

For example, in New York -- They already opened up vaccinate eligibility to about half the adult population -- teachers, grocery workers, essential workers, anyone with obesity or hypertension, etc. Yet, there are still 80 year-olds who haven't been able to get an appointment.

So yes, Connecticut will have eligibility for everyone on May 3rd. But there may still be 80 year-olds who haven't gotten their jabs yet.
And that's what we are seeing around the country -- To keep things moving, they are expanding eligibility BEFORE completing the previously eligible groups.
I'm under 50 and have mild hypertension, I have an appointment in New York next week for my vaccine -- But there are lots of 70+ year-olds who haven't been able to get an appointment yet, or who have appointments scheduled for late April.

Exactly. Psychologically, by opening up to more groups as quickly as possible, you do a few things:

1) get the people who actually want the shot in quickly, so they stop calling the vaccine call-lines demanding a timeline and taking up the call center person's time;
2) ensure demand stays elevated and people don't walk away due to frustration at delays (and demand, in turn, fuels further interest--just look at the jealous Facebook comments in response to "I got my FauciOuchi!" posts);
3) add individuals of all walks of life who then share their experience with others, creating a band-wagon effect which is rather difficult to create if you only focus on the very old or very ill.

Also, we can debate this until the sheep come home, but the single strongest predictor of covid-19 outcome is age. Obsessing over which comorbidity has a strong enough PAC the ensure they make the list is futile and you always another group off that wasn't included. The best policy is KISS: "Keep it simple, stupid."

 

[ToTBellHop]

Agreed with all that. I'm loathe to make estimates on the number who will voluntarily get vaccinated. The polls aren't super-reliable with wide variation, different wording, etc.
I'm confident more than 50% of adults will voluntarily go out and get vaccinated.... but I'm also pretty sure it's under 90%. It's not just hard-core anti-vaxxers. It will also be people who take the attitude of "I'll get around to it eventually.. I've been busy.."

We are already getting "carrots" from within private industry. Many employers, ranging from Starbucks to Publix, are giving employees incentives to get the vaccine. Starbucks is giving 2 hours paid time off to get each jab. I think Publix is offering $100 to employees who get it.

We are starting to see the emergence of government carrot/stick: For travel to Hawaii, you can now get out of mandatory quarantine with either a negative test within 3 days prior to your trip, OR proof of vaccination.


Again, this is all very very general thought process.... but as we surpass some level over 50% vaccinated, I think we will be investing more time and money into encouraging people to quickly get vaccinated... reaching out to those who haven't been rushing to get the vaccine. And at some point beyond that, we may be getting more into compulsory vaccination.
But I think we will hit a slowdown where the people who were desperate to get the vaccine ASAP will all have gotten it.

The average in groups that are eligible has been 2/3 showing up for vaccine voluntarily, which is pretty good. More will come along later.