Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Chi84]

Check with Disney legal they will have the final say before it heads over to their PR department

I don't think legal so much as the CM unions. It will be interesting to see what position they take on vaccines. There was a report not long ago that said most workers support mandatory vaccines. Once the CMs are protected against getting the virus, they may not be as insistent on other restrictions, especially if those restrictions lead to fewer guests in the parks/jobs for CMs.

 

[Figgy1]

I don't think legal so much as the CM unions. It will be interesting to see what position they take on vaccines. There was a report not long ago that said most workers support mandatory vaccines. Once the CMs are protected against getting the virus, they may not be as insistent on other restrictions, especially if those restrictions lead to fewer guests in the parks/jobs for CMs.

I'm sure the unions will have a say but legal and PR will have the final word

 

[Disney Experience]

Eu approves it. Comirnaty. I wonder if that is an European name only, or the brand name Pfizer chose worldwide. I just knew it by it's scientific/study designation. BNT162b2. I am glad they went with the b2 variant for Phase 3 study vs the b1 variant. B2 has more of the spike protein than B1, which should give it a better chance against mutating strains.

It's good mews that more places on earth will be vaccinating.

EMA recommends first COVID-19 vaccine for authorisation in the EU | European Medicines Agency (EMA)

www.ema.europa.eu

 

[Disney Experience]

One disadvantage of not having a Phase 3 study completed yet on vaccines that a country is getting now, can be shown in the article below. Indonesia will first get China's Sinovac in December. Followed by Novavax, then others. So they will vaccinate health workers first, but then they will vaccinate the rest of the 18-59 year old population in their society hoping to attain a form of herd immunity and avoid giving vaccines to older people.

With goal of herd immunity, Indonesia will give younger people vaccines first

The country is targeting the people who are most mobile due to their jobs, as well as regions with the highest number of coronavirus cases.

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm sure the unions will have a say but legal and PR will have the final word

In order to re-open the parks Disney entered into an agreement with the unions to implement safety protocols including distancing and masks. I have no idea the specifics of the contract but I would assume the union has to bless the removal of those protocols. Since they want more workers to get back to and the parks to succeed the unions will for sure approve as soon as they deem it safe and definitely by the time all of their workers have had access to the vaccine.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Good point. I still wonder if it's costing them *some* business though, because the pool of potential customers is smaller while masks are required.

But no doubt, distancing and limited hours play a major role in hampering revenue.

It would cost them *some* business either way. Those taking the virus seriously, wouldn’t go if masks and distancing weren’t required.

The biggest thing hampering revenue is lack of international travel and lack of convention and group travel. All those school choirs that sing in the candlelight shows for example (not to mention their extended families that have to buy a dining package to get a good seat!)

 

[Disney Experience]

It would cost them *some* business either way. Those taking the virus seriously, wouldn’t go if masks and distancing weren’t required.

The biggest thing hampering revenue is lack of international travel and lack of convention and group travel. All those school choirs that sing in the candlelight shows for example (not to mention their extended families that have to buy a dining package to get a good seat!)

The modeling of all the quantifiable factors would be fun for a quant. Some factors are out of Disney's control, some within.
As a minimum I would speculate that the executives who have to make the decision will have to get feedback from legal, Public Relations, etc. to determine the right choices when different events unfold.

Risk management with lots of dollars at stake. Compliance, financial, strategic, operational, and reputational risks need to be analyzed. Then again, someone with power may just say someday, "Things are looking better, let's relax the Covid-19 mitigation.". Most decisions have to be made without all of the facts available.

 

[GoofGoof]

It would cost them *some* business either way. Those taking the virus seriously, wouldn’t go if masks and distancing weren’t required.

The biggest thing hampering revenue is lack of international travel and lack of convention and group travel. All those school choirs that sing in the candlelight shows for example (not to mention their extended families that have to buy a dining package to get a good seat!)

It‘s possible International Travel becomes possible again by this summer. The top 2 locations for international visitors to WDW are Canada and the UK. If vaccinations are going well in all 3 countries then large scale travel could resume. WDW doesn’t need all International travel to resume. I think some places will take much longer to vaccinate and add back travel.

The convention business isn’t coming back in 2021 to a large extent. Too many unk and lots of corporate budgets already set for 2021 not including that type of business travel. School groups by the fall is possible assuming kids are vaccinated by then.

 

[Disney Experience]

It‘s possible International Travel becomes possible again by this summer. The top 2 locations for international visitors to WDW are Canada and the UK. If vaccinations are going well in all 3 countries then large scale travel could resume. WDW doesn’t need all International travel to resume. I think some places will take much longer to vaccinate and add back travel.

The convention business isn’t coming back in 2021 to a large extent. Too many unk and lots of corporate budgets already set for 2021 not including that type of business travel. School groups by the fall is possible assuming kids are vaccinated by then.

Brazil which has been struggling with Covid-19 is a country that provides in past years a lot of foreign guests to Disneyworld. I have not followed there vaccination plans. But people coming Brazil to visit Disneyworld will likely get vaccinated sooner than the average person in Brazil.

 

[danlb_2000]

Pfizer vaccinated in USA is 272,000 and growing.

December 20, 2020 coronavirus pandemic news

The coronavirus pandemic has brought countries to a standstill. Meanwhile, vaccinations have already started in some countries as cases continue to rise. Follow here for the latest.

www.cnn.com

How dare you post good news here!

 

[GoofGoof]

Brazil which has been struggling with Covid-19 is a country that provides in past years a lot of foreign gusts to Disneyworld. I have not followed there vaccination plans. But people coming Brazil to visit Disneyworld will likely get vaccinated sooner than the average person in Brazil.

Yeah, I left Brazil out because I’m not sure how fast their vaccine program is going. In general Canada and the UK are buying the same vaccines as the US so should be on track for a similar timeline for return to somewhat normal travel. It may take longer for South and Central America, Africa and parts of Asia. I could see International flights return on a country by country basis vs all at once based on the situation in each place.

 

[danlb_2000]

After reading those, wouldn't it be possible that by, say, July 2021 Disney moves to a "masks recommended but not required" policy? This would be compatible with the CDC's "masks recommended" guidance, no?

Since the primary purpose of masks is to prevent an infected person from infecting others, I doubt they would ever make them optional, it would be all or nothing.

 

[Disney Experience]

Yeah, I left Brazil out because I’m not sure how fast their vaccine program is going. In general Canada and the UK are buying the same vaccines as the US so should be on track for a similar timeline for return to somewhat normal travel. It may take longer for South and Central America, Africa and parts of Asia. I could see International flights return on a country by country basis vs all at once based on the situation in each place.

WSJ News Exclusive | Sinovac’s Covid-19 Vaccine Shown Effective in Brazil Trials

Brazil is the first country to complete Phase 3 trials of the Chinese company’s Covid-19 candidate vaccine, with official results due out Wednesday.

www.wsj.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Since the primary purpose of masks is to prevent an infected person from infecting others, I doubt they would ever make them optional, it would be all or nothing.

Do you think they won’t allow masks at all once they are not required or are you saying it won’t be like LEGOLAND where they say masks are recommended but not required?

 

[GoofGoof]

WSJ News Exclusive | Sinovac’s Covid-19 Vaccine Shown Effective in Brazil Trials

Brazil is the first country to complete Phase 3 trials of the Chinese company’s Covid-19 candidate vaccine, with official results due out Wednesday.

www.wsj.com

Interesting. Maybe Brazilian tour groups by the summer too

 

[correcaminos]

I could see masks in steps. Like my zoo. Masks recommended indoors. Masks required indoors. Masks required at all times. Reverse that.

 

[GoofGoof]

Interesting article on the topic of timing. From the article:

When people are fully vaccinated (a week or two after the second dose), but most others aren’t yet, their lives probably shouldn’t change very much, experts say. It will most likely be safer for them to do things like visit the grocery store or the post office. But vaccinated people should still wear masks and avoid large groups and indoor gatherings.

That’s important for both their health and the health of others, experts said. Scientists are waiting to learn if vaccinated people can spread the virus to others. (Early data on transmission seems promising, but vaccines are very unlikely to curb contagiousness entirely.) Also, while early evidence suggests that the first vaccines in the U.S. reduce people’s risk of developing COVID-19 by around 95%, that still means a small fraction could get sick — and as long as the virus is as widespread as it is now, even that small share could be a big number.

“Five percent of a really high number is still a high number, and what you want is 5% of a relatively medium or low number,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, a physician and the dean of the School of Public Health at Brown.“ In an informal survey of 700 epidemiologists by The New York Times, less than a third said they would change their behavior after they were vaccinated; half said they would wait until at least 70% of the population was vaccinated.

Just to run the math 70% is about 230M Americans so if kids get approval before then and another of the 2 phase 3 trial vaccines comes through in January, we could be at that level by May/June timeframe. Doesn‘t mean WDW drops masks by Memorial Day but they could start loosening restrictions by then.

What You Can Do Post-Vaccine, and When

Vaccines are here, bringing hope of the pandemic's end. But even when you get your dose, it won't mean an immediate return to life as you knew it.Scientists cite several reasons for staying masked and cautious as you start your post-vaccine life. Vaccines don't offer perfect protection; we don't...

www.yahoo.com

 

[DCBaker]

 

[willtravel]

After being vaccinated the first time, when do you go for the second?

 

[GoofGoof]

After being vaccinated the first time, when do you go for the second?

Pfizer 21 days later
Moderna 28 days later