Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Tom Morrow]

So that means two things:

- they're anticipating this lasting until May
- Even if it doesn't last that long, the parks will be so scarce, hours will be so scace, that for the first time in forever, the CP staffing is not needed.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Anybody else getting inundated by emails from companies you've done business with (in some cases 5 years ago). I got an email from Avis (I usually go Uber, or if I have to Hertz) telling me the procedures they go through to disinfect the vehicle between drivers. I mean I appreciate them being proactive and all.

But after a 100 emails from various companies. Yeah. I get it.

Now they're trying to sell things. Bless them.

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[Nubs70]

It's not that simple for international college program cast to just fly back to Italy or China...

 

[DisneyCane]

I have a question to pose in all seriousness. What is the "end game" of all the drastic "social distancing" efforts including closing WDW? It only took 6 weeks or so to go from "patient zero" to the current outbreak in Washington State.

Due to the significant number of very mild cases, it is impossible to completely stop the spread. All it takes is one person and we could have a repeat of the same outbreak in September. What then? Shut down the country again?

Do we just stay shut down and bring on a depression until a vaccine is available no sooner than a year from now?

Even if you take China's numbers as accurate, they are still seeing a 10+ new cases a day. Patient zero led to 80,000+ cases there in a few months.

I don't know what the answer is but I'm starting to get the sense that damaging the world economy and disrupting the lives of billions of people is being done with little chance of enough benefit to be worth it. I could be wrong but that's just the way I feel right now.

 

[DuckTalesWooHoo1987]

Your media has been fear mongering for decades.....this is nothing new to western society.
It is how media sells......fear.
This is not limited to Corona.
Playing percentages with humans is plain stupid.
Wake up the entire PLANET knows what is happening and how bad it can get. America is not there, yet. Look what is going on in China and Italy.
Yes irrational behaviour is going on and..........it is a perfectly natural reaction to a GLOBAL PANDEMIC.

Enjoy your weekend everyone. Take care.☺

If "playing percentages with humans is plain stupid" then why do you keep talking about percentages? LOL! Yes the media sells fear but you seem to be the one buying it and not me. How do you not see this? LOL! I'm not afraid in any way. I'm just sad for all the people that think death is at their door. The only thing I see going on in China is a communist country being a communist country.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

View attachment 456174

Based on that - I'd hit Amsterdam first. Dublin next. Ride it out at one of those two places. Call ahead for a table res at Barney's or the Bulldog. Imagine being quarantined at The Bulldog.

 

[Shouldigo12]

I have a question to pose in all seriousness. What is the "end game" of all the drastic "social distancing" efforts including closing WDW? It only took 6 weeks or so to go from "patient zero" to the current outbreak in Washington State.

Due to the significant number of very mild cases, it is impossible to completely stop the spread. All it takes is one person and we could have a repeat of the same outbreak in September. What then? Shut down the country again?

Do we just stay shut down and bring on a depression until a vaccine is available no sooner than a year from now?

Even if you take China's numbers as accurate, they are still seeing a 10+ new cases a day. Patient zero led to 80,000+ cases there in a few months.

I don't know what the answer is but I'm starting to get the sense that damaging the world economy and disrupting the lives of billions of people is being done with little chance of enough benefit to be worth it. I could be wrong but that's just the way I feel right now.

The goal is to slow the spread of the disease so hospitals aren't overwhelmed

 

[Brer Oswald]

Seems like they’re ending the College Program early. I was shocked at first, then someone told me this round ends mid April.

 

[esskay]

I have a question to pose in all seriousness. What is the "end game" of all the drastic "social distancing" efforts including closing WDW? It only took 6 weeks or so to go from "patient zero" to the current outbreak in Washington State.

Due to the significant number of very mild cases, it is impossible to completely stop the spread. All it takes is one person and we could have a repeat of the same outbreak in September. What then? Shut down the country again?

Do we just stay shut down and bring on a depression until a vaccine is available no sooner than a year from now?

Even if you take China's numbers as accurate, they are still seeing a 10+ new cases a day. Patient zero led to 80,000+ cases there in a few months.

I don't know what the answer is but I'm starting to get the sense that damaging the world economy and disrupting the lives of billions of people is being done with little chance of enough benefit to be worth it. I could be wrong but that's just the way I feel right now.

Depends who you listen to as we're all armchair experts.

Take everything I'm about to say (and all the comments telling me I'm an idiot that will inevitably follow) with a pinch of salt as not even the most educated person here can predict the future of this thing.

My view; Most of us are getting it and you cant stop that.

Once we're in a position where a majority have had it and recovered (remember for most people its going to be nothing more serious than a sore throat and cough) it means we've got this "Herd Immunity" that some governments are talking about.

Like with the flu (and yes I know we shouldn't be comparing it too much) a majorty of people have immunity to it. This means day to day contact is significantly less of an issue.

So the theory is, once most people have had it theres little to no harm opening everything up again. Sure, a few will get it but again most likely mild symptoms - its all in the percentages.

The way its going though the parks are not opening at the end of the month. Not a chance.

One tiny little plus side - some heavy plant work on Epcot might be done during the day assuming they can keep construction staffed, so in theory should speed that up.

 

[esskay]

They are sending all CPs home. I will let you make your own conclusions.

Your comment is misleading (intentionally or not) without context.

They're sending the college progam cast member home early. A month earlier than they would have been leaving anyway. Given theres little chance of the park being in any capacity to open before their program ends (and even if it did they wouldn't be needed given how quiet the place will be) its a no brainer to do that.

 

[DisneyCane]

The goal is to slow the spread of the disease so hospitals aren't overwhelmed

I get that. My point is what happens when the same outbreak starts again?

I'd also like to know the data on what percentage of US cases require hospitalization. Also, the actual hospital capacity to handle cases. The fear of overwhelming the hospital system could be overblown.

With swine flu, almost 0.5% required hospitalization and somewhere around 20% of the population was infected and it didn't overwhelm the system.

 

[GoofGoof]

I have a question to pose in all seriousness. What is the "end game" of all the drastic "social distancing" efforts including closing WDW? It only took 6 weeks or so to go from "patient zero" to the current outbreak in Washington State.

Due to the significant number of very mild cases, it is impossible to completely stop the spread. All it takes is one person and we could have a repeat of the same outbreak in September. What then? Shut down the country again?

Do we just stay shut down and bring on a depression until a vaccine is available no sooner than a year from now?

Even if you take China's numbers as accurate, they are still seeing a 10+ new cases a day. Patient zero led to 80,000+ cases there in a few months.

I don't know what the answer is but I'm starting to get the sense that damaging the world economy and disrupting the lives of billions of people is being done with little chance of enough benefit to be worth it. I could be wrong but that's just the way I feel right now.

It’s not about stopping all spread, just slowing it down. If we allow this thing to spiral out of control we will hit a healthcare crisis fast. Its been stated many times but we have limited numbers of hospital beds and ventilators. The end game is keeping the number of seriously ill down below our max capacity. 10 cases a day won’t break the system if we got to that level.

My gut feeling is a vaccine will be available well before a year from now. The timelines used for comparison of similar vaccines were all based on less serious outbreaks and many of the delays are caused by bureaucratic red tape which will mostly be waived for this. Plus whoever develops the vaccine is set to make billions worldwide. Lots of incentives to throw everything at it. I would not be surprised if a vaccine is rolled out by the fall.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

 

[NickMaio]

If "playing percentages with humans is plain stupid" then why do you keep talking about percentages? LOL! Yes the media sells fear but you seem to be the one buying it and not me. How do you not see this? LOL! I'm not afraid in any way. I'm just sad for all the people that think death is at their door. The only thing I see going on in China is a communist country being a communist country.

I am not afraid from the media.
I do not follow social media.
You are using percentages to state the case that everything is fine.......I am throwing out statistics to prove otherwise, there is a BIG difference.
You can LOL all you want. However, when it comes time for a person in your life to need a ventilator and it goes to a younger person you might see the point some of us already know.
Have fun in your glass house.

 

[Brer Oswald]

Your comment is misleading (intentionally or not) without context.

They're sending the college progam cast member home early. A month earlier than they would have been leaving anyway. Given theres little chance of the park being in any capacity to open before their program ends (and even if it did they wouldn't be needed given how quiet the place will be) its a no brainer to do that.

Business wise, it’s a no brainer for the exact reasons you’re stating. Ethics wise, it’s a little scummy if only because they’re being kicked out with no travel arranged. Hopefully that can be rectified.

 

[esskay]

they’re being kicked out with no travel arranged.

Fact or assumption?

I have to ask because this thread is full of people making some pretty broad assumptions about things. Disney isn't about to knock at their door telling them to get out and that they arent their problem anymore.

 

[Brer Oswald]

So that means two things:

- they're anticipating this lasting until May
- Even if it doesn't last that long, the parks will be so scarce, hours will be so scace, that for the first time in forever, the CP staffing is not needed.

This might last till end of April. Not a guarantee, but possible for sure.

 

[DisneyCane]

It’s not about stopping all spread, just slowing it down. If we allow this thing to spiral out of control we will hit a healthcare crisis fast. Its been stated many times but we have limited numbers of hospital beds and ventilators. The end game is keeping the number of seriously ill down below our max capacity. 10 cases a day won’t break the system if we got to that level.

My gut feeling is a vaccine will be available well before a year from now. The timelines used for comparison of similar vaccines were all based on less serious outbreaks and many of the delays are caused by bureaucratic red tape which will mostly be waived for this. Plus whoever develops the vaccine is set to make billions worldwide. Lots of incentives to throw everything at it. I would not be surprised if a vaccine is rolled out by the fall.

The spread is being slowed while the measures are in place. Once you go back to normal it is just going to repeat the same pattern. Then what?

With the vaccine, a big part of the delay is testing. With a vaccine you are giving it to healthy people. It has to be 100% safe otherwise it can do more harm than good. With a treatment for people with an illnesses you can take more risks because they are already sick.

Like I said in my other post. I'd like to see more data to show the real risk of overwhelming hospitals. Maybe it is real or maybe it is overblown. I can't find any data on the percentage of US cases that have required hospitalization. Even if 40%+ of the population is infected, it won't be simultaneously.

 

[Brer Oswald]

Fact or assumption?

I have to ask because this thread is full of people making some pretty broad assumptions about things. Disney isn't about to knock at their door telling them to get out and that they arent their problem anymore.

Assumption based on the word “immediately”, which is why I also said “hopefully they’ll rectify this quickly”.

 

[GoofGoof]

I get that. My point is what happens when the same outbreak starts again?

I'd also like to know the data on what percentage of US cases require hospitalization. Also, the actual hospital capacity to handle cases. The fear of overwhelming the hospital system could be overblown.

With swine flu, almost 0.5% required hospitalization and somewhere around 20% of the population was infected and it didn't overwhelm the system.

Here is the math one person is running:

First opinion: What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers.

This story originally appeared on STAT, a health and medicine website that provides ambitious coverage of the coronavirus. Go here for more stories on the virus. Try STAT Plus for exclusive analysis of biotech, pharma, and the life sciences. Much of the current discourse on — and dismissal of...

www.boston.com