Mark52479
Well-Known Member
yeah in theory they should follow
Will have to wait couple of more weeks I think to know for sure.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Will have to wait couple of more weeks I think to know for sure.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Harris county's (Houston) current testing rate is around 20%. I've actually spoken to someone who still thinks that the Texas numbers are minuscule compared to New York and that there are plenty of hospital beds. They still subscribe to the ideology that "there are plenty of beds so let's all get infected". This same person thinks that we should shoot for 23% infection because people who've had colds are protected by their antibodies. They also think that since "only" 43% is needed for herd immunity, they should shelve production on making a vaccine.
Scary thing is that this person is a science person who claims that the above all come from peer-reviewed studies.
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
I am starting to wonder more and more if a combo of “the virus burning out” and “voluntary mask compliance and group distancing” is actually working in Florida. That’s a promising positivity rate
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
that’s antibody immunity. There are some cautiously optimistic findings that T-Cell immunity may develop as well and last longer then the antibodies
GoofGoof
Premium Member
It’s similar to the flu. That’s why you need to get a flu shot every year. The hope is that with a vaccine you knock down the number of cases enough that there aren’t enough sick people around to start a new outbreak and if a hot spot pops up you isolate people locally before it spreads nationwide. I think Covid will be with us for a long time, but with a vaccine and better treatments it doesn’t have to be life altering.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
So far both the Moderna and Oxford Group‘s vaccines created both an anti-body and T-cell response in their limited trials. If the T-cell theory pans out it may be that future vaccines focus purely on T-cells. Then it may be more like tetanus shots where you get a vaccine and a booster every 5-10 years vs an annual shot.
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
Mears Transportation Has Laid Off More Employees, Including Some at Disney's Magical Express
According to paperwork filed with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Mears Transportation Group laid off an additional 104 employees in July.
www.wdwinfo.com
I thought things weren't that bad.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
That’s just one of the ancillary businesses that relies on WDW for survival. With thousands of hotel rooms shuttered and half the guests at WDW being local (not flying in) there’s not going to be demand for airport shuttles. I imagine taxis and Uber/Lyft are hurting too not to mention all the food places in the airport. Lots of collateral damage.Mears Transportation Has Laid Off More Employees, Including Some at Disney's Magical Express
According to paperwork filed with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Mears Transportation Group laid off an additional 104 employees in July.www.wdwinfo.com
I thought things weren't that bad.
Mears Transportation Has Laid Off More Employees, Including Some at Disney's Magical Express
According to paperwork filed with the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Mears Transportation Group laid off an additional 104 employees in July.www.wdwinfo.com
I thought things weren't that bad.
Do you have a quote of someone in particular so we know what "things" they were talking about?
As much as Mears does ME, that's not all they do. If tourism is down, and people probably aren't keen with taking buses during a pandemic, then it's no wonder that a transportation industry for the greater Orlando area has layoffs.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
They actually said no such thing. But Newsweek published a headline saying that's what they said, and then for some reason every media outlet repeated the headline. Medical Twitter is trying to figure out what that means. Was the CDC statement that confusing (they don't think it was), are all headlines just computers regurgitating nonsense, are media outlets unwilling to be a lone voice, even if they know the headline is wrong? They are concerned because none of the traditional media or Internet platforms took the content and made an appropriate headline.
What the CDC is actually saying. For the purpose of setting Isolation Guidelines, they are confident that recovered COVID patients have immunity for a *minimum* of 3 months. So for patients within this window, there is no need for retests except in the case that they are experiencing COVID symptoms and all other illnesses have been ruled out.
It's only been 8 months, so we don't know maximum yet.
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
Just read posts from @legwand77 and @Dan deesnee
I'm not surprised that layoffs are happening. What I am surprised with is how a few believe things aren't that bad and normal will be returning within the next few months. I honestly believe this is the just the start and things will get worse before getting better.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Thanks for the additional info.
twilight mitsuk
Well-Known Member
Plus no cruise ships sailing
Viruses "burning out" is not a scientific thing. If you're talking about how some viruses become milder over time, it takes a long time for that to happen and the driving mechanism is that the quick, severe, and deadly mutations destroy their hosts too quickly to stay in the population, which is not the case with COVID.
If you're talking herd immunity, we don't know what percentage of the population will need to be immune for herd immunity to be effective with regard to COVID. We're certainly no where near it since the lower estimates are 40% of the population (up to 75%).
That's not what they said.
A person who has recovered from COVID-19 will likely be safe from reinfection for three months, according to updated guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The information marks the first acknowledgement of a defined immunity period for people who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection.
Prior research has shown antibodies from recovered patients will fade over the course of a few months, but federal scientists had not previously said what that means for immunity.
The CDC previously recommended that someone recovered from a COVID-19 infection doesn't need to be tested again for three months so long as that person is asymptomatic, but made clear that any correlation to immunity was still unknown.
The CDC did not make a formal announcement of the findings; rather, the information was included as part of broader guidance about quarantining that was last updated earlier this month.
The science is still weak on this, that is why all the weasel words.
I just don't want people to go around saying how wrong the CDC was if this doesn't hold true. The CDC is making a best guess here at this time and making recommendations based on that best guess.
CDC gives three-month window of immunity after COVID-19 infection
A person who has recovered from COVID-19 will likely be safe from reinfection for three months, according to updated guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
thehill.com
See above. The CDC made no such comparison or got into details about mutations, which drive the ever-changing flu vaccines. And the flu vaccine lasts a long time... for the particular strain it was designed for.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Yeah, I can’t imagine cruises back for a while. Probably until a vaccine. They tried that one in Germany and it didn‘t go great.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
This is the updated guidance that everyone is freaking out about. Someone took the phrase "up to 3 months" and twisted it into "immunity lasting only 3 months."
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Just updating this, since it's been a couple of days. It is now 8/15 and the total for 8/10 went from 22 to 82
7/19 is the high point at 179. 7/24 is at 172, 7/29 is 159. 8/5 is the current end of the 100+ days. I still don't see any signs that deaths are greatly improving, that couldn't also be simply, reporting lag. Prior to this wave, FL was 30-40 range. While 140ish is an improvement over 170, still a ways to go.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
This seems to be a bad sign for colleges in the fall. It’s a small number of total cases but highlights the issue that kids will be kids. They had a party with drinking and no masks and no distancing. It’s going to happen on every campus. I even saw some schools making kids sign a waiver saying they wouldn’t partake in parties or any social gatherings with expulsion as the consequence if they do. At what point is virtual school just easier and better.
www.yahoo.com
Notre Dame sees spike in COVID-19 cases after early reopening of campus
In the week-long span of Aug. 6 to Aug. 14, the university has reported 29 cases.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
In the "good news" department, SalivaDirect (terrible name, BTW) has received FDA Approval. This is the test developed by Yale and being used by the NBA.
It uses saliva, not a brain touching nasal swab
It doesn't require specialized kits, or lab equipment to process the tests (things that run into supply chain issues)
It costs $4 vs $100 per test for materials, so with labor maybe $10 per test.
Which means places like care facilities, prisons, factories, schools, dorms could test people every day for a period of time to quickly identify a majority of COVID positive individuals. Accuracy is on the lower side, 88-94%, which is why multiple tests over a period of time would be necessary, but several "cheap" tests are more affordable than what the option is now. This type of test still probably won't "catch everyone" but it would give contact tracing a place to start and the ability to be more effective, which isn't happening now do to the terrible lag in receiving results.
It uses saliva, not a brain touching nasal swab
It doesn't require specialized kits, or lab equipment to process the tests (things that run into supply chain issues)
It costs $4 vs $100 per test for materials, so with labor maybe $10 per test.
Which means places like care facilities, prisons, factories, schools, dorms could test people every day for a period of time to quickly identify a majority of COVID positive individuals. Accuracy is on the lower side, 88-94%, which is why multiple tests over a period of time would be necessary, but several "cheap" tests are more affordable than what the option is now. This type of test still probably won't "catch everyone" but it would give contact tracing a place to start and the ability to be more effective, which isn't happening now do to the terrible lag in receiving results.
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