Well... that's not data one way or the other, so...
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Well... that's not data one way or the other, so...
But as I understand it, those outbreaks were not connected to the schools.
That positivity rate really likes to hover doesn’t it
I’m losing hope that this 3 month arc thing will apply to areas (ahem Florida) that don’t take Covid seriously.... Florida really needs to reboot... shut it down, start it over, and open the correct way. We won’t ... but we need to. Simplistically we are looking at now losing Halloween, thanksgiving, and Christmas with our families... because we are all social distancing hard core. WE have been doing all we can and making the effort and I’m getting super ed that the masses in Florida have not... and are causing me to potentially not see my family this year. Last time I saw a family member or friend was the end of February.
Update, Aug. 6: A second Elwood student has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to an email sent to parents Wednesday.
The student was in close contact with the student who tested positive earlier in the week. Both attend Elwood Junior Senior High School, which is conducting a week of eLearning this week after at least one staff member tested positive and several others were exposed to the virus.
2 days after starting, an Elwood school will temporarily close due to coronavirus
Elwood Junior Senior High School opened on Thursday but will close for one week of virtual learning after staff tested positive for COVID-19.
www.indystar.com
But when students and teachers show up positive, then the school closes down. The staff and children that were in contact with those who were positive have to quarantine for two weeks. Whether others actually caught the coronavirus from someone at school isn't going to be known until tests are done on those who've been in contact with the positive staff/students.
Even without spreading it in the school -- yet -- staff and students are showing up positive, putting others in jeopardy. And it's very disruptive to open and then close and open and close. This is going to happen over and over again where community spread is still happening. People catch it and go to school. School closes.
carolina_yankee
Well-Known Member
Florida numbers are definitely improving and I hope they continue to do so. They still have a very long way to go before they get off the various quarantine lists from other areas. Spot positivity is showing that it *could* get under 10% and stay there for awhile, but they also have to have fewer than 10 new cases per 100,000 residents on a rolling 7 day average. They are currently at 32 according to COVID Act Now. With a population of 21.4 million (at least according to Google), daily new cases have to be below 2100 for 7 days to achieve that second metric.
With vacation season over and the daily count massively above 2100, I can see why Disney is cutting hours in September. People simply aren't able to come, and it's not worth pulling kids out of school (in person or online) for the risk, the quarantine, and the reduced experience.
With vacation season over and the daily count massively above 2100, I can see why Disney is cutting hours in September. People simply aren't able to come, and it's not worth pulling kids out of school (in person or online) for the risk, the quarantine, and the reduced experience.
The average first time positive is more important than the overall positive rate when it comes to judge how a state is doing recently. The rolling 7 day average was above 15% on first time positives not that long ago in Florida. The current rolling average is a big drop.That positivity rate really likes to hover doesn’t it
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
I'm still waiting for an explanation for the Indiana 7-day rolling positivity rates results. Even in our county alone based on the same days they give the percentage displayed is lower than what my math is giving. I.e. postive cases reported as of 7-31-2020 is displayed as 6.7%. But my math is giving me 7.7% (July 25th-July 31st 25 positive cases, and 321 individuals tested).That positivity rate really likes to hover doesn’t it
Is there a hidden calculation states are using?
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Keep in mind that the 3 month arc applied to areas that all went into some form of stay at home orders during the first month. FL and other areas that are spiking right now are to an extent seeing if they can keep more things open and still follow the arc anyway so it’s basically an experiment to see if a different approach will be better. It’s too early to call right now, but it seems like there may not be an upside down V shape to the curve. It seems to have plateaued a little but the hurricane and closed testing sites skews the results so it’s hard to say for sure. So I think if we get to mid-Sept and FL is still plateauing and on the travel ban lists it will be clear that the less restrictive approach just drags out the outbreak and probably does more harm to the economy than good (not to mention the toll on human life). If by the same time case drop below 2K a day and percent positive is way down then people will be celebrating the approach. It’s a real life experiment with people’s lives on the line which is terribly sad but from an academic perspective it’s fascinating to watch how the economics play out.That positivity rate really likes to hover doesn’t it
That's exactly what I said to my husband! I feel expendable and like a guinea pig!
I am making a goal not to get personal about all of this but the cut in hours affects more than just the park goers. They've changed hours for cast members too and it's sometimes a huge burden. Disney is not being flexible with the cast member hours and they don't care if the cast member's spouse has to work...or if they have a second job. My family for example is losing over $1300 a month (I can't work as much from home due to the children and nobody to watch them and his second job) because Disney changed my husband's schedule that he's had for 8 years
GoofGoof
Premium Member
This highlights why the economics are a lot more complex than people choose to acknowledge and not at all black and white. The going narrative is that we need to open things up and keep them open for the economy. People need to work. That’s not an untrue statement. However, opening too fast and/or staying open could have longer lasting economic impacts. If businesses are open but customers don’t show up due to an outbreak it could have longer lasting economic impacts. Hours are cut, people potentially can’t make ends meet and lots of businesses still go under. In other words it was never as black and white as choosing to open up to save the economy. It may be that long term that has a bigger drag on the economy. Would slowing down in general have lead to a faster decline in cases and potentially a faster recovery post spike? We don’t really know, but using WDW as a proxy for tourism in FL, things don’t look so great despite the emphasis on decisions to help the economy.I am making a goal not to get personal about all of this but the cut in hours affects more than just the park goers. They've changed hours for cast members too and it's sometimes a huge burden. Disney is not being flexible with the cast member hours and they don't care if the cast member's spouse has to work...or if they have a second job. My family for example is losing over $1300 a month (I can't work as much from home due to the children and nobody to watch them and his second job) because Disney changed my husband's schedule that he's had for 8 years
Where can one find the data for first time positive v. succeeding positive broken out as such?
hopemax
Well-Known Member
That is the positivity chart that DCBaker posts every day. There is another one, without it broken out, also published in the daily FL DOH report, but he doesn't post that one.
So for today, the total positive is 13.13%, the new positive is 9.91%
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Poster boy for the anti-mask crowd:
www.yahoo.com
A Florida man has been arrested over claims he spat on a child's face and told him: 'You now have coronavirus'
Jason Copenhaver confronted the boy after the child refused to remove his face mask in a restaurant, the Treasure Island Police Department said.
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
Why no terroristic threat charge this time or assault on a minor? Does Florida not have them?Poster boy for the anti-mask crowd:
A Florida man has been arrested over claims he spat on a child's face and told him: 'You now have coronavirus'
Jason Copenhaver confronted the boy after the child refused to remove his face mask in a restaurant, the Treasure Island Police Department said.
donaldtoo
Well-Known Member
Poster boy for the anti-mask crowd:
A Florida man has been arrested over claims he spat on a child's face and told him: 'You now have coronavirus'
Jason Copenhaver confronted the boy after the child refused to remove his face mask in a restaurant, the Treasure Island Police Department said.
A coupla’ weeks ago, the firm I work for fired a long-time employee for refusing to wear a mask in the office (among other things). Good riddance.
Also, on my way in to the office one morning last week, I saw a window sticker on a truck that said “No more face diapers!”
I thought to myself “No, you should probably always wear one ‘cause I’m bettin’ a lot a’ crap comes outta’ your mouth.”
Buried20KLeague
Well-Known Member
I say this whole thing will be over in about a week.
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