Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[brianstl]

Familiar headline in the US...

Coronavirus Cases Rise in Europe as Youth Hit Beaches and Bars

Young people are letting loose across Europe, fueling a surge in coronavirus infections that is imperiling hard-won gains against the pathogen.

www.wsj.com

How long do people expect other people to sacrifice their freedom?

 

[Andrew C]

How long do people expect other people to sacrifice their freedom?

I would say that ranges...

 

[GoofGoof]

How long do people expect other people to sacrifice their freedom?

 

[Tink242424]

The only hope for herd immunity is a vaccine. In order to achieve herd immunity naturally we would need close to 200 million Americans to be infected. Even if you believe 10X the number of people reported have been infected it would still take several years to reach herd immunity levels at the current infection rate. If you speed up the infection rate to reach it sooner you overwhelm hospitals and this doesn’t even take into account the death toll which could be in the millions. That also assumes that being infected makes you immune permanently. So far there’s no evidence to suggest that. So if immunity only lasts a year or less then some of the people infected in March/April could be infected again this winter starting the count over again. It’s unlikely that we will naturally get to herd immunity any time soon and that path is grim with lots of death and a prolonged economic depression. On the concept of protecting the at risk population, that’s a huge number of people. You are talking about locking away close to half the adult population so that the other half can go about life as usual and not feel restricted. That would be devastating for the economy.

I think the better plan is to ramp up testing and tracing, continue to follow through on masks, social distancing and attempt to limit the number of people infected until we either have better treatment options or ideally a vaccine. As far as the economy goes, we can get 90% of the economy up and running in some fashion with restrictions and the lower community spread is the more people will participate in the parts that are open. Letting the virus run rampant is very bad for the economy. Look at WDW right now. Demand is in the toilet. That’s at least partially due to the fact that FL is a huge hot spot. Less cases, less community spread and a solid plan for testing and attacking hot spots when they pop up is the best thing to make everyone comfortable to participate in the economy. At the end of the day if there are no improvements in treatment and there’s no effective vaccine developed then we will end up with the plan to let the virus rip and learn to live with it, but that should be plan B as a worse case scenario.

I don't disagree that we could reach herd immunity with a vaccine and that would be the preferred method but we don't even know if we can realistically get a vaccine to work as coronavirus's are notoriously hard to get a vaccine for.

We also don't have any real evidence that immunity doesn't last. We know lots of viruses that confer long term immunity so we shouldn't be basing anything off of immunity doesn't last.

My biggest point is that a lot of posts mention that if we just stay home or just wear masks or just whatever for a few weeks we will get rid of the virus. That just isn't going to happen. So at this point we need to just take precautions but go about our life. People are not being selfish for wanting to be with friends and loved ones. It is unrealistic to expect people to spend years apart. And getting the virus isn't a death sentence.

I would just love people to understand that this isn't going away and a rise in cases isn't necessarily a bad thing. What is bad is overwhelming the health care system. So we do need to continue contact tracing and all the other measures we have but even with them you can still get the virus.

 

[Tink242424]

I prescribe medications off-label all the time. But do this when I've seen research to indicate it likely will produce the desired benefit with minimal or at least tolerable side-effects. Many drugs have plenty of good data for off-label use, but they simply don't have the official indication because no drug company has ever bothered to undertake the considerable expense and effort for the approval.

But with hydroxychloriquine, we have such overwhelming evidence from multicenter randomized, double-blinded studies that it does not improve the studied outcomes in COVID-19. I would seriously question the intentions (or clinical competence) of any medical provider who still hypes it. In this case, I'm trusting the openly-published and freely available outcome data on hydroxychloroquine rather than a vague suspicion that there is some kind of behind-the-scenes malfeasance.

I and probably every other medical provider would be thrilled if we were proven wrong on hydroxychloroquine if some newer, and larger studies actually showed some benefit, although we might need to make a little red-faced mea culpa. Nothing wrong with that, no medical provider is going to make perfect predictions every time. One of the things we learn in training is how to admit and grow from our mistakes.

Agree but it is still the physician and the patient that get to make that decision. Not the pharmacist and not the government...

 

[Tink242424]

Who are the people manipulating the hydroxy information for their personal gain?

Did I say that in response to only hydroxy info? No this is with everything. People do this all the time for all data...

 

[MisterPenguin]

My biggest point is that a lot of posts mention that if we just stay home or just wear masks or just whatever for a few weeks we will get rid of the virus. That just isn't going to happen.

Well, yeah, it is. Get the R-naught below 1 and the numbers infected continually decrease until there's barely any more cases. With contact tracing, you isolate the remaining case and the disease is gone. New Zealand did it.

Herd immunity may be anywhere from 40-70% infected and we're no where near there. This means at least a year more of community spread and the economy tanking because people won't voluntarily leave their houses to boost the economy. And business left with a workforce that is out sick.

 

[Tink242424]

How long do people expect other people to sacrifice their freedom?

Exactly!! And for most of the population who will get the virus and recover what is the point anyway?? People aren't going to stay locked away for years...

 

[brianstl]

View attachment 488850

I don’t mean my post in a don’t wear mask or social distance way. I just really want to know how long people really expect other people to suppresss what is basic human nature for most. It is coded in our genetics to be a social species.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Did I say that in response to only hydroxy info? No this is with everything. People do this all the time for all data...

Well if they do it all the time for all data then they're doing it for hydroxy. That is the clear consequence of your statement.

Who's manipulating hydroxy data and for what reason?

 

[October82]

Exactly!! And for most of the population who will get the virus and recover what is the point anyway?? People aren't going to stay locked away for years...

The point is preventing those who won't recover from getting it. This isn't complicated stuff.

 

[SamusAranX]

Well, yeah, it is. Get the R-naught below 1 and the numbers infected continually decrease until there's barely any more cases. With contact tracing, you isolate the remaining case and the disease is gone. New Zealand did it.

Herd immunity may be anywhere from 40-70% infected and we're no where near there. This means at least a year more of community spread and the economy tanking because people won't voluntarily leave their houses to boost the economy. And business left with a workforce that is out sick.

New Zealand is a smaller, island country. To eliminate the virus there like they did, frankly, may not be possible for other nations, barring they close their borders completely. And once they reopen, all bets are off.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don’t mean my post in a don’t wear mask or social distance way. I just really want to know how long people really expect other people to suppresss what is basic human nature for most. It is coded in our genetics to be a social species.

We are connected today in so many ways. You have phones and FaceTime and zoom and a lot of other technology that wasn’t around even a decade ago. It’s very possible to be social without packing a bar with people or cramming into a sports stadium. Life is full of rewarding activities that are very much possible in the temporary new Covid norm and I just can’t understand this concept that if someone can’t do every single thing they want then it’s somehow a lesser existence. I posted the picture as a joke obviously, but there’s a big difference between loss of freedom due to hundreds or years of tyranny, murder and oppression vs not being able to go to the bar or see a a parade at WDW. Just trying to use a little humor to put the concept into perspective.

As far as timing goes...it’s still going to be a while. Our best plan right now is to hold the course and see what happens with the vaccines under development. In 6 months to a year we will know if one of the front runners works and is safe. If that doesn’t pan out then plan B is learn to live with the virus. I see no need to turn to plan B right now because there’s a chance that a vaccine or better treatment won’t come around. That’s IMHO just trying to justify doing what you want. That plan will lead to unnecessary suffering and death and also be a huge drag on the economy.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't disagree that we could reach herd immunity with a vaccine and that would be the preferred method but we don't even know if we can realistically get a vaccine to work as coronavirus's are notoriously hard to get a vaccine for.

We also don't have any real evidence that immunity doesn't last. We know lots of viruses that confer long term immunity so we shouldn't be basing anything off of immunity doesn't last.

My biggest point is that a lot of posts mention that if we just stay home or just wear masks or just whatever for a few weeks we will get rid of the virus. That just isn't going to happen. So at this point we need to just take precautions but go about our life. People are not being selfish for wanting to be with friends and loved ones. It is unrealistic to expect people to spend years apart. And getting the virus isn't a death sentence.

I would just love people to understand that this isn't going away and a rise in cases isn't necessarily a bad thing. What is bad is overwhelming the health care system. So we do need to continue contact tracing and all the other measures we have but even with them you can still get the virus.

As I said above we don’t know if the vaccines will work out or not, but we should attempt to reduce infection and spread for now until we know for sure. There’s no need to spend years apart. It’s possible with masks and distancing to see loved ones on a regular basis right now. The more we reduce community spread the more interaction is possible. A rise in cases has no benefit or positive attribute to it. Less cases is always better. Nobody is saying cases need to go to zero. That’s a stew man argument. The current restrictions are to reduce spread not eliminate the virus.

 

[disneygeek90]

FWIW, I took a test on Thursday and received my negative result yesterday. I took it for precautionary reasons as I'm seeing some friends this weekend and have spent a lot of time in the parks since both UOR and WDW reopened.

 

[SamusAranX]

We are connected today in so many ways. You have phones and FaceTime and zoom and a lot of other technology that wasn’t around even a decade ago. It’s very possible to be social without packing a bar with people or cramming into a sports stadium. Life is full of rewarding activities that are very much possible in the temporary new Covid norm and I just can’t understand this concept that if someone can’t do every single thing they want then it’s somehow a lesser existence. I posted the picture as a joke obviously, but there’s a big difference between loss of freedom due to hundreds or years of tyranny, murder and oppression vs not being able to go to the bar or see a a parade at WDW. Just trying to use a little humor to put the concept into perspective.

As far as timing goes...it’s still going to be a while. Our best plan right now is to hold the course and see what happens with the vaccines under development. In 6 months to a year we will know if one of the front runners works and is safe. If that doesn’t pan out then plan B is learn to live with the virus. I see no need to turn to plan B right now because there’s a chance that a vaccine or better treatment won’t come around. That’s IMHO just trying to justify doing what you want. That plan will lead to unnecessary suffering and death and also be a huge drag on the economy.

Virtual gatherings and meetings can only go so far. They truly cannot replace the physical gatherings and joys of such with families and friend. We are basically being asked to not only social distance now, but not go out at all when absolutely needed. yeah they moved the goal posts again:

K-12 schools and colleges can reopen, but safety should come first, Fauci says | CNN

Dr. Anthony Fauci said Monday safety and testing need to be a priority when determining whether to re-open schools and colleges.

www.cnn.com

“You have to do more than just wear masks and keep social distancing. You have to minimize your contact with as many people as possible," ACCESS Health's Haseltine said.”

for awhile, it was “wear masks and social distance” and we would be able to get back to at least a small normal (family dinners, watching sports with no audience,etc)so that’s what I mean by moving the goal posts.

that’s definitely possible, but for how long? One month? 3 months? 6 months? Who gets to make that determination? What if the virus is minimized to below the transmission RO of >1 people start going back out again, and it spikes up? Do we tell people who are already psychologically worn down from months of no physical time with family and friends, no physical celebrations, no vacations for many, and so on, to do it al over again?

I’m not making the call of what way is the right way; I don’t feel morally or ethically qualified to do so. I don’t know all the answers. And I empathize with the public health decision makers who have to grapple with this. I also will note that I’m not trying to devalue lives; it is awful when people die, and one life lost to covid or any other cause is tragic for those who loved and cherished that person. We all better hope and pray for a vaccine or 2021 will be a long year too

 

[GoofGoof]

FWIW, I took a test on Thursday and received my negative result yesterday. I took it for precautionary reasons as I'm seeing some friends this weekend and have spent a lot of time in the parks since both UOR and WDW reopened.

My father in law did the same thing last week and it came back 2 days later so it does seem they have improved the delays at least in some areas. He was in the Jacksonville area and said he also walked right into the testing center with no wait. Very anecdotal, but it seems like maybe the testing backlog is getting better, at least regionally. I don’t know what Miami is like.

 

[October82]

The current restrictions are to reduce spread not eliminate the virus.

And I would add that the current (and past) restrictions are some of the least severe and hence least effective anywhere in the "free" (i.e. western liberal democracies) world. If we chose a different path, we would all be able to enjoy a version of life that looks far more like normality than we will at any point on our current path.

 

[GoofGoof]

And I would add that the current (and past) restrictions are some of the least severe and hence least effective anywhere in the "free" (i.e. western liberal democracies) world. If we chose a different path, we would all be able to enjoy a version of life that looks far more like normality than we will at any point on our current path.

I think the bare minimum needs to be enough restrictions to keep hospitals from being overrun. We so far have mostly achieved that. If we wanted to have things like physical schools open everywhere it would have been necessary to ramp up restrictions at least regionally to reduce community spread. The other problem is in a lot of places people just aren’t following all of the necessary restrictions. Large parties and group gatherings are common, not everyone wears masks all the time, people who test positive don’t always quarantine, etc... If we actually followed through 100% on the actual restrictions in place it may be enough to significantly reduce community spread without a need for further restrictions. Basically, if people could just make smart decisions on their own we wouldn‘t need the government to spell out what’s not allowed and enforce rules.

 

[disneygeek90]

My father in law did the same thing last week and it came back 2 days later so it does seem they have improved the delays at least in some areas. He was in the Jacksonville area and said he also walked right into the testing center with no wait. Very anecdotal, but it seems like maybe the testing backlog is getting better, at least regionally. I don’t know what Miami is like.

I was at the Orange County Convention center mid day on Thursday and the whole process took about 20-25 mins. Much better than the 3-4 hour horror pictures we were seeing a few weeks ago. I was also somewhat surprised to get my results back in about 70 hours.