News Chapek FIRED, Iger New CEO

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Haven't we been talking about the death of broadcast media and movie theaters for a decade though? Having a quick transition from theaters to Disney+ is important for subscriber retention, so I think this makes a lot of sense. They seem to have made the strategic decision that Disney+ growth is more important to the bottom line than dividends, and we'll see how it goes long term. I agree with that assessment but it is not without risk.

Correct…espn peaked as a money generator in 2009…and they’ve tried to prop us espn+ for years now. That nba contract alone costs a fortune each year to support. Let alone all the others…

The math just doesn’t work.

The problem is - my take - is the value of tv drops significantly when you take the captive audience out of it. Advertisers don’t feel the need to pay as they did from 1960-2010. You don’t have to watch them and get the exposure they want.

At the same time…nobody is paying $100 a month for Disney on demand…and $13 isn’t cutting it.

People want to “cut cable” not to pay Comcast…they don’t want to multiply it by 5x a month and divy it up to every media company.

This all is a common sense thing here - to me.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Agreed-how would that look while they still are not paying out dividends....

Which most Americans - because of lack of experience - don’t realize is a gigantic problem for Disney.

 

[Jrb1979]

Correct…espn peaked as a money generator in 2009…and they’ve tried to prop us espn+ for years now. That nba contract alone costs a fortune each year to support. Let alone all the others…

The math just doesn’t work.

The problem is - my take - is the value of tv drops significantly when you take the captive audience out of it. Advertisers don’t feel the need to pay as they did from 1960-2010. You don’t have to watch them and get the exposure they want.

At the same time…nobody is pay $100 a month for Disney on demand…and $13 isn’t cutting it.

People want to “cut cable” not to pay Comcast…they don’t want to multiply it by 5x a month and divy it up to every media company.

This all is a common sense thing here - to me.

I think what's keeping ESPN and TV alive live sports. There is no way that goes to direct streaming cause nobody is going to pay those prices. NESN is trying out a streaming service and it's $30 a month.

 

[el_super]

You don't give a credit for the stock price less than a month after he starts.

Why not?

If you were going to say that the massive run up in March of 2020 was being spurred by external factors, like enthusiasm for the streaming platform, the affirmation of the pandemic controls being placed on the parks to keep them from bleeding money, and everything OTHER than Bob Chapek, why isn't it fair to point out that external factors are also playing a bigger part in the drop in stock price today?

The street overinflated the stock price due to enthusiasm for Disney+ and frankly it was overpriced. That it came back down, was again due to the street's own realizations and not because of anything Chapek did.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Speaking of sports rights costing a fortune. Disney is now in a three horse race for the rights to the IPL cricket games. Rights are estimated to go for around $7.7 Billion+. TWDC needs cricket if they want to hit those 2024 subscriber targets as India is a key market for them with Disney+Hotstar, but it may need to choose between profitability by 2024 or that 280-300 million subscribers number.

 

[Trauma]

Just in case anyone here likes $Dis at $100 a share it’s time to go shopping.

Personally I think it’s not at the bottom yet, just an FYI.

 

[Jrb1979]

Speaking of sports rights costing a fortune. Disney is now in a three horse race for the rights to the IPL cricket games. Rights are estimated to go for around $7.7 Billion+. TWDC needs cricket if they want to hit those 2024 subscriber targets as India is a key market for them with Disney+Hotstar, but it may need to choose between profitability by 2024 or that 280-300 million subscribers number.

Yes they cost a lot but as of now they have shown that of all things out there live sports is a big draw.

 

[el_super]

If the stock slides down to say $95-97 dollars over the next two weeks?
The market has given you their judgment on him. Same as if it’s flat.

No. This fantasy that the stock price is a referendum on the CEO needs to stop.

Do you know what major brokerage houses do when they don't like the CEO? Ask Elon Musk.

Disney stock price is falling, in part due to concerns over how the street estimated the value of its steaming service (something that has also hit Netflix exceptionally hard) and fears of recession. Gas prices are starting to hurt airline tickets and travel budgets, and that typically is bad news for a theme park operator like Disney.

Having Chapek as a CEO right now, may be seen as a huge benefit, if he is going to be required to start slashing budgets and tightening belts.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No. This fantasy that the stock price is a referendum on the CEO needs to stop.

Do you know what major brokerage houses do when they don't like the CEO? Ask Elon Musk.

Disney stock price is falling, in part due to concerns over how the street estimated the value of its steaming service (something that has also hit Netflix exceptionally hard) and fears of recession. Gas prices are starting to hurt airline tickets and travel budgets, and that typically is bad news for a theme park operator like Disney.

Having Chapek as a CEO right now, may be seen as a huge benefit, if he is going to be requires to start slashing budgets and tightening belts.

I respect your opinion. I don’t think ever having chapek as ceo was a “good thing” for a second.

I also don’t ever believe he would have been made ceo. He may be the biggest score on the worst thing in a long time.

We can agree to disagree.

 

[Jrb1979]

I respect your opinion. I don’t think ever having chapek as ceo was a “good thing” for a second.

I also don’t ever believe he would have been made ceo. He may be the biggest score on the worst thing in a long time.

We can agree to disagree.

Yes he's been bad. You know who doesn't get enough critism the Boy Wonder Josh D'Amaro. He has the position that Chapek came from and he's done nothing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just in case anyone here likes $Dis at $100 a share it’s time to go shopping.

Personally I think it’s not at the bottom yet, just an FYI.

Well it’s been on a fairly predictable pattern in the long term…

It will lose 10-15 over a couple weeks and then gain 7-12 back…then rinse repeat.

And each time it’s “big buy!” With hacks like Jim Cramer.

Supe doesn’t seem to think that long pattern is as indicative of Disney itself. I see it differently. Variety is the spice of life.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes he's been bad. You know who doesn't get enough critism the Boy Wonder Josh D'Amaro. He has the position that Chapek came from and he's done nothing.

Oh I agree.

Serpent oil agent

 

[el_super]

I respect your opinion. I don’t think ever having chapek as ceo was a “good thing” for a second.

And I can respect that... as a personal opinion. It seems perfectly reasonable to just not like the guy and think he's a bad fit. It doesn't require trying to twist the news every time to fit that perspective. Disney's stock isn't doing well because the economy at large isn't doing well. People aren't selling disney stock because the minnie vans are coming back.

 

[Midwest Elitist]

We did it boys (and girls)! Below 100!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And I can respect that... as a personal opinion. It seems perfectly reasonable to just not like the guy and think he's a bad fit. It doesn't require trying to twist the news every time to fit that perspective. Disney's stock isn't doing well because the economy at large isn't doing well. People aren't selling disney stock because the minnie vans are coming back.

It’s not “twisting”…it’s attempting to use knowledge and experience to interpret what we have seen happen.

So my opinion is just that. It comes with experience. But not expert experience.

All the same…a “twist” is believing that they “can’t lie”. As in the board can’t say “support” and fire his incompetent (opinion that happens to be true) next Monday. People believe what a company like Disney says because they can’t separate their emotional attachment from the ways of the planet they live on.
So we can just debate - cordially - and see what option is right…it’s usually something completely different in the end.

 

[mightynine]

Having Chapek as a CEO right now, may be seen as a huge benefit, if he is going to be required to start slashing budgets and tightening belts.

It seems like you're suggesting this is some unique ability that only Chappie can accomplish, which I don't understand. And what have we seen from his leadership so far that shows he's got the chops for AFTER the rough patch?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

This is why it's absurd to say that flicks like Encanto, Turning Red etc. were successful. Encanto flopped at the box office, and was sent to the yawning money pit that is Disney+ - so how much profit did it actually return? Turning Red could have premiered in theaters - but Disney chose to cut its losses and put it on streaming, likely because it, too, would have flopped. And why is the upcoming Pinocchio live-action remake that nobody (with any taste) wanted going directly to Disney+ as well? Take a look at its most recent trailer. Yuck. I wouldn't be surprised if "Disney" doesn't take a harder look at its upcoming film slate, given all the turkeys it's produced of late. (After seeing the trailer for "Strange World", I wouldn't be surprised if it gets dumped on Disney+ too. Completely lackluster with awful-looking characters. "Disney" needs to bring back princesses and talking animals IMO).

I think Disney+ is losing more revenue by poaching their theaters/video sales than it’s earning.

I used to see most Disney movies in the theater, then I’d buy them all on Blu-ray, now there’s no need anymore, just wait a month or two and watch it for free on D+.

So before I would have spent $10 on a movie ticket and $20 on the Blu-ray, now it’s part of my (still reduced) $6 a month subscription. A half dozen movies a year and millions of people and it adds up quick.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think what's keeping ESPN and TV alive live sports. There is no way that goes to direct streaming cause nobody is going to pay those prices. NESN is trying out a streaming service and it's $30 a month.

Correct…but not espn. It’s RSO and the direct media streams that are the way to go. In so many choices…”casual” sports fans are all but gone.

That’s why baseball teams are worth $2,000,000,000 when no one is in the Seats…their ties to the RSO and revenues from ads on those

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think Disney+ is losing more revenue by poaching their theaters/video sales than it’s earning.

I used to see most Disney movies in the theater, then I’d buy them all on Blu-ray, now there’s no need anymore, just wait a month or two and watch it for free on D+.

So before I would have spent $10 on a movie ticket and $20 on the Blu-ray, now it’s part of my (still reduced) $6 a month subscription. A half dozen movies a year and millions of people and it adds up quick.

At some point they’re gonna run into the wall and bleed subscribers

Probably a lot sooner than anyone believes around here.

People took that Bob Iger “brand” stuff too literally…he was trying to get more stock options.

It also hurts their studio business

 

[Tha Realest]

Floor’s now below $100.