Box Office: 'Star Wars' Will Not Beat 'Avatar' Global Record

[Siren]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/force-awakens-avatar-new-star-855065

Star Wars: The Force Awakens[

has been in theaters less than a month but has already more than revived the classic sci-fi franchise with a record-breaking $1.75 billion box-office haul. Disney and Lucasfilm's seventh chapter in the space-opera saga has quickly notched the third-highest box-office gross of all time. And it is now on track to sink James Cameron's 1997 adventure-romance Titanic — which earned $2.19 billion in ticket sales (including $200 million made when the film was re-released in 2012) — for the No. 2 spot.

But the Oscar-winning director looks set to maintain bragging rights: Force Awakens likely won't topple the $2.79 billion Cameron's 2009 fantasy Avatar earned to become the world's top-grossing film. Why? Force isn't as strong in parts of Asia and Latin America, where Star Warsdoesn't have the same legacy as it does in North America and more mature markets. It's also a faster burn, meaning it likely won't stay in theaters as long as Avatar did.

Domestically, Force Awakens already has shot past Avatar 's $760.5 million to become the No. 1 film of all time with more than $815 million in receipts to date. Overseas, analysts say current projections show it will top out at $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion for a payout in the $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion range. (More bullish forecasts say $2.4 billion.) That would include north of $900 million domestically.

"Star Wars: The Force Awakens made its first billion in a record 12 days and has added another $700 million-plus in an additional 14 days. As in all box-office trajectories, the higher the altitude, the tougher it becomes to rack up sales at the kind of breakneck pace as in the beginning of the run," says Rentrak's Paul Dergarabedian.

Adds Dergarabedian: "No matter what, the film is an absolute, all-out blockbuster without peer in terms of the sheer speed at which it has crossed all of these major box-office milestones. With very few box-office frontiers to conquer, including the $1 billion mark in North America, and a penciled-in reservation in the exclusive $2 billion club, if Force Awakens winds up sandwiched between the two biggest movies of all-time, Avatar and Titanic, no one associated with the film will be singing the Jedi blues. They'll be celebrating this dream scenario result."

Avatar, released in late 2009, earned an astounding $2 billion internationally, where it played for months.

A huge question for Force Awakens is China, where it opened Jan. 9 to a record-breaking $53 million. Analysts covering China believe it could ultimately earn $200 million to $300 million in the Middle Kingdom.

Even if it doesn't become the top-grossing film of all time, Wall Street analyst Eric Handler of MKM Partners says Force Awakens is a giant victory for Disney, which paid George Lucas $4 billion for Lucasfilm in order to get its hands on the iconic franchise and hit the restart button.

"It's been a great month for Disney. You have a movie that is going to gross $2.2 billion or $2.3 billion at the box office and you haven't even gotten to home entertainment. And then there's the $600 million in consumer products revenue. And they are building Star Wars Land at Disneyland," Handler says. "It's fueling so much within the Disney eco-structure.

Handler says Force Awakens is already generating huge interest in spinoff Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which hits theaters Dec. 16. Star Wars: Episode VIII opens a little more than five months later on May 26.

"Star Wars mania," he adds, "is running wild."

I thoroughly enjoyed The Force Awakens, it was a good movie but not enough to take down Avatar's global record. Avatar has proven once again that its number are no fluke, technology or otherwise. I never got to see Avatar at the movies, so I can't wait to see the future installments of this upcoming franchise. All of this makes me even more excited for Avatarland.

 

[twebber55]

I thoroughly enjoyed The Force Awakens, it was a good movie but not enough to take down Avatar's global record. Avatar has proven once again that its number are no fluke, technology or otherwise. I never got to see Avatar at the movies, so I can't wait to see the future installments of this upcoming franchise. All of this makes me even more excited for Avatarland.

im one of those people that could care less which movie is the top grossing movie of all time, but avatar beating TFA by ,lets say, 600 million shows you how big it was, and as much respect as TFA gets for its success avatar was actually more successful
im a big believer both lands will be huge successes at WDW

 

[doctornick]

Avatar had a perfect storm of having people see the film multiple times and specifically seeing it in expensive/premium formats because the big selling point was the experience of seeing the film in theaters. This also had the impact on drawing people in to see who who might have otherwise "waited for the DVD".

It would be hard for any movie to replicate that because the uniqueness of why people were seeing Avatar in theaters. It was almost more akin to people riding POTC over and over to enjoy the details and participate in the "experience" than to a typical film.

 

[Siren]

im one of those people that could care less which movie is the top grossing movie of all time, but avatar beating TFA by ,lets say, 600 million shows you how big it was, and as much respect as TFA gets for its success avatar was actually more successful
im a big believer both lands will be huge successes at WDW

Oh absolutely, I can't wait to see both lands. But, at least Avatarland will be here soon -- can't say the same for Star Wars land.

I honestly thought that TFA was going to beat Avatar with ease. Especially with the exclusive 30 day IMAX agreement Disney locked in at all of the movie theaters. And, ticket prices cost way more than they did back in 2009. I am honestly surprised though.

At least, TFA crushed the US domestic box office so the movie is a huge success in spite of not cinching the number one spot.

Avatar had a perfect storm of having people see the film multiple times and specifically seeing it in expensive/premium formats because the big selling point was the experience of seeing the film in theaters. This also had the impact on drawing people in to see who who might have otherwise "waited for the DVD".

It would be hard for any movie to replicate that because the uniqueness of why people were seeing Avatar in theaters. It was almost more akin to people riding POTC over and over to enjoy the details and participate in the "experience" than to a typical film.

From Cinablend:
Why Avatar 2 Has Taken Such An Insanely Long Time

"James Cameron has his own pace."

James Cameron's office in New Zealand -
"It’s a room…which is covered floor to ceiling with images, characters, worlds, settings. It’s the most amazing, breathtaking thing you’ve ever seen. His challenge is to put all of that in a movie."

"Assuming that there are no more delays, Avatar 2 will be released on December 25, 2017, followed by Avatar 3 in December 2018, and Avatar 4 in December 2019."

Anyway, I am making it a point to see Avatar 2 in the theater this time because I just could not get into it at home. So, if people are thinking like me, maybe the sequel will beat Avatar's record!

 

[BrianLo]

Avatar was a global phenomenon whereas Star Wars was a domestic phenomenon, did phenomenally in a few key international markets and did quite well to mediocre in others. That's where the $ discrepancy comes into play.

I'm super excited for this new land, but Star Wars still has the bigger cultural presence and ability to move billion(s) of merchandise 40 years after its inception. Especially when we are discussing building these lands in domestic parks.

Let's not kid ourselves, if the Lucasfilm acquisition had occurred much sooner we would not be having this subforum. So let's treasure the fact the stars aligned and at least concerning WDW 2.5 very major lands are on the way - with some more we don't yet know about.

 

[dagobert]

Avatar was a global phenomenon whereas Star Wars was a domestic phenomenon, did phenomenally in a few key international markets and did quite well to mediocre in others. That's where the $ discrepancy comes into play.

There's another thing that is missed. Back then the Dollar was very weak, at least compared to the Euro. During that time I lived in the US and I got nearly 1.5 US Dollars for one Euro. So a 10 Euro movie ticket converted into a nearly 15 US Dollars ticket.

Today the exhange rate between Dollar and Euro is nearly 1:1, so TFA has a big disadvantage compared to Avatar, at least in Europe.

 

[Siren]

Avatar was a global phenomenon whereas Star Wars was a domestic phenomenon, did phenomenally in a few key international markets and did quite well to mediocre in others. That's where the $ discrepancy comes into play.

I'm super excited for this new land, but Star Wars still has the bigger cultural presence and ability to move billion(s) of merchandise 40 years after its inception. Especially when we are discussing building these lands in domestic parks.

Let's not kid ourselves, if the Lucasfilm acquisition had occurred much sooner we would not be having this subforum. So let's treasure the fact the stars aligned and at least concerning WDW 2.5 very major lands are on the way - with some more we don't yet know about.

The only reason the Lucasfilm acquisition occurred at all is because of Avatar. Disney had been sitting on the Star Wars IP for over two decades -- with nothing more to show for it than Star Tours and Star Wars Weekends.

When Iger made the deal for Avatarland, he was able to use this venture to strategically leverage Lucas into selling Star Wars at a bargain basement price, prior to Avatarland Lucas wouldn't even budge.

 

[wm49rs]

The only reason the Lucasfilm acquisition occurred at all is because of Avatar. Disney had been sitting on the Star Wars IP for over two decades -- with nothing more to show for it than Star Tours and Star Wars Weekends.

When Iger made the deal for Avatarland, he was able to use this venture to strategically leverage Lucas into selling Star Wars at a bargain basement price, prior to Avatarland Lucas wouldn't even budge.

Curious; this article (including quotes from Bob Iger) doesn't mention Avatar at all. But, I guess your spin is an easy one for TWDC employees to buy into....

http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/article...ught-lucasfilm-and-its-plans-for-star-wars#p5

 

[G00fyDad]

The only reason the Lucasfilm acquisition occurred at all is because of Avatar. Disney had been sitting on the Star Wars IP for over two decades -- with nothing more to show for it than Star Tours and Star Wars Weekends.

When Iger made the deal for Avatarland, he was able to use this venture to strategically leverage Lucas into selling Star Wars at a bargain basement price, prior to Avatarland Lucas wouldn't even budge.

What? I've been sitting here staring at this comment of yours for several minutes now trying to make sense of it. No luck. What do you mean Disney sat on the Star Wars IP for over two decades?? Are you seriously trying to tell me that they owned the IP and did nothing with it for 20+ years? You actually believe that? I also find it astounding that you actually believe they were able to "strategically leverage Lucas into selling Star Wars at a bargain basement price". LOL THAT is comedy folks. They didn't strong arm George Lucas into anything.

 

[seascape]

There's another thing that is missed. Back then the Dollar was very weak, at least compared to the Euro. During that time I lived in the US and I got nearly 1.5 US Dollars for one Euro. So a 10 Euro movie ticket converted into a nearly 15 US Dollars ticket.

Today the exhange rate between Dollar and Euro is nearly 1:1, so TFA has a big disadvantage compared to Avatar, at least in Europe.

My question on TFA is will Disney do a short rerelease prior to the next episode so TFA becomes the first movie to reach a billion dollars in North America. It will not reach it this year.

 

[twebber55]

What? I've been sitting here staring at this comment of yours for several minutes now trying to make sense of it. No luck. What do you mean Disney sat on the Star Wars IP for over two decades?? Are you seriously trying to tell me that they owned the IP and did nothing with it for 20+ years? You actually believe that? I also find it astounding that you actually believe they were able to "strategically leverage Lucas into selling Star Wars at a bargain basement price". LOL THAT is comedy folks. They didn't strong arm George Lucas into anything.

Simple really
Disney had theme park rights for 20 years and basically did nothing

 

[G00fyDad]

Simple really
Disney had theme park rights for 20 years and basically did nothing

How do you figure that? Lucas worked with Disney to create an attraction and allowed Star Wars Weekends. They did not have the authorization to create an entire land. For that matter they did not have the rights to create another attraction without Lucasfilm saying so. For people to see Star Tours and Star Wars weekends and assume that translates into the ability to do whatever they want with the IP is insane.

 

[No Name]

im one of those people that could care less which movie is the top grossing movie of all time, but avatar beating TFA by ,lets say, 600 million shows you how big it was, and as much respect as TFA gets for its success avatar was actually more successful
im a big believer both lands will be huge successes at WDW

I have to disagree with that part. I get that avatar was more successful in the theaters, but what about merchandise sales or licensing deals? I have no stats on licensing, but I do know that Avatar made almost nothing in sales outside of the theater. About 6 months after the movie was released, there was about $153 million worth of Avatar merchandise sold. On the other hand, Star Wars brought in $3-5 billion of merchandise sales in this past year. I know the timeframes don't match up and unfortunately I can't find good numbers, but you can see how Star Wars has undoubtedly made far far more than Avatar.

Walt sold $300 million of Davy Crockett merchandise from 5 TV episodes, in a span of 8 months. The highest grossing movie couldn't even do close to that, and no, I did not adjust for inflation. Truly shows how the movie has had no lasting impact.

 

[ScoutN]

McDonald's sells the most hamburgers. Therefore, McDonald's has the best hamburger.

 

[twebber55]

McDonald's sells the most hamburgers. Therefore, McDonald's has the best hamburger.

im not really sure i get this post
the OP linked an article about box office gross and never mentioned quality of either movie
both are/were extremely successful movies

 

[twebber55]

I have to disagree with that part. I get that avatar was more successful in the theaters, but what about merchandise sales or licensing deals? I have no stats on licensing, but I do know that Avatar made almost nothing in sales outside of the theater. About 6 months after the movie was released, there was about $153 million worth of Avatar merchandise sold. On the other hand, Star Wars brought in $3-5 billion of merchandise sales in this past year. I know the timeframes don't match up and unfortunately I can't find good numbers, but you can see how Star Wars has undoubtedly made far far more than Avatar.

Walt sold $300 million of Davy Crockett merchandise from 5 TV episodes, in a span of 8 months. The highest grossing movie couldn't even do close to that, and no, I did not adjust for inflation. Truly shows how the movie has had no lasting impact.

like i mentioned above the OP linked an article about box office, of course star wars is more successful in terms of merch. that still doesnt change box office success

 

[Marlins1]

like i mentioned above the OP linked an article about box office, of course star wars is more successful in terms of merch. that still doesnt change box office success

Correct - Gone With the Wind would be a flop based on merchandise sales. Not saying that Avatar is a great movie but we seem to have some real overkill on this merchandise argument. It won't affect the quality of the land.

 

[G00fyDad]

McDonald's sells the most hamburgers. Therefore, McDonald's has the best hamburger.

As with the movies this is subjective. You like what you like and others like what they like. If someone loves a McDonald's hamburger who is anyone else in the world to say they are not the best hamburger in the world, to that person. I think TFA is FAR better than Avatar, but that is subjective to me. It has no bearing on which is the better movie. What is being discussed is which one made more money, moolah, greenbacks, lettuce, cheddar, etc.

 

[DisneyCane]

From an international perspective, a movie like Avatar will "translate" better. The entire point was the 3D visuals. With a Star Wars movie, the story and the dialog are much more important. It's harder to translate Harrison Ford's performance into Chinese than it is to translate some blue thing flying through a forest.

 

[doctornick]

From an international perspective, a movie like Avatar will "translate" better. The entire point was the 3D visuals. With a Star Wars movie, the story and the dialog are much more important. It's harder to translate Harrison Ford's performance into Chinese than it is to translate some blue thing flying through a forest.

Indeed. I'm under the impression that many action type films tend to do better internationally because the draw is less on the plot/dialogue which may have translation issues. 3D tends to be a bigger portion of international box office than domestic, suggesting that spectacle can be a big factor for success there.

That being said, I'd point out that TFA has I think the 3rd or 4th total non-US box office of all time (i.e. worldwide box office minus domestic), so it's not like it didn't appeal to international audiences at all.