I had forgotten about the pre TFA BTIG downgrade. But what I do remember BTIG doing (and I wonder if this is what upsets The Weatherman more then the downgrade) was the ESPN survey they did.
Basically BTIG said that only 44% of people who have the ESPN/ESPN2 2-fer would keep it if it cost $8 - and only 6% would be willing to pay $20 for it.
Prior to 'Bundlegate', the word was it didn't matter if P&R fluctuated due to the economy, or films did. There was the 'Full Faith And Credit' of the ESPN funds always coming in. No matter what. People had to have their sports, and they had to watch it live. And it had to be in all bundles, so those who could care less for live sports (or the live sports ESPN had to offer) had to help pay for it.
Now with 'bundles' under threat, the mantra is 'It doesn't matter. People need their Sports. And ESPN is the (self-declared) Worldwide Leader. They will pay anything to keep their Sports.
The BTIG survey suggests otherwise. That people DO have a price. And that price isn't sufficient for them to maintain their margins. And since $DIS is neither a Value stock (with that high P/E) or an Income stock (with that small divvy), then it has to sell itself as a Growth stock. And it's hard to see a "Growth" stock grow when it's largest, most stable source of funds is looking at a margin contraction.
(And it needs to be said that the only place ESPN is the 'Worldwide Leader' is College Football. In some parts of the country it is the unquestioned most popular sport. That affluent part of the country north of Blacksburg and east of Happy Valley? Not so much. Up there it's all about the NFL, and they have by far the worst Sunday to Monday package - and that would be true even if they weren't overpaying for it by a laughable margin).
Even if $DIS has far bigger problems, ESPN is still front and center as far as the investment community is concerned. And it's the investors who ultimately decide the value of The Weatherman's stock options...