Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
At this rate, I genuinely think it could hit 2 billion sooner then later.
At this rate, I genuinely think it could hit 2 billion sooner then later.
SUNDAY AM, NEW YEAR’S DAY: While New Year’s Eve is typically a better moviegoing day than Christmas Eve, business was still down yesterday at -27% from Friday for all movies. That’s a similar decline to last weekend’s Friday-to-Christmas Eve (-26%). However, New Year’s Eve made more than Christmas Eve, $27.9M to $22.2M. Moviegoing is expected to be +19% on New Year’s Day today, and there will be an extra cushion in Monday, Jan. 2, as many typically have off in honor of the Sunday holiday. Per our sources, weather wasn’t an issue this weekend.
Disney/20th/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Waterdid $18M yesterday, taking its running total to $400M. Revised 3-day is $63.4M (+2% from last weekend, great), and 4-day is $82.4M, for a new domestic cume by EOD Monday of $440.5M. If those Disney estimates stick, Avatar 2 will be $400K shy of Rogue One‘s running total through its first 18 days. It took Rogue One another two weeks before it crossed the half billion mark stateside, the pic’s final total being $532.1M.
Through end of Sunday, Disney is reporting a $1.37 billion running global total for Avatar 2. Also by Monday, the 3D spectacle will pass the running domestic box office of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($439.6M). By hitting $400M yesterday, Avatar 2 officially becomes the third Disney title to cross that threshold after Black Panther 2 and Doctor Strange 2 for 2022.
Rivals got excited and over-forecasted Avatar 2 for the 3-day and 4-day stretch, believing Saturday would be a $19.6M-$19.8M day. Again, today and Monday could put the James Cameron-directed, Jon Landau-produced sequel back on course to wild money.
I do think we have good evidence the weather impacted Christmas weekend.
Puss in Boots and Black Panther are also up over the Christmas Weekend. Whereas Rogue One did not play that way.
I know we said we wouldn't *really* know this movies potential until January 3rd... well here we are approaching it and I think we're seeing the big upside. The next really good benchmark (after Tuesdays numbers) will be how the movie looks for MLK weekend.
MONDAY AM UPDATE: Sunday came in stronger for Avatar: The Way of Water than Disney expected, grossing a great $24.4M to what was thought to be $21M. That’s the third biggest New Year’s Day haul of all-time after The Force Awakens ($34.3M) and James Cameron’s first Avatar ($25.2M). Avatar 2‘s New Year’s Day was even bigger than that of Spider-Man: No Way Home ($23.1M) last year.
The third weekend of the James Cameron title rises to $66.8M, +6% from its Christmas weekend, with a 4-day of $86.3M. By the end of today, it’s expected that Avatar 2 will pass the $440.9M 18-day total of Rogue One with$444.4M. Why is that such a big deal? Because that 2016 Star Wars prequel has been used as the comp for this mega-tentpole, which was slower out of the gate than tracking initially forecasted. 2016 was the last time that Christmas fell on a Sunday, and New Year’s Day 2017 too.
Avatar 2‘s $24.4M Sunday also bests Rogue One‘s New Year’s Day gross of $16.7M.
Somewhere between No Way Home and Maverick.Welp. The Rogue One comp is done and dusted. Now what?
Cinemascore is an A.
That typically represents a final box office of 3.6 times the opening weekend.
Wonder if IMAX ticket sales and/or IMAX availability would throw that off.
it has already grossed over three times its opening weekend
The MCU has poisoned everyone's brains into thinking that 3.0x legs is as good as it gets.I’m still confused about the people who were saying it was a flop after the first weekend.
Welp. The Rogue One comp is done and dusted. Now what?
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‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Scores Monday January Record With $21M+, 4-Day Rises To $88M, Looks To Best Blumhouse’s ‘M3GAN’ Opening – Tuesday AM Update
'Avatar: The Way Of Water' To Cross $440M At New Year's Weekend Box Officedeadline.com
It has a similar conflict but the way the story plays out is pretty different. Saying Avatar: The Way of Water is the same story as the first movie is like saying Aliens is the same movie as Alien or that Terminator 2 is the same movie as the Terminator. Sure, they share some similarities, but it's the variances that make the sequels interesting!
Avatar: The Way of Water is about family, where the first one was about romance and a colonizer "going Native". The sequel is an ensemble among all of the Sully family, where the first movie really just has one protagonist — Jake Sully. Quaritch is a more complex character in the sequel with him now being trapped in the body of what he hates and him having to wrestle with his feelings for his son Spider.
The sequel also seems to be setting up a more spiritual/mystical conflict with the mystery around Kiri's powers, her parentage and her connection with Eywa.
You must be watching different Hollywood movies than me. A father and husband who isn't a buffoon or a monster is damn near groundbreaking, particularly in a film aimed at the parents, not the kids.The family stuff to me is still very basic in terms of original storytelling. Jake has kids, and he loves them. They want to do adult things but he's protective. They do things anyway and put themselves in danger as a result.
Pretty standard stuff. Not bad, just not anything special.
TUESDAY AM UPDATE: .20th Century Studios/Lightstorm/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water came out of New Year’s weekend on a roll scoring the best January Monday ever with $21.1M, ahead of American Sniper‘s Jan. 19 day back in 2015 of $17.9M. The 4-day run was $88M for the James Cameron directed sequel, -8% from its 4-day Christmas weekend, with a running total of $446.1M, 1% ahead of its comp Rogue One: A Star Wars Story through its first 18 days. It’s also ahead of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s eight weekend running total of $439.5M.
Industry estimates believe that Avatar 2‘s fourth weekend will be between $25M-$30M beating new wide release, Universal/Blumhouse’s PG-13 genre titleM3GAN which is looking at $17M, despite tracking have that film higher in the lower $20Ms. Showtimes start Thursday at 5PM. Young females under 25 are the prime demo.
Avatar 2‘s Monday is well ahead of Rogue One‘s $15.9M January 2 Monday (back in 2017) and 34% ahead of its 4-day of $65.5M. Avatar 2‘s Monday beats the first January Monday of Spider-Man: No Way Home ($7.9M), Force Awakens ($8M) and Last Jedi ($14.2M). Global is at $1.44 billion.
Eywa provides.![]()
‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Scores Monday January Record With $21M+, 4-Day Rises To $88M, Looks To Best Blumhouse’s ‘M3GAN’ Opening – Tuesday AM Update
'Avatar: The Way Of Water' To Cross $440M At New Year's Weekend Box Officedeadline.com
So, I guess Avatar 4 & 5 are being greenlit as we speak...
Since 3 is almost completely filmed, I think it will make it's Dec. 2024 release date.What we know so far:
3. Avatar: The Seed Bearer – December 20, 2024
4. Avatar: The Tulkun Rider – December 18, 2026
5. Avatar: The Quest of Eywa – December 22, 2028
Cameron has been hinting at a possible break for 4 and 5 though. So those dates may change by a year or two.
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