Avatar (the movie) and its Sequels

BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I do think we have good evidence the weather impacted Christmas weekend.

Puss in Boots and Black Panther are also up over the Christmas Weekend. Whereas Rogue One did not play that way.

I know we said we wouldn't *really* know this movies potential until January 3rd... well here we are approaching it and I think we're seeing the big upside. The next really good benchmark (after Tuesdays numbers) will be how the movie looks for MLK weekend.
 
CaptainAmerica

CaptainAmerica

Well-Known Member
China legs.

Screenshot_20230101-110844.png
 
Disney Analyst

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
SUNDAY AM, NEW YEAR’S DAY: While New Year’s Eve is typically a better moviegoing day than Christmas Eve, business was still down yesterday at -27% from Friday for all movies. That’s a similar decline to last weekend’s Friday-to-Christmas Eve (-26%). However, New Year’s Eve made more than Christmas Eve, $27.9M to $22.2M. Moviegoing is expected to be +19% on New Year’s Day today, and there will be an extra cushion in Monday, Jan. 2, as many typically have off in honor of the Sunday holiday. Per our sources, weather wasn’t an issue this weekend.

Disney/20th/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Waterdid $18M yesterday, taking its running total to $400M. Revised 3-day is $63.4M (+2% from last weekend, great), and 4-day is $82.4M, for a new domestic cume by EOD Monday of $440.5M. If those Disney estimates stick, Avatar 2 will be $400K shy of Rogue One‘s running total through its first 18 days. It took Rogue One another two weeks before it crossed the half billion mark stateside, the pic’s final total being $532.1M.

Through end of Sunday, Disney is reporting a $1.37 billion running global total for Avatar 2. Also by Monday, the 3D spectacle will pass the running domestic box office of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($439.6M). By hitting $400M yesterday, Avatar 2 officially becomes the third Disney title to cross that threshold after Black Panther 2 and Doctor Strange 2 for 2022.

Rivals got excited and over-forecasted Avatar 2 for the 3-day and 4-day stretch, believing Saturday would be a $19.6M-$19.8M day. Again, today and Monday could put the James Cameron-directed, Jon Landau-produced sequel back on course to wild money.
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deadline.com

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Scores Monday January Record With $21M+, 4-Day Rises To $88M, Looks To Best Blumhouse’s ‘M3GAN’ Opening – Tuesday AM Update

'Avatar: The Way Of Water' To Cross $440M At New Year's Weekend Box Office
deadline.com
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
BrianLo said:
I do think we have good evidence the weather impacted Christmas weekend.

Puss in Boots and Black Panther are also up over the Christmas Weekend. Whereas Rogue One did not play that way.
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Exactly. From December 22nd to the 26th, basically the entire upper third of the country from Portland, Oregon to Portland, Maine was dealing with horrible snow and ice and record low temps. Blizzards, ice storms, sheltering overnight inside Target, etc. That awful continent-wide weather impacted the box office for all movies, whether they were good or bad.

BrianLo said:
I know we said we wouldn't *really* know this movies potential until January 3rd... well here we are approaching it and I think we're seeing the big upside. The next really good benchmark (after Tuesdays numbers) will be how the movie looks for MLK weekend.
Click to expand...

Yup. Here out West at least, many schools still have a week off this upcoming week. They don't return to class until Monday, January 9th. Don't even get me started on that! 🤣
 
Phroobar

Phroobar

Well-Known Member
Of course, the dominant force at the box office is Avatar: The Way of Water which is up 0.2% from last weekend for a third weekend of $63.4 million. That gives The Way of Water the fourth best third weekend of all time, and the $422 million cume (and with Monday estimates that’s $441 million) means it has already grossed over three times its opening weekend and is ahead of Top Gun: Maverick at the same point in its release ($395 million). Internationally the film grew 4% over last weekend, bumping the global cume to $1.397 billion million. The last time we saw legs like this on a massive winter blockbuster was, appropriately enough, 13 years ago with the release of the first Avatar.

Whether or not the spectacular holds continue, the film has already made a killing, and with the Monday estimates it has passed Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s $440 million domestic cume to become the second highest domestic grosser of 2022. More impressively, The Way of Water is also just days off from becoming 2022’s highest grossing film worldwide, surpassing Top Gun: Maverick’s $1.49 billion cume. The China release helps here, being the film’s largest international market with $153 million so far, while Maverick never got a release in the Middle Kingdom. Even without China, though, Avatar 2 would still be on track to be the year’s topper. It has already broken pandemic-era records in many markets (notably France, its second biggest international market with $95.1 million so far) after less than three weeks of its release, with considerable room for further growth as it shows no sign of slowing down.

www.boxofficemojo.com

‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ Nabs 4th Best 3rd Weekend Ever With $63.4 Million As Overall Box Office Rises In New Year’s Weekend

www.boxofficemojo.com www.boxofficemojo.com
 
Disney Analyst

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
MONDAY AM UPDATE: Sunday came in stronger for Avatar: The Way of Water than Disney expected, grossing a great $24.4M to what was thought to be $21M. That’s the third biggest New Year’s Day haul of all-time after The Force Awakens ($34.3M) and James Cameron’s first Avatar ($25.2M). Avatar 2‘s New Year’s Day was even bigger than that of Spider-Man: No Way Home ($23.1M) last year.

The third weekend of the James Cameron title rises to $66.8M, +6% from its Christmas weekend, with a 4-day of $86.3M. By the end of today, it’s expected that Avatar 2 will pass the $440.9M 18-day total of Rogue One with$444.4M. Why is that such a big deal? Because that 2016 Star Wars prequel has been used as the comp for this mega-tentpole, which was slower out of the gate than tracking initially forecasted. 2016 was the last time that Christmas fell on a Sunday, and New Year’s Day 2017 too.

Avatar 2‘s $24.4M Sunday also bests Rogue One‘s New Year’s Day gross of $16.7M.
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Welp. The Rogue One comp is done and dusted. Now what?


deadline.com

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Scores Monday January Record With $21M+, 4-Day Rises To $88M, Looks To Best Blumhouse’s ‘M3GAN’ Opening – Tuesday AM Update

'Avatar: The Way Of Water' To Cross $440M At New Year's Weekend Box Office
deadline.com
 
Wendy Pleakley

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
Wendy Pleakley

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
Ghost93 said:
It has a similar conflict but the way the story plays out is pretty different. Saying Avatar: The Way of Water is the same story as the first movie is like saying Aliens is the same movie as Alien or that Terminator 2 is the same movie as the Terminator. Sure, they share some similarities, but it's the variances that make the sequels interesting!

Avatar: The Way of Water is about family, where the first one was about romance and a colonizer "going Native". The sequel is an ensemble among all of the Sully family, where the first movie really just has one protagonist — Jake Sully. Quaritch is a more complex character in the sequel with him now being trapped in the body of what he hates and him having to wrestle with his feelings for his son Spider.

The sequel also seems to be setting up a more spiritual/mystical conflict with the mystery around Kiri's powers, her parentage and her connection with Eywa.
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The family stuff to me is still very basic in terms of original storytelling. Jake has kids, and he loves them. They want to do adult things but he's protective. They do things anyway and put themselves in danger as a result.

Pretty standard stuff. Not bad, just not anything special.

Did Quaritch have much conflict due to his situation? I didn't see it, but I did see a late showing and was primarily focused on the spectacle.

The Kiri/Eywa stuff could be interesting if developed.
 
CaptainAmerica

CaptainAmerica

Well-Known Member
Wendy Pleakley said:
The family stuff to me is still very basic in terms of original storytelling. Jake has kids, and he loves them. They want to do adult things but he's protective. They do things anyway and put themselves in danger as a result.

Pretty standard stuff. Not bad, just not anything special.
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You must be watching different Hollywood movies than me. A father and husband who isn't a buffoon or a monster is damn near groundbreaking, particularly in a film aimed at the parents, not the kids.

When Jake gets a bit too aggressive disciplining the kids and Neytiri says "this isn't a squad, it's a family," that was such a wonderful example how good parents lift one another up and compensate for each other's weaknesses.

There was a reason the Bartons felt like such a breath of fresh air in Age of Ultron and this was basically a whole movie set on Hawkeye's farm.
 
Disney Analyst

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
TUESDAY AM UPDATE: .20th Century Studios/Lightstorm/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water came out of New Year’s weekend on a roll scoring the best January Monday ever with $21.1M, ahead of American Sniper‘s Jan. 19 day back in 2015 of $17.9M. The 4-day run was $88M for the James Cameron directed sequel, -8% from its 4-day Christmas weekend, with a running total of $446.1M, 1% ahead of its comp Rogue One: A Star Wars Story through its first 18 days. It’s also ahead of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s eight weekend running total of $439.5M.

Industry estimates believe that Avatar 2‘s fourth weekend will be between $25M-$30M beating new wide release, Universal/Blumhouse’s PG-13 genre titleM3GAN which is looking at $17M, despite tracking have that film higher in the lower $20Ms. Showtimes start Thursday at 5PM. Young females under 25 are the prime demo.

Avatar 2‘s Monday is well ahead of Rogue One‘s $15.9M January 2 Monday (back in 2017) and 34% ahead of its 4-day of $65.5M. Avatar 2‘s Monday beats the first January Monday of Spider-Man: No Way Home ($7.9M), Force Awakens ($8M) and Last Jedi ($14.2M). Global is at $1.44 billion.
Click to expand...

deadline.com

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Scores Monday January Record With $21M+, 4-Day Rises To $88M, Looks To Best Blumhouse’s ‘M3GAN’ Opening – Tuesday AM Update

'Avatar: The Way Of Water' To Cross $440M At New Year's Weekend Box Office
deadline.com
 

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