Autonomous Cars at Disney World..

[GoofGoof]

I have been in many driving situation where I know a self driving car just wouldn't cut it. For example, I can cut across this parking lot and be there quicker, or let me move into this lane early to make things easier since cars are merging ahead... I think that self driving cars only will work well on interstates with clear fresh pavement markings and that's about it. Also there is the "fun" aspect of it lol, a few weeks ago when the weather was nice I test drove the Mazda MX-5 with the manual transmission and I was in automotive heaven, I kid you not.

Don't know what state you live in, but in New Jersey, that's a fine and/or jail time with 2 points on your insurance. That's dangerous.

Working in NJ I can confirm that it's a law hardly ever enforced. Cutting across parking spots in a mall parking lot is very common and dangerous.

Back on topic, I think this highlights why I think fully autonomous cars only work if all of the cars are driverless. There is no way to predict illogical behavior by human drivers. It won't take long for human drivers or pedestrians for that matter to learn how to "game" the autonomous cars. I am smart enough to know not to step in front of a NYC taxi since there's a 50/50 shot the guy runs me over. If it's an autonomous car and I know it's programmed to stop I would be much more likely to step in front of it to cross the road. Same goes for changing lanes while driving. If I need to get over and I know an autonomous car will stop if I cut in front of it I'm much more likely to make that move than cut in front of a human driver. I think it will be hard for the people in autonomous cars in traffic to have their cars continuously stop while bad human drivers and pedestrians cut in front of them.

 

[AEfx]

Car manufacturers are way ahead of the law and ethics discussions that need to happen before this technology goes any further. Over the next year or two you are going to see a lot of additional clamping down of the technology by various authorities because these are discussions that are just starting to happen by those outside the auto industry.

In particular, things like the basic ethics the cars should be programmed with. Who does the on-board computer decide is the priority to keep safe? If an incident is about to happen, does the vehicle make a maneuver guaranteed to keep the driver safe, but could jeopardize other vehicles or pedestrians, or does it avoid third-party damage as much as possible, which may put you at more risk? If it picks in between, how does it do so? What criteria does it use?

These aren't decisions we want car makers making. Until these things are worked out, and regulated, truly automated vehicles are still a fantasy to go mainstream.

 

[danlb_2000]

Working in NJ I can confirm that it's a law hardly ever enforced. Cutting across parking spots in a mall parking lot is very common and dangerous.

Back on topic, I think this highlights why I think fully autonomous cars only work if all of the cars are driverless. There is no way to predict illogical behavior by human drivers. It won't take long for human drivers or pedestrians for that matter to learn how to "game" the autonomous cars. I am smart enough to know not to step in front of a NYC taxi since there's a 50/50 shot the guy runs me over. If it's an autonomous car and I know it's programmed to stop I would be much more likely to step in front of it to cross the road. Same goes for changing lanes while driving. If I need to get over and I know an autonomous car will stop if I cut in front of it I'm much more likely to make that move than cut in front of a human driver. I think it will be hard for the people in autonomous cars in traffic to have their cars continuously stop while bad human drivers and pedestrians cut in front of them.

There is also the question of what traffic laws do the cars follow. For example are they going to always drive the speed limit, because we all know there roads where it would be dangerous to drive the legal speed limit.

 

[lentesta]

There is also the question of what traffic laws do the cars follow. For example are they going to always drive the speed limit, because we all know there roads where it would be dangerous to drive the legal speed limit.

I think this is where the RCID comes in handy. If I understand correctly, it can specify the traffic laws (and thus the behavior) for autonomous vehicles on property.

And that said, most manufacturers have said that they'll accept liability for some undetermined amount of time anyway, for any accidents involving their vehicles' software.

The RCID legal authority is another example of something Disney has that Universal would struggle mightily to replicate. I'm glad Disney's using it in this manner - allowing the testing of advanced technology to improve the guest experience and build a new industry. I

 

[Bocabear]

From what I was told recently they would look more like this:

and they would be adding specific AV traffic lanes for them, so they would not be interacting with other traffic...think automated busses
Still not sure why this would be a better choice than just biting the bullet and putting in a monorail extension...

 

[njDizFan]

I know this is only an opinion and it's going to sound like a declarative statement but.... autonomous vehicles are coming and in the not too far future you will not have a choice to operate your own vehicle. Whether this takes 10 years of 30 years. Self driving cars will be going the way of the horse and buggy. They are dangerous and inefficient.

Look at Ford this quarter. The CEO is under heat from Wall Street to improve margins so they had to cut 1400 jobs. But he actually has foresight and is spending a lot of money on R&D on the changing landscape of cars and car ownership. Wall street(or their board for that matter) doesn't care about the 5-10 year plan they want quarterly earnings. Mark Fields to his credit does not want to be left behind. Under his watch the company had the 2nd best earning ever in 2016 but since the stock price fluxuated the board is having a fit, He is pouring billions into driverless technology and robo-taxis to compete with next decade's market. I think that is a smart move.

 

[rael ramone]

I think this is where the RCID comes in handy. If I understand correctly, it can specify the traffic laws (and thus the behavior) for autonomous vehicles on property.

As scary as autonomous vehicles are in general, this specific point is what concerns me about them at WDW... specifically if RCID were to have any control over *private* vehicles (whether your own or a rental car).

Imagine your car refusing to drive you from your Disney Resort to either one of the parks or Disney Springs, to try to force you to use WDW transportation...

Your own car is in fact the best Fastpass you can have down in the swamps...

 

[danlb_2000]

I know this is only an opinion and it's going to sound like a declarative statement but.... autonomous vehicles are coming and in the not too far future you will not have a choice to operate your own vehicle. Whether this takes 10 years of 30 years. Self driving cars will be going the way of the horse and buggy. They are dangerous and inefficient.

.

I don't see driving you own car being outlawed for the foreseeable future if ever. It's still legal to drive a horse and buggy on a lot if not most roads, it's just the most people prefer not to do it.

 

[ᗩLᘿᑕ ✨ ᗩζᗩᗰ]

From what I was told recently they would look more like this:

and they would be adding specific AV traffic lanes for them, so they would not be interacting with other traffic...think automated busses
Still not sure why this would be a better choice than just biting the bullet and putting in a monorail extension...

Looks like something I'd see in Tomorrowland, on the Axiom, or in The Incredibles.

 

[GoofGoof]

From what I was told recently they would look more like this:

and they would be adding specific AV traffic lanes for them, so they would not be interacting with other traffic...think automated busses
Still not sure why this would be a better choice than just biting the bullet and putting in a monorail extension...

This is exactly what I pictured. Easy to implement to replace parking trams and in certain areas. It's more expensive for longer distances or things like crossing a highway. In limited capacity this seems like a slam dunk and it could eventually be expanded if it's popular and cost efficient.

The monorail expansion isn't happening. It's way too expensive for anything elevated and probably unnecessary. In urban areas with little room at ground level it's necessary to build elevated but not at WDW. A ground level light rail connecting the AK area to EPCOT/DHS and then Disney Springs makes some sense.

 

[GoofGoof]

I know this is only an opinion and it's going to sound like a declarative statement but.... autonomous vehicles are coming and in the not too far future you will not have a choice to operate your own vehicle. Whether this takes 10 years of 30 years. Self driving cars will be going the way of the horse and buggy. They are dangerous and inefficient.

Look at Ford this quarter. The CEO is under heat from Wall Street to improve margins so they had to cut 1400 jobs. But he actually has foresight and is spending a lot of money on R&D on the changing landscape of cars and car ownership. Wall street(or their board for that matter) doesn't care about the 5-10 year plan they want quarterly earnings. Mark Fields to his credit does not want to be left behind. Under his watch the company had the 2nd best earning ever in 2016 but since the stock price fluxuated the board is having a fit, He is pouring billions into driverless technology and robo-taxis to compete with next decade's market. I think that is a smart move.

I don't see that happening in my lifetime or at least my driving years (I'm 40 now). People like driving. Maybe in high congestion areas where carpool lanes exist today they could convert those to autonomous only but driving isn't just commuting it's also a leisure activity. Car enthusiasts would revolt. I don't see a mandate any time in the near or medium term future.

 

[njDizFan]

I don't see that happening in my lifetime or at least my driving years (I'm 40 now). People like driving. Maybe in high congestion areas where carpool lanes exist today they could convert those to autonomous only but driving isn't just commuting it's also a leisure activity. Car enthusiasts would revolt. I don't see a mandate any time in the near or medium term future.

Like most things this will come as soon as economic forces dictate. Meaning it may start with truck drivers( where even partial automation will double the output with half the cost) and then taxi and delivery vehicles. The tech will be ready in years not decades. Once it is good for business it will eventually be deemed good for the safety of the society. Let's bookmark this for 2027.

 

[GoofGoof]

Like most things this will come as soon as economic forces dictate. Meaning it may start with truck drivers( where even partial automation will double the output with half the cost) and then taxi and delivery vehicles. The tech will be ready in years not decades. Once it is good for business it will eventually be deemed good for the safety of the society. Let's bookmark this for 2027.

Partial automation will be a lot more common place in 10 years time. Full autonomous cars without drivers won't be mainstream yet by then and no way they will be mandated or required. I have every intention of still driving my Honda in 10 years so it better not be outlawed

 

[MisterPenguin]

I can't see a ban on human driving for a long long time. Us 'mercans love our freedom vehicles.

However, there will eventually be a huge sea change when insurance premiums for humans are much more than for automated vehicles.

 

[seascape]

A couple of points.

Autonomous cars like taxis would put a huge amount of people out of work many of who are unionized. There will be a fight for sure. You going to wipe out the truck drivers, taxi drivers, bus drivers,etc? Think about how many jobs would be gone.......

Another problem is the auto drive cars being used for explosive cargo delivery. I'll Uber me a car bomb. Also it can be used for any kind of odd or illegal transport.

The tech is not mature enough at the moment and once it is, get ready for a decade or so for laws to change. Honestly I wouldn't mind a self driver on the highway which I think is the most useful place for this tech. Construction would be the biggest hurdle for an autonomous vehicle to over come. I would love to get on I-95 in GA and just sleep for an hour or two on my way to Orlando. Going through Jacksonville FL without driving would scare me.

While I'm on a rant. Electric vehicles. Right now no one is making an EV that will make money, the whole reason the auto companies are doing research and bring cars to market is government regulations. They will simply sell cars at a loss to meet the mandates. A little something to get you going. http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/california-and-western-states/what-is-zev

BTW realize the guys buying $100K Tesla's are getting a $7,500 tax rebate and more in some states. The taxpayers are paying for that so if you are middle income realize you are paying rich guys to run around in their electric toys. I have 3 in my neighborhood of 248 houses and I can tell you the guys who own them don't own them to be green they are just another toy that is trendy right now. One guy parks his Tesla Model S next to his 911 and his 2 other cars.

Another common thought is no one will buy cars they will all be community cars that are autonomous being in use all the time would make them greener then everyone having one. No that won't fly or at least it's a limited idea for big city dwellers. Also the real brain washed think all these cars will be EV's. How do you think WDW would handle 30,000 cars that show up and need to be charge during a week? So far charging stations aren't really out for profit but I'm sure Disney if they had to build all the infrastructure at their hotels and parks would charge you a huge amount. Might draw enough current that a new power plant has to be built. What do you think that plant will run on to make the electric? It won't be solar.

First problem there is do you really want to use a a car that my mistress and myself have been using for the last 45 minutes driving around town? Riding around in a auto drive car is a great place for all sorts of interesting behavior.

Few things to come to mind on this sea change that is supposed to becoming up. I'm not buying it.

You need to read what uber and luff are saying. They both say driverless cars are their future and needed for profitability. Yes jobs will be lost but it's the future, just ask Tesla and the technocrats.

 

[DizArielFan]

Like most things this will come as soon as economic forces dictate. Meaning it may start with truck drivers( where even partial automation will double the output with half the cost) and then taxi and delivery vehicles. The tech will be ready in years not decades. Once it is good for business it will eventually be deemed good for the safety of the society. Let's bookmark this for 2027.

That will never happen (forced autonomous driving)

 

[seascape]

That will never happen (forced autonomous driving)

Forced autonomous driving may never happen but the vast majority of cars will be autonomous without steering wheels in 50 years. The computers, programming and cost will prove much cheaper than owner owned and operated vehicles. Just look at uber for most trips and zip cars. Car ownership is a thing of the past and too expensive in the long run.

 

[Bocabear]

I also suspect that by the time Autonomous cars become the norm, we will have far too much to do on our phones and tablets and interconnected devices to be bothered with actually driving... it is almost that way now...you cannot get through a stop light without having to honk to the driver in front of you who is lodst in a text conversation...I think this will only get worse as technology continues to tether us.

 

[DizArielFan]

Forced autonomous driving may never happen but the vast majority of cars will be autonomous without steering wheels in 50 years. The computers, programming and cost will prove much cheaper than owner owned and operated vehicles. Just look at uber for most trips and zip cars. Car ownership is a thing of the past and too expensive in the long run.

I think that they will be required to have steering wheel and brake pedal at the minimum, in case of software errors etc.

 

[danlb_2000]

I think that they will be required to have steering wheel and brake pedal at the minimum, in case of software errors etc.

What kind of scenario are you thinking of here, a case where the software has a problem and the "driver" needs to step on the break? In a fully autonomous car people aren't going to be paying enough attention to step in if something goes wrong.