I see three logical arguments why it wouldn’t happen (all combined with under 5% of happening). If anything these would “delay” more than “cancel”.
1. COVID-19 leading to massive cuts/overlays impacting imagineering projects. Assuming this project is not yet fully developed. We have precedent here at WDW with the indefinite delay of the Spaceship earth project, Main Street theater, and “Genie” app among others. Westcot and Galaxy’s edge entertainment also come to mind.
2. “PC problems” from Randy Newman’s history to critisms from some on social media of “tokenization” of Splash. This is in my opinion an extreme argument but I wouldn’t doubt it if modern Disney would give this equal credibility to those arguing in favor of keeping Splash. The problem with this line of reasoning is it might just lead to the mothballing of Splash Mountain (And others) altogether until the funds are available for a purpose built attraction, which IMO is even worse. But it’s a calculated risk for those aligning themselves with this argument in hopes of preserving the original Splash.
3. Concerns about “target market” - again Splash is a water ride with large drops not necessarily suited for aexpanded target audience to include young girls. This seems unlikely to sway any opinion, as I’m sure this argument has been vetted though before the DPB announcement.
In my opinion I’d prefer not to indefinitely delay this in the event I think Disney has long given up on Splash Mountain in its current iteration. Though I’d hope/think WDI would at least want to keep both versions operational through Summer/Fall of 2021 assuming there is still a D23 in Anaheim next summer and the 50th at WDW as a “swan song”.
I also would like to see this project completed under the “advisement” of senior imagineering statesman like Tony Baxter in hopes that elements of the original can be tactfully retained. But I do understand these concerns.
