A lower attendance future for WDW?

[Lilofan]

International travelers make up 15% of the travelers to wdw over the year...wealthy or not.

So where do the lions share come from?

If one stays at hotels or eats in restaurants on the I-Drive section from I -Drive to Oak Ridge Rd it feels like 90% of guests are from outside the USA namely UK and Brazil. But there's always the worlds biggest McDonalds location at the intersection of I-Drive and Sand Lake Rd.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Unless you have any evidence of income class demographics at Disney, you really are just guessing.

I’d say all economic classes visit Disney, but few from the bottom 20-40%. And most domestic visitors come from the upper 60% of earners. So I’d estimate they range from middle class (the 40-60th percentile), upper middle class (60-80th percentile), and the upper quintile.

Moving beyond guesses and looking at actual evidence, we see that the average WDW guest is actually a bit ABOVE the middle, with double the median income:

Theme park demographics changing: Higher incomes and more millennials - Theme Park Tribune, theme park news

Theme Park Tribune offers news and reviews of major theme parks in Orlando, California, and beyond, including Disney, Universal, and SeaWorld parks.

www.themeparktribune.com

“The average annual household income for guests at theme parks was $86,000, according to the study. That’s twice the $43,000 that residents in Greater Orlando bring home and way above the $55,775 median annual household income nationwide, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau.”

So the AVERAGE theme park visitor is in the top 40% of earners. So that makes the average visitor upper middle class. (Average... not majority. About half are higher than that, half lower).

But again... so?? You’re implying that “if Disney dares to raise their prices any more, nobody will show up anymore!!!”

But so far... they keep raising prices... and attendance keeps rising! And as I posit in my original post, seems they don’t care if attendance does drop a bit with further cost increases.

ummm...that IS the American middle class in modern numbers. It’s just a bigger number than it was in 1985.
Orlando is not “high earning”. It’s a cute article...but doesn’t change where the crowds come from.

I’m not “guessing”...by the way. I have seen how the sausage is made.

the median incomes never really travel to Disney parks much. But that doesn’t mean the place is, was, or ever will be populated with tens of millions of high earners each year....

so this entire thread is a weather balloon. The concept is to prep the core to “dig deeper” for what they are already buying...not to shrink the clientele to fat cats and whales.

mass destination...not luxury.

lather, rinse, repeat.

 

[Lilofan]

ummm...that IS the American middle class in modern numbers. It’s just a bigger number than it was in 1985.
Orlando is not “high earning”. It’s a cute article...but doesn’t change where the crowds come from.

I’m not “guessing”...by the way. I have seen how the sausage is made.

the median incomes never really travel to Disney parks much. But that doesn’t mean the place is, was, or ever will be populated with tens of millions of high earners each year....

so this entire thread is a weather balloon. The concept is to prep the core to “dig deeper” for what they are already buying...not to shrink the clientele to fat cats and whales.

mass destination...not luxury.

lather, rinse, repeat.

A few I know take out loans to finance their trips to WDW. I just think that's not smart but some don't even think twice about it.

 

[havoc315]

ummm...that IS the American middle class in modern numbers. It’s just a bigger number than it was in 1985.
Orlando is not “high earning”. It’s a cute article...but doesn’t change where the crowds come from.

I’m not “guessing”...by the way. I have seen how the sausage is made.

the median incomes never really travel to Disney parks much. But that doesn’t mean the place is, was, or ever will be populated with tens of millions of high earners each year....

so this entire thread is a weather balloon. The concept is to prep the core to “dig deeper” for what they are already buying...not to shrink the clientele to fat cats and whales.

mass destination...not luxury.

lather, rinse, repeat.

You keep saying luxury. I have not. Ive said they want to concentrate on higher spending guests. The guests that ALREADY go to Disney.

And yes— they are above median earners. Which by definition— puts them ABOVE the middle.

You seem to include “middle” class as 99.5% of Americans. So sure... I agree that 99% of the guests at Disney come from the bottom 99.5% of earners. But so what??

I don’t care what word you use to describe a family in the top 10% of earners at $200,00... I don’t care if you want to call that family “rich” or “affluent” or “upper middle class” or “middle class.”

But that’s the family that spends $10,000 on an annual Disney vacation.
and Disney wants to focus more on that family— get them to increase the $10,000 to $12,000.. add a few more similar families. And they don’t care if they lose some of the families that only spend $800 on a Disney vacation. (Off-site, bagged lunches, so only money spent on Disney is tickets)
Because a family that spends $12,000 is 15 times more profitable than a family that spends $800.
Thus... if they can attract just 1 more $12,000 family at the cost of losing 5 $800 families, that’s a net win for Disney. It’s a huge net win.
If they can get a $12,000 family to spend $13,000 instead— that’s a net win, even if they lose a $800 family.

 

[DavidNoble]

Labor has always been a problem.

They can’t really find it...if we’re Honest.

But as much as the boogeyman of the $15 dollar an hour wage is used to scare the children...if they condition millions of visitors to pay the kinda daily prices they have been conditioning them for...the overhead would still allow for profits.

Are they really having problem finding labor? That was never my experience when I lived in the area. Seemed like everyone in a 20-mile radius worked at WDW. Part of the reason they were able to keep hourly rates so low was the fact that everyone wanted to work at WDW (within reason).

 

[matt9112]

??? I already said domestic.

Again, I don’t get the point. The question is: are people willing to pay Disney prices. And is Disney willing to accept lower attendance with even higher prices.
Now, they have been raising prices for years— and attendance keeps increasing! (Pre-covid).

I think you forget that credit cards exsist.

 

[havoc315]

I think you forget that credit cards exsist.

No... That has no relevance. Credit cards will continue to increase if Disney raises their prices by 5%.
Credit cards won't suddenly cease to exist if Disney continues to raise prices.

I honestly don't understand the argument that you're making? Disney can't raise their prices 1 more penny, because then the majority of Disney visitors will hit their credit limit?

 

[GimpYancIent]

You keep saying luxury. I have not. Ive said they want to concentrate on higher spending guests. The guests that ALREADY go to Disney.

And yes— they are above median earners. Which by definition— puts them ABOVE the middle.

You seem to include “middle” class as 99.5% of Americans. So sure... I agree that 99% of the guests at Disney come from the bottom 99.5% of earners. But so what??

I don’t care what word you use to describe a family in the top 10% of earners at $200,00... I don’t care if you want to call that family “rich” or “affluent” or “upper middle class” or “middle class.”

But that’s the family that spends $10,000 on an annual Disney vacation.
and Disney wants to focus more on that family— get them to increase the $10,000 to $12,000.. add a few more similar families. And they don’t care if they lose some of the families that only spend $800 on a Disney vacation. (Off-site, bagged lunches, so only money spent on Disney is tickets)
Because a family that spends $12,000 is 15 times more profitable than a family that spends $800.
Thus... if they can attract just 1 more $12,000 family at the cost of losing 5 $800 families, that’s a net win for Disney. It’s a huge net win.
If they can get a $12,000 family to spend $13,000 instead— that’s a net win, even if they lose a $800 family.

Very cerebral. The equations that are worked to develop population segments to be focused on. All very nice. The unique thing about Disney, unlike other amusement venues, is it's an icon. Where in many cases over generations it is a goal to go to a Disney property at least once in a life time. Not about money! Some can afford an all top of the line experience some can not but still go to say they went. The costs / expenses / debt are worked out later. From a corporate bean counter point of view I fully understand the calculations but from the guests view its about the experience. Last point that seems to get lost in the discussion is simple, if the experience (regardless of the demographic / financial strata the guests come from) diminishes to the point where it is no longer special, enjoyable, entertaining and fun the guests will just stop coming.

 

[havoc315]

Very cerebral. The equations that are worked to develop population segments to be focused on. All very nice. The unique thing about Disney, unlike other amusement venues, is it's an icon. Where in many cases over generations it is a goal to go to a Disney property at least once in a life time. Not about money! Some can afford an all top of the line experience some can not but still go to say they went. The costs / expenses / debt are worked out later. From a corporate bean counter point of view I fully understand the calculations but from the guests view its about the experience. Last point that seems to get lost in the discussion is simple, if the experience (regardless of the demographic / financial strata the guests come from) diminishes to the point where it is no longer special, enjoyable, entertaining and fun the guests will just stop coming.

But that's the thing -- Not all guests will stop coming at once. If prices mostly increase by 5%, with a reduction in the "cheap guest experience" --- Where the cheap $800 guest no longer gets rope drop, where they no longer get fastpasses, etc... -- Not like the whole world will then stop coming. Some of those cheap $800 guests will stop coming. Some will start spending more than $800. And some will keep spending $800 and accept the lesser experience.

But here is the thing -- If they make the experience worse for the $800 guest -- That's not going to stop the $10,000 guest from showing up.

 

[Lilofan]

Are they really having problem finding labor? That was never my experience when I lived in the area. Seemed like everyone in a 20-mile radius worked at WDW. Part of the reason they were able to keep hourly rates so low was the fact that everyone wanted to work at WDW (within reason).

WDW when I was there on vacation was always advertising help wanted.

 

[seascape]

Most people do not understand average income. The average income number most people use is the medium income which some have pointes out skews the number up because it just takes total income and divides by the number of workers or families. The median income is a better number to use because it is ths number which has 50% of the workers or families above and below. Now Disney and Universal don't care about the bottom 50% but in reality only care about the top 20% also known as the top quintile. Parks like Six Flags and Cedar Fair actually have a median attendance from people at the 65% percentile. That means that half their customers are in the top 35% and half are in the bottom 65%. The idea that any themepark cares about the average consumer is just crazy. They don't and never will. This is the delusion of most people. The vast majority here refuse to believe they are not in the top income group. Median family income is now about 65,000 and all anyone has to do is look at surveys Disney and Universal put out asking about family income to know they don't care about the majority of Americans vacationing at their parks. According to Statista in 2019 only 34% of American Households had incomes of $100,000 or more and only 18.6% of the Households had incomes above $150,000. Face it, most of us are rich while most of the people in the US are poor using the standards of many posters.

 

[Lilofan]

Safety Courtesy Show Efficiency. Those are cast member buzzwords. The reason why lower attendance as the norm will never happen is the efficiency piece will not allow it.

 

[havoc315]

Most people do not understand average income. The average income number most people use is the medium income which some have pointes out skews the number up because it just takes total income and divides by the number of workers or families. The median income is a better number to use because it is ths number which has 50% of the workers or families above and below. Now Disney and Universal don't care about the bottom 50% but in reality only care about the top 20% also known as the top quintile. Parks like Six Flags and Cedar Fair actually have a median attendance from people at the 65% percentile. That means that half their customers are in the top 35% and half are in the bottom 65%. The idea that any themepark cares about the average consumer is just crazy. They don't and never will. This is the delusion of most people. The vast majority here refuse to believe they are not in the top income group. Median family income is now about 65,000 and all anyone has to do is look at surveys Disney and Universal put out asking about family income to know they don't care about the majority of Americans vacationing at their parks. According to Statista in 2019 only 34% of American Households had incomes of $100,000 or more and only 18.6% of the Households had incomes above $150,000. Face it, most of us are rich while most of the people in the US are poor using the standards of many posters.

THIS.

 

[techgeek]

Safety Courtesy Show Efficiency. Those are cast member buzzwords. The reason why lower attendance as the norm will never happen is the efficiency piece will not allow it.

The keys are intended to compliment each other, and are presented in that order for a reason.

Efficiency should be a tool to enable better show, courtesy, and safety... but it should definitely not take priority to the other three keys.

That’s outside the point of this discussion though... Those words might still be the mantra of the front line cast, but I highly doubt they inform the decisions regarding pricing and capacity at the executive level these days. Hard to sort a spreadsheet by ‘show’ or ‘courtesy’.

 

[UNCgolf]

Most people do not understand average income. The average income number most people use is the medium income which some have pointes out skews the number up because it just takes total income and divides by the number of workers or families. The median income is a better number to use because it is ths number which has 50% of the workers or families above and below. Now Disney and Universal don't care about the bottom 50% but in reality only care about the top 20% also known as the top quintile. Parks like Six Flags and Cedar Fair actually have a median attendance from people at the 65% percentile. That means that half their customers are in the top 35% and half are in the bottom 65%. The idea that any themepark cares about the average consumer is just crazy. They don't and never will. This is the delusion of most people. The vast majority here refuse to believe they are not in the top income group. Median family income is now about 65,000 and all anyone has to do is look at surveys Disney and Universal put out asking about family income to know they don't care about the majority of Americans vacationing at their parks. According to Statista in 2019 only 34% of American Households had incomes of $100,000 or more and only 18.6% of the Households had incomes above $150,000. Face it, most of us are rich while most of the people in the US are poor using the standards of many posters.

This is exactly what I was saying.

 

[Lilofan]

The keys are intended to compliment each other, and are presented in that order for a reason.

Efficiency should be a tool to enable better show, courtesy, and safety... but it should definitely not take priority to the other three keys.

That’s outside the point of this discussion though... Those words might still be the mantra of the front line cast, but I highly doubt they inform the decisions regarding pricing and capacity at the executive level these days. Hard to sort a spreadsheet by ‘show’ or ‘courtesy’.

Efficiency is also used to maximize revenue ( ie attendance ). You can't do that with lower attendance.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Efficiency is also used to maximize revenue ( ie attendance ). You can't do that with lower attendance.

Yes you can. Being able to say “sell out” all 4 parks at a lower attendance is probably much better efficiency than the previous model. Disney is able to look at so much data right now it’s insane.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Most people do not understand average income. The average income number most people use is the medium income which some have pointes out skews the number up because it just takes total income and divides by the number of workers or families. The median income is a better number to use because it is ths number which has 50% of the workers or families above and below. Now Disney and Universal don't care about the bottom 50% but in reality only care about the top 20% also known as the top quintile. Parks like Six Flags and Cedar Fair actually have a median attendance from people at the 65% percentile. That means that half their customers are in the top 35% and half are in the bottom 65%. The idea that any themepark cares about the average consumer is just crazy. They don't and never will. This is the delusion of most people. The vast majority here refuse to believe they are not in the top income group. Median family income is now about 65,000 and all anyone has to do is look at surveys Disney and Universal put out asking about family income to know they don't care about the majority of Americans vacationing at their parks. According to Statista in 2019 only 34% of American Households had incomes of $100,000 or more and only 18.6% of the Households had incomes above $150,000. Face it, most of us are rich while most of the people in the US are poor using the standards of many posters.

This seems like a fair assessment, although I would still say that huge cultural shifts don’t occur until the very highest income levels, maybe the top 0.05 percent. Therefore Disney marketing to the “median” middle class vs. the “top 10%” isn’t really going to look all that different.

 

[Lilofan]

Yes you can. Being able to say “sell out” all 4 parks at a lower attendance is probably much better efficiency than the previous model. Disney is able to look at so much data right now it’s insane.

From a food and beverage perspective a location maximizing revenue depends on guest traffic non stop to buy the overpriced burger and fries in a fast food location and or turn as many tables over in a location that is a sit down waiter service. I'm not sold one can do that with " limited attendance " mindset. Merchandise sales depends on the high guest traffic ( ie higher attendance ) . That being said I'm not sold on " limited attendance ". Charging $20-40 per car to park at Epcot with limited attendance? Having an attendance of 60K on NYE and multiply that per guest car and now we are talking of more revenue to satisfy WDW. WDW is not a boutique place and never will be.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Are they really having problem finding labor? That was never my experience when I lived in the area. Seemed like everyone in a 20-mile radius worked at WDW. Part of the reason they were able to keep hourly rates so low was the fact that everyone wanted to work at WDW (within reason).

They have had problems finding labor to increase the staff since the 90’s...definitely since DAK.

sure you can hire enough and flood the place with college kids...but you can’t retain enough to not lose a lot of efficiency and overhead costs.